MovieMan89
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Everything posted by MovieMan89
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How much more can TR likely add OS? Should have at least another 100m dom so hoping 850t ww can happen.
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To be fair to you, your prediction of like a 2.8x multi was infinitely more realistic at the time than the multi that happened in reality.
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Blade Runner has held a lot better than I thought it would honestly. Never though it would touch 3x but might just make it.
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The OW to 10 day multi is 1.73 vs The Dark World and Doctor Strange 1.69 vs 1.8. So maybe it lands near the middle of their final multis.
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TR had the best second weekend drop for an MCU sequel and the 5th best among all MCU films. Every MCU film to go below a 2.6x multi had a second weekend drop between 58-60%.
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A 63m weekend would mean it needs a 2.85x multi off of that to get to 335. Definitely doable with the holiday.
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Thor will definitely make a run for Homecoming DOM if that weekend number pans out. Still way too early though, so won't get too excited yet.
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THORSDAY NUMBERS| THOR-$7M (ASGARD)
MovieMan89 replied to Premium George's topic in Numbers and Data
I think it could hit 60m, but that's still a little over 50%, so I'd say no to under. -
Coco | Pixar / Lee Unkrich | New attraction announced at DCA
MovieMan89 replied to AniNate's topic in Box Office Discussion
The trailer views might not mean a whole lot for a movie like this, I do really worry that the marketing just hasn't been connecting at all with DOM audiences. It just seems like this has generated very little internet or real world buzz from what I can tell. I am concerned about the opening, I feel like even TGD had more awareness and a marketing presence by this point, and we know how that turned out. This desperately needs as good of reviews as it can get going into OW. -
Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018
MovieMan89 replied to YM!'s topic in Box Office Discussion
Solo over IW? Really? I give it like a 10% chance. Can see it beating DP2 if it's well received. Can't see it beating the other 3. -
Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018
MovieMan89 replied to YM!'s topic in Box Office Discussion
I think Spielberg's draw power days are officially over, outside of a big franchise. So I don't have high hopes for RPO at the box office, or at least not to have a big OW. Maybe WOM will be great if the movie delivers. -
Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018
MovieMan89 replied to YM!'s topic in Box Office Discussion
Lots of unusual things with Solo though in terms of an SW release. First time an SW film is being released amidst tons of major competition. The only SW film to have notable competition at all really was AotC, which dealt with Spider-man releasing and overshadowing it only a couple weeks prior. AotC is also the least attended SW film, which is probably not entirely unrelated to the fact that it actually had a huge competitor to deal with. Solo has 4. Solo is the first SW film that has to worry about franchise fatigue actually being a thing, coming off the back of 3 SW films in two and a half years. Solo is the first SW film that won't have the long marketing campaign to really build hype like the franchise usually enjoys, marketing might not even start at all until 2018. Solo is the first SW film where the Force and all the elements that go along with it (i.e. Jedis and Sith and lightsabers) will (likely) be absent. Meaning it could really come off as just any generic action blockbuster with the SW name attached. Finally, Solo has had the most troubled production of any of the films, even switching directors completely a good ways in. Tons of signs point to it being the least successful SW film by a wide margin. Especially staying in that release slot. -
Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018
MovieMan89 replied to YM!'s topic in Box Office Discussion
Knowing about the troubled production has nothing to do with it, I'm just saying it's an indicator we could get a less than stellar final product. Will they get those same people when they just saw TLJ 3-5 months ago? Hell, some of the audience who want to see TLJ may just be getting around to it in value theaters when Solo comes out. I can't see anyway it hits 400 staying where it's at. It is the most susceptible to being cannibalized out of the 5 huge May/June releases. -
Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018
MovieMan89 replied to YM!'s topic in Box Office Discussion
It really makes no sense when the August-September stretch is practically begging for a high profile release, and the May-July stretch is so insanely crowded. -
Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018
MovieMan89 replied to YM!'s topic in Box Office Discussion
I'll go even further and say sub 300 could happen in that release slot if reception is mediocre, which is entirely possible given the production it's had. -
Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018
MovieMan89 replied to YM!'s topic in Box Office Discussion
Maybe so, but my ceiling for Ralph 2 is a little higher than my floor for Grinch, so won't call it impossible. -
Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018
MovieMan89 replied to YM!'s topic in Box Office Discussion
Disney will likely have the highest grossing release of 5 months next year, with the potential for that to go up to 8: February: Black Panther March: A Wrinkle in Time May: Infinity War June: Incredibles 2 (big maybe over JW2) July: Ant-Man and the Wasp August: Christopher Robin (another big maybe, really a crapshoot right now as to the highest grossing release of this month) November: WiR2 (highly unlikely it beats Grinch or FB2, but not impossible) December: Mary Poppins Returns -
They should move this to Labor Day weekend. Been wanting to see a studio put anything of note there for like 3 or 4 years now, and considering how crowded next summer is on the whole along with the delay due to Cruise's injury, gives them a good reason to move it and finally prove that weekend can be viable.