MovieMan89

And I was never on that ship for the record. I have always, always been the one making the most optimistic predictions for the THG franchise in the past. I was one of the very first to say the original would beat New Moon (I said it before the teaser was even released), one of the first to say CF would increase and win the year, and one of the first on the MJ1 over Guardians of the Galaxy bandwagon after the lackluster OW happened. This time it just feels different though...too much has gone wrong and SW hype quite literally seems to be engulfing everything. I don't think 300 can happen for MJ2 without a $115m OW at the very least.

Every weekend thread before December 18th will be a WWW thread. Although I'm not counting out Krampus to be that big 4 quad hit that puts silly ol' SW in its place.

On the subject of TGD, just because it may skew kid heavy doesn't mean it won't be a big hit. This is the Holiday season after all, and Pixar made a mediocre film once before that skewed heavily towards kids and was a huge success (the first Cars). I could still definitely see numbers similar to Cars' $310m adjusted for TGD. And if it does disappoint, then we officially know Star Wars and the powers of Oscar Isaac screwed everything this Holiday.

How did Lawrence help THG get a $150m OW though? She was still relatively unknown by the GA, and reviews of her performance weren't that amazing to make the movie open to those numbers. The first was always going to be a big hit at the very least, though it may have had a Twilight 2.2x mutli or so without J Law and most of the cast and film delivering like it did.

It would have always been bigger than Divergent given the books being way more popular than that, as evidenced by the OW of THG which I doubt had much of anything to do with her. ButI agree that J Law's casting was a stroke of genius and certainly elevated the franchise's WOM and rep for those first two. Can't believe I once championed Steinfeld for the role. But to my defense, I had yet to see Lawrence in a film and Steinfeld was coming off an impressive Oscar nom performance.

Hope you're right, but that would be a mini miracle with a $105m or so OW. It needs immediate great WOM to kick in and have a fantastic hold next weekend. Hoping for that. Or better yet, hopefully it will just go up a lot from early estimates today.

Well I'm certainly hoping the range and estimates go up, but if it hits that 104 low end, then 250 is all I feel safe predicting. Just being realistic unfortunately.

And there was no reason for it not to remain relatively stable after CF managed to actually increase over such a big debut as THG. Again, LG just fucked everything up by making an unpopular decision to split and then not thinking they had to at least convince the doubters with good marketing. MJ1 last year really was like them saying come see this movie just because, we're not even gonna try to persuade you. I still don't know where the hell the marketing was for that movie. In retrospect, I think it may have actually opened far worse than it did except for the fact that it had a relatively barren landscape last Holiday. Thank god they at least threw some marketing into MJ2, since with the competition this year it could have really been a disaster if they did what they did with MJ1. But obviously a lot of the damage to the franchise's rep was already done. I'm guessing a lot of the audience from the first two must have just decided they will wait and see this one at home.

This is just sad and unprecedented for a franchise like this to start so strong and end with such a whimper at the BO. LG really screwed up with the handling of the two films, primarily the handling of the first part which I think is where most of the damage was done. But then again what can be expected these days from a studio that thinks it's a good idea to spend a couple hundred mil on a film like Gods of Egypt? They have clearly had NO CLUE how to handle being a big studio player. Before THG/CF made them blow up they were actually decent at knowing what kind of films to make and how to market them (THG/CF being proof of that). And yes their decision to split the book I think turned a ton of people off, even the fans. It worked out way better than I ever thought it would quality-wise, but I don't think that matters so much because people just weren't ever on board with the idea. Still I can't believe this one may have to claw and scratch its way to a 250m finish. Dammit.

Watched the trailer, and man does it look just as unnecessary as it sounded. Can't believe how shoddy the CGI overall looks too, given SWATH was rather impressive in that aspect. And speaking of SWATH, that movie did at least manage to have kick ass trailers. Something it doesn't look like this will be replicating.

I think they are killing it with the marketing so far, trailer looks exactly like I would expect a sequel to Zoolander to be. I am shocked to say this, but this may end up finally being a worthwhile sequel to a modern comedy classic. Lol at Cumberbatch.

Shame.

MJ2: 142m The Night Before: 15m Secret in Their Eyes: 4.8m

And finally the big one... God of Christianity Tagline: There Can Only Be One Co directed by Mel Gibson and Kirk Cameron.

When did Ant Man go all Egyptian deity on us?

Why is he so tiny on the poster!?! This marketing is a literal what the fuck.

Whatever the big hits are, I must say 2016's mega bombs already appear crystal clear: Gods of Egypt, The Huntsman, Warcraft, and Tarzan.

Actually it pretty much is though. Unless it goes above 205 or so, it is still easily the least attended Bond domestically since 1989. That is all I've ever said about it, and if it finishes below that as is likely I will continue to say that about it because facts don't lie.

The data has been supporting me though. For my initial 175-180 finish range I figured it would drop around 55% for the second weekend, and it held not even 3% better. Woohoo. Hardly enough for me to adjust that range 25m+ higher. Remember, this movie is done grossing 12/18. It can make maybe another 10 after that. And even if it reaches QoS's 195m adjusted, it is still a big disappointment DOM just like QoS always was.

It would have to be a Blind Side sized hit before it had any shot at all for big Oscar noms. It may surprise and pull like 100m, but I'm sure it wouldn't do better than that.

Deadpool vs Zoolander is going to depend on quality I say. Whichever one most delivers will do better in the end. Deadpool will open to more either way though, because of the nature of a CBM.

It does lead to meaningful conclusions. It highlights that its late legs may be even worse than QoS. Its Thanksgiving hold comes later in its run so it's not as useful as it was for QoS, because it can't take advantage of the bigger grosses that are natural to a third weekend opposed to a fourth. Same will go for its Xmas and New Year holds. What it all means is that a multi much higher than 2.6x is unlikely, unless it gives us like a sub 45% hold this weekend.

Nothing says epic like basic rhyming phrases while some shitty teen pop song plays.

Yes, meaning Spectre is definitely going below QoS third weekend gross. But then above QoS 4th weekend gross. But then below QoS 5th weekend gross.

SW being sold out is more likely to help the family friendly movies than ones like this, imo. TGD could get nice overflows from SW. I think Joy, Daddy's Home, TGD, and maybe Alvin or Concussion are the movies that can co-exist with SW. I think everything else in theaters between 12/18 and 1/8 is toast