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peludo

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  1. peludo
    Pure coincidence. It is just that although I think it is a masterpiece, there are another 11 films which I like even more
  2. peludo
    My list:
  3. peludo
    IMO, it is another SH film. Nothing else. Some friends who do not care about BO said me the same: an entertaining film, but nothing special. I think it is better than 2017 MCU films, for example, but not the best of the whole MCU. Not even close.
  4. peludo
    DH2 had one of the most favorable ER ever But I agree that DH2 deserves to be over TLJ (even although I hate the word deserve in terms of BO)
  5. peludo
    Sure, but you have to take into account the 3D factor. Are you entirely convinced that people will pay again the overcharge of 3D? According InsideKino: Average ticket price in Germany (2009): €6.67 Average ticket price of Avatar: €10.14=€114m/11.29 million admissions Average ticket price in Germany (2017): €8.63 Avatar tickets were a 52% higher than average tickets in Germany. That is a huge advantage that I do not know if it will be repeated. Sure that there have been positive inflation in most countries during these years, and it can compensate some drops because lower attendance and worse ER, but I am not so sure that people will return to watch this in 3D so massively as they did in 2009-2011 period.
  6. peludo
    No, attendance is a bit lower (we are not still completely recovered of economical crash), but it is in a similar range than in 2009: a bit more than 100 million admissions in 2017 and 110 million in 2009. But we have this: Average ticket price of Avatar in Spain: €77m/9.5m = €8.10 Average ticket price of March 9-11 weekend: €6.67 Taking into account the incredible 3D ratio of Avatar (which I do not think will be repeated), inflation is close to 0 relative to 2009. I guess Spain is a special case. But sincerely, I do not think that what Avatar did can be repeated with the sequels. 2b-2.5b (always asuming that China can make a 35-40% of that amount) is a reasonable range.
  7. peludo
    I will never say there is a 0% chance in BO. You never know what can happen. But I would not count with 9.5 million admissions in Spain again, for example. If I had to bet, I would say something like 5 or 6 million admissions. And yes, ER will be a problem for A2, although today the gap is not as big as it has been in recent years. Today, eurozone would drop about a 14% relative to the original gross. For example, the $110m that Avatar did in Spain today would mean $95m.
  8. peludo
    One thing is to do not understand why Avatar was so successful (my case), and another one is make an absurd lowballing prediction. China alone guarantees the amount you say (I think it will be even bigger than $600m there). First part was doped by 3D and the sequels will be doped by China craziness, which will compensate the more than probable big drop in admissions in Europe.
  9. peludo
    Sure. Thank you very much for the explanation. It is obvious that we know nothing about Indian market outside there. I'll try to get true data the next time
  10. peludo
    Wow. That means that most of sources have been wrong for a long time: https://www.google.es/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2014/09/03/bollywood-indias-film-industry-by-the-numbers-infographic/amp/ https://www.google.es/amp/wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/companies/india-s-box-office-growth-runs-into-a-screen-problem-116011801209_1.html http://greenash.net.au/thoughts/2011/07/world-domination-by-box-office-cinema-admissions/ Why do you think there is a so big gap between sources? The general feeling outside India is that they usually go to see movies and if the 0.98 billion data is true, it means less than 1 ticket per person and year. And why they would produce over 1,500 films per year with a so low ratio of moviegoers? Something does not fit... 980 million admissions does not seem an impressive data taking into account the size of the country, production and the Bollywood fame. Just questioning, of course. I am not saying that the 0.98b data is wrong. It is just that it seems a bit strange.
  11. peludo
    My top 10 is changing a bit, but my favorite film is still the same than in previous lists. But one can prefer a film over another one today and change tomorrow that opinion. There is nothing wrong about that.
  12. peludo
    Well, I still have not finished my list, but yes, it is a strong candidate to make get into it. It is a very good movie.
  13. peludo
    Never underestimate Kevin Feige...
  14. peludo
    30 films FYC (some of them probably not very well known films because not being from HLW): The grapes of wrath (1940) To have and have not (1944) The quiet man (1952) The killing (1956) Plácido (1961) One, two, three (1961) The man who shot Liberty Valance (1962) Ryan's daughter (1970) Murder by death (1976) The Deer Hunter (1978) Alien (1979) Once upon a time in America (1984) Die Hard (1988) Grave of the fireflies (1988) Manhattan murder mystery (1993) Groundhog Day (1993) Heat (1995) Le dîner de cons (The dinner game) (1998) Los lunes al sol (Mondays in the sun) (2002) Big Fish (2003) Crash (2004) A history of violence (2005) Match point (2005) El secreto de sus ojos (The secret in their eyes) (2009) Celda 211 (Cell 211) (2009) Drive (2011) The perks of being a wallflower (2012) Truman (2015) Arrival (2016) Your name (2017)
  15. peludo
    I asume that 0.5A means $1.394b. With that premise and asuming that Avatar 2 will be released in December 2020, I think that there are several contenders: Infinity War and Avengers 4 (IMO, both are close to be locked) Jurassic World 2 (it has a chance since I think it can explode in China and compensate the probable drops in the rest of the world) The Lion King (B&B nearly did 0.5A, and TLK is the most beloved Disney classic ever. This can be VERY big) Toy Story 4 (I see it hard, but China has started to love Pixar) Star Wars IX (It will rebound from SW8 for sure) Frozen 2 Fast & Furious 9 Minions 2 Some still untitled Marvel film And I do not know if a Chinese film could reach that high during next 33 months. It seems too high. It would mean a $500m jump from current top grosser, but who knows...
  16. peludo
    I mean the same range. Similar amounts. I am not trying to start a Marvel vs DC war. That is absurd, annoying, tiring... If you follow a bit the Chinese market you easily see that it is always the same: 90-120 million for EVERY SH film, excepting Avengers, which are able to double that amount. I get that some of you are really interested in showing how strong BP is everywhere. But I would like to see some of you here when BP run is over to talk about China BO, not just because the film you support. The truth is that in China, Black Panther is another one SH film, nothing special. Is it a good result? Sure. Is it an amazing result? No.
  17. peludo
    Those are the same amounts that DCU did with BvS, Wonder Woman or Justice League
  18. peludo
    There is nothing impressive to make more than Star Wars in China. A dog's purpose did more than TLJ. Maybe the expectations of BP were lower at the beginning, but at the end the result is average for MCU. A good result (there is not doubt about it), but nothing impressive.
  19. peludo
    It would be extraordinary if it had reached 150, for example. I do not see nothing special in making 125. Ant-Man already did $105m 3 years ago. And Dr. Strange $110m. It is a standard run for a MCU film.
  20. peludo
    During last 3-4 years, EVERY SH film (MCU, DCU, X-Men) makes between 600 and 800 million Yuan (about 95-125 million dollar), excepting Avengers films, which are able to round 200-230 million dollar. BP result is not excellent, not bad. It is standard. Relative to HLW films, China loves other franchises like Transformers or Furious. Last year TF5 did 235 million and F8 over 400. And that is right that Pacific Rim 2 (or Bumblebee) because its similarities with TF could make big numbers, although not 500m-big like recent local blockbusters.
  21. peludo
    Not yet
  22. peludo
    Avengers films are which make bigger numbers. Age of Ultron did 1.46b Yuan ($230m today, $240m in 2015) Civil War did 1.25b Yuan ($196m today, $190 in 2016) Inifnity War should at least be at the same level. If it explodes to a higher level is the real question.
  23. peludo
    An 8.0 is a bad rating. Monster Hunt 2 has had a 8.1 and even having the entire CNY week it has dropped very quickly.
  24. peludo
    $100m is fine for sure. Some weeks ago it was being said that this would be lucky to make half of that. But the problem is that it is not the same to make $100m opening to $30m than opening to $70m. The WoM is a bad signal for upcoming sequels (in China).
  25. peludo
    Even more: DC2 ranks #3, Operation Red Sea #4 and Monster Hunt 2 ranks #8 all time. I know that is not comparable since the CBO is still developing, but right now it is like if US had released Titanic, Jurassic World and Rogue One the same day...
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