peludo

I am conscious and it is logical that IW devours everything, but "Us and them" is at 77m Yuan OD presales and it is being released within 2 days. Maybe IW's entry has slowed down the rhythm of presales for this local film? Can we still expect big data from it?

I guess you mean OS. It is early to say. According first data, the chance exists, but let's see the OW. This could be way more frontloaded than previous entries. And to reach that amount it will be needed at least than 300 million in China. Something likely, but still not locked.

ER is a bit worse than in 2015. The last time I checked it (maybe 3 weeks ago), AoU would had done today about 920-925. IW has few excuses to not match that amount. The target should be, at least, the billion.

$300m seem possible, even probable. But I think it is early to say if it can go higher than that. Maybe others who know more about CBO can give a more accurate data.

Yes

I have not played for a long time... I am IN

Sure. The debate has started since IW will probably need what TFA did on the OW to beat the WW OW (asuming $260m OW DOM).

You are right Ultron opened to $223.4m OS everywhere excepting China and Russia (BOM Figures). There are not info for every country for Civil War. The data you say about SK nearly happened with Ultron: Ultron OW in SK: $23.1m TFA total in SK: $24.1m On the other side, you have a similar example in Germany with a similar size: Ultron total in Germany: $31.2m TFA OW in Germany: $27.2m What is enormous in Europe is average in Asia+LA, and viceversa. With a bit worse ER than in 2015 I find difficult IW can manage a TFA opening OS. Never say never, but I find it tough. Anyway, it will be a really exciting weekend to follow.

That is the point. IMO, TFA opening in UK was even more impressive than in USA. And since 2015, UK has been hit by Brexit, which makes harder to make so big openings. Star Wars is way more friendly and accepted in most European countries than SH films. Asia and LA have to make absurd numbers to compensate the drop in Europe relative to TFA OS opening.

DOM: 230 OW / 525 Total OS-China: 250 OW (27-29th April) / 750 Total China: 180 OW / 300 Total WW: 1.575b (525 + 1.05b)

If IW manages the OW DOM record with, let's say, $260m, it would need a bit more than $280m to break the OW WW record. DH2 and TFA are the only films which have done it. DH2 did $314m and with way better ER than now. And TFA, with $281m, set ridiculous records, with 4 countries over $20m OW and one of them over $50m (UK). Another big openers (without China): Both F7 and F8 opened to $250m Ultron $201m TA $185m Civil War $200m JW $217m Ultron and CW are the best possible references. I do not say it is impossible because this is a really special film, but it needs some shocking openings in European countries to reach it (Asia and Latin America will set records for sure, but I am not so sure with Europe). It needs to jump a 40% relative to Ultron opening... That is a huge jump. Said this, I think the OW WW record figure is absurd if you can not compare the same markets. I would not be too worried about this. The disadvantage for not having China opening (possible 150-180m opening expected) is enormous.

Thursday: $46.5m Friday: $58.5m ($105m OD) Saturday: $72.5m Sunday: $56.0m OW: $233.5m

Beyond JC, it is obvious you love Ghibli too. I am pleasantly surprised to see Spirited Away on top. I have it at #10. It is a MAGICAL film.

I do not exclude anything. In fact I think it is more probable to make over 300 than under 200. But if I had to bet, I would say it makes something in the middle. Probably something like 250-275. Btw, it is absolutely true that Coco did way more than expectations, but I do not think BP did anything special in China. Maybe some people were expecting here to be lower than usual MCU flicks, but the reality is that it has done the same than every MCU film since IM3. If I am not wrong, Ant-Man did a similar result in local currency 3 years ago, for example.

Not too far from Ultron's figures. In China, openings are becoming bigger and legs lower. Ultron opened to $155m and finished with $240m. The difference is that Ultron had a 6-day OW (Tuesday-Sunday) and IW is having a 3-day OW. But at the end, the result would be the same. Unless IW explodes, SH genre has been pretty stable in China along last 4 years: 200-250 for Avengers films (I include Civil War here) and 100-125 for the rest of films.

ROTK did 732 without China. Over Ultron and F8 too

13th-15th April: 1. Campeones (local film): €2,011,276 (+2%) - 2nd - €4,737,414 cume 2. Rampage: €1,094,758 - NEW 3. Ready Player One: €693,049 (-44%) - 3rd - €5,644,600 cume 4. Peter Rabbit: €491,383 (-44%) - 4th - €5,977,201 cume 5. Crooked house: €391,308 - NEW "Campeones" has increased relative to OW and the WOM seems very good. Even with IW and other possible strong competitors it is hard to say where it can finish, even more with Fiesta del Cine coming within 3 weeks. It seems we have another local hit, something that is becoming very common during last years.

I do not doubt it, but I guess that it is more enjoyable and exciting if you are qualified. Anyway, it seems a good date with that holiday.

I did not know that JW2 will be released in many countries 2 weeks before than in USA (according iMDB). Maybe, it is because of the World Cup (it starts on June 14th). I guess it will not affect too much in China since they are not qualified.

And both Monster Hunt 2 and Detective Chinatown 2 were sequels. I guess that it is harder for original films to get big presales figures. Is it possible that we have another local beast just 2 months after CNY? It seems crazy.

2 anecdotical data: Wolf Warrior 2 appears today in Maoyan list. It ranks #18 with a minimal 55k Yuan. Punctual re-release? With current ER and if my data are correct, China has already 100 films over $100m. 70 of them have been released during the last 3 years.

SW9 will be the end of the trilogy. It should rebound.

I am not so sure of it (and I am Madrid supporter)

out of topic: I still can not believe that the referee signed that penalty...

Beyond RPO (amazing run), I see there is a film called Hindi Medium (9.1 rate), which I guess is from India. It is ranking second (today close to 40m Yuan) and according Maoyan is heading to close to $50m total.