peludo
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Everything posted by peludo
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Here: Titanic 3D Overseas -
Disney should try to release Avengers 4 everywhere the same weekend to try the billion OW WW...
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Wow, I see that 1.3b OS-China prediction too ambitious. I will not say it is impossible because we still do not know how good legs will be, but for the moment I say that is too much. I think it has a real chance to beat Titanic (2.187b). We will see during next days if it is able to go beyond that point.
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According what people who know a lot are saying in Chinese presales thread, the OW seems already locked to be at least $200m. Let's be cautious and it opens to "just" $220m. With good reception it would be headed to $400m (similar to Furious 8). This scenario already seems the floor. But there is still 9 days until it is released. The previsions could still increase and who knows if it could manage the OW DOM and try $500m total... you never know what can happen in China.
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With a $200m OW I really doubt it can jump to $600m total. Multipliers in China are lower than in USA. A x2 multiplier would already be great.
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Fixed For that reason we could just sum admissions figures instead multiplying by average ticket prices.
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"A dog's life" is my oldest film. "The kid" is my oldest film over 1 hour duration.
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For that reason I prefer admissions figures. There is no possible distortion with ERs or inflation.
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The problem is what ticket price do we apply for so bloated films like this because 3D or IMAX? It had an incredible 3D ratio. Would it had had the same 3D ratio today? For example, it is said that Avatar sold 76 million admissions in USA, what means about $10 per ticket. Today the average ticket price in USA is $9.18, still lower. Applying inflation to films like this is close to impossible. I prefer the admissions figures for that reason.
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Absolutely. There is no doubt about it. It did $200m in 2010. It is obvious that Avatar was loved there. It will increase for sure. How much it can do? That is really hard to predict. We do not know either if people will become crazy for this again as it happened with first part. It can go as "low" as 400-500 or become a billion film in China. I think that second option is more probable, but who knows... It is too early.
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Titanic will remain to be the most impressive run WW ever. No matters if some films start to outgross it in unadjusted figures. Nothing gets close to it. Not even Avatar. Concerning Avatar, with current ERs (not applying inflation), it would have done today about $2.47b, not $2.79b.
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Presales are at the same level than Furious 8, which would have done $425m with current ER. That is what has changed. It is exploding.
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If China delivers as it seems, it will. And I do not rule out to reach TFA. To talk about Titanic is still early but definitely not impossible.
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April 27th-29th (Provisional data) 1. Infinity War: €6.8m 2. Campeones: €1.6m 3. A quiet place: €0.4m 4. Game night: €0.3m 5. Peter Rabbit: €0.2m IW increases a 28% relative to TA OW in local currency. TA opened the same day 6 years ago (April 27th) and it finished with €16,247,441 ($19.6m with current ER) and 2,393,746 admissions sold. Campeones is defintely the current phenomenon. It has finished its 4th weekend and it has increased relative to 3rd one even facing Avengers opening. After 3rd weekend it was at €6.9m. It should already be over €9m. It already has a x4.8 multiplier relative to OW. If it is able to keep 20-25% drops from now, it should fly over €15m... and who knows if it could be able to beat IW at the end of its run.
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According current presales and projections of @POTUS in presales thread (he knows very well how the market works), IW could make similar numbers to Furious 8 in China, what means over $400m with current ER.
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No, not locked. But possible.
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The 2 biggest Pixar films are sequels (Dory and TS3). Said this, I do not think I2 will open so high either.
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During next weekend. Anyway, hard to say since there are holidays along the week in many countries. Saturday (11 days) or Sunday (12). We will know better after Tuesday holiday. One doubt: I guess that the account of days starts on Wednesday, isn't it? So IW is already on day 5. 1 billion OS would be after 19 days instead 17, as I previously said.
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And what about a third weekend over $300m OS with China release? 1 billion OS in 17 days?
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Spain: $8.3m (3-day) vs $6.2m (4-day) +34% with one day less BTW, it is the biggest SH opening ever (applying current ER, €7m). The previous record was €5.3m of TA.
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Relative to China, presales seem to follow a similar pattern to Furious 8, which did over 400 million with current ER. Relative to OS-Russia-China, I do not know what is wrong. Legs use to be better OS than in USA.
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USA: 250 x 2.4 = 600 OS-Russia-China: 380 x 2.63 = 1b Russia = 35 China = 350-400 Total: 1.985b-2.035b And I think I am being conservative. If there is nothing strange, it will happen.
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It is not optimism. I always try to be objective This is a MONSTER
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IMO, locked. I think it will be closer to Titanic (1.528b) than to F7 (1.132b)
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I know you prefer to be conservative and I understand why, but this seems a more similar phenomenon to TA than to Ultron. 2 billion are probable. And both TFA and Titanic are not safe... It is incredible. Congrats to all Marvel loonies. You were absolutely right. I am absolutely astonished. Marvel has done the impossible... again.
