Sam

Children’s Day is on Monday this year for SK

Kong didn’t manage to pass 10M there even with the big opening?

I calculated it wrong. If it drops 44% for the weekend, then total should end close to 70M by Sunday. And I agree, I think it will hold better due to holiday Monday.

If it keeps that average 44% drop over the whole weekend, total up to Sun for SK should land around $65M

True. It’s just that it’s been following TA OS quite closely so far, and for second Friday, TA only managed 30.3M (not sure how reliable that is, but it’s the only daily data I managed to find for TA 2nd weekend). That’s a +32% from its Thu. I can see IW having a better jump though. I was just hesitating with a 55M Friday cause it’s quite a small weekly drop, and also cause Russia gonna see a drop off from OD Thu. Would love for it to beat my expectations and cruise through 1B in 10 days!

Thinking 15.7M Dom + 35.3M OS (include Russia OD) for WW Total of ~909M up to Thursday. Need 91M WW Friday. Dom should manage around 36M at least, 55M OS Fri I think is a bit much considering there’s no new openers beside Russia. Also that would be a -36% from last Friday. Seems too optimistic to me. Maybe I just go about this wrongly lol. What’s your projections for 1B by Friday?

With the amount of theaters it’s losing this week, 138M total looks to be where it’s heading. That’s a 3.3x legs. Good run.

Since you did an optimistic scenario, just for fun, I’m gonna go the total opposite way for an extra pessimistic scenario. I chose the worst jumps/drops from each 2nd weekend day among the MCU Spring/early Summer movies. Fri: 31.7M (+102% BP) Sat: 45.55M (+43.7% IM1) Sun: 28.74 (-36.9% IM2) Total: 106M (-59%)

-7.5% from Wednesday If it follows TA1 thru the weekend Fri: 37M (+136%) Sat: 54M (+47%) Sun: 39M (-28%) Second weekend: 130M (-49.6%) Still can’t see IW dropping anything over 55%. Even following BP which has the softest Fri jump among all Spring/early Summer MCU releases, weekend projection for IW would still end around 122.7M (-52.4%) Edit: Dang it @aabattery

Wow, this is really helpful to know. Thank you so much. I literally just read through the OS Avengers BO thread and pulled numbers from the posts lol. Overseas BO is just so tricky to do comparisons and projections on considering how many countries involved and the variations in standard BO reportings set by each. Thanks again. You’re the best.

Reading through the old Avengers OS thread was a real experience. That movie amazing BO performance really came outta nowhere. Lots of records broken, and numbers kept increasing from early estimates. Anyway, I’m not very good at projections, so all I can do is digging through that thread and provide y’all (who are better at it than me) with some numbers from The Avengers OS box office. Hopefully they will be helpful for IW projections/predictions or comparisons. This post gonna be a bit long, sorry guys! FIRST WEEK: - Opening weekend Wed-Sun: 185.1M (39 territories) - OW Fri-Sun: 149.1M - 33.1M Monday - 42.3M Tuesday/Labor Day (41 territories, opening in Singapore and Thailand) - 20.6M Wednesday - 22.9M Thursday (including Russia OD) - OS Total after 9 days in release: 304M SECOND WEEK: - Second weekend Fri-Sun: 156.1M (that meant -15.7% from 5-day OW and +4.7% from FSS OW ) (52 territories, basically all the major markets except for Japan, which opened in August) Some context is needed for the huge number up there: • 17.9M OW Russia (including OD Thursday) • 18M OW China (China OD was Sat so it’s a 2-day OW) • 12.5M 2nd weekend in South Korea (+16% from SK 3-day OW and -5% from 5-day OW) • Similar to the incredible hold from SK, some notable great 2nd weekend drops for TA: Germany (sub-20%), UK (-40% from 3-day OW), Netherlands (-2%), Colombia (-15%), The only reported 2nd weekend daily number was Friday estimate, which was 30.3M (this figure includes Russia). OS Total after 2nd weekend is 447.4M Starting from this point, any comparisons between TA and IW will be super wonky because China got thrown into the mix, but here are the numbers for TA1 anyway: - 28.4M Monday - 24.3M Tuesday - 17.7M Wednesday - 15.5M Thursday So 533.3M OS total up to there. Phew, that took long! Gonna continue with 3rd week/weekend numbers if needed.

Great numbers. So Russia also delivered. China, you’re up.

Excuse me, but this is an insult to Ethan. You severely underestimate him. He predicted IW under IM1, thank you very much.

Is there such thing as a “ban after effect”? Cause who are you and what have you done to our brazen, full of confidence MovieMan89?

And to think just 7 years ago, the first Captain America couldn’t even clear 400M WW.

Did some digging through old thread and found that The Avengers OS Thursday: 22.9M, with 4M coming from OD Russia. Meaning 18.9M from other countries, an 8.25% drop from its OS Wednesday. Using the same drop for IW would put its Thursday at $29.5M sans Russia. Anyone have ideas what Russia OD is heading towards?

I have learned the errors of my way, so I decided to be conservative and go with 25M Wednesday instead.

I may have jinxed it with 30M mantra. Sorry guys. I really thought it would work. My bad.

So it’s #crumbling?

@Arlborn @Moviefanatic Y’all can’t put that evil on me. But fine, I’ll rein myself in. 25M Wednesday.

Ed.

That is one thrilling saga.

That was me missing you. That was love.

Shit. Top of the list. I deny. You can’t prove anything.

It’ll be 30M Tuesday. I had repeated enough times for it to come true. Ya’ll feel free to @ me when it happens