Australia Australian Box Office | ....

[JJ-8]

So around 19m AUD. very nice!I'm thinking that means a 4.5m to 4.7m sat and a 3.8m to 4m sun. As expected huge bumps over Friday. 30m will be passed by the end of next weekend. 40m is locked. Hell 45m even looks simple. 50m means reasonable legs. Any more means great legs. (null)

[JJ-8]

I think a TA vs DH2 chart might be in order. I think this the closest we can get. Nothing else in the ballpark. (null)

[DeeCee]

Imagine the 4 day weekend if this had opened next year when ANZAC Day falls on Thursday. Actually, IM3 will probably have that weekend.

[Robertron]

Wow. Completely destroyed even all of our optimistic expectations.So it looks like we will be having at least three $40m films for 2012.The AvengersThe HobbitThe Dark Knight Rises (lack of Ledger-scenario shouldn't affect it too much)

[Robertron]

As Battleship has sailed (somewhat seemingly unnoticed) past, The Avengers has basically no competition for a good month and a half.This is probably completely out of the realm of possibilities, but imagine it legged it's way to Titanic :/

[Robertron]

quick prediction:Weekend / Weekly totalWeek 0: 0m / 6m* (Wednesday only) / 6mWeek 1: 11.5m / 15.5m / 21.5mWeek 2: 6m / 8.5m / 30.0mWeek 3: 3.6m / 4.8m / 34.8mWeek 4: 2.3m / 3.1m / 37.9mWeek 5: 1.5m / 2.1m / 40.0mWeek 6: 0.8m / 1.3m / 41.3mThat run would be around 44m - 46m finish.am i too optimistic .. ???

After seeing the actuals, that seems just about right.

[Ball Lightning]

Hoping it can hit 50m, though it'll need to really break out for that, but definitely not out of the realm of possibility. We'll see how well it plays this week.

[JJ-8]

20m is locked by Tuesday at the latest. 30m is locked by the following Wednesday. Barring a major collapses which I just don't see happening. 40m will follow soon after. 45m or so is I think an average run. 50m is minor breakout. Potter and beyond is a huge breakout. Titanic is out of reach. It's total is now > 63m. Lol(null)

[Robertron]

20m is locked by Tuesday at the latest. 30m is locked by the following Wednesday. Barring a major collapses which I just don't see happening. 40m will follow soon after. 45m or so is I think an average run. 50m is minor breakout. Potter and beyond is a huge breakout. Titanic is out of reach. It's total is now > 63m. Lol(null)

The MPDAA hasn't included 3D - unlike NA, I think we acknowledge 3D rereleases "officially" as separate.

[lab276]

The MPDAA hasn't included 3D - unlike NA, I think we acknowledge 3D rereleases "officially" as separate.

The Avatar rerelease was included. Not sure why Titanic misses out.

[JJ-8]

To put this in even better context......

HP8 vs TF3 vs TA

1: 18.4m/25.5m vs 12.4m/15.0m vs 13m/19m EST

2: 8m/38.7m vs 7m/27.2m vs ?

3: 3.8m/44.5m vs 3m/32.9m vs ?

Excluding the opening day, TA is closer to TF3 which collapsed in it's third weekend, something i think TA can avoid (no competition or lack thereof in comparison )

looking at the above.......

projections for TA: (and yes i'm taking into account the other films are during school holidays)

1: 13m/19m

2: 7m/29m

3: 3.8m/34.6m

That should push a total > 45m... needs some good holds to make 50m though.

[Robertron]

The Avatar rerelease was included. Not sure why Titanic misses out.

Bar two minutes, Avatar was simply a rerelease of a film that was already in 3D.I think they're counting 3D rereleases separately, if the films initial format was 2D

[RthDeadWov]

Actuals

Avengers wkend 621 13,288,146 cume 19,305,652

8th biggest opening weekend,

#2 first 5 days wed-sun 19.306mil, behind HP DHpt2 25.457mil9,305,652

[lab276]

Bar two minutes, Avatar was simply a rerelease of a film that was already in 3D.I think they're counting 3D rereleases separately, if the films initial format was 2D

Nevertheless, Titanic stands at $63m, probably an unreachable total for any film this year.

[RTX]

To put this in even better context......

HP8 vs TF3 vs TA

1: 18.4m/25.5m vs 12.4m/15.0m vs 13m/19m EST

2: 8m/38.7m vs 7m/27.2m vs ?

3: 3.8m/44.5m vs 3m/32.9m vs ?

Excluding the opening day, TA is closer to TF3 which collapsed in it's third weekend, something i think TA can avoid (no competition or lack thereof in comparison )

...

That should push a total > 45m... needs some good holds to make 50m though.

I don't understand why you just ignore OD in your analysis. OD as percentage of 5-day clearly indicates TA is more frontloaded than TF3. No way it drops less than 50% next weekend. I think Harry Potter-esque legs are in order. 40M might be the best case right now. Edited April 30, 2012 by RTX

[Chewy]

lol it opened on a public holiday. The OD as a % of the 5 day doesn't compare to TF3 at all. Stop clownin around

[RTX]

It's 6M vs 2.6M - public holiday cannot account for such a gap.And IM2 fell 55% in its second weekend, so why should this have a much better hold??

[Chewy]

1st point- Yes, it absolutely can2nd point- Because it's a much better movie that will have much better WOM than IM2

[RTX]

Harry Potter fans were using the same WOM argument for DH2, but its legs were basically identical to HBP in Australia.There are only so many people who want to see this, and many of them watched the film several times already.

[Chewy]

There are only so many people who want to see this, and many of them watched the film several times already.

You can say that about literally every movie ever made. That's not a valid argument for or against a film developing legs.This has a much broader audience than IM2. If you can't see that based on this opening vs IM2's opening, I don't know what to tell you. Wait and see, I guess