BSG: Congratulations to FILM!

[grim22]

If you asked me to guess right now, I'd say that As Above So Below could currently be favored to make more money than Deliver Us From Evil. I'm just not seeing people jumping on the bandwagon for DUFE.

 

This is basically betting on which movie will be the horror breakout for summer. As Above, So Below releases on 15 August. This gives it basically 2 weeks to make money. It also release alongside 2 potential 30M+ openers i.e. Expendables 3 and Giver. DUFE releases over a 5 day weekend, and is in a pretty empty July. Purge 2 is its direct demo competition, but it has 16 days to itself till Purge 2.

 

August is ridiculous this year, there are 17 wide release in 5 weeks, many of which can open really high. Potentially 2 40M+ openers, 4-6 30M+ openers and 5-6 20M+ openers. And many of these release in the same week.

Edited May 5, 2014 by grim22

[kitik]

August is indeed really strong looking this year. Lucy, TMNT, and Into The Storm all come out the same week. That does not bode well for Into The Storm. With so many movies going against each other, it should be one of the more enetertaining Augusts ever to follow the box office. Some will succeed and some will flop.

 

 

Speaking of which, baumer, how about a question along the lines of:

-Which movie from July is most likely to move out of it's release week?

-Which movie from August is most likely to move out of August?

 

You'd think one of those August movies is going to run away, wouldn't you?

[Jake Gittes]

I'd expect one or two August 29 releases to get pushed back. 

[Jake Gittes]

Well I won The Other Woman bonus (predicted 14.385, actual is 14.407). Spaghetti was insanely close with his 14.375 prediction

[Dementeleus]

Heads up, guys: baumer just let me know that the Week 2 questions will be up later tonight (around 9pm Pacific time-ish).

[grim22]

Not a bad week in the end. Spidey snuck past 35M on Friday, TOW just dropped more than 41% and Cap2 dropped more than 50%, and Nikki tipped her hand too quickly with a 35M Friday projection. GBH managed to drop less than 35% and stay in the top 12.

 

Anyone know if the phrase "not a record" or something similar showed up at any point?

[Mattrek]

The Fault in Our Stars predictions confuse me. It looks like a fantastic heart warming movie, but I don't see how the GA will go for it. Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close comes to mind as a recent film comparison. Also Fox Searchlight movies rarely break the 50m mark. I can't believe people are predicting a 50m OW for it.

Edited May 5, 2014 by Mattrek Loves Del Toro

[Dementeleus]

As far as I can tell, this is Deadline's first report:

 

1ST UPDATE, Friday, 11:02 PM: The Amazing Spider-Man 2 had a strong grip Friday night with an estimated take of $34M to $35M gross on track to open at $91M+ (depending on Saturday’s percentage drop). So our first estimates were right on the money … about 30% ahead the first installment’s opening of $62M. (In 2012, ASM opened on a Tuesday ahead of the July 4 holiday, which was a Wednesday). Right now, we’re figuring about a 10% drop although it might surprise as this picture plays to families and Saturdays and Sundays are prime movie-going days for the brood. So Saturday numbers are key.

 

Let’s face it: Is there any little boy right now who isn’t tugging on their Dad’s shirt sleeve asking to go see Spider-Man? It’s what the industry refers to as a four-quadrant picture, meaning basically it plays across all demos. It has a B+ CinemaScore and an A- for those under 25, so word of mouth will carry it well. Good for director Marc Webb and producers Matt Tolmach and Avi Arad along with the films’ bevy of writers. Have been watching and asking questions on this this today, and the franchise was about 20% to 22% behind Captain America: The Winter Soldier all day, but kicked into gear this evening after grossing $8.7M lastsp1 night in late shows. Remember, the $10.2M that the Cap did in late shows last month was 15% ahead of ASM2‘s $8.7M last night, but you got to take into account that the Captain got the added bonus of what was estimated to be a 14% surge from Spring Breakers which pushed it into a three-day gross of $95M.

 

ASM2, which bowed in a window of opportunity overseas a couple of weeks ago to a strong showing, has two weekends domestically to make its lion’s share before Warner Bros./Legendary Pics’ Godzilla stomps into theaters. The performance of Amazing Spider-Man 2 is a big deal for the studio. The production budget is said to be around $255M, with about $185M-$190M spent on marketing. That means all in it needs to make more than $752.2M worldwide (which is what the first installment grossed). About 65% of the first installment’s gross came from international markets.

 

Here is Nikki's first tweet:

http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/14699-weekend-asm2-thread-92m/?p=1377763

Edited May 5, 2014 by Telemachos

[Jake Gittes]

The Fault in Our Stars is not Searchlight.

[grim22]

 

As far as I can tell, this is Deadline's first report:

 

1ST UPDATE, Friday, 11:02 PM: The Amazing Spider-Man 2 had a strong grip Friday night with an estimated take of $34M to $35M gross on track to open at $91M+ (depending on Saturday’s percentage drop). So our first estimates were right on the money … about 30% ahead the first installment’s opening of $62M. (In 2012, ASM opened on a Tuesday ahead of the July 4 holiday, which was a Wednesday). Right now, we’re figuring about a 10% drop although it might surprise as this picture plays to families and Saturdays and Sundays are prime movie-going days for the brood. So Saturday numbers are key.

 

Let’s face it: Is there any little boy right now who isn’t tugging on their Dad’s shirt sleeve asking to go see Spider-Man? It’s what the industry refers to as a four-quadrant picture, meaning basically it plays across all demos. It has a B+ CinemaScore and an A- for those under 25, so word of mouth will carry it well. Good for director Marc Webb and producers Matt Tolmach and Avi Arad along with the films’ bevy of writers. Have been watching and asking questions on this this today, and the franchise was about 20% to 22% behind Captain America: The Winter Soldier all day, but kicked into gear this evening after grossing $8.7M lastsp1 night in late shows. Remember, the $10.2M that the Cap did in late shows last month was 15% ahead of ASM2‘s $8.7M last night, but you got to take into account that the Captain got the added bonus of what was estimated to be a 14% surge from Spring Breakers which pushed it into a three-day gross of $95M.

 

ASM2, which bowed in a window of opportunity overseas a couple of weeks ago to a strong showing, has two weekends domestically to make its lion’s share before Warner Bros./Legendary Pics’ Godzilla stomps into theaters. The performance of Amazing Spider-Man 2 is a big deal for the studio. The production budget is said to be around $255M, with about $185M-$190M spent on marketing. That means all in it needs to make more than $752.2M worldwide (which is what the first installment grossed). About 65% of the first installment’s gross came from international markets.

 

 

So looks like that specific phrase or any indication of that phrase didn't make it into the report.

[Mattrek]

The Fault in Our Stars is not Searchlight.

Ok then, my bad. I still don't know if the GA will go for it though.

[kitik]

Just took a quick glance through the weekly questions. I had sooooo many wrong answers, from Transcendence to Saturday increases to weekly drops under 35%.

 

Ugly.

 

Even the bonuses let me down. I'm nowhere near on any of the numbers, and I only got 2 of the 5 placements correct.

 

Awful start to the game.

[kitik]

Any kind souls compile a list of correct answers yet that we can check ourselves against?

[Punishment]

Any kind souls compile a list of correct answers yet that we can check ourselves against?

 

Yea, opposite of what my answers are

[Films]

ANSWERS FOR QUESTIONS I KNOW1. YES2. NO3. NO4. YES5. YES6. NO7. NO8. NO9. ?10. NO11. NO12. YES13. YES14. YES15. YES16. NO17. YES18. YES19. ?20. NO21. YES22. YES23. YES24. NO25. YES26. YES27. YES28. YES29. YES30. YESPlease also correct me if I got anything wrong

Edited May 5, 2014 by MeanGirlsFilms

[baumer]

hey guys and gals I have had a pretty busy day today... a good day but a busy day. I will have the questions up by midnight my time. & I will really try to get the scores done for tonight. If not it will be done first thing in the morning. My apologies but like I said it's been a busy day.

Edited May 5, 2014 by baumer

[kitik]

ANSWERS FOR QUESTIONS I KNOW1. YES2. NO3. NO4. YES5. YES6. NO7. NO8. NO9. ?10. NO11. NO12. YES13. YES14. YES15. YES16. NO17. YES18. YES19. ?20. NO21. YES22. YES23. YES24. NO25. YES26. YES27. YES28. YES29. YES30. YESPlease also correct me if I got anything wrong

 

 

IMAX was 9.3M, so #9 should be NO

 

edit: I haven't seen anyone point anything out, so #19 should also be NO.

Edited May 5, 2014 by kitik

[kitik]

so the answers should be:

 

1. YES2. NO3. NO4. YES5. YES6. NO7. NO8. NO9. NO10. NO11. NO12. YES13. YES14. YES15. YES16. NO17. YES18. YES19. NO20. NO21. YES22. YES23. YES24. NO25. YES26. YES27. YES28. YES29. YES30. YES 

 

Bonus 1: 91.608M

Bonus 2: 14.407M

Bonus 3: 3.692M

Bonus 4: 3.929M

 

Bonus 5:

4 Captain America The Winter Soldier

5 Rio 2

10 God's Not Dead

11 Bears

13 Transcendence

[Dementeleus]

I think I got 26,000.

[Mattrek]

Wow I thought I'd be well behind the pack. 28k for me. Guess everyone got screwed over.