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1 Billion movies 2014 (What will be 2014's Frozen?)

1 Billion movies 2014  

47 members have voted

  1. 1. How many 1 Billion movies will there be in 2014?

    • Zero!!!
      3
    • One
      9
    • Two
      25
    • Three
      6
    • Four
      0
    • Five
      0
    • More than five (Yolo)
      1


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I don’t know if this is the first 1Billion topic of 2014.

I wanted to make this one because on BOM they didn’t make there chart like they did last year.

So I would love to know what movies you think will make it to the 1B mark in 2014.

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I personally think that these movie got there shot:

Transformers age of the extinction: If it doesn’t fall too hard because of the bad critics it will pass the 1B mark. We can easily say that the Asian countries will be huge!  (odd 85%)

 

The Hobbit There And Back Again: I think this one is a lock, don’t know how u guys think about it, but it would be embarrassing if it doesn’t reach the 1B mark. I even think that I might get a clause run to ROTK. (At least if the marketing doesn’t under preform like with DoS.) (odd 90%)

 

The Hunger Games Mockingjay part 1: I think this movie got a good shot, I mean if OS grows to 600M it will be locked at 1B. So with some good will I can see this movie crossing the 1B mark. (odd 55%)

 

Maleficent: This won’t reach it I think, but I do hope so. If it’s luck I might be the next Frozen, but I dough about it. (odd 5%)

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I do not see locked movies, but Transformers 4 and Hobbit 3 are quite probable. 1-1.05 billion for TF4 and 1.1 for TABA (Chinese increase in DOS is quite promising for last part)

 

TASM2 could be very close. For the moment I see it at 900s

 

I think Mockingjay could stay flat (a bit higher OS and a bit lower DOM relative to CF). 850

 

And then, we could see a surprise like last 2 years with Skyfall and Frozen. Maybe an animated movie like How to train your dragon 2 (personally, I do not think it will reach it), or a big production like Interstellar (let's remember that Inception already did over 800 4 years ago)

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I do not see locked movies, but Transformers 4 and Hobbit 3 are quite probable. 1-1.05 billion for TF4 and 1.1 for TABA (Chinese increase in DOS is quite promising for last part)

 

TASM2 could be very close. For the moment I see it at 900s

 

I think Mockingjay could stay flat (a bit higher OS and a bit lower DOM relative to CF). 850

 

And then, we could see a surprise like last 2 years with Skyfall and Frozen. Maybe an animated movie like How to train your dragon 2 (personally, I do not think it will reach it), or a big production like Interstellar (let's remember that Inception already did over 800 4 years ago)

 

Mostly I agree with you, but for THG I think I could really break out this year.

 Because we got a 90% in Belgium, also good increases in other countries and we got the fact that CF was loved by the audience (not by me, I preferred the books) so It will absolutely reach +900M I think. 

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Mostly I agree with you, but for THG I think I could really break out this year.

 Because we got a 90% in Belgium, also good increases in other countries and we got the fact that CF was loved by the audience (not by me, I preferred the books) so It will absolutely reach +900M I think. 

I do not deny the influence of good results of CF, but experience says that every book which is splitted, the first movie (or even second part as we have seen with Desolation of Smaug) suffers the consequences.

 

Deathly Hallows I (nearly flat relative to Half Blood Prince)

Breaking Dawn I (flat)

Hobbit 2 (decrease)

 

Every example has suffered this new trend. It is a great business (double benefits), but first part is lower than expected. Then, final part, should explode. DH2 did 400 million more than DH1. BD2 did 120 million more than BD1. I think Hobbit 3 will be the biggest of the trilogy and could reach 1.1 billion. And Mockingjay 2 will probably fly over billion.

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MJ1 ? I will be surpised if it can even hang on over 800m WW. Both DOM and OS should decrease this time with MJ2 seeing increases.

 

TF4 will disappoint due to audience's fatigado, 900m.

 

ASM2 has harsh competition. While DOM will drag Godzilla down to not reaching near 900M.

 

No legit shot for any other movie.

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