The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[MovieMan89]

THG is a fluke and even with Titanic 3D, we are headed toward a bad April and questionable summer even with TDKR and Avengerslet's see what happens by August before declaring the recession over

Lol, this summer is not questionable, especially when compared to last year's. At worst May is a bit weak, but Avengers should more than pick up the slack for the rest of the weak slate. And June, July, and especially August are all stronger than normal this year so it doesn't really matter that May isn't the best ever. Edited April 3, 2012 by MovieMan89

[AniNate]

Last summer was about as unquestionable as you can get.

[MovieMan89]

Last summer was about as unquestionable as you can get.

Last summer was packed with sequel after sequel, almost all of which looked sure to disappoint and almost all of which did. This year has far more promise for real breakout blockbusters and two sequels that blow even DH2 out of the water in blockbuster potential (TA and TDKR). Aside from possibly May which will be close, every summer month this year will soar past last year's.

[AniNate]

And yet it was the highest-grossing summer ever. There were a lot of mid-level hits like Bad Teacher, Horrible Bosses, and The Smurfs that picked up the slack from the blockbusters. I'm not really seeing that kind of potential this year.

[Alana]

This year is going to do much better than last year because of major releases (TDKR, Avengers, Hobbit, ..) there might be drops again next year though I'm afraid.

[MovieMan89]

Next year will drop for sure. There's just no chance it can compete with TDKR, TA, TH1, and THG. Unless there's a ton of mid level hits.

[rb02]

Which wouldn't necessarily mean another recession. It would largely just demonstrate a relatively weak year of attractive movies. If you can take a slate of movies, and they all meet modest expectations, to me, that's less a sign of a recession than a series of blockbusters which make big bucks- but fail to meet expectations.The reason, by the way, that I think 2012 is doing so well is not because of the Hunger Games. That was a surefire hit, or least it was as of a few weeks ago, as it caught major momentum. The most impressive thing about this year are the lower budget movies breaking out- Chronicle, Woman in Black, Act of Valor, Devil Inside, etc, etc. All sorts of very profitable films on a low budget, many of which doubled their expected output.

[AniNate]

And let's not forget the mega-breakouts of The Vow and Safe House. No one saw that coming.Lorax was also pretty impressive. Probably could've had a shot at Despicable Me if it wasn't so mediocre.

Edited April 3, 2012 by tribefan695

[MovieMan89]

And let's not forget the mega-breakouts of The Vow and Safe House. No one saw that coming.Lorax was also pretty impressive. Probably could've had a shot at Despicable Me if it wasn't so mediocre.

Or even if it hadn't pissed a lot of parents off with its ultra strong environmental message. I'm guessing kids probably liked it well enough, but I know for a fact that it would rub some righties the wrong way.

[vc2002]

Definitely not over. This summer we have big tentpole films like TDKR and TA, and they dont come every year.

[lab276]

Next year will drop for sure. There's just no chance it can compete with TDKR, TA, TH1, and THG. Unless there's a ton of mid level hits.

Yeah, that's gonna be annoying. I'd like a consistent run of high yearly admissions, not one big year and then a big drop.

[MovieMan89]

Yeah, that's gonna be annoying. I'd like a consistent run of high yearly admissions, not one big year and then a big drop.

I guess I could be wrong though. I mean TH2 could equal TH1, CF=THG, and IM3=TA (that one seems doubtful though). So that would then just leave TDKR as the big one without an equal. Overall it just doesn't look to be as appealing of a year though so I'm still guessing it drops. Edited April 3, 2012 by MovieMan89

[AniNate]

Next year's March looks pretty good, maybe even better than this year's.Summer is also intriguing. I applaud the studios for taking so many gambles on big-budget original properties, even if they may not all work out. The season really is a nice mixture of the familiar with the new.

Edited April 3, 2012 by tribefan695

[MovieMan89]

Next year's March looks pretty good, maybe even better than this year's.Summer is also intriguing. I applaud the studios for taking so many gambles on big-budget original properties, even if they may not all work out.

Next year's May should definitely obliterate this year's. IM3, Star Trek 2, Fast 6, Hangover 3, Oblivion, and The Lone Ranger. It's the rest of the summer that looks quite a bit weaker. I think some of those movies should move to June or July. Edited April 3, 2012 by MovieMan89

[TLK]

You have lean periods even in great years. I love watching movies and there is a good chance that I will skip most of April movies this year. There isn't anything interesting coming out until The Avengers.

[lab276]

You have lean periods even in great years. I love watching movies and there is a good chance that I will skip most of April movies this year. There isn't anything interesting coming out until The Avengers.

2002 had no lean periods.

[AniNate]

I wonder where they'll schedule Pain and Gain. On one hand it's not really a summer action blockbuster and on the other it's still Bayhem. Maybe April right before Oblivion?

[TLK]

2002 had no lean periods.

It is relative. THG will make 100 millions in the month of April. Who knows what other movie may break out? My point is that this is a comparatively weak lineup and it happens every year.

[kayumanggi]

let me be clear about what I mean regarding fluke, its a series that was hugely anticipated and would have drawn a huge opening in summer, winter or whenever it was releasedit also achieved a massive gross on a relatively low marketing and production budget which adds to its incredible statushow many movies recently can we say have achieved this on a first opening? fluke is an appropriate word to describe its place in BO history, not the project itselffurthermore, there are some huge budgeted summer films with massive expectations that obviously need to be met in some sense, so I'm sorry if I continue to look bigger picture on where the industry is headedtechnically as a "recession" it may end when the summer comes but we'll see where the business is in terms of tickets sold and inflation when summer is over like I mentioned in my first post

2012 has sold 66.7 M more tickets than 2011 during the same period. 66.7 FREAKIN MILLION! What more evidence do you need? 2012 has also sold more tickets than 2009, the last year that saw an uptick in ticket sales. Edited April 3, 2012 by kayumanggi

[kayumanggi]

and 2011 was a horrible year in film by historical levels, so comparing it is not exactly fair or relevent

I'm sorry? 2011 was a horrible year because of the fact that it underwent a recession. Comparing 2012 to it is the only way to say that the recession is over.