What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

[eXtacy]

There are no signs of slowdown yet. It could easily surpass US by 2018

[Asyulus]

I think 2017.

[sgchn40]

I wonder how MFLawrence feel when so many are still predicting 2017 and 2018 when he used so many metrics to predict that it will take until 2030. *curious grin*

[POTUS 2020]

I wonder how MFLawrence feel when so many are still predicting 2017 and 2018 when he used so many metrics to predict that it will take until 2030. *curious grin*

Just going by the numbers.

A majority of small businesses fail inside 2 years and play the stock market wrong. They don't look at all the data and possibilities. 19 of 20 people I knew thought nasdaq was going higher in 2000, going to 10000 they said in 2 years. It was obvious the dump was coming when doing a little research into the earnings and global growth, it had to slow down and the stocks would get hit. After falling 79% in 2 years, here we are 15 years later and it just made back to 5000, and 10000 is still not going to happen in 2 years.

 

That's why I started this thread. Economically, it doesn't make sense that they would spend 11b in BO on that GDP and GDP per capita. Its obvious t me the slow down happens at 8b. Well see. and see signs of it soon.  No way its topping next April. May struggle with this July. we're going to start seeing some negative months in the next 12.

[Asyulus]

I want this to happen in 2017!

Hmm, hope im right.

[Intensive]

I'm glad this is happening now, I'm trying to get into the financial side of the film industry so this big boom in China will definitely make my future job more fun

[Asyulus]

I'm glad this is happening now, I'm trying to get into the financial side of the film industry so this big boom in China will definitely make my future job more fun

I'm with you.

[sgchn40]

I'm glad this is happening now, I'm trying to get into the financial side of the film industry so this big boom in China will definitely make my future job more fun

Chinese films and TV series can definitely have better special effects more than 50cts type!

[POTUS 2020]

Chinese films and TV series can definitely have better special effects more than 50cts type!

here is we see the growth falter

 

 

2013	2014		2015
1650	1920	+16.4%	2590	+34.9%
2120	3240	+52.8%	4050	+25.0%
1390	1620	+16.5%	2910	+79.6%
1790	1770	-1.1%	4090	+131.1%
2130	2220	+4.2%	3180	+43.2%
1820	2720	+49.5%	3286	+20.8%
1790	3610	+101.7%	2900	-19.7%
2320	2550	+9.9%
1300	1800	+38.5%
1600	2760	+72.5%
1560	2300	+47.4%
2200	2460	+11.8%
15,010	17,100		23,006	+34.5%
	$2,758		$3,711

 

June exploded last year thanx in part to TF4 and the next 11 months saw massive growth with a number of months up huge. now we come back around and there are some tough numbers to surpass starting with july. itll be interesting to see how many months fail to grow and which ones can pop to new levels. sept thru dec have room to pop but next spring will be tough to beat

Edited July 2, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[POTUS 2020]

I wonder how MFLawrence feel when so many are still predicting 2017 and 2018 when he used so many metrics to predict that it will take until 2030. *curious grin*

First 7 days in July down 35%. 1000m yuan to 650m. Going to be a big down month. The first in 10 years, The first sign of parabolic fatigue showing, Will still be a great year, but not up 40 or 50% as the beginning of the year portended. 25-30% more likely, maybe $6,2B total. Next year I will assume be up too but breaking next march, april and may will be tough and 2016 and 2017 will need to be up 40% each to surpass domestic at $11B.

A lot of hype on "tiny times", lets see if the growth continues or if there is a 4th installment drop as what often happens in the west. If it bombs like HA, July is doomed and it will be up to Hollywood to save the summer in august

[sgchn40]

First 7 days in July down 35%. 1000m yuan to 650m. Going to be a big down month. The first in 10 years, The first sign of parabolic fatigue showing, Will still be a great year, but not up 40 or 50% as the beginning of the year portended. 25-30% more likely, maybe $6,2B total. Next year I will assume be up too but breaking next march, april and may will be tough and 2016 and 2017 will need to be up 40% each to surpass domestic at $11B.

A lot of hype on "tiny times", lets see if the growth continues or if there is a 4th installment drop as what often happens in the west. If it bombs like HA, July is doomed and it will be up to Hollywood to save the summer in august

I guess many are too engrossed with the stock market action. Even more dramatic than Jurassic World. Edited July 8, 2015 by sgchn40

[POTUS 2020]

I guess many are too engrossed with the stock market action. Even more dramatic than Jurassic World.

you pointed out that volatility at the top of the shanghai run a month ago. always precedes the big dump which is happening, big bounce cometh there.

New York ready to follow. Greece is starting the trouble again as it did in 2010

wont be a big dump in the BO, but this months drop could be a sign of an impending slow down

[peludo]

I do not know what will happen in the future, but I think this is a relevant data (if my numbers are not wrong):

 

Films over $50m

2010: US: 66 - China: 5

2011: US: 67 - China: 8

2012: US: 66 - China: 15

2013: US: 69 - China: 20

2014: US: 67 - China: 23

2015 (until today): US: 27 - China: 27

 

(I am taking the current exchange rate to convert the Yuan figures, which I have taken from this thread)

 

Of course, if we increase the level, US still wins by a considerable margin (for example, with $100m films, US wins 15-10, and with $300m, the result is 4-1), but China has, for the moment, a similar number of films with a some relevant success.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I do not know what will happen in the future, but I think this is a relevant data (if my numbers are not wrong):

 

Films over $50m

2010: US: 66 - China: 5

2011: US: 67 - China: 8

2012: US: 66 - China: 15

2013: US: 69 - China: 20

2014: US: 67 - China: 23

2015 (until today): US: 27 - China: 27

 

(I am taking the current exchange rate to convert the Yuan figures, which I have taken from this thread)

 

Of course, if we increase the level, US still wins by a considerable margin (for example, with $100m films, US wins 15-10, and with $300m, the result is 4-1), but China has, for the moment, a similar number of films with a some relevant success.

Next year (2016—— I have already counted 25 locks for $100m) China may catch up with NA with more than 30 $100m+ grossing films. But for $200m+, $300m, $400m+ years, it would need two more years.

Edited July 26, 2015 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

The most optimistic prediction about CBO as the following:

 

2015 ----------- $7.0B -------- +44%

2016 ----------- $9.7B -------- +38%

2017 ----------- $12.9B ------ +33% -------  surpassing NA box office

2018 ----------- $16.1B ------ +25%

.....

Edited July 26, 2015 by firedeep

[Cynosure]

It's insane how just a few years after surpassing the NA box office China will completely leave it in the dust. By 2020 it will probably be around twice as big and with still enormous growth potential.

[POTUS 2020]

In the meantime, the Shanghai market just tank 8% today... I wonder if this financial roller coaster will have any material impact on box office gross.

That'll months or more than a year to have an impact.  We'll first have to see how far it falls. NASDAQ took 2 years to bottom out as did 1929. In the west, corporations in the meantime have a harder to time to raise money for new ventures and then tighten up.  they stop new hiring, then cutbacks and layoffs. How china will handle it, IDK, but a ripple effect occurs and growth goes negative in a heart beat, and BO will be affected by the lack of new jobs and new moviegoers.

Edited July 27, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[POTUS 2020]

All, ALL, doubts about the market finally slowing down (growth rate wise) have ended. Even after having grown consistently for so many years, the market's year-on-year growth has only increased. If this could increase so much over such a monstrous month from the previous year than their is no more doubt in my mind about the market or its future potential.

LOL. Thats exactly what I heard from everyone about nasdaq in march 2000 and that was the exact end of the 20 year run and collapse ensued. I have read enthusiastic comments like this from 20 different market in the last 300 years, and they all collapsed soon there after. Shanghai after having a huge run is already dumping.

September 1929. Joe Kennedy, JFK's father, was getting his shoes shines when boy said to him, "Market is doing great Mr Kennedy, I bought my first stock last and am making money. There is no end in sight!". Kennedy called his broker and sold everything. Then he sold short. He said "when the shoe shine boy is in, everybody is in, and it time to get out" the market crashed 2 months later.

Warren Buffet. "when everybody is on board and the optimism is at all time highs, pick the opposite direction"

I think this BO run is a good reflection of the Chinese economic boom and market This 50% pop, bigger than any before, is just like Shanghai's recent 100% run, which has just collapsed.

How to make money on this? Shanghai bounced 15% off a huge fall then crashed again. next 10-20% bounce. Buy put options. itll keep happening. Just look at nasdaq 2000-2002 and Japan in the early 90's. Or buy put options on a movie studio, if they are public, right after Chinese new year.

[heinrich]

Mr. M F Lawrence

Whit all do respect but I've reed all 3 pages you post about CBO and some Iconomic analysis..

And I wont to tell you YOU ARE SOO WRONG ABOUT EVERITHING...

 

Please don't compare NASDAQ etc... wth economic live in USA and Economic live in China and CBO..

This is bulshit...

There are still hundreds of millions of Chinese who have yet to develop their areas in which they live and have yet to build theaters for them........ 

CBO wil continiue to grow rapidly couple for several from this moment and certainly over the time will begin slowing down (not til 2020-2022) of growth. But this is still very far, far away.

[POTUS 2020]

Mr. M F Lawrence

Whit all do respect but I've reed all 3 pages you post about CBO and some Iconomic analysis..

And I wont to tell you YOU ARE SOO WRONG ABOUT EVERITHING...

 

Please don't compare NASDAQ etc... wth economic live in USA and Economic live in China and CBO..

This is bulshit...

There are still hundreds of millions of Chinese who have yet to develop their areas in which they live and have yet to build theaters for them........

CBO wil continiue to grow rapidly couple for several from this moment and certainly over the time will begin slowing down (not til 2020-2022) of growth. But this is still very far, far away.

Point taken. I think your wrong on many points. Its not bullshit, just looking at the numbers. Have you taken into account the ghost city's that are becoming harder to populate. Do you realize many people don't like change and prefer to stay rural and not move in to the cities, 1% more are moving into cities which is just a 2% increase in moviegoers. What's happened in the last 20 years is phenomenal and it cant go on endlessly. It has to come to an end, it always does, history shows us that and history always repeats itself.

 

Nasdaq is an excellent example of tremendous growth and a sudden halt of that growth. The growth of chinas economy, its city building and yes its BO are parallel and predicting the end is not easy but the signs are there(shanghai fell 30%) and most people don't see it coming. They all see it going on for a few years more as they did in march 2000 and as you do now. The market moves are predictors of the economy.

 

Even if economic growth goes on, the point of comparing economic numbers not just to the US but 10 other countries is to see how the BO has caught up to established countries relative to GDP nom and PPP and per/cap. It has just about caught up and therefor BO will slow to the current economic growth of 7% soon.

 

 

Edit: Shanghai exchange dumping again, nearly 10% in 2 days, it may retest the July lows soon. Not a good sign for continued growth at 7%

Edited August 20, 2015 by M F Lawrence