Weekend Estimates: Minions - 115.2M; JW - 18.1M; Inside Out - 17.1M; Gallows - 10M; Self/Less - 5.4M; MMXXL - 9.6M; T5 - 13.7M

[MinaTakla]

FLOP!!!

What is?

[Chinoiserie]

I'm kind of torn. On one hand, Minions doesn't deserve the record. On the other hand, Dreck 3 doesn't either.

...

Yay for sub 50 IO drop! Yay for strong JW hold!

If Minions gets the record it is not by a large marging so it would not really be more difficult for some other film like Dory or Frozen 2 to take it down. I have not seen Minions but it can not be as bad as Shrek 3 so Minions should take the record, Shrek 3 has had it for too long.

[mahnamahna]

46.2

38.9

29.95 -23%

115.05

3.10x, ~356

3.15x, ~362.5

Minions vs IO is gonna be fun.

If that's really Minions' final range ($355-365 million DOM), IO should win handily in terms of DOM finish. 

 

I know there's still some that think it may miss Nemo's $339 million, but here me out 

1. Inside Out was on pace for a $22-24 million 4th weekend if not for Minions. TS3 didn't even do that
2. For the last 7-10 days, IO has either equaled or surpassed TS3's similar number. 
3. The gap between IO and TS3 has slowly closed with each week as IO has a slightly better hold
4. IO has the rest of the summer to itself pretty much - Shaun and Underdogs are minor, Pixels isn't direct, Ant-Man should give Disney reason to fudge IO's drop next week 
5. a 4x multi from $18 mlilion would give IO $72 million for the rest of its run. A 5x would give it $90 million for the rest of its run. So $357 million-$375 million as the most likely range.
6. IO has held better than TS3 so far... I doubt TS3 would have only dropped 39% against Minions... probably 44-46%. So TS3 multi shouldn't be used - IO is its own beast 
7. With nothing major for kids until September 25th (Pixels/Ant-Man having family appeal, notwithstanding), IO is set for 10-30% drops until after Labor Day. 

It would get interesting if Minions holds better than expected (3.4x-3.6x)  . either way the odds of at least two animated films doing $325 million+ DOM in one year is almost locked. And we still have Good Dinosaur at year's end to potentially surprise. 

[CJohn]

The record won't happen. Shit.

[kayumanggi]

Both are winners. Period.

[Ethan Hunt]

What had the record before Shrek 3?

[CJohn]

Minions is crumbling.

[Asyulus]

We didnt even reach 100 pages, yet.

[Asyulus]

What is?

Minions, IO and JW.

[baumer]

Saying that a certain movie was on pace for certain amount if it wasn't for another movie makes no sense. There will always be other movies that are in the market place that is just the way it is. So inside out was not on pace for a 24 million dollar weekend because minions was opening this weekend. It was always going to take a hit. So you can't say that it's not like there would never be another movie playing ever that would affect inside out. So get that notion out of your head guys.

[Spidey Freak]

What had the record before Shrek 3?

 

Shrek 2.

 

We didnt even reach 100 pages, yet.

 

Dat DC effect!

[Spidey Freak]

Saying that a certain movie was on pace for certain amount if it wasn't for another movie makes no sense. There will always be other movies that are in the market place that is just the way it is. So inside out was not on pace for a 24 million dollar weekend because minions was opening this weekend. It was always going to take a hit. So you can't say that it's not like there would never be another movie playing ever that would affect inside out. So get that notion out of your head guys.

 

Er, that notion is called a hypothesis, B-Man. The "Adjusted for Inflation" argument works solely on this notion.

[Asyulus]

Not a record.

[baumer]

Er, that notion is called a hypothesis, B-Man. The "Adjusted for Inflation" argument works solely on this notion.

Nope. You cant look at it that way.

[baumer]

I mean, if Jurassic World was the only movie playing until Star Wars comes out it would make a billion in north America. Shockingly there are other movies playing.

[mahnamahna]

Saying that a certain movie was on pace for certain amount if it wasn't for another movie makes no sense. There will always be other movies that are in the market place that is just the way it is. So inside out was not on pace for a 24 million dollar weekend because minions was opening this weekend. It was always going to take a hit. So you can't say that it's not like there would never be another movie playing ever that would affect inside out. So get that notion out of your head guys.

Are you kidding me?

 

It did $21 million weekdays. Every week of its entire run - it's done a little bit more on the weekend than it has on the weekdays, similar to JW. With only The Gallows/Self-Less, you really think it would still be doing $17-18 million this weekend? 

 

It clearly was on pace for at least $21-22 million this weekend, if not for direct competition that opened at $115-120 million. 

 

Bruno opened to $30 million and everything had spectacular holds in 2009. How would two openers combining to $15 million prevent IO from getting $22-24 million when both of them are ZERO competition? 

 

I just don't think IO would drop anymore than 25% this weekend if it weren't going against Minions. This same weekend in 2009 attests to that theory. 

[Spidey Freak]

I mean, if Jurassic World was the only movie playing until Star Wars comes out it would make a billion in north America. Shockingly there are other movies playing.

 

Yes, but the competition between animated movies tends to work out in a very specifically brutal way. It's the same when two movies targeting the same demographic come out close to each other. It's hard for two animated films to not chomp at each other's collections the way an IO or Minions can avoid chomping at JW's collections. For example, if IO manages to squeak past JW in the actuals, this would be the first time in history when two animated films held both No. 1 and No. 2 at the BO.

[Asyulus]

I mean, if Jurassic World was the only movie playing until Star Wars comes out it would make a billion in north America. Shockingly there are other movies playing.

Every weekend, it drops 50%, making it impossible to hit $1b domestic.

If that trend happens, $750m could happen.

[Asyulus]

Minions is crumbling.

Not yet.

[Asyulus]

What had the record before Shrek 3?

Shrek 2.

Edited July 12, 2015 by Antermanus