Ethan Hunt Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Dang I dunno why but I just found this now. So would have participated if I hadn't missed the deadline by 1 day You can still participate and write stuff for next trimester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted September 20, 2015 Author Share Posted September 20, 2015 Dang I dunno why but I just found this now. So would have participated if I hadn't missed the deadline by 1 day You're welcome to join in with the reviewing/predicting until the next trimester begins. Or if you'd rather not, I can shoot you a PM when the next trimester starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 I'll have to read the films before I make any predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 You're welcome to join in with the reviewing/predicting until the next trimester begins. Or if you'd rather not, I can shoot you a PM when the next trimester starts. That would be awesome! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Awesome that you could join us DAJK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 I'll do mine. May 1-3 The first Run & Gun did very well and it'll probably do a bit better this time as it's at the beginning of summer. 55m/116m May 8-10 Forty-Five Seconds doesn't have the faith-based following of Unbroken but Jesse Owens is a much bigger household name than Louis Zamperini so the opening will be about the same. Legs will be worse because it's summer. 30m/95m On the Record is based off an obscure musical, so I'm not predicting much for it. It'll break even though. 18m/47m May 15-17 Attack of the Movies is the successor to Pixels but there's no Sandler this time, so it should actually perform better. 28m/82m May 22-25 Monster Hunter will be the biggest movie of the summer, even with John Carter's director behind it. 75m/218m Shia LaBeouf, despite being in 3800 theaters, will be pretty much ignored. 7m/16m City Launcher/World Builder will be crushed by Monster Hunter. Unlike Monster Hunter it's PG so it'll have longevity, though not enough to make back its budget. 15m/54m May 29-31 Runaway Man will make its budget back on its first weekend, and will have great legs thanks to its great plot. 16m/55m June 5-7 I'm predicting Dresden Files 2 will do even better than the first. 53m/169m All Kinds of Bull will do well for its budget. 19m/69m June 12-14 Lazy River Squad isn't going to make much of a splash. 11m/40m June 19-21 In the battle of the video game adaptations, Pokemon will prevail because it's family-friendly. 62m/208m Day of the Tentacle won't be a slouch though. 20m/76m June 26-28 The Throne of Fire will burn up the money. 62m/183m July 3-5 The Parade is Independence Day-themed, so it'll do very well on its first frame then plummet afterwards. Its intended audience will go to A Love Worth Killing For instead. 31m/61m (ouch!) 2 Sharkz will have better longevity compared to The Parade, though it'll make less total than what its competitor will in its first weekend. 10m/28m July 10-12 A Love Worth Killing For will do a bit better than its predecessor. 44m/140m The Girl in the Red Dress is another one that will make back its budget on its first weekend. 13m/43m July 17-19 Peter and the Starcatchers is yet another Peter Pan film (and this time it's PG-13), so I can't see it making back its astronomical budget. 60m/157m The Line targets a completely different audience, so it'll perform similarly to Peter even though it comes out on the same weekend. 55m/149m July 24-26 The Pixies in the Backyard is the only family film for a month so it'll do fine. 43m/147m Sam Smith isn't too big of a music name so it'll perform even worse than Katy Perry. 6m/22m July 31-August 2 The Wedding Prey's premise is going to turn off many people. 17m/44m I honestly have no idea how The Scarecrow will do, so this will just be a guess. 12m/32m August 7-9 I also have no idea how The Departure will do. 12m/30m August 14-16 My Favorite Scientist is the second of two animated movies this summer so it'll do well with families. 43m/153m Raven Boys will do well with the YA crowd. 25m/92m August 21-23 I don't know Loony Ben's budget, so this is an estimate based off its plot and actors. 12m/30m August 28-30 Terminal Red, unlike the other horror movies, won't make its budget back on its first weekend, but it will in the long run. 8m/29m Hateful Eight Redux's re-release will do okay in limited. 4m/10m EDIT: Due to Rukaio's comments below I've hugely decreased my FavScientist prediction (and August predictions in general) and increased my Pokemon prediction. I think you're really underestimating A Love Worth Killing For. The best real world comps for that are probably Pitch Perfect 2 and 22 Jump Street, which both made about $180-190m. ALTDF had a very similar reception to those first films. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 (edited) Someone tell me if I'm wrong... But do we have three straight weekends (the 29th of May to the 12th of June) with only rated R released? Edit: Nevermind Dresden is PG-13, I thought it was R for some reason. Still only one release over 3 weeks in the Summer leaves a door extra wide open for Monster Hunter's legs and Pokémon's opening Edited September 21, 2015 by Ethan Hunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 (edited) July 3-5 2 Sharkz - 36/68 The Parade - 23/55 10-12 A Love Worth Killing For- 61/177 The Girl in the Red Dress- 18/42 17-19 Peter and the Starcarchers- 54/168 The Line- 64/231 24-26 Sam Smith: Stay With Me - 13/32 The Pixies in the Backyard - 32/104 31-2 The Scarecrow- 17/45 The Wedding Prey- 38/97 August 7-9 The Departure- 20/54 14-16 My Favorite Scientist- 18/41 The Raven Boys- 29/118 21-23 Loony Ben- 21/55 28-31 Terminal Red- 16/42 Hateful Eight Redux- 6/16 Edited September 27, 2015 by Ethan Hunt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 (edited) The Dresden Files: Fool Moon - $66.07m All Kinds of Bull - $21.19m The Lazy River Squad - $25.74m Pokémon Mystery Dungeon - $68.42m The Day of the Tentacle - $18.22m The Throne of Fire - $56.67m Edited September 27, 2015 by C00k13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 Dresden Files 2 - $78.3m/$241.5m All Kinds of Bull - $16.6m/$55.8m Lazy River Squad - $22.6m/$76.2m Pokemon Mystery Dungeon - $61.8m/$218.4m Day of the Tentacle - $26.5m/$102.9m Throne of Fire - $64.3m/$174.5m 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 2 Sharkz - $8.17m The Parade - $23.65m A Love Worth Killing For - $55.43m The Girl in the Red Dress - $20.14m Peter and the Starcatchers - $48.79m The Line - $72.05m Sam Smith: Stay With Me - $9.87m The Pixies in the Backyard - $41.16m The Wedding Prey - $26.29m The Scarecrow - $16.89m The Departure - $22.35m My Favorite Scientist - $30.61m The Raven Boys - $30.39m Loony Ben - $16.77m Terminal Red - $14.32m Hateful Eight Redux - $7.02m 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 2 Sharkz - $16.3m/$35.7m The Parade - $21.4m/$62.6m The Girl In The Red Dress - $18.9m/$49.2m A Love Worth Killing For - $58.3m/$184.6m Peter & The Starcatchers - $47.2m/$164.3m The Line - $55.3m/$227.1m Sam Smith: Stay With Me - $8.6m/$23.7m The Pixies in the Backyard - $24.5m/$82.9m The Wedding Prey - $25.2m/$103.5m The Scarecrow - $14.8m/$51.7m 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
department store basement Posted September 27, 2015 Share Posted September 27, 2015 (edited) The Parade - $21.4m/$62.6m I wonder why you think The Parade will have almost a 3x multiplier. It's holiday-themed (do you ever hear of a Christmas movie having legs beyond Christmas for example?), it has the same audience as ALWKF (which comes only a week later and will eat it up), and if the rest of the reviews are like Ethan's then it won't have too good WOM. (Also, while Matt Damon is usually a big draw, the fact that he is starring in a comedy would sound pretty weird to the average movie-goer.) I personally don't even think The Parade will have a 2x multiplier, and will finish lower than Get Him to the Greek (which had the same director and *much* better jokes) did in 2010. Edited September 28, 2015 by department store basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 Finally got around to doing my June predicts. As I mentioned in my review I've been a bit slow recently due to my course starting back up. June 5-7 Dresden Files looks like it’ll be another of the stronger players this summers, coming off a critically acclaimed, Oscar-winning (somehow) first film. And reviews so far have been equally top notch. Plus it’s a different enough kind of blockbuster that I can see it running alongside Monster Hunter without any major mishaps. Expect a strong increase in OW and probably some fairly good legs for a sequel. As for All Kinds of Bull, I really don’t know how a melodrama is going to perform at the moment. Theoretically it’s not really going to clash with anything, but it’s not got a great amount of appeal. It’ll probably depend on what the reviews are like. Don’t see it going much over $18m though. Dresden Files: Fool Moon- $73.6m/$202.5m All Kinds of Bull- $14.8m/$41.3m June 12-14 Lazy River Squad is probably going to sink like a rock. Fairly unappealing premise combined with being stuck between Dresden Files and Day of the Tentacle, both of which have strong comic/action roots and are likely going to be more appealing. Then again, it is the only release this weekend, but things still don’t look good Lazy River Squad- $18.3m/$40.2m June 19-21 Pokemon Mystery Dungeon is basically close to being the ESP of this trimester, in so much as it’s the only animated film of the main summer months (May-July) and the only significant kid-friendly movie. Indeed, I think it has a strong possibility of opening above ESP, thanks to both the stronger summer spot and the popular established brand. Legs, on the other hand, maybe a bit shakier. As Numbers has repeatedly pointed out, the Pokemon franchise has a history of being frontloaded in CAYOM. Early reviews admittedly haven’t been that kind either (although both reviewers admitted unfamiliarity with the Pokemon franchise so it’s hard to call them the target demographic). However, the lack of competition (as well as animated films generally having better legs than live action ones) should stop the legs being a disaster and it still has a fairly strong chance of clawing its way past $200m. Day of the Tentacle, meanwhile, should still make a fair buck thanks to being a more solid blockbuster-ish entry (of which we are lacking) and the fact it doesn’t really clash with PMD. Probably nothing to write home about, but a solid total nonetheless. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon- $86.5m/$210.3m Day of the Tentacle- $30.2m/$85.1m June 26-28 Throne of Fire should perform pretty well for itself, largely due to the utter lack of real blockbusters this summer. The first film got fairly lukewarm reviews (and I continue to maintain my opinion that it probably shouldn’t have been allowed to exist), but it had solid enough legs for it to support a strong increase. Exactly how this film coming only one year after the last will affect demand is something to be taken into account through. The Throne of Fire- $65.7m/$162.1m 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 May: Run and Gun 2: 61/142m On the Record: 17/51m Forty-Five Seconds of Glory: 34/92m Attack of the Movies: 27/76m Monster Hunter: 95/117/272m Shia LaBeouf- The Movie: 4/5/9m City Launcher/World Builder: 14/17/39m Runaway Man: 12/36m June: The Dresden Files: Fool Moon: 64/218m All Kinds of Bull: 15/43m The Lazy River Squad: 17/44m Day of the Tentacle: 31/93m Pokemon Mystery Dungen: 88/216m The Throne of Fire: 64/166m July: The Parade: 16/30m 2 Sharkz: 8/21m The Girl in the Red Dress: 19/47m A Love Worth Killing For: 70/192m Peter and the Starcatchers: 50/160m The Line: 59/212m Sam Smith: Stay with Me: 9/25m The Pixies in the Backyard: 36/115m The Wedding Prey: 24/53m The Scarecrow: 23/67m August The Departure: 25/65m The Raven Boys: 26/83m My Favorite Scientist: 16/38m Looney Ben: 19/49m Terminal Red: 15/34m The Hateful Eight Redeux: 7/19m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted October 12, 2015 Author Share Posted October 12, 2015 And here are my July predicts. July 3-5 The Parade is staking a lot on cashing in on that 4th of July money. Exactly how well it will do that is up in the air, however. A Parade doesn’t exactly scream Independence Day to me. Still, assuming it does cash in on that audience, its appeal does seem fairly limited at best. 2Sharkz, on the other hand, is coming off a fairly despised first film and should (hopefully) drop and flop. I hope. If I’m lucky. The Parade- $28.9m/$57.2m 2Sharks- $5.1m/$10.3m July 10-12 A Love Worth Killing For seems likely to be one of the more surefire hits of the summer and one of its biggest players. Again, the utter lack of blockbuster competition is one big reason why (seriously, I’m kinda regretting not putting in my fillers at this point) but the first film was a strong hit critically and financially as well. I don’t think it’ll grow quite as well as Dresden Files, especially with The Line coming next week, but a strong increase is all but guaranteed. The Girl in the Red Dress, meanwhile, might get a decent OW due to the lack of other horrors, but overall will probably be sunk by its poor reviews. A Love Worth Killing For- $68.7m/$194.2m The Girl in the Red Dress- $14.3/$30.2m July 17-19 The Line, like Crusade last tri, is another movie I’d call a wildcard. I could easily see it being one of the biggest breakout hits this tri or simply performing averagely. Its strong critical reception should definitely be a boon though. The only thing hurting it is that this spot of July is actually surprisingly competitive with both ALWKF and Peter and the Starcatchers potentially fighting it. But with its high critical reception, I could see this possibly coming out on top. Then again, it won't be a massive surprise if it doesn't. As for Peter and the Starcatchers, I’m still confused why it was made a PG13. It could’ve had its scope of the full family audience (especially those fond of Disney) but nope. I guess that’s just more for Pokemon. The limited blockbuster competition could still help it get a good total though. The Line- $65.3m/$210.3m Peter and the Starcatchers- $45.3m/$132.6m July 24-26 The Pixies in the Backyard I’m not 100% certain about. On the one hand, like last trimester, family offerings have been slim-to-nonexistant and this film is in a good spot to take advantage of that. On the other hand, unlike Timmy’s Winter Vacation and E.S.P, Pixies doesn’t really have the cross-generational appeal or critical heft that helped make those other two films such a success. So while it should still make a good total, but I doubt it’ll be the breakout hits through two were. As for Sam Smith, as I mentioned in my review, I have no idea who he is (largely since I don’t keep up with popular music), thus I have no idea how well his concert movie will do. So I’m not going to bother guessing. The Pixies in the Backyard- $38.3m/$105.3m Sam Smith: Stay with Me- Hell if I know. July 31-2 As much as I hate to say it, The Wedding Prey will probably do fairly well. I’d like to say the poor reviews would hurt it but we live in a world where Tammy and Adam Sandler films make bank. And, with little comedic competition it’s probably going to do the same. As for The Scarecrow, it should carve out a nice little niche for itself. Coming only a couple weeks after ALWKF and The Line will probably mean it won’t expand much beyond that niche, but I could see it performing on the level of a small Neeson flick (real life Neeson, not CAYOM). The Wedding Prey- $25.3m/$91.4m The Scarecrow- $15.8m/$50.2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted October 12, 2015 Author Share Posted October 12, 2015 And finally August. I decided to forgo my usual analysis this month since there's really barely anything interesting to talk about here. It'd be basically be 4 entries of me regretting the fact that I didn't put some fillers here because, aside from that weekend on the 14th, this month is basically empty. August 7-9 The Departure- $18.3m/$40.6m August 14-16 My Favourite Scientist- $38.1/$120.2m The Raven Boys- $23.1m/$50.1m August 21-26 Loony Ben- $6.2m/$13.8m August 28-30 Terminal Red- $14.2m/$26.4m H8ful Redux Rerelease- $4.2m/$9.1m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Ok great. I will aim to get actuals out this coming weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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