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CAYOM Y10: Part 2- Predictions

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Dang I dunno why but I just found this now. So would have participated if I hadn't missed the deadline by 1 day :rofl:

You're welcome to join in with the reviewing/predicting until the next trimester begins. Or if you'd rather not, I can shoot you a PM when the next trimester starts. 

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I'll do mine.

May 1-3

The first Run & Gun did very well and it'll probably do a bit better this time as it's at the beginning of summer. 55m/116m

May 8-10

Forty-Five Seconds doesn't have the faith-based following of Unbroken but Jesse Owens is a much bigger household name than Louis Zamperini so the opening will be about the same. Legs will be worse because it's summer. 30m/95m

On the Record is based off an obscure musical, so I'm not predicting much for it. It'll break even though. 18m/47m

May 15-17

Attack of the Movies is the successor to Pixels but there's no Sandler this time, so it should actually perform better. 28m/82m

May 22-25

Monster Hunter will be the biggest movie of the summer, even with John Carter's director behind it. 75m/218m

Shia LaBeouf, despite being in 3800 theaters, will be pretty much ignored. 7m/16m

City Launcher/World Builder will be crushed by Monster Hunter. Unlike Monster Hunter it's PG so it'll have longevity, though not enough to make back its budget. 15m/54m

May 29-31

Runaway Man will make its budget back on its first weekend, and will have great legs thanks to its great plot. 16m/55m

June 5-7

I'm predicting Dresden Files 2 will do even better than the first. 53m/169m

All Kinds of Bull will do well for its budget. 19m/69m

June 12-14

Lazy River Squad isn't going to make much of a splash. 11m/40m

June 19-21

In the battle of the video game adaptations, Pokemon will prevail because it's family-friendly. 62m/208m

Day of the Tentacle won't be a slouch though. 20m/76m

June 26-28

The Throne of Fire will burn up the money. 62m/183m

July 3-5

The Parade is Independence Day-themed, so it'll do very well on its first frame then plummet afterwards. Its intended audience will go to A Love Worth Killing For instead. 31m/61m (ouch!)

2 Sharkz will have better longevity compared to The Parade, though it'll make less total than what its competitor will in its first weekend. 10m/28m

July 10-12

A Love Worth Killing For will do a bit better than its predecessor. 44m/140m

The Girl in the Red Dress is another one that will make back its budget on its first weekend. 13m/43m

July 17-19

Peter and the Starcatchers is yet another Peter Pan film (and this time it's PG-13), so I can't see it making back its astronomical budget. 60m/157m

The Line targets a completely different audience, so it'll perform similarly to Peter even though it comes out on the same weekend. 55m/149m

July 24-26

The Pixies in the Backyard is the only family film for a month so it'll do fine. 43m/147m

Sam Smith isn't too big of a music name so it'll perform even worse than Katy Perry. 6m/22m

July 31-August 2

The Wedding Prey's premise is going to turn off many people. 17m/44m

I honestly have no idea how The Scarecrow will do, so this will just be a guess. 12m/32m

August 7-9

I also have no idea how The Departure will do. 12m/30m

August 14-16

My Favorite Scientist is the second of two animated movies this summer so it'll do well with families. 43m/153m

Raven Boys will do well with the YA crowd. 25m/92m

August 21-23

I don't know Loony Ben's budget, so this is an estimate based off its plot and actors. 12m/30m

August 28-30

Terminal Red, unlike the other horror movies, won't make its budget back on its first weekend, but it will in the long run. 8m/29m

Hateful Eight Redux's re-release will do okay in limited. 4m/10m

EDIT: Due to Rukaio's comments below I've hugely decreased my FavScientist prediction (and August predictions in general) and increased my Pokemon prediction.

I think you're really underestimating A Love Worth Killing For. The best real world comps for that are probably Pitch Perfect 2 and 22 Jump Street, which both made about $180-190m. ALTDF had a very similar reception to those first films.

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Someone tell me if I'm wrong... But do we have three straight weekends (the 29th of May to the 12th of June) with only rated R released?

Edit: Nevermind Dresden is PG-13, I thought it was R for some reason. Still only one release over 3 weeks in the Summer leaves a door extra wide open for Monster Hunter's legs and Pokémon's opening

Edited by Ethan Hunt
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2 Sharkz - 36/68

The Parade - 23/55


A Love Worth Killing For- 61/177

The Girl in the Red Dress- 18/42


Peter and the Starcarchers- 54/168

The Line- 64/231


Sam Smith: Stay With Me - 13/32

The Pixies in the Backyard - 32/104


The Scarecrow- 17/45

The Wedding Prey- 38/97



The Departure- 20/54


My Favorite Scientist- 18/41

The Raven Boys- 29/118


Loony Ben- 21/55


Terminal Red- 16/42

Hateful Eight Redux- 6/16

Edited by Ethan Hunt
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The Dresden Files: Fool Moon - $66.07m

All Kinds of Bull - $21.19m


The Lazy River Squad - $25.74m


Pokémon Mystery Dungeon - $68.42m

The Day of the Tentacle - $18.22m


The Throne of Fire - $56.67m

Edited by C00k13
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2 Sharkz - $8.17m

The Parade - $23.65m


A Love Worth Killing For - $55.43m

The Girl in the Red Dress - $20.14m


Peter and the Starcatchers - $48.79m

The Line - $72.05m


Sam Smith: Stay With Me - $9.87m

The Pixies in the Backyard - $41.16m


The Wedding Prey - $26.29m

The Scarecrow - $16.89m


The Departure - $22.35m


My Favorite Scientist - $30.61m

The Raven Boys - $30.39m


Loony Ben - $16.77m


Terminal Red - $14.32m

Hateful Eight Redux - $7.02m

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2 Sharkz - $16.3m/$35.7m

The Parade - $21.4m/$62.6m


The Girl In The Red Dress - $18.9m/$49.2m

A Love Worth Killing For - $58.3m/$184.6m


Peter & The Starcatchers - $47.2m/$164.3m

The Line - $55.3m/$227.1m


Sam Smith: Stay With Me - $8.6m/$23.7m

The Pixies in the Backyard - $24.5m/$82.9m


The Wedding Prey - $25.2m/$103.5m

The Scarecrow - $14.8m/$51.7m

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The Parade - $21.4m/$62.6m


I wonder why you think The Parade will have almost a 3x multiplier. It's holiday-themed (do you ever hear of a Christmas movie having legs beyond Christmas for example?), it has the same audience as ALWKF (which comes only a week later and will eat it up), and if the rest of the reviews are like Ethan's then it won't have too good WOM. (Also, while Matt Damon is usually a big draw, the fact that he is starring in a comedy would sound pretty weird to the average movie-goer.)


I personally don't even think The Parade will have a 2x multiplier, and will finish lower than Get Him to the Greek (which had the same director and *much* better jokes) did in 2010.

Edited by department store basement
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Finally got around to doing my June predicts. As I mentioned in my review I've been a bit slow recently due to my course starting back up.


June 5-7


Dresden Files looks like it’ll be another of the stronger players this summers, coming off a critically acclaimed, Oscar-winning (somehow) first film. And reviews so far have been equally top notch. Plus it’s a different enough kind of blockbuster that I can see it running alongside Monster Hunter without any major mishaps. Expect a strong increase in OW and probably some fairly good legs for a sequel.


As for All Kinds of Bull, I really don’t know how a melodrama is going to perform at the moment. Theoretically it’s not really going to clash with anything, but it’s not got a great amount of appeal. It’ll probably depend on what the reviews are like. Don’t see it going much over $18m though.


Dresden Files: Fool Moon- $73.6m/$202.5m

All Kinds of Bull- $14.8m/$41.3m



June 12-14


Lazy River Squad is probably going to sink like a rock. Fairly unappealing premise combined with being stuck between Dresden Files and Day of the Tentacle, both of which have strong comic/action roots and are likely going to be more appealing. Then again, it is the only release this weekend, but things still don’t look good


Lazy River Squad- $18.3m/$40.2m



June 19-21


Pokemon Mystery Dungeon is basically close to being the ESP of this trimester, in so much as it’s the only animated film of the main summer months (May-July) and the only significant kid-friendly movie. Indeed, I think it has a strong possibility of opening above ESP, thanks to both the stronger summer spot and the popular established brand. Legs, on the other hand, maybe a bit shakier. As Numbers has repeatedly pointed out, the Pokemon franchise has a history of being frontloaded in CAYOM. Early reviews admittedly haven’t been that kind either (although both reviewers admitted unfamiliarity with the Pokemon franchise so it’s hard to call them the target demographic). However, the lack of competition (as well as animated films generally having better legs than live action ones) should stop the legs being a disaster and it still has a fairly strong chance of clawing its way past $200m.


Day of the Tentacle, meanwhile, should still make a fair buck thanks to being a more solid blockbuster-ish entry (of which we are lacking) and the fact it doesn’t really clash with PMD. Probably nothing to write home about, but a solid total nonetheless.


Pokemon Mystery Dungeon- $86.5m/$210.3m

Day of the Tentacle- $30.2m/$85.1m



June 26-28


Throne of Fire should perform pretty well for itself, largely due to the utter lack of real blockbusters this summer. The first film got fairly lukewarm reviews (and I continue to maintain my opinion that it probably shouldn’t have been allowed to exist), but it had solid enough legs for it to support a strong increase. Exactly how this film coming only one year after the last will affect demand is something to be taken into account through.


The Throne of Fire- $65.7m/$162.1m

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Run and Gun 2: 61/142m

On the Record: 17/51m

Forty-Five Seconds of Glory: 34/92m

Attack of the Movies: 27/76m

Monster Hunter: 95/117/272m

Shia LaBeouf- The Movie: 4/5/9m

City Launcher/World Builder: 14/17/39m

Runaway Man: 12/36m


The Dresden Files: Fool Moon: 64/218m

All Kinds of Bull: 15/43m

The Lazy River Squad: 17/44m

Day of the Tentacle: 31/93m

Pokemon Mystery Dungen: 88/216m

The Throne of Fire: 64/166m


The Parade: 16/30m

2 Sharkz: 8/21m

The Girl in the Red Dress: 19/47m

A Love Worth Killing For: 70/192m

Peter and the Starcatchers: 50/160m

The Line: 59/212m

Sam Smith: Stay with Me: 9/25m

The Pixies in the Backyard: 36/115m

The Wedding Prey: 24/53m

The Scarecrow: 23/67m


The Departure: 25/65m

The Raven Boys: 26/83m

My Favorite Scientist: 16/38m

Looney Ben: 19/49m

Terminal Red: 15/34m

The Hateful Eight Redeux: 7/19m

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And here are my July predicts.


July 3-5


The Parade is staking a lot on cashing in on that 4th of July money. Exactly how well it will do that is up in the air, however. A Parade doesn’t exactly scream Independence Day to me. Still, assuming it does cash in on that audience, its appeal does seem fairly limited at best.


2Sharkz, on the other hand, is coming off a fairly despised first film and should (hopefully) drop and flop. I hope. If I’m lucky.


The Parade- $28.9m/$57.2m

2Sharks- $5.1m/$10.3m



July 10-12


A Love Worth Killing For seems likely to be one of the more surefire hits of the summer and one of its biggest players. Again, the utter lack of blockbuster competition is one big reason why (seriously, I’m kinda regretting not putting in my fillers at this point) but the first film was a strong hit critically and financially as well. I don’t think it’ll grow quite as well as Dresden Files, especially with The Line coming next week, but a strong increase is all but guaranteed.


The Girl in the Red Dress, meanwhile, might get a decent OW due to the lack of other horrors, but overall will probably be sunk by its poor reviews.


A Love Worth Killing For- $68.7m/$194.2m

The Girl in the Red Dress- $14.3/$30.2m



July 17-19


The Line, like Crusade last tri, is another movie I’d call a wildcard. I could easily see it being one of the biggest breakout hits this tri or simply performing averagely. Its strong critical reception should definitely be a boon though. The only thing hurting it is that this spot of July is actually surprisingly competitive with both ALWKF and Peter and the Starcatchers potentially fighting it. But with its high critical reception, I could see this possibly coming out on top. Then again, it won't be a massive surprise if it doesn't.


As for Peter and the Starcatchers, I’m still confused why it was made a PG13. It could’ve had its scope of the full family audience (especially those fond of Disney) but nope. I guess that’s just more for Pokemon. The limited blockbuster competition could still help it get a good total though.


The Line- $65.3m/$210.3m

Peter and the Starcatchers- $45.3m/$132.6m



July 24-26


The Pixies in the Backyard I’m not 100% certain about. On the one hand, like last trimester, family offerings have been slim-to-nonexistant and this film is in a good spot to take advantage of that. On the other hand, unlike Timmy’s Winter Vacation and E.S.P, Pixies doesn’t really have the cross-generational appeal or critical heft that helped make those other two films such a success. So while it should still make a good total, but I doubt it’ll be the breakout hits through two were.


As for Sam Smith, as I mentioned in my review, I have no idea who he is (largely since I don’t keep up with popular music), thus I have no idea how well his concert movie will do. So I’m not going to bother guessing.


The Pixies in the Backyard- $38.3m/$105.3m

Sam Smith: Stay with Me- Hell if I know.


July 31-2


As much as I hate to say it, The Wedding Prey will probably do fairly well. I’d like to say the poor reviews would hurt it but we live in a world where Tammy and Adam Sandler films make bank. And, with little comedic competition it’s probably going to do the same.


As for The Scarecrow, it should carve out a nice little niche for itself. Coming only a couple weeks after ALWKF and The Line will probably mean it won’t expand much beyond that niche, but I could see it performing on the level of a small Neeson flick (real life Neeson, not CAYOM).


The Wedding Prey- $25.3m/$91.4m

The Scarecrow- $15.8m/$50.2m

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And finally August. I decided to forgo my usual analysis this month since there's really barely anything interesting to talk about here. It'd be basically be 4 entries of me regretting the fact that I didn't put some fillers here because, aside from that weekend on the 14th, this month is basically empty.


August 7-9


The Departure- $18.3m/$40.6m



August 14-16


My Favourite Scientist- $38.1/$120.2m

The Raven Boys- $23.1m/$50.1m



August 21-26


Loony Ben- $6.2m/$13.8m



August 28-30


Terminal Red- $14.2m/$26.4m

H8ful Redux Rerelease- $4.2m/$9.1m

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