rukaio101 Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 Exactly what it says on the tin. This is the thread where we predict the Box Office for Year 10 films and generally kneel before the wrathful hand of Numbers (both the poster and the mathematical kind.). At the moment, obviously we're doing January down to April. Feel free to post your predictions as to how each film will perform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) January 3-5 The Cube- 5/16M Heads or Tails- 19/51M 10-12 Call of the Reverent-27/62M 17-19 The Good the Bad and the Mechanical- 39( 4-day)/82M Two Lonely Zookeepers- 28 (4-day)/59M 24-26 Timmy's Winter Vacation- 12/53M 31-2 Taylor Swift 1989 concert film- 13/29M Ophodophobia- 11/25M February 7-9 Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Part 2 19/78M 14-17 Moses (4 day) 83/185M That was a Long Time Ago (4 day) 26/49M 21-23 The Disappointment- 23/54M 28-1 The Executioner- 11/31M March 6-8 Black Friday- 9/35M Jurassic Knights- 63/189M 13-15 Second to Singapore- 32/108 Rhino Riders- 14/38M (slaughtered by Jurassic Knights) 20-22 On A Mountain- 26/68M 27-29 ESP- 62/203M April 6-8 Russian Roulette- 31/92M 13-15 Crusader- 32/87M Scrooge McDuck: Imax Experience- 14/46M 20-22 Daisy Lemonade- 8/25M Ciaphas Cain- 47/130M 27-29 MST3K: Expedecade- 8/26M Kensington- 17/54M Edited August 4, 2015 by Ethan Hunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) Jan. Heads or Tails- 14.8/38.7 The Cube- 4/11 The Call of the Revenant- 28.3/60 The Good, the Bad, and the Mechanical- 35.5/42.4/102.7 Two Lonely Zookeepers- 18.6/22.2/65 Timmy's Winter Vacation- 11.8/ 43.6 1989- 15.6/26.6 Ophidophobia- 41.5/127.2 Real Gross: 14.5/32.7 I thought it was so hilariously bad that it deserves to succeed at the box office XD Feb. Phoenix Wright Part 2- 20.2/79.3 Moses- 21.5/25.8/70.6 That Was a Long Time Ago- 14.1/18.7/ 39.4 The Disappointment- 5.7/12.6 The Executioner- 17.5/45.7 Mar. Jurassic Knights- 52.8/134.2 Black Friday- 12/31.5 Rhino Riders- 30.5/93.3 Second to Singapore- 18.2/ 56.9 On a Mountain- 18.4/42.5 E.S.P.- 79.9/251.1 Apr. Russian Roulette- 21.8/65.9 Crusader- 68.2/199.9 Scrooge McDuck IMAX Special Edition- 15.3/55 Ciaphas Cain- 24.4/73 Daisy Lemonade- 7/23.9 MST3K: Expedecade- 10.2/30.7 Kensington- 20.3/48.3 Edited July 29, 2015 by Imperator Rorschach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CelestialFairyIX Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) Jan. Rendezvous - $12.7 / 64.5 million, CAS I'll update the list later when I'm home. Edited July 28, 2015 by CelestialFairyIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 If Blank wants to provide Year 9 holdover actuals, that'll be helpful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 (edited) I thought it was so hlariously bad that it deserves to succeed at the box office XD That was the intention (it's from the director of Eight Legged Freaks after all) so I'm glad to hear I suceeded on that front Edited July 28, 2015 by C00k13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lamamama Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 (edited) January Heads or Tails 17/44 The Cube- 4.5/13 The Call of the Reverent- 21/48 The Good The Bad and the Mechanical- 34/40.5/96 Two Lonely Zookeepers- 21/26/66 Timmy's Winter Vacation- 9/45 1989- 14/28 Ophidophobia- 17/37 February Phoenix Wright- 16/61 Moses 48/55/125 That Was a Long Time Ago- 20/23/47 The Disappointment- 29/67 The Executioner- 15/43 March Black Friday-11/40 Jurassic Knights- 58/163 Rhino Riders- 24/62 Second to Singapore- 25/65 On a Mountain- 29/71 E.S.P- 74/241 April Russian Roulette- 28/81 Crusader- 63/174 Scrooge McDuck-Imax- 13/46 Ciaphad Cain- 27/76 Daisy Lemonade- 10/31 MST3K: Escapade- 9.5/29 Kensington- 19/55 Edited July 29, 2015 by lamamama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Films Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Tbh I think these 1989 predictions are far too low. She has the biggest fanbase and her popularity are simillar with Bieber and Montana at the time of their concert movies and think 1989 could do at least 30M-35M on opening weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Tbh I think these 1989 predictions are far too low. She has the biggest fanbase and her popularity are simillar with Bieber and Montana at the time of their concert movies and think 1989 could do at least 30M-35M on opening weekend. There could have been potential for a bigger number if this was the first Taylor Swift film but since you have done several of them it has kinda diluted its potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Tbh I think these 1989 predictions are far too low. She has the biggest fanbase and her popularity are simillar with Bieber and Montana at the time of their concert movies and think 1989 could do at least 30M-35M on opening weekend The One Direction movie made $17 million OW. I don't see why 1989 wouldn't open around the same range. Also, a 30-35 million opening? That's is pushing it a little too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted August 4, 2015 Author Share Posted August 4, 2015 Still in the middle of writing up my predicts, but yeah, I'm with everyone else on this one. Expecting 1989 to reach $30+ OW is seriously pushing it. I think it'd be lucky to reach $20m OW. There is one January movie though, that I seriously think everyone is lowballing. And that's Timmy's Winter Vacation. Seriously, it and E.S.P are the only kid-friendly family movies released this trimester (except possibly Rhino Riders, but that's going to be crushed between Jurassic Knights and E.S.P). And E.S.P is in March. TWV's basically got the entire kid audience to itself for January/February and has decent enough reviews to support it. It's going to break out big time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 Keep the predictions coming in and I'll start working on numbers this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 (edited) Heads or Tails - $18.78m The Cube - $5.56m The Call of the Revenant - $20.06m The Good, the Bad and the Mechanical - $41.72m / $50.02m Two Lonely Zookeepers - $16.87m / $20.21m Timmy's Winter Vacation - $20.32m 1989 - $17.43m Ophidiophobia - $17.82m Pheonix Wright: Ace Attorney Part 2 - $25.47m Moses - $27.64m / $32.06m That Was a Long Time Ago - $20.42m /$23.02m The Dissapointment - $14.62m The Executioner - $19.08m Edited August 6, 2015 by C00k13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted August 4, 2015 Share Posted August 4, 2015 I get my predictions up soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 (edited) Black Friday - $12.09m Jurassic Knights - $42.61m Rhino Riders - $20.64m Second To Singapore - $27.24m On a Mountain - $25.66m E.S.P - $75.17m Edited August 6, 2015 by C00k13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted August 6, 2015 Author Share Posted August 6, 2015 Okay, figured it's probably time I start posting my predictions. I've done my usual analysis, hence why they've taken so long. Nearly done with February, so that might get posted later today. January 3-5 Can’t say I expect much of a breakout for either of these movies. I suspect Heads or Tails will perform well enough for a basic action/heist movie. Not sure about the Cube though. I really struggle to see people, even documentary fanatics, being interested enough in Rubik Cubes to watch a near 90 minute film about them. Heads or Tails- $19.3m/$60.2m The Cube- $2.1m/$5.4m January 10-12 Can’t say I see much of a breakout for this one either. It might garner a good OW, but it’s going to drop like a rock 2nd weekend, thanks to poor reviews, typical horror-frontloadedness and the large competition from TGTBATM. Call of the Revenant- $20.3m/$44.2m January 17-19 Interested to see how TGTBATM performs. The first film received solid reviews and performed well despite a worse spot and harsher competition, so an increase seems fairly likely. Just how big an increase is currently up in the air, but things look bright. I’m also interested to see how the legs hold up. The first film was fairly frontloaded thanks both to its heavy horror roots and the strong competition. It’ll be interesting to see if this film follows suit or whether the shift closer to Sci-fi/action will help it more. The reviews have been stronger as well. Two Lonely Zookeepers is unlikely to feel much in the way of competition from TGTBATM, being a straight low-key drama. However, the fairly dismal reviews aren’t going to do it any favours. I could see it garnering a slightly higher OW than usual thanks to Cruise’s presence, but it’s going to struggle to garner any real legs. TGTBATM- $36.8m/$45.3m (4-day)/$114.6m Two Lonely Zookeepers- $16.8m/$20.2m/$51.8m January 24-26 Genuinely surprised people have been lowballing this one so much. To repeat what I’ve already said, there are only two real major family movies this trimester. This and E.S.P. And E.S.P’s not until March. Aside from maybe some competition from Moses (although that’s still a PG-13) and some holdover from last year’s Beauty and the Beast, this basically has the entire family demographic to itself for Jan/Feb (Heck, aside from 1989 (which has limited appeal, it’s the only film in January/February rated lower than PG-13)). Certainly the first film didn’t do great, but this stands alone from it enough that it’s unlikely to matter and has fairly decent reviews as well. Perhaps I’m highballing it a bit much, I’m expecting this to be a big breakout player. Timmy’s Summer Vacation- $30.3m/$112.9m January 31- February 2 Both of these should do reasonably enough, but not outstanding considering their limited appeal. Ophidophobia may suffer if TGTBATM has good legs though. Ophidophobia- $16.8m/$43.2m 1989- $13.4m/$22.3m 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 If Timmy really broke out that big I would greenlight the shit out of a cinematic universe of these movies while laughing so hard all the way to the bank. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted August 7, 2015 Author Share Posted August 7, 2015 February 7-9 The first Phoenix Wright movie had the unfortunate luck to be subject to Blank’s numberfuckery trapped in the midst of 4 $50m+ openers, so it didn’t get a great opening. However, it did come out with an A+ cinema score and a very strong multiplier. So it’s not unreasonable to expect Part 2 to have a pretty strong increase, especially with much weaker competition and reviews currently on the same level as the first film. Phoenix Wright Part 2- $22.3m/$80.6m February 14-17 Moses I expect to have a pretty strong OW performance. It’s the first big budget blockbuster of the year and the only one until Jurassic Knights turns up. However, the fairly dismal reviews it’s received so far could cut into its legs. But I doubt it’ll do as bad as Exodus: Gods and Kings though. That was a Long Time Ago may also do fairly well for itself, at least on opening night. Reviews also haven’t been strong, but it doesn’t clash too strongly with Moses and the Valentines Day release is going to give it a strong boost. It is going to be very frontloaded on that first day though. Moses- $53.4m/$60.3m/$152.6m That was a Long Time ago- $20.2/$23.9/$68.1m February 21-23 The Disappointment is going to do exactly what it says on the tin. Worst reviews of the Tri (so far) + Coming after a big holiday weekend = Bomb. The Disappointment- $6.6m/$15.7m February 28-March 1 An Executioner break out seems unlikely. Certainly the action crowd is a little starved since TGTBATM, but Statham’s an unreliable draw and it’s hard to tell just how much it will be overshadowed by Jurassic Knights the next week. For now, I’ll guess a modest start. The Executioner- $16.3m/$49.2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted August 8, 2015 Share Posted August 8, 2015 Not that it matters much Rukaio, but if you had made Part 2's initial release date of October Year 9, my plan was always for a significant increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted August 10, 2015 Author Share Posted August 10, 2015 Hey Numbers, any clue when the actuals are going to start coming in? I thought you were going to start working on them this weekend. Or are you just waiting for people to finish up reviews/predicts? Speaking of, here are my March predicts. March 6-8 So, Jurassic Knights is likely to do well. Interesting concept, dinosaurs, first action-heavy blockbuster of the year, dinosaurs, little-to-no-competition and dinosaurs. At the moment, the only real thing that may cause a stumble are the currently lukewarm reviews (and I suspect Numbers’s may push it into Rotten). Then again, with a film like this, it’s difficult to tell exactly how much the reviews are going to affect it. It’s action and dinosaur heavy enough that I could see WOM among the GA being good regardless of lukewarm critical opinion. Ah well, only time (and Numbers) will tell whether Jurassic Knights 2: Cretaceous Crusade will be a thing. (And yes, I have an entire list of puns for sequels. Prehistoric Paladins, Sauropod Skirmish… On second thoughts, maybe it’s better if this flops.) On the lesser side of things Black Friday may perform reasonably for a cheap horror movie, since we’re a bit lacking on horrors, but its format means you shouldn’t be expecting any massive numbers. Jurassic Knights- $61.5m/$163.2m Black Friday- $10.2m/$28.6m March 13-15 Rhino Riders is getting crushed. Coming a week after Jurassic Knights, a film with a similar premise but with dinosaurs (and dinosaurs > rhinos), more action and much better/higher effects and budget. Even any under-13 audience it might hope to steal from JK is going to be taken by E.S.P a couple weeks later. Rhino Riders might actually struggle to even take No 1 this weekend from Second to Singapore or Jurassic Knights’s 2nd weekend. Second to Singapore, on the other hand, is unlikely to have trouble against JK, being a stoner comedy aimed at a different market. And with the decent reviews so far (for a comedy) it might do fairly well for itself, especially with the lack of many big comedies so far. So, I’m going to hedge my bets and guess it beats Rhino Riders Second to Singapore- $25.7m/$83.2m Rhino Riders- $20.3m/$53.4m March 20-22 Not entirely sure where the $25m+ predicts for On a Mountain are coming from. Even with above average reviews, if Jurassic Knights holds, it’ll take a beating. It’ll probably top the Executioner, but that’s it. On a Mountain- $19.3m/$52.3m March 27-29 I think we’re all in agreement that the sky’s pretty much the limit for E.S.P. Zero animation competition all Tri, very little family competition period and excellent reviews (so far). Not to mention coming from the same studio (albeit not production company) behind the recent first animated Best Picture of CAYOM 2.0. That’ll give it a boost. Barring a surprise breakout somewhere, it seems fairly logical to assume that this will be the highest grossing film of the trimester. E.S.P- $82.5m/$272.4m 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...