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CAYOM Y10: Part 2- Predictions

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    Exactly what it says on the tin.

     

    This is the thread where we predict the Box Office for Year 10 films and generally kneel before the wrathful hand of Numbers (both the poster and the mathematical kind.). At the moment, obviously we're doing January down to April. Feel free to post your predictions as to how each film will perform.

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    January

    3-5

    The Cube- 5/16M

    Heads or Tails- 19/51M

    10-12

    Call of the Reverent-27/62M

    17-19

    The Good the Bad and the Mechanical- 39( 4-day)/82M

    Two Lonely Zookeepers- 28 (4-day)/59M

    24-26

    Timmy's Winter Vacation- 12/53M

    31-2

    Taylor Swift 1989 concert film- 13/29M

    Ophodophobia- 11/25M

    February

    7-9

    Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Part 2

    19/78M

    14-17

    Moses (4 day) 83/185M

    That was a Long Time Ago (4 day) 26/49M

    21-23

    The Disappointment- 23/54M

    28-1

    The Executioner-

    11/31M

    March

    6-8

    Black Friday- 9/35M

    Jurassic Knights- 63/189M

    13-15

    Second to Singapore- 32/108

    Rhino Riders- 14/38M (slaughtered by Jurassic Knights)

    20-22

    On A Mountain- 26/68M

    27-29

    ESP- 62/203M

    April

    6-8

    Russian Roulette- 31/92M

    13-15

    Crusader- 32/87M

    Scrooge McDuck: Imax Experience- 14/46M

    20-22

    Daisy Lemonade- 8/25M

    Ciaphas Cain- 47/130M

    27-29

    MST3K: Expedecade- 8/26M

    Kensington- 17/54M

    Edited by Ethan Hunt
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    Jan.

    Heads or Tails- 14.8/38.7

    The Cube- 4/11

    The Call of the Revenant- 28.3/60

    The Good, the Bad, and the Mechanical- 35.5/42.4/102.7

    Two Lonely Zookeepers- 18.6/22.2/65

    Timmy's Winter Vacation- 11.8/ 43.6

    1989- 15.6/26.6

    Ophidophobia- 41.5/127.2 :P

    Real Gross: 14.5/32.7

    I thought it was so hilariously bad that it deserves to succeed at the box office XD

    Feb.

    Phoenix Wright Part 2- 20.2/79.3

    Moses- 21.5/25.8/70.6

    That Was a Long Time Ago- 14.1/18.7/ 39.4

    The Disappointment- 5.7/12.6

    The Executioner- 17.5/45.7

    Mar.

    Jurassic Knights- 52.8/134.2

    Black Friday- 12/31.5

    Rhino Riders- 30.5/93.3

    Second to Singapore- 18.2/ 56.9

    On a Mountain- 18.4/42.5

    E.S.P.- 79.9/251.1

    Apr.

    Russian Roulette- 21.8/65.9

    Crusader- 68.2/199.9

    Scrooge McDuck IMAX Special Edition- 15.3/55

    Ciaphas Cain- 24.4/73

    Daisy Lemonade- 7/23.9

    MST3K: Expedecade- 10.2/30.7

    Kensington- 20.3/48.3

    Edited by Imperator Rorschach
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    I thought it was so hlariously bad that it deserves to succeed at the box office XD

    That was the intention (it's from the director of Eight Legged Freaks after all) so I'm glad to hear I suceeded on that front

    :P

    Edited by C00k13
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    January

    Heads or Tails 17/44

    The Cube- 4.5/13

    The Call of the Reverent- 21/48

    The Good The Bad and the Mechanical- 34/40.5/96

    Two Lonely Zookeepers- 21/26/66

    Timmy's Winter Vacation- 9/45

    1989- 14/28

    Ophidophobia- 17/37

    February

    Phoenix Wright- 16/61

    Moses 48/55/125

    That Was a Long Time Ago- 20/23/47

    The Disappointment- 29/67

    The Executioner- 15/43

    March

    Black Friday-11/40

    Jurassic Knights- 58/163

    Rhino Riders- 24/62

    Second to Singapore- 25/65

    On a Mountain- 29/71

    E.S.P- 74/241

    April

    Russian Roulette- 28/81

    Crusader- 63/174

    Scrooge McDuck-Imax- 13/46

    Ciaphad Cain- 27/76

    Daisy Lemonade- 10/31

    MST3K: Escapade- 9.5/29

    Kensington- 19/55

    Edited by lamamama
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    Tbh I think these 1989 predictions are far too low. She has the biggest fanbase and her popularity are simillar with Bieber and Montana at the time of their concert movies and think 1989 could do at least 30M-35M on opening weekend

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    Tbh I think these 1989 predictions are far too low. She has the biggest fanbase and her popularity are simillar with Bieber and Montana at the time of their concert movies and think 1989 could do at least 30M-35M on opening weekend

    . There could have been potential for a bigger number if this was the first Taylor Swift film but since you have done several of them it has kinda diluted its potential
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    Tbh I think these 1989 predictions are far too low. She has the biggest fanbase and her popularity are simillar with Bieber and Montana at the time of their concert movies and think 1989 could do at least 30M-35M on opening weekend

    The One Direction movie made $17 million OW. I don't see why 1989 wouldn't open around the same range.

    Also, a 30-35 million opening? That's is pushing it a little too much.

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    Still in the middle of writing up my predicts, but yeah, I'm with everyone else on this one. Expecting 1989 to reach $30+ OW is seriously pushing it. I think it'd be lucky to reach $20m OW.

     

    There is one January movie though, that I seriously think everyone is lowballing. And that's Timmy's Winter Vacation. Seriously, it and E.S.P are the only kid-friendly family movies released this trimester (except possibly Rhino Riders, but that's going to be crushed between Jurassic Knights and E.S.P). And E.S.P is in March. TWV's basically got the entire kid audience to itself for January/February and has decent enough reviews to support it. It's going to break out big time.

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    Heads or Tails - $18.78m

    The Cube - $5.56m

    The Call of the Revenant - $20.06m

    The Good, the Bad and the Mechanical - $41.72m / $50.02m

    Two Lonely Zookeepers - $16.87m / $20.21m

    Timmy's Winter Vacation - $20.32m

    1989 - $17.43m

    Ophidiophobia - $17.82m

    Pheonix Wright: Ace Attorney Part 2 - $25.47m

    Moses - $27.64m / $32.06m

    That Was a Long Time Ago - $20.42m /$23.02m

    The Dissapointment - $14.62m

    The Executioner - $19.08m

    Edited by C00k13
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    Black Friday - $12.09m

    Jurassic Knights - $42.61m

    Rhino Riders - $20.64m

    Second To Singapore - $27.24m

    On a Mountain - $25.66m

    E.S.P - $75.17m

    Edited by C00k13
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    Okay, figured it's probably time I start posting my predictions. I've done my usual analysis, hence why they've taken so long. Nearly done with February, so that might get posted later today.

     

    January 3-5

     

    Can’t say I expect much of a breakout for either of these movies. I suspect Heads or Tails will perform well enough for a basic action/heist movie. Not sure about the Cube though. I really struggle to see people, even documentary fanatics, being interested enough in Rubik Cubes to watch a near 90 minute film about them.

     

    Heads or Tails- $19.3m/$60.2m

    The Cube- $2.1m/$5.4m

     

     

    January 10-12

     

    Can’t say I see much of a breakout for this one either. It might garner a good OW, but it’s going to drop like a rock 2nd weekend, thanks to poor reviews, typical horror-frontloadedness and the large competition from TGTBATM.

     

    Call of the Revenant- $20.3m/$44.2m

     

     

    January 17-19

     

    Interested to see how TGTBATM performs. The first film received solid reviews and performed well despite a worse spot and harsher competition, so an increase seems fairly likely. Just how big an increase is currently up in the air, but things look bright. I’m also interested to see how the legs hold up. The first film was fairly frontloaded thanks both to its heavy horror roots and the strong competition. It’ll be interesting to see if this film follows suit or whether the shift closer to Sci-fi/action will help it more. The reviews have been stronger as well.

     

    Two Lonely Zookeepers is unlikely to feel much in the way of competition from TGTBATM, being a straight low-key drama. However, the fairly dismal reviews aren’t going to do it any favours. I could see it garnering a slightly higher OW than usual thanks to Cruise’s presence, but it’s going to struggle to garner any real legs.

     

    TGTBATM- $36.8m/$45.3m (4-day)/$114.6m

    Two Lonely Zookeepers- $16.8m/$20.2m/$51.8m

     

     

    January 24-26

     

    Genuinely surprised people have been lowballing this one so much. To repeat what I’ve already said, there are only two real major family movies this trimester. This and E.S.P. And E.S.P’s not until March. Aside from maybe some competition from Moses (although that’s still a PG-13) and some holdover from last year’s Beauty and the Beast, this basically has the entire family demographic to itself for Jan/Feb (Heck, aside from 1989 (which has limited appeal, it’s the only film in January/February rated lower than PG-13)). Certainly the first film didn’t do great, but this stands alone from it enough that it’s unlikely to matter and has fairly decent reviews as well. Perhaps I’m highballing it a bit much, I’m expecting this to be a big breakout player.  

     

    Timmy’s Summer Vacation- $30.3m/$112.9m

     

     

    January 31- February 2

     

    Both of these should do reasonably enough, but not outstanding considering their limited appeal. Ophidophobia may suffer if TGTBATM has good legs though.

     

    Ophidophobia- $16.8m/$43.2m

    1989- $13.4m/$22.3m

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    February 7-9

     

    The first Phoenix Wright movie had the unfortunate luck to be subject to Blank’s numberfuckery trapped in the midst of 4 $50m+ openers, so it didn’t get a great opening. However, it did come out with an A+ cinema score and a very strong multiplier. So it’s not unreasonable to expect Part 2 to have a pretty strong increase, especially with much weaker competition and reviews currently on the same level as the first film.

     

    Phoenix Wright Part 2- $22.3m/$80.6m

     

     

    February 14-17

     

    Moses I expect to have a pretty strong OW performance. It’s the first big budget blockbuster of the year and the only one until Jurassic Knights turns up. However, the fairly dismal reviews it’s received so far could cut into its legs. But I doubt it’ll do as bad as Exodus: Gods and Kings though.

     

    That was a Long Time Ago may also do fairly well for itself, at least on opening night. Reviews also haven’t been strong, but it doesn’t clash too strongly with Moses and the Valentines Day release is going to give it a strong boost. It is going to be very frontloaded on that first day though.

     

    Moses- $53.4m/$60.3m/$152.6m

    That was a Long Time ago- $20.2/$23.9/$68.1m

     

     

    February 21-23

     

    The Disappointment is going to do exactly what it says on the tin. Worst reviews of the Tri (so far) + Coming after a big holiday weekend = Bomb.

     

    The Disappointment- $6.6m/$15.7m

     

     

    February 28-March 1

     

    An Executioner break out seems unlikely. Certainly the action crowd is a little starved since TGTBATM, but Statham’s an unreliable draw and it’s hard to tell just how much it will be overshadowed by Jurassic Knights the next week. For now, I’ll guess a modest start.

     

    The Executioner- $16.3m/$49.2m

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    Hey Numbers, any clue when the actuals are going to start coming in? I thought you were going to start working on them this weekend. Or are you just waiting for people to finish up reviews/predicts? Speaking of, here are my March predicts.

     

    March 6-8

     

    So, Jurassic Knights is likely to do well. Interesting concept, dinosaurs, first action-heavy blockbuster of the year, dinosaurs, little-to-no-competition and dinosaurs. At the moment, the only real thing that may cause a stumble are the currently lukewarm reviews (and I suspect Numbers’s may push it into Rotten). Then again, with a film like this, it’s difficult to tell exactly how much the reviews are going to affect it. It’s action and dinosaur heavy enough that I could see WOM among the GA being good regardless of lukewarm critical opinion. Ah well, only time (and Numbers) will tell whether Jurassic Knights 2: Cretaceous Crusade will be a thing. (And yes, I have an entire list of puns for sequels. Prehistoric Paladins, Sauropod Skirmish… On second thoughts, maybe it’s better if this flops.)

     

    On the lesser side of things Black Friday may perform reasonably for a cheap horror movie, since we’re a bit lacking on horrors, but its format means you shouldn’t be expecting any massive numbers.

     

    Jurassic Knights- $61.5m/$163.2m

    Black Friday- $10.2m/$28.6m

     

     

    March 13-15

     

    Rhino Riders is getting crushed. Coming a week after Jurassic Knights, a film with a similar premise but with dinosaurs (and dinosaurs > rhinos), more action and much better/higher effects and budget. Even any under-13 audience it might hope to steal from JK is going to be taken by E.S.P a couple weeks later. Rhino Riders might actually struggle to even take No 1 this weekend from Second to Singapore or Jurassic Knights’s 2nd weekend.

     

    Second to Singapore, on the other hand, is unlikely to have trouble against JK, being a stoner comedy aimed at a different market. And with the decent reviews so far (for a comedy) it might do fairly well for itself, especially with the lack of many big comedies so far. So, I’m going to hedge my bets and guess it beats Rhino Riders

     

    Second to Singapore- $25.7m/$83.2m

    Rhino Riders- $20.3m/$53.4m

     

     

    March 20-22

     

    Not entirely sure where the $25m+ predicts for On a Mountain are coming from. Even with above average reviews, if Jurassic Knights holds, it’ll take a beating. It’ll probably top the Executioner, but that’s it.

     

    On a Mountain- $19.3m/$52.3m

     

     

    March 27-29

     

    I think we’re all in agreement that the sky’s pretty much the limit for E.S.P. Zero animation competition all Tri, very little family competition period and excellent reviews (so far). Not to mention coming from the same studio (albeit not production company) behind the recent first animated Best Picture of CAYOM 2.0. That’ll give it a boost. Barring a surprise breakout somewhere, it seems fairly logical to assume that this will be the highest grossing film of the trimester.

     

    E.S.P- $82.5m/$272.4m

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