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Wrath

BOT User Tracking 1/1-3 Hateful Eight (wide)

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That's about as good as a second weekend gets, and I'm astounded at that Daddy's Home number so its a good time for a cooldown which this weekend is thoughtfully providing. Just one movie this weekend. That having been said, its a wide expansion rather than a new release, its a Thursday release, and its Hateful Eight. So at the very least its about as interesting as a single-movie weekend can be. I've waffled a bit in the past on this, but even though its a Thursday release/expansion on a major holiday we're going to stick with 3-day FFS predicts.

 

Please provide your 1/1 - 3 Opening Weekend predicts for:

 

Hateful Eight (BOM says 1,800) *3-day*

 

 

Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

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Also, WaterBottle gave me some advice on overcoming my technology incompetence, and I've set up a dropbox with the data I've collected thus far. That way if I get hit by a bus the data won't disappear with me.  Link is here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/dc5zjt68cqgk6x6/Movie%20Data%21.xlsx?dl=0 in case anyone is interested.

 

Rest assured, that's not the master copy. I'd prefer people not to screw with it, but if they do it won't be a problem for more than a few days. I'll try to update this at least semi-regularly.

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I'm behind on a bunch of stuff because of the holiday, but I'll get to last week's results when I can. We didn't do terribly well, but Daddy's Home was a sight to see. This week's a wee bit quicker to get through. Unfortunately, most other predictors seem to have taken the week off what with the holiday and all.

 

As usual, I went through the various predicts (10 for Hateful Eight, one of our quieter weekends in a while. Just one movie, and after a pair of interesting weekends so not surprising) and here's what we ended up with:

 

Hateful Eight

Mean: 27.4M

Median: 25.8M

StnDev: 4.78M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 17.47%

High: 36M

Low: 22.4M

 

BO.com 25M

Deadline 

ScreenRant.com  

Variety 

Entertainment Weekly

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Hateful Eight

Prediction: 27.4M +/- 4.78M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 15.7M (off by 11.7M, so 2.44 stndev)

Yikes, that was terrible. Only BO.com predicted Hateful Eight as well, and they did better, though they predicted 25M, so its not like they get a gold star either. This was one of those tragic weeks where the lowest prediction is the closest without actually being very close. That honor goes to Jayhawk who guessed 22.4M.

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1 hour ago, Wrath said:

Hateful Eight

Prediction: 27.4M +/- 4.78M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 15.7M (off by 11.7M, so 2.44 stndev)

Yikes, that was terrible. Only BO.com predicted Hateful Eight as well, and they did better, though they predicted 25M, so its not like they get a gold star either. This was one of those tragic weeks where the lowest prediction is the closest without actually being very close. That honor goes to Jayhawk who guessed 22.4M.

I'll take my bow.

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