HenryMeyers20 Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Barnack said: That is very misleading (For example you use a very high foreign P&A but no foreign revenue) only the first weekend BO, not take into account how much box office influence what you get from international TV. A 18m opening weekend on a 29m budget movie would not have been bad at all. That is quite similar to Hitman Bodyguard... I understand what you are saying. My numbers aren't completely accurate, I was just trying to make a point. I've should made that more clear. Your are right, I forgot about the foreign revenue. Let put that at $20m b/o while probably too high with a 55% theater take. That still be would $83.7 million in the red. I know this just the first weekend, very few movies make profit ow. But my point is, even with a low box office, LL is in better shape than most movies. Edited August 20, 2017 by HenryMeyers20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 A key point about pre-selling foreign distribution is that it provides capital to actually make the movie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryMeyers20 Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 My example is why major studios don't make mid level budget films anymore, it's not financially feasible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryMeyers20 Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Interesting quotes from Steven Soderbergh and EP Dan Fellman about LL opening. “This weekend’s number is not a problem; we were in profit as soon as someone bought a ticket,” Mr. Soderbergh said, noting that 46 percent of total domestic ticket sales “will go into a pool shared by the cast and crew.” He added, “The entire experience has been a blast, which was also one of my goals.” Dan Fellman, a “Logan Lucky” producer and film distribution consultant, said by phone that turnout was strong on the coasts. “Where we didn’t connect was in the South and Midwest, which is frustrating because the movie was made for that audience,” he said. This is why big studios ignore the rural areas. Soderbergh also said he will do things different on his next movie. I think this is a learning experience for Soderbergh, sound like that $8 million mostly came from NY and LA, which is surprising. Here is the link to the article: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/20/movies/hitmans-bodyguard-logan-lucky-box-office.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowhite Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 (edited) I'm rooting for Soderbergh, But, in order to do what he did...you need to be...a previous success. This isn't an indie model for everyone. And it's not an indie model for even knowns, next time at bat. Luc Besson knows. Tough business. And this was a quality movie. Edited August 20, 2017 by kowhite 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 (edited) 6 hours ago, HenryMeyers20 said: My example is why major studios don't make mid level budget films anymore, it's not financially feasible. Depend what you mean by mid budget level (considering this is a 29m budget movie) I imagine you mean movie with a 20 to 60m type of budget. last 3 year's according to the-numbers there is 175 of the them (many of not from major studios and we would need to clean it but), with a success rate above 50%, list: Spoiler Sully $60,000,000 London Has Fallen $60,000,000 Jack Reacher: Never Go Back $60,000,000 Baywatch $60,000,000 Joy $60,000,000 Smurfs: The Lost Village $60,000,000 The Dark Tower $60,000,000 Rock Dog $60,000,000 Mortdecai $60,000,000 Xi You Ji zhi Sun Wu Kong San Da Bai Gu Jing $60,000,000 The Ridiculous 6 $60,000,000 Deadpool $58,000,000 Goosebumps $58,000,000 Life $58,000,000 Zhuo yao ji $56,000,000 Fifty Shades Darker $55,000,000 Paddington $55,000,000 Kubo and the Two Strings $55,000,000 Crimson Peak $55,000,000 Black Mass $53,000,000 Daddy’s Home $50,000,000 Central Intelligence $50,000,000 The Emoji Movie $50,000,000 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi $50,000,000 War Dogs $50,000,000 The Nice Guys $50,000,000 Zoolander 2 $50,000,000 Run All Night $50,000,000 Snowden $50,000,000 Free State of Jones $50,000,000 Child 44 $50,000,000 Shanghai $50,000,000 Chappie $49,000,000 Taken 3 $48,000,000 The Infiltrator $47,500,000 Arrival $47,000,000 Silence $46,500,000 The Girl on the Train $45,000,000 Office Christmas Party $45,000,000 All Eyez on Me $45,000,000 A Monster Calls $43,000,000 Snatched $42,000,000 Pourquoi j'ai pas mangé mon père $42,000,000 Fifty Shades of Grey $40,000,000 The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist $40,000,000 John Wick: Chapter Two $40,000,000 Ride Along 2 $40,000,000 Get Hard $40,000,000 The Accountant $40,000,000 The Intern $40,000,000 Bridge of Spies $40,000,000 Hacksaw Ridge $40,000,000 Patriots Day $40,000,000 Resident Evil: The Final Chapter $40,000,000 The House $40,000,000 The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature $40,000,000 The Gunman $40,000,000 Baahubali: The Beginning $40,000,000 Victor Frankenstein $40,000,000 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk $40,000,000 USS Indianapolis: Men of Courage $40,000,000 The Crow $40,000,000 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie $38,000,000 Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 $38,000,000 Why Him? $38,000,000 The 5th Wave $38,000,000 Creed $37,000,000 How to be Single $37,000,000 Aloha $37,000,000 Collateral Beauty $36,000,000 Yip Man 3 $36,000,000 Queen of the Desert $36,000,000 Trainwreck $35,000,000 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising $35,000,000 Poltergeist $35,000,000 Hot Pursuit $35,000,000 Concussion $35,000,000 Bridget Jones’s Baby $35,000,000 Whiskey Tango Foxtrot $35,000,000 Hitman: Agent 47 $35,000,000 Unfinished Business $35,000,000 The Walk $35,000,000 The Brothers Grimsby $35,000,000 The Lovers $35,000,000 Baby Driver $34,000,000 The Longest Ride $34,000,000 Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates $33,000,000 The Young and Prodigious T.S. Spivet $33,000,000 Freaks of Nature $33,000,000 Criminal $31,500,000 Vacation $31,000,000 Sisters $30,000,000 Southpaw $30,000,000 Atomic Blonde $30,000,000 Sicario $30,000,000 The Age of Adaline $30,000,000 Entourage $30,000,000 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $30,000,000 Baahubali 2: The Conclusion $30,000,000 Steve Jobs $30,000,000 Wild Card $30,000,000 United Passions $30,000,000 Ballerina $30,000,000 Grace of Monaco $30,000,000 Savva. Serdtse voyna $30,000,000 Bilal $30,000,000 Collide $29,200,000 Pitch Perfect 2 $29,000,000 The Boss $29,000,000 Florence Foster Jenkins $29,000,000 Logan Lucky $29,000,000 Straight Outta Compton $28,000,000 Girls Trip $28,000,000 The Big Short $28,000,000 American Ultra $28,000,000 Pride and Prejudice and Zombies $28,000,000 Our Brand is Crisis $28,000,000 Money Monster $27,000,000 Rules Don’t Apply $26,700,000 Self/Less $26,000,000 Viy $26,000,000 Accidental Love $26,000,000 The Face of an Angel $26,000,000 Hidden Figures $25,000,000 A Dog’s Purpose $25,000,000 The Night Before $25,000,000 Fist Fight $25,000,000 Rings $25,000,000 Shaun the Sheep $25,000,000 CHiPS $25,000,000 The 33 $25,000,000 Legend $25,000,000 Jane Got a Gun $25,000,000 Yi ge ren de wu lin $25,000,000 Red Sky $25,000,000 Tulip Fever $25,000,000 Reagan $25,000,000 Going in Style $24,000,000 The Wedding Ringer $23,000,000 Eddie the Eagle $23,000,000 Chai dàn zhuanjia $23,000,000 Nocturnal Animals $22,500,000 The Water Diviner $22,500,000 Hail, Caesar! $22,000,000 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $22,000,000 The Transporter Refueled $22,000,000 The Butterfly God $22,000,000 Bitter Harvest $21,000,000 La La Land $20,000,000 Bad Moms $20,000,000 Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween $20,000,000 Me Before You $20,000,000 Barbershop: The Next Cut $20,000,000 Selma $20,000,000 Spotlight $20,000,000 Max $20,000,000 Nerve $20,000,000 Risen $20,000,000 Rough Night $20,000,000 Secret in Their Eyes $20,000,000 Burnt $20,000,000 Triple 9 $20,000,000 The Light Between Oceans $20,000,000 Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping $20,000,000 Ratchet and Clank $20,000,000 Little Boy $20,000,000 Hands of Stone $20,000,000 My All-American $20,000,000 Jìyì dàshi $20,000,000 By the Sea $20,000,000 Regression $20,000,000 Survivor $20,000,000 The History of Love $20,000,000 Fight Valley $20,000,000 The Thousand Miles $20,000,000 But logan lucky (or THB) are more low budget movie than mid-range, the fact that we would call a movie below 30m mid range instead of low budget show just how the mid range became rare, the mid budget 80m to 120m non franchise movie almost went away. If we look at the prime Russel Crowe filmography: A beautiful Mind: 58m (80m in 2017 dollar) Master and commander: 150m (200m today) Cinderella Man: 88m (110m today) The insider: 90m (132m today) American Gangster: 100m (118m today) 3:10 to Yuma: 55m (65m today) Body of Lies: 70m (80m today) Except for Master and commander that was more in the blockbuster range, the other movie were what people thought of mid range / non tentpole big adult drama production. Those are getting rarer and rarer, the 20-30m movie is still common (arguably too common and that is the problem, not enough of those 60-120m movie like in the past). Looking at that list how many of those movie would get greenlight in 2017 under the adjusted price for inflation ? If Nolan or DiCaprio don't get involved. Maybe 0. Edited August 21, 2017 by Barnack 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryMeyers20 Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 (edited) My definition of mid level is $80 million and lower. Major studios mainly produce big blockbusters and only distribute lower budget movies. Even Hitman's Bodyguard is an independent movie, Lionsgate is only distributing it in some markets. You said success rate is over 50%, well maybe not. In a speech Soderbergh made in San Francisco a few year ago he give an example why big studio don't make low and mid level movies. He said: Movie AA budget is $10m It cost $30m to open domestically It cost another $30m to open in foreign markets A studio is not going to spent $60m to open a $10m movie The movie now has to gross $140m just to break even, because the theater get 50% of ticket sales. Now how many $10m movies gross $140m, not many. What Soderbergh did with LL was to cut out the middle man by selling foreign distribution rights, instead of making distribution deals, he sold first streaming and self distribute the film domestically. This is why today he can brag that LL is profitable even with a dismal box office performance. Edited August 21, 2017 by HenryMeyers20 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 That was part of Kevin Smith speech at Sundance when he distributed himself to exhibitionner the movie Red state: He did use a bit more realistic number, you do not need to gross $140m from a $10m movie. They usually do not get a 60m world P&A the 10m movie and often 60%+ of the revenue are post theatrical for them. Take a movie like Evil Death 2013 Direct production Budget: 17.25 million Domestic P&A: 30.52m International P&A: 10.55 m Total revenue: domestic Theatrical: 26.64m intl theatrical: 13.7m World Home ent: 29m World TV: 37.31m Airlines: 5k Total revenue: 106.765 million Profit: 20.9 m to the studio, 13.45m in participation bonus or the movie Easy A Domestic: $58,401,464 77.9% + Foreign: $16,550,841 22.1% = Worldwide: $74,952,305 Domestic P&A: 35.66 m intl P&A: 9.982m Production budget: 11.128m Total revenue: 137m Profit: 42.12m to the studio, 14.8 in participation bonus Both didn't come close to 140m WW, and were really profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryMeyers20 Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Barnack said: Both didn't come close to 140m WW, and were really profitable. It depends on the movie, Soderbergh only works with big name stars. So the foreign distributors will throw on money into marketing. When Easy A came out Emma Stone was not consider a star. I don't understand your math, how is "Easy A" total revenue is $137m when it only gross $75m? Also Soderbergh was only speaking about the theatricial window, not tv . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, HenryMeyers20 said: I don't understand your math, how is "Easy A" total revenue is $137m when it only gross $75m? There is not math involved, purely using sony leaked accounting of Easy A. Doing 150% of the box office in revenue was around the norm back then, for a loved comedy that was very domestic heavy doing much more than that was not unusual. Easy A revenue were (in thousand) DOMESTIC THEATRICAL REVENUE 28,133 INTL THEATRICAL REVENUE 6,425 DOMESTIC HOME ENT REVENUE 40,275 DOMESTIC HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 8,898 INTL HOME ENT REVENUE 9,992 INTL HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 1,387 DOMESTIC PAY TV REVENUE 11,560 DOMESTIC FREE TV REVENUE 7,328 INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION REVENUE 22,500 AIRLINES AND MUSIC 989 NON-THEATRICAL & OTHER 223 Total: 137.712 million, 34.5m from theatre vs over 100 million after, that was the good time still in the end of the dvd bubble. Has you see box office give some clue about a movie story, but far from all of it, specially for release between 2004 and 2010 or so, almost all the money was in dvds and international tv, theatrical was mostly a publicity (run at a deficit yearly cost of releasing movies being higher for studios than ticket rental) for those 2 big real source of money for the studios. They are correlated with theatrical (R2 of around 0.8) but far from perfect. Quote Also Soderbergh was only speaking about the theatricial window, not tv . Why would anyone talk about the theatrical window in particular ? Specially someone that know how important the other are (and pre-sold some of them in this case). Almost no movie made in the last 25 year's make sense financially from a theatrical window alone point of view, and it has nothing special vs the others. Edited August 21, 2017 by Barnack 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryMeyers20 Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 8 hours ago, Barnack said: Why would anyone talk about the theatrical window in particular ? Specially someone that know how important the other are (and pre-sold some of them in this case). Almost no movie made in the last 25 year's make sense financially from a theatrical window alone point of view, and it has nothing special vs the others. I don't know why Soderbergh only talk about the theatrical window, maybe he just old fashion. But I see your point, only 25% of most movies revenue come from the theatrical window. I think Soderbergh believe a movie should be profitable in that window. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingp0va Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 (edited) glad this shit flopped after it kept messing up imdb for me Edited August 21, 2017 by Kingp0va Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, Kingp0va said: glad this shit flopped after it kept messing up imdb for me lmao this is the pettiest reason to cheer for something to flop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryMeyers20 Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Soderbergh in The NY Times Sunday is quoted as saying the weekend is not problem, LL made profit soon as the first ticket were sold. The problem was the South and Midwest did not support it, the very people it was made for. What I find weird was the top 10 theaters with the biggest audience for LL was in LA and NY. 7 in LA the other 3 in NY. Soderbergh made a mistake by not marketing it in the big cities. Thats were the real audience was for this movie. He also should have open it in limited release. The big cities came out for the cast, but rural folk don't care about cast. Soderbergh miscalculated people in the South and Midwest, he thought they would like it, but they were probably insulted by it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingp0va Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 2 hours ago, That Floating Guy said: lmao this is the pettiest reason to cheer for something to flop better than nothing lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, Kingp0va said: better than nothing lol You act as if that it's a requirement to cheer for everything to flop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryMeyers20 Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Technically, it's not a flop because it's already on the profit side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingp0va Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 1 hour ago, That Floating Guy said: You act as if that it's a requirement to cheer for everything to flop i was not being really serious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Just now, Kingp0va said: i was not being really serious I'm sure you weren't 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 22 hours ago, HenryMeyers20 said: My definition of mid level is $80 million and lower. Major studios mainly produce big blockbusters and only distribute lower budget movies. Even Hitman's Bodyguard is an independent movie, Lionsgate is only distributing it in some markets. You said success rate is over 50%, well maybe not. In a speech Soderbergh made in San Francisco a few year ago he give an example why big studio don't make low and mid level movies. He said: Movie AA budget is $10m It cost $30m to open domestically It cost another $30m to open in foreign markets A studio is not going to spent $60m to open a $10m movie The movie now has to gross $140m just to break even, because the theater get 50% of ticket sales. Now how many $10m movies gross $140m, not many. What Soderbergh did with LL was to cut out the middle man by selling foreign distribution rights, instead of making distribution deals, he sold first streaming and self distribute the film domestically. This is why today he can brag that LL is profitable even with a dismal box office performance. But theatres don't keep 50% of ticket sales. Actually, for the first 2 weeks of a movie's release, the take-away for theatres is very low. It's only when a movie is in its later weeks that less money goes back to studios. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...