Best Animated Feature - 2016: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo, Zucchini, Red Turtle

[eXtacy]

Funimation has announced it will give Your Name an Oscar qualifying run

 

http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2016-10-26/funimation-to-release-shinkai-your-name-film-theatrically-before-end-of-2016/.108141

[BadAtGender]

3 hours ago, eXtacy said:

Funimation has announced it will give Your Name an Oscar qualifying run

 

http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2016-10-26/funimation-to-release-shinkai-your-name-film-theatrically-before-end-of-2016/.108141

 

Well, so much for its nomination chances, then.

[Mojoguy]

Stop acting like Your Name had any real chance of winning an Oscar. Nearly everyone outside of Japan haven't even heard of it or care about it.
Disney has zero involvement so it never had any real chance.

Edited November 3, 2016 by Mojoguy

[Jason]

On 11/3/2016 at 6:41 PM, Mojoguy said:

Stop acting like Your Name had any real chance of winning an Oscar. Nearly everyone outside of Japan haven't even heard of it or care about it.
Disney has zero involvement so it never had any real chance.

 

I don't think anyone has suggested that Your Name had a chance of winning an Oscar, just that it had a better chance of being nominated next year rather than this year?

 

Anyway, I think it's too early to be sure that it doesn't have a chance of a nomination this year. There are only six reviews so far on RT, four of which provide a score. That being said, applying the usual statistical assumptions (random sampling, normal distribution) from those four reviews results in a 80% 90% chance of having an average final rating above 7.6.

 

Of the 30 films with at least that rating or higher that have been submitted to the Academy since 2004, only four have missed a nomination (Waltz with Bashir, Ponyo, The Rabbi's Cat, The Lego Movie), and never more than one in any given year. However, this year will have at least two films with an average rating of 7.6 or higher miss the nomination (presuming Moana is nominated), and will probably end up with a total of three such films missing the nomination. (Since Your Name will probably have a rating of 7.6 or higher.)

 

So this year is definitely more competitive than most years, and the lower end of Your Name's predicted final rating suggests a film that would be nominated in most years but probably not this year. However, if Your Name ends up doing as well or better in its remaining reviews as it has so far (final rating of 8.5 or higher), then it will almost certainly be nominated this year as well.

 

If it does end up getting nominated this year, then I don't think there would have been any advantage to waiting another year.

Edited November 5, 2016 by Jason
oops, math error!

[cannastop]

Early buzz on Moana is that it's not as great as Zootopia, going by the tweets posted on this thread:

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/10372-moana-112316-teaser-trailer-on-page-33/?do=findComment&comment=2726594

 

 

Zootopia is now the obvious frontrunner. Shame that I haven't seen Kubo, so I don't quite know how the competition stacks up. It's been quiet from Sony about The Red Turtle as well.

[WrathOfHan]

1. Zootopia

2. Red Turtle

3. Kubo

4. Dory

5. April

 

 

[Jason]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Zootopia is now the obvious frontrunner. Shame that I haven't seen Kubo, so I don't quite know how the competition stacks up. It's been quiet from Sony about The Red Turtle as well.

 

I don't think either Kubo or The Red Turtle will have a chance against Zootopia for the win. Their overall reception hasn't been clearly better (about the same from a statistical standpoint), and Zootopia will have the advantage amongst the Academy-at-large of having greater popularity.

[SchumacherFTW]

7 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Stop acting like Your Name had any real chance of winning an Oscar. Nearly everyone outside of Japan haven't even heard of it or care about it.
Disney has zero involvement so it never had any real chance.

What's wrong with championing an animated film we feel is of real quality? I know it has no chance of winning, but do I feel it's worthy of being nominated? Of course! It's a film that deserves recognition in the western world as its probably the best anime film I've personally seen. 

[eXtacy]

83 on Metacritic, 4 reviews

100% RT at 8.5, 6 reviews

8.9 on IMDB with 4000 ratings

9.39 on MAL, ranked #1 of all anime, with 54000 ratings

Schumacher the only one who seen it in theater said it was by far the best animated film of year

Its heading to a top 5 all time finish in Japans box office.

 

11 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Stop acting like Your Name had any real chance of winning an Oscar. Nearly everyone outside of Japan haven't even heard of it or care about it.
Disney has zero involvement so it never had any real chance.

 

This month it gets released in a lot of countries so stop acting like this has zero chance.

[yjs]

1 hour ago, eXtacy said:

Schumacher the only one who seen it in theater said it was by far the best animated film of year

Its heading to a top 5 all time finish in Japans box office

well these aren't real valid tho, are they..

1 hour ago, eXtacy said:

This month it gets released in a lot of countries so stop acting like this has zero chance.

and it might get nominated but when it comes to winning it really does stand a zero chance.

But I agree, there's nothing wrong in pushing certain films that you loved hoping they get that well-deserved recognitions. 

[SchumacherFTW]

I'll admit I'm biased towards anime, but given how no movie has stuck with me like this since Intouchables a few years back means something to me. Will it likely get snubbed just like Intouchables a few years back? Probably. Will I stop cheering for it? Hell no. And I still feel that it has a better chance of nomination than The Red Turtle. Given a qualifying run is happening soon, I can't see it not generating any buzz within the animation community in the academy unless they've suddenly dropped dead. 

[yjs]

17 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I'll admit I'm biased towards anime, but given how no movie has stuck with me like this since Intouchables a few years back means something to me. Will it likely get snubbed just like Intouchables a few years back? Probably. Will I stop cheering for it? Hell no. And I still feel that it has a better chance of nomination than The Red Turtle. Given a qualifying run is happening soon, I can't see it not generating any buzz within the animation community in the academy unless they've suddenly dropped dead. 

I think opening late definitely helps cause it'll be fresher in voters' memory. the "anime slot" will be fought over by the Red Turtle, Miss Hokusai and this. 

[eXtacy]

42 minutes ago, yjs said:

I think opening late definitely helps cause it'll be fresher in voters' memory. the "anime slot" will be fought over by the Red Turtle, Miss Hokusai and this. 

 

Its funny Miss Hokusai is not even well liked in the anime community. Only a 7.29 on MAL

[cannastop]

27 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

 

Its funny Miss Hokusai is not even well liked in the anime community. Only a 7.29 on MAL

Loved by the rotten tomatoes crowd, though:

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/miss_hokusai/

[SchumacherFTW]

11 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Loved by the rotten tomatoes crowd, though:

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/miss_hokusai/

From 41 critics after its theatrical release in the states? Hmm. 

[cannastop]

23 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

From 41 critics after its theatrical release in the states? Hmm. 

Don't see your point. It's a niche title.

[SchumacherFTW]

22 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Don't see your point. It's a niche title.

Precisely. 41 critics for a niche title, not exactly a big sample size 

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Precisely. 41 critics for a niche title, not exactly a big sample size 

Your Name is probably going to get the same amount of reviews.

Edited November 4, 2016 by cannastop

[Jason]

On 11/4/2016 at 4:39 PM, yjs said:

I think opening late definitely helps cause it'll be fresher in voters' memory. the "anime slot" will be fought over by the Red Turtle, Miss Hokusai and this. 

 

Hmm. I actually don't think that the Animation branch is influenced by more recent release date when nominating films, especially given that they are required to watch all of them. I compared the release date of the 48 nominees since 2004 against 115 submitted films since then that missed the nomination (and have a release date available on Box Office Mojo), and when you take into account that the June and November Disney (incl. Pixar) releases are almost always nominated, it's very hard to see any pattern in favour of films released later in the year.

 

Here's a graph showing the number of films in their respective category by release month:

 

Edited November 7, 2016 by Jason
added 6 additional films that missed nomination using release dates from BOM

[cannastop]

Zootopia is clearly Disney's favorite. The filmmakers are still talking to the press 8 months after the movie opened.

 

http://www.vulture.com/2016/11/zootopia-predict-trump.html
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/behind-screen/how-zootopia-tackled-fear-mongering-colorful-metropolis-945129