abra Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 23 hours ago, abra said: [4 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 13.35m - (+18.2%) Fri: 47.42m - (+20.6%) Sat: 21.11m - (+24.6%) [4 days+ 0 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 24.84m Fri: 40.32m Sat: 14.19m [3 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 17.15m - (+28.5%) Fri: 62.15m - (+31.1%) Sat: 28.45m - (+34.8%) [3 days+ 0 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 25.75m Fri: 44.76m Sat: 16.30m 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrstickball Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 3 days left and it is at 119m in pre-orders for the first 3 days.. Wow. Are we figuring a 3x - 3.25x OD from pre-orders? That would already suggest a 200m opening just based on where its at, 3-days prior to release. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 10, 2017 Author Share Posted April 10, 2017 28 minutes ago, abra said: [3 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 17.15m - (+28.5%) Fri: 62.15m - (+31.1%) Sat: 28.45m - (+34.8%) [3 days+ 0 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 25.75m Fri: 44.76m Sat: 16.30m [3 days+ 0 hours] JTTW2 OD: 58.1m 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 3 hours ago, Olive said: [3 days+ 0 hours] JTTW2 OD: 58.1m Crazy OD o_o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 8 hours ago, Mrstickball said: 3 days left and it is at 119m in pre-orders for the first 3 days.. Wow. Are we figuring a 3x - 3.25x OD from pre-orders? That would already suggest a 200m opening just based on where its at, 3-days prior to release. Aside from RE6 at 2.9. All movies have been at least 3x in the last 6 months with several reaching 4 like Kong and XXX. I've gone with 2.75 in the chart to play it safe in case evening sellouts prevent walk ups. Up 31% yesterday. About what Kong and BatB did, they bumped 40% Tuesday. Mid 30s would be huge. Looking for a 1.5m run rate at noon. At 95k shows now. They added 9k shows yesterday after adding just 4-5k the previous 2 days. 10k+ should be added today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abra Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 13 hours ago, abra said: [3 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 17.15m - (+28.5%) Fri: 62.15m - (+31.1%) Sat: 28.45m - (+34.8%) [3 days+ 0 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 25.75m Fri: 44.76m Sat: 16.30m [2 days+ 11 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 18.23m - Now(+6.3%) Fri: 67.81m - Now (+9.1%) Sat: 31.46m - Now (+10.6%) [2 days+ 11 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 25.80m Fri: 44.80m Sat: 16.35m 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 On 4/6/2017 at 11:57 AM, POTUS said: I set up a chart. PS heading to 25.5-26 1am tonight. JttW2 and WC were very similar. Being a local/holiday and Gamer/Holiday they were both frontloaded. FF8 is neither. Averaging 30% for 3 days after it cooled down shows that. Dropping it down to a daily average of 20% starting tomorrow, which I doubt happens as it will take at least another 6m +24% WCS(% may drop but the revenue always holds or increases) , and a similar ramp up at the end with RE6's OD multi comes to 408. Being a little more optimistic yet still plausible in the second chart and it threaten SW7 Dom OW. XR is currently $1=6.9yuan. 1711m to beat SW7. FF7s first 3 days(Sun,Mon,Tue) 753m/$121m including MN. Shows/Screens have doubled since FF7. Holdovers will likely make just 130m. 1.38B/$200m is looking good. A 9+ rating on Maoyan will be needed. CBO 3 day record, 1960m/$284m, Jan 28,29,30 2017 Chinese New Year. An SW7 beat and holdovers would still be under the record making it plausable but it would be remarkable since it's not a holiday and not 4 quadrant. They may have added 5% screens since CNY. Screen build has been at +2.5% per month for years. If it bumps 25-30% for the next 3 days this thread will blow up! JttW2 WC FF8 PS 1am MN PS % gain OD PS % gain MN PS % gain OD PS % gain MN PS % gain OD PS % gain Sa 12.7 8.8 2.5 Su 16.9 32.7% 11.0 12.0 37.1% 5.4 116.0% Mo 19.4 14.9% 13.0 14.8 23.3% 8.3 53.7% Tu 22.1 14.2% 14.9 17.0 14.9% 11.4 37.3% We 25.5 15.3% 16.0 20.0 17.6% 5.0 14.5 27.2% Th 29.1 14.1% 18.1 0.0% 23.0 15.0% 6.4 28.0% 19.5 34.5% Fr 33.3 14.4% 19.6 8.3% 27.0 17.4% 8.3 29.7% 25.5 30.8% proj Sa 38.4 15.3% 21.8 11.2% 31.5 16.7% 31.0 21.6% proj Su 44.0 14.6% 22.5 3.2% 35.9 14.0% 37.0 19.4% proj Mo 51.0 15.9% 23.4 4.0% 40.8 13.6% 44.3 19.7% proj Tu 57.0 11.8% 25.7 9.8% 44.8 9.8% 53.2 20.1% proj We 72.0 26.3% 27.1 5.4% 50.7 13.2% 66.5 25.0% proj Th 88.8 23.3% 30.0 10.7% 64.8 27.8% 88.0 32.3% proj Fr(OD) 11.9 140.0 57.7% 50.1 67.0% 96.0 48.1% 141.0 60.2% proj OD 356.0 154.3% 251.5 162.0% 408.9 190.0% proj Multi 2.54 2.62 2.9 FF8 MN PS % gain OD PS % gain 2.5 5.4 116.0% 8.3 53.7% 11.4 37.3% 5.0 14.5 27.2% 6.4 28.0% 19.5 34.5% 8.3 29.7% 25.5 30.8% 32.0 25.5% proj 40.0 25.0% proj 50.0 25.0% proj 62.5 25.0% proj 81.5 30.4% proj 110.0 35.0% proj 176.0 60.0% proj 528.0 200.0% proj 3.00 Its outperforming my higher end projection, rolling up like SH movies instead of like WC or JTTW I lowered the OD multies to the lowest levels I think they could possible be. there is no sign of deviating OPENING WEEKEND RANGE: $212-270M JttW2 WC FF8 low end PS 1am OD PS % gain MN PS % gain OD PS % gain MN PS % gain OD PS gain % gain Sa 12.7 8.8 2.5 Su 16.9 32.7% 11.0 12.0 37.1% 5.4 2.9 116.0% Mo 19.4 14.9% 13.0 14.8 23.3% 8.3 2.9 53.7% Tu 22.1 14.2% 14.9 17.0 14.9% 11.4 3.1 37.3% We 25.5 15.3% 16.0 20.0 17.6% 5.0 14.5 3.1 27.2% Th 29.1 14.1% 18.1 0.0% 23.0 15.0% 6.4 28.0% 19.5 5.0 34.5% Fr 33.3 14.4% 19.6 8.3% 27.0 17.4% 8.0 25.0% 24.6 5.1 26.2% Sa 38.4 15.3% 21.8 11.2% 31.5 16.7% 9.8 22.5% 33.0 8.4 34.1% Su 44.0 14.6% 22.5 3.2% 35.9 14.0% 11.3 15.3% 39.6 6.6 20.0% Mo 51.0 15.9% 23.4 4.0% 40.8 13.6% 13.6 20.4% 48.0 8.4 21.2% Tu 57.0 11.8% 25.7 9.8% 44.8 9.8% 17.4 27.9% 63.0 15.0 31.3% We 72.0 26.3% 27.1 5.4% 50.7 13.2% 22.0 26.4% 84.0 21.0 33.3% est Th 88.8 23.3% 30.0 10.7% 64.8 27.8% 30.0 36.4% 114.0 30.0 35.7% proj Fr(OD) 140.0 57.7% 50.1 67.0% 96.0 48.1% 60.0 100.0% 180.0 66.0 57.9% proj OD Rev 356.0 154.3% 251.5 162.0% 60.0 457.2 154.0% proj Multi 2.54 2.62 2.54 OD OW Total OD $ OW $ Total $ FF8 high end JttW2 356 777 1656 52 113 240 MN PS % gain OD PS % gain WC 251 819 1472 36 125 225 2.5 FF8 Lo 457 1463 2926 66 212 424 5.4 2.9 116.0% FF8 Hi 564 1860 3907 82 270 566 8.3 2.9 53.7% 11.4 3.1 37.3% Wed 5.0 14.5 3.1 27.2% Thu 6.4 28.0% 19.5 5.0 34.5% Fri 8.0 25.0% 24.6 5.1 26.2% Sat 9.8 22.5% 33.0 8.4 34.1% Sun 11.3 15.3% 39.6 6.6 20.0% Mon 13.6 20.4% 48.0 8.4 21.2% Tue 17.4 27.9% 63.0 15.0 31.3% Wed 22.0 26.4% 85.0 22.0 34.9% est Thu 32.0 45.5% 119.0 34.0 40.0% proj Fri OD 75.0 134.4% 205.0 86.0 72.3% proj OD Rev 75.0 563.8 175.0% proj Psmulti 2.75 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 [2 days+10 hours] The Fate of the Furious midnights - 18.44m OD - 69.23m JTTW2 MN+OD - 69.33m 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 (edited) today its doing better than yesterday but acceleration has not been as much as I thought. Will not see 40% increase today. Probably looking at 25-30% increase. Currently at 70.12m and including midnights at 88.69m. Number of OD show will hit 100K in next hour. Edit: crossed 100K shows at 230PM. and in few minutes increased 600k. So its hitting the 3rd gear for sure. Edited April 11, 2017 by keysersoze123 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 F8 OD showtimes is more than 101,416, behind Warcraft(122,161), Kong: Skull Island(114,658). Showtimes 100,000+ JTTW2(106,968), The Great Wall(100,717), I Belonged to You(100,484). Midnights showtimes of F8 is 10,839, behind Warcraft(13,699) and F7(11,111) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 (edited) AoU had 81k shows and made 185m on a Tuesday. That's 370m with 160k shows and Fridays are usually 40% bigger than Tuesdays. That's 518m possible. 103k shows assigned up 8k so far today. 81% of 127k. It currently has 83.9% of prime time. I'm still thinking 180k, 62% of 290k. Fridays and Sundays are close to equal whether it's OW or not. Sunday matinees are packed but evenings are lighter. I wonder, if FF7 opened on a Friday, would OD be about the same. Going by the daily PS numbers and potential capacity, 500m+ is looking more likely to me now. Edit. They just added a block of shows. 105.6k now Edited April 11, 2017 by POTUS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 On Saturday, April 01, 2017 at 10:56 PM, keysersoze123 said: you were way off. But this will be presales driven. I can even see 200m presales. On Sunday, April 02, 2017 at 8:28 AM, POTUS said: That would be 580m OD Seemed out of the question at that time. May get a lot closer than we thought possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abra Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 4 hours ago, abra said: [2 days+ 11 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 18.23m - Now(+6.3%) Fri: 67.81m - Now (+9.1%) Sat: 31.46m - Now (+10.6%) [2 days+ 11 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 25.80m Fri: 44.80m Sat: 16.35m [2 days+ 6 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 19.51m - Now (+13.8%) Fri: 74.27m - Now (+19.5%) Sat: 35.18m - Now (+23..7%) [2 days+ 6 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 26.34m Fri: 47.41m Sat: 17.55m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 11, 2017 Author Share Posted April 11, 2017 No need to compare with Warcraft, since it'll open 200M higher... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 11, 2017 Author Share Posted April 11, 2017 Runs 1.29M/hour in the last 3 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 2 hours ago, Olive said: No need to compare with Warcraft, since it'll open 200M higher... The purpose the comparison is to see the trajectory it's on. WC and JTTW2 are the only large openers we have with 14 days of PS and with a slower ramp up than the norm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abra Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 23 hours ago, abra said: [3 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 17.15m - (+28.5%) Fri: 62.15m - (+31.1%) Sat: 28.45m - (+34.8%) [3 days+ 0 hours] Warcraft Midnight: 25.75m Fri: 44.76m Sat: 16.30m [2 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 20.99m - (+22.4%) Fri: 81.95m - (+31.9%) Sat: 38.83m - (+36.5%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
movieboner Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 40 minutes ago, abra said: [2 days+ 0 hours] The Fate of the Furious Midnight: 20.99m - (+22.4%) Fri: 81.95m - (+31.9%) Sat: 38.83m - (+36.5%) Those are massive jumps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kswiston Posted April 11, 2017 Share Posted April 11, 2017 Did Furious 7 have the largest opening day presales? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 I think presales record is either with warcraft or JTTW2. But F8 will crush all those records. Midnight presales are slow. It does not look like breaking midnight record of F7. I guess Olive was right that friday being a weekday would be a big factor. OD presales are growing at 1m+ per 30 minutes. Should hit 110m and if the run rate improves we could even see 120m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
