Weekend Actuals (Page 96): Dory 73M | IDR 41M | CI 18.2M | Shallows 16.8M | Conjuring 7.7M | Jones 7.6M

[JohnnyGossamer]

26 minutes ago, pretty reckless said:

Sorry but no. Blake is a knockout. Not many actresses can look nearly as good as her, she's a fashion icon and a good actress.

 

i cant name any other young actress than Jlaw making TS a success.

It's a low budget horror flick that was marketed well that'll gross about $60M. No other actress? There are dozens of gorgeous 25 to 35 year old actresses with some solid acting talent that could've made a movie marketed identically with the identical plot and reception from critics do pretty well. I don't buy that at all.

 

I think a HUGE reason that it broke out at all is because it's an above average SHARK attack movie released in early summer. The shark was just as big, bigger really, in the marketing as Lively.

Edited June 27, 2016 by JohnnyGossamer

[Nova]

15 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

It's a low budget horror flick that'll gross about $60M. No other actress? There are dozens of gorgeous 25 to 35 year old actresses with some solid acting talent that could've made a movie marketed identically with the identical plot and reception from critics do pretty well. I don't buy that at all.

You keep using the term dozens but honestly who are the dozens you're talking about? I don't mean to sound Shallow when I say this but The Shallows wasn't all about acting. The actress has to look the part of a stereotypical surfer. I don't see dozens of actresses playing that role. Are there some? Of course but I think it's ridiculous to say you could have thrown any number of dozens of actresses aged 25-35 in that role and it would have done just fine. I also think you're really really underestimating Lively's celebrity status. And if we are being honest with ourselves, most insiders had this opening to less than $10M a day before it was released. Yes it had great marketing. Yes it's a summer time flick but it also had an actress who sold the film. I think in this case you have to give credit where it's due. Just like we give credit to actors who are more established when their movies do well, you gotta give Lively the credit for The Shallows doing well too. I mean for goodness sakes she's practically the only person on the damn screen. If she wasn't popular enough people weren't going to go watch her in the theater. They would have waited for it to come out on home video. 

Edited June 27, 2016 by Nova

[superweirdo87]

Yeah, it was also a good counterprogramming opportunity and gave the audience a chance for intimate thrills amid all of these samey tentpoles where cities are getting destroyed, lol.

[JohnnyGossamer]

14 minutes ago, Nova said:

You keep using the term dozens but honestly who are the dozens you're talking about? I don't mean to sound Shallow when I say this but The Shallows wasn't all about acting. The actress has to look the part of a stereotypical surfer. I don't see dozens of actresses playing that role. Are there some? Of course but I think it's ridiculous to say you could have thrown any number of dozens of actresses aged 25-35 in that role and it would have done just fine. I also think you're really really underestimating Lively's celebrity status. And if we are being honest with ourselves, most insiders had this opening to less than $10M a day before it was released. Yes it had great marketing. Yes it's a summer time flick but it also had an actress who sold the film. 

It's a genre movie. A horror romp with shark attacks that delivers all the expected ingredients to an audience that wants to see a movie with an enormous man-eating fish. Lively is good and helps it along. To me, it's not much different than a Purge movie or a Paranormal Activity movie breaking out. There's audience for shark movies, especially when well marketed. Hell, Shark Week is friggin' huge. People like sharks.

 

Do you think it draws even close to this audience if it's just a surfing movie? Let's say it's Blue Crush 2016 so to speak?

 

Open Water's OW adjusts to just under The Shallows' OW. Difference being The Shallows is much more of crowd pleasing and directed more conventionally so it'll easily surpass the tickets sold of Open Water. Open Water had no identifiable stars whatsoever too. Sharks sell.

 

- Anna Kendrick, Emily Blunt, Elizabeth Olsen, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Felicity Jones, Keira Knightley, Jennifer Lawrence, Margot Robbie, Brie Larson, Alicia Vikander, Lily James, etc.

Edited June 27, 2016 by JohnnyGossamer

[EmpireCity]

Independence Day was overestimated.  Everything else was pretty close to on the number.  

[baumer]

Just now, nilephelan said:

Independence Day was overestimated.  Everything else was pretty close to on the number.  

 

By how much?  We need to know if it goes under 40...lol....lots of bets riding on that number.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

It's a genre movie. A horror romp with shark attack(s) that delivers all the expected ingredients to an audience that wants to see a man-eating movie with an enormous shark. Lively is good and helps it. To me, it's not much different than a Purge movie or a Paranormal Activity movie breaking out. There's audience for shark movies, especially when well marketed. Hell, Shark Week is friggin' huge. People like sharks.

 

Do you think draws even close to this audience if it's just a surfing movie? Let's say it's Blue Crush 2016 so to speak?

And at the same merit a lot of people were bothered by the fact that Hollywood was trying to make sharks seem vicious. I'm just going to end with this: The Shallows is Blake Lively and has been marketed as Blake Lively vs Shark. It made money. Lively deserves the credit. Just like she would have gotten the blame, had it failed. 

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, Baumer said:

 

By how much?  We need to know if it goes under 40...lol....lots of bets riding on that number.

 

Not enough to put it under $40m

[Nova]

Open Water's OW was like $1M. I don't see that adjusting to $17M but okay. 

[baumer]

Just now, Nova said:

Open Water's OW was like $1M. I don't see that adjusting to $17M but okay. 

 

The opening weekend when it went wide was 11 million.  

[baumer]

1 minute ago, nilephelan said:

 

Not enough to put it under $40m

 

Thanks Nile.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Baumer said:

 

The opening weekend when it went wide was 11 million.  

Oh okay...I didn't know. I looked up OW for it and it just said $1M. Thanks for letting me know! 

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, Nova said:

And at the same merit a lot of people were bothered by the fact that Hollywood was trying to make sharks seem vicious. I'm just going to end with this: The Shallows is Blake Lively and has been marketed as Blake Lively vs Shark. It made money. Lively deserves the credit. Just like she would have gotten the blame, had it failed. 

She deserves the same credit that any other talented actress would deserve if she were instead in the movie. I've given her credit. But, I will not give her more credit than is deserved.

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, Nova said:

Open Water's OW was like $1M. I don't see that adjusting to $17M but okay. 

That's my bad, Nova. I should've specified what Baumer mentioned. I apologize. Either way, good debate. Hoping the Dory and Shallows estimates go UP and the IDR estimates go DOWN.

[baumer]

I see both sides of the argument here  @Nova and @JohnnyGossamer.  I think Lively did a great job selling the film and because she did it got people into the theater.  She definitely has the look for this type of film.  So I agree with Nova there...but I understand what Johnny is saying as well.  I just think that the concept and how it gets marketed is more important than who is in it but at the same time if the right person isn't in it, it could tank.

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

By how much?  We need to know if it goes under 40...lol....lots of bets riding on that number.

Yes, it needs to go down as much as possible because of our 300 points bet. 40M is a dangerous number. If it pulls a 2.5 I am FUCKED. And a 2.5 is more likely than not. 

[baumer]

It didn't drop below 40 @CJohn

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

That's my bad, Nova. I should've specified what Baumer mentioned. I apologize. Either way, good debate. Hoping the Dory and Shallows estimates go UP and the IDR estimates go DOWN.

Good debate. Because I do believe it's all about the right role for the actor/actress and I  think Lively struck a good role and then sold it off really well. But yes hopefully you're right with those estimates haha 

Edited June 27, 2016 by Nova

[CJohn]

Just now, Baumer said:

It didn't drop below 40 @CJohn

 

 

[baumer]

BTW....Fuck Dory.  Stupid blue fish.