ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[terrestrial]

On 15/12/2016 at 8:02 PM, water said:

what star wars movies has everyone seen in theaters? i'm 21 and for me it's only been rots and tfa (and ro as of 2 days from now)

 

On 15/12/2016 at 8:19 PM, Daxtreme said:

So young! 

holy crap 

yep

On 15/12/2016 at 8:31 PM, Xinau said:

All of them, when originally released, except special editions for TESB & ROTJ. 

I was 11 in May of 1977.

There are two things I wish every human could experience as they happened: the Apollo Moon landings and 1977 Star Wars.

 

I've seem SW 1-2 and 4-7 in their first runs in theatres. SW 4 is the frist one I bought from self-earned money and went alone, as family too snobish for Sci-Fi

(edit, arrgh, for me SW 4 is still SW 1 = I didn't see SW 3 in the cinema after I was fed up over SW 2)

 

 

On 15/12/2016 at 8:19 PM, GiantCALBears said:

What do we make of the ok OS start so far and how SW (while still expanding internationally) seems to skew more domestic than a lot of the bigger franchises?

 

You are a bit late. If a franchise doesn't develop after a few episodes... into 1/3 dom and 2/3 OS it is US skewinf SW 7 had 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$936,662,225	45.3%
+ Foreign:	$1,131,561,399	54.7%
= Worldwide:	$2,068,223,624

 

 

Edited December 16, 2016 by terrestrial

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, druv10 said:

Edwards MarqE 

 

IMAX? If so you'll get the Dunkirk prologue. Good decision.

[druv10]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Baumer living rent-free in your mind.

Lol, so true but right now my main worry is previews/OW/ domestic total. OS performance isn't registering.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I don't want to hear now from the same people who were saying it IS a SW MOVIE to now go back on that in your analysis using "spin off" if it underperforms expectations. Well it still made Disney a lot of $ isn't really an excuse for having your opinion be off. 

Well it is the dominant franchise DOM. But it could also be viewed as just another blockbuster in many countries where SW isn't as omnipresent. Not excusing it, just giving a reason. Again, we'll see how it holds up over the next few weeks. If it continues to be very weak, than maybe the SW brand (at least outside the main saga) wasn't as huge OS as we thought.

[James]

About the OS numbers - SW always was more of a domestic player. Let's not forget that the PT was dwarfed OS by LOTR, Potter. And yes, the franchise is expanding, but what TFA made should not be expected so easily from the sequels. ER is bad. Really bad. And nostalgia played a HUUUUUGE factor in that gross. I seriously doubt SW8 has a chance at 1b OS. As someone here said, even people who didn't want to see TFA in theaters ended up doing it 

 

Also, on another point heavily discussed around here: people saying that RO will automatically have better legs than TFA DOM and especially OS because it opened lower: I think some of you don't realize how much of a clear schedule TFA had DOM and especially OS. It had no heavy competition. RO faces Sing, Passengers, The Great Wall, AC plus your ordinary drama/comedy fare. These players may not be huge DOM (even though they will be way bigger than what TFA had), but they will combine for a big ass gross internationally. 

Edited December 15, 2016 by James

[GiantCALBears]

3 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Whose expectations? We have a pretty wide range, even here.

There is a consensus though, you can tell in the predictions. Obviously there is a wide range dude, I can't count every outlier on both sides lol.

[druv10]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

IMAX? If so you'll get the Dunkirk prologue. Good decision.

Yes, one of the reason was Dunkirk prologue.

Edited December 15, 2016 by druv10

[Dementeleus]

13 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Which underperformed many predictions on this specific forum OS... Fair or not?

 

TFA underperformed the WW expectations here? I dunno, man. I know No Prisoners ran a contest so we have all the data somewhere, but again, I remember a huge range of predictions. Some obviously were way too high, but my memory is that it ended up somewhere in the middle of what people were saying. Perhaps this was because it over-performed domestically, but WW is WW.

 

Lemme see if I can dig it up.

 

edit, updated for @GiantCALBears: Found the thread and pasted the numbers into a Google sheet so I could sort them. There were 137 predictions and worldwide TFA finished between spots 61 and 62 -- sorted lowest to highest. So essentially right in the middle, just a hair's breadth less than absolute middle.

 

Here's the thread with first post containing all the data.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20705-star-wars-prediction-contest-winners-announced/

 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, druv10 said:

Yes, one of the reasons was Dunkirk prologue.

 

You're gonna have to report on it here, haha.

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, James said:

...the PT was dwarfed OS by LOTR, Potter, even Narnia.

 

C'mon, man. I'll of course give you LOTR and Potter, but forget "being dwarfed by Narnia", SITH performed slightly better than it.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I mean, just how low do you think the OS gross can go? Below 500m? I honestly don't know, I don't really follow OS BO all that much.

[James]

2 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

C'mon, man. I'll of course give you LOTR and Potter, but forget "being dwarfed by Narnia", SITH performed slightly better than it.

My bad, my bad. I was under the impression that Narnia made 600m OS. Sorry!

Edited December 15, 2016 by James

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

I mean, just how low do you think the OS gross can go? Below 500m? I honestly don't know, I don't really follow OS BO all that much.

 

Who knows. Could just be more backloaded than TFA over this opening weekend, which would give a misleading impression after the first day of shows.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

1 minute ago, James said:

My bad, my bad. I was under the impression that Narnia made 600m OS. Sorry!

[James]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

I mean, just how low do you think the OS gross can go? Below 500m? I honestly don't know, I don't really follow OS BO all that much.

Not even I'm brave enough to go there. It depends on the competition and China. And on Japan, even though I have a feeling it's not gonna go well for it there. I still see around 550-600m. Maybe a bit more if it develops good legs.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, James said:

Not even I'm brave enough to go there. It depends on the competition and China. And on Japan, even though I have a feeling it's not gonna go well for it there. I still see around 550-600m. Maybe a bit more if it develops good legs.

Ok, that's not too bad honestly. I've been thinking 600-700m the past few months, so not a huge drop from that. All I really care about is it going above $1 billion honestly. Especially with ER this bad.

[James]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Ok, that's not too bad honestly. I've been thinking 600-700m the past few months, so not a huge drop from that. All I really care about is it going above $1 billion honestly. Especially with ER this bad.

If it the US does it's job it will

[terrestrial]

Quote

SW R1... anything less than $120 million will be seen as a surprise. On the other, I don’t think it will come close to Civil War’s opening, or even BvS. I think it will earn just over $140 million during its opening weekend. Let’s go with $143 million to be more precise.

Moana ... with $11 million over the weekend and just over $160 million in total.

Collateral Beauty ...be in a fight to top $10 million over the weekend. I think it will get there, but barely.

Office Christmas Party ...earning just under $10 million over the weekend.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them will round out the top five with between $5 million and $6 million.

Manchester by the Sea...barely more than 1,200 theaters. ... perhaps enough ... just over $5 million. ..sixth place with just under $5 million is more likely.

La La Land,... just 200 theaters. ... then it will grab tenth place with $2 million. It could theoretically double that, but I think just over $3 million is more likely. This is still a fantastic result and will allow it to expand significantly over the coming weeks.

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/218070830-Weekend-Predictions-Will-Rogue-Awaken-the-Box-Office

[GiantCALBears]

16 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

TFA underperformed the WW expectations here? I dunno, man. I know No Prisoners ran a contest so we have all the data somewhere, but again, I remember a huge range of predictions. Some obviously were way too high, but my memory is that it ended up somewhere in the middle of what people were saying. Perhaps this was because it over-performed domestically, but WW is WW.

 

Lemme see if I can dig it up.

 

edit, updated for @GiantCALBears: Found the thread and pasted the numbers into a Google sheet so I could sort them. There were 137 predictions and worldwide TFA finished between spots 61 and 62 -- sorted lowest to highest. So essentially right in the middle, just a hair's breadth less than absolute middle.

 

Here's the thread with first post containing all the data.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20705-star-wars-prediction-contest-winners-announced/

 

If you would've told the forum before release TFA was going to do $930m domestic I guarantee the consensus would've been $1.3b+ OS. The good news is we under predicted the domestic share so maybe this is foreshadowing of what is to come.

Edited December 15, 2016 by GiantCALBears

[junkshop36]

57 minutes ago, water said:

what star wars movies has everyone seen in theaters? i'm 21 and for me it's only been rots and tfa (and ro as of 2 days from now)

 

ESB('80), ROTJ('83), all 3 special editions, TPM, AOTC, ROTS, Clone Wars, TFA

 

Seeing RO tonight