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CAYOM YEAR 2: PART 2 (Predictions)

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- January Tracking

(In Year 1, the January tracking was always with in $4 million of the actual opening weekend!)

January 6-8

The January Gem which will be the first film to start off Year 2. It boost a strong cast and Ben Stiller is directing (he has received a lot of buzz as being director thanks his directing of The Impact of Sir Roger the Alien). Tracking suggest The January Gem isn't going to be a gem. The January Gem is tracking for 10M opening weekend. This films doesn't deserve a first weekend of January opening.

January 13-16 (MLK weekend)

My Winter Retreat kicks off MLK weekend is style with horror. The film hasn't received a large amount of buzz but it has two advantages Rob Zombie and is launching on friday the 13th. As the first horror film in awhile My Winter Retreat is tracking decently at 20M on the four day weekend. If it does go higher expect a more front loaded friday number.

January 20-22

Bulletproof is the first big event film of the year. This male oriented film should grab the attention of the males audiences and possibly the female crowd too. Releasing over 3,000 theaters, the 39M budgeted action/fantasy film is tracking extremely well at 24M opening weekend. The film should be a big success.

January 27-29

Throw Ted Into the Fire isn't tracking well at all. Taylor Lautner can't seem to carry a film on his own. Tracking suggest a flopping 4M opening weekend.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- February Tracking

February 3-5

ADAM is starting off on Super Bowl weekend. This film is based off of a pretty well-known Christian book. Christians might turn out and see this horror film over the weekend. Super Bowl weekend is a good time for horror films and last years Seduction captured 20M. ADAM's tracking isn't suggesting a number that high. ADAM should counter-program the Super Bowl with 12M.

February 10-12

The Perfect Gift is tracking well since it has received hype from female audiences. The Perfect Gift will know doubt be helped by Valentine's Day coming on Tuesday. Ryan Gosling is hot will audiences now but Katherine Heigl is box office poison. Tracking is saying a healthy 25M opening weekend launch.

February 17-20 (President's Day weekend)

VR Net and The Whale duel each other on President's Day weekend. Both are man driven films that might hurt each other. VR Net is tracking strongly at a four day weekend of 22M while the found footage adoption of Moby Dick is tracking extremely well at 27M. Both should remain neck to neck on tracking and the weekend will determine the winner.

February 24-26

Fifth Expert closes off February and the first part of Year 2. Boosting a strong cast and low budget, Fifth Expert should make a good amount of profit. Tracking is saying a 23M opening weekend which is strong for film in the last weekend of February.

January and February should be pretty average months. Bulletproof, The Perfect Gift, and Fifth Expert should be the leaders of these basically quiet months. However VR Net and The Whale are rising quickly in interest. Both could turn out to be huge openers but legs are questionably.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- March Tracking

March 2-4

The Island and Pokemon: The Journey Begins kick off the spring. How the first weekend of March fairs is a good indicator on how the rest of the year will fall in place. Pokemon is incredibly popular despite the fact that popularity is starting to fade. The film has a respectable cast and is being released on a prime weekend. The PG rating will mean that families are a target and should turn out for this. Pokemon: The Journey Begins is currently tracking at 35M opening weekend which is solid for the first installment of the series. Counter programming the family targeting Pokemon is The Island. Again this film has a respectably cast none of which are massive draws however. The main draw this this film is the director. Tim Burton. Thus island psychological thriller is right up Burton's alley. The 75M project is tracking strongly at 30M opening weekend. Both Pokemon and The Island should start March off on the same level as last years when Land of Storms earned 32.8M and The End of the Universe earned 28.3M.

March 9-11

S-L-A-V-E openings in the wake of the first weekend of March. This weekend too has been historically large and S-L-A-V-E will be no shrinking violet. With a 130M price tag, S-L-A-V-E is the biggest budgeted film of the spring and the director Breck Eisner hasn't directed a big budgeted film. Online buzz is high and awareness is growing. The trailers have been solid and not disappointing. S-L-A-V-E is tracking to open around 38M. The studio will have to rely on strong word of mouth and good legs for profitability.

March 16-18

From directed Michael Bay and actors The Rock and Shia LaBeouf comes Epic Chase. This film is different than most Bay films in that Bay isn't destroying the world or using robots. Tracking for this film is lack luster at 14M opening weekend. The budget is only 35M so it might break even.

March 23-25

Headline is tracking averagely at 13M opening weekend. It should be another quiet March weekend.

March 30-April 1

Midnight: Revealed thunders into theaters with a massive budget at 100M and a 3,992 theater count. Vampire/werewolf films tend to get big theater counts but normally don't see this big of a budget and this impressive of a cast. Twitter and fan sites are raging with discussions about the film but tracking suggest that Midnight: Revealed won't changes the trend in vampire/werewolf films. Midnight: Revealed in tracking toward a meek 22M opening weekend lower than last years Nightmare Chronicle 22.1M and City of Bones 29.0M. it should be noted that both failed to pass 75M by the end of their runs.

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despite the fact that popularity is starting to fade.

From Wikipedia:

In the US, Black and White sold more than 1.08 million copies on day one, breaking the previous day-one record held by predecessors Diamond and Pearl of 780,000 copies.[95] According to the NPD Group, Nintendo sold 1.3 million units of White and 1.1 million units of Black in March 2011, making them the #1 and #2 top selling games in the US for the month.[96] In April 2011, Nintendo's financial earnings report confirmed that Pokémon Black and White had sold 11.5 million copies worldwide, making them the highest selling DS games for Nintendo in the 2010-11 financial year, and third overall, behind only Wii Sports and Wii Sports Resort.[97]

On Black and White sales. There is absolutely no indication that the popularity for Pokemon is starting to fade.
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From Wikipedia:On Black and White sales. There is absolutely no indication that the popularity for Pokemon is starting to fade.

yeah but thats the game series which while still big is like only a third of the original game's sales. But that talk is all meaningless because were talking the anime series and movies which have practically died down to a comas pulse here in the U.S. (still strong in Japan though)
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Which is still somewhat irrelevant to the running of this game, since part of the whole point of this game is to give life and success to projects that wouldn't happen in real life because of various biases/studio screwups.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- April Tracking

April 6-8

Judgment Day begins April. Judgement Day is remaining quiet on internet buzz but it has plenty of time to build up anticipation. The found footage film is currently tracking toward a 12M opening weekend. The budget is only 19M and it should make profit.

April 13-15

Big budget b-movie and Todd Philips raunchy comedy battle this weekend. Sea Monsters' Invasion is tracking surprisingly well at 21M. PЯom is coming in three weeks before prom which could hopefully result in some strong legs. Ken Jeong (Yes he is in it!!) project is tracking toward 19M opening weekend.

April 20-22

Delta moves into the third weekend of April and shouldn't change the quietness of the month. Tracking is suggesting an opening weekend of 16M. Meanwhile Gorillas is tracking toward an 6M opening weekend.

April 27-29

Mara, Daughter of the Nile closes off the spring. Don't expect Mara to reach the heights of last years Con Air 2 or Cinderella which grossed 51.3M and 29.7M respectively. The 20M budgeted Egyptian tale is tracking toward an solid 16M opening weekend.

Spring should be rather quiet this year. S-L-A-V-E might break the 40M but it isn't locked. Pokemon should have strong legs throughout the March/April frame due to a lack of any rival films. The April 13th weekend should be April's largest weekend and could see some surprise hits. Otherwise spring will be a big yawn.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- May Tracking

May 4-6

Ant-Man hits off the summer in style with a superhero picture. Ant-Man is nowhere close to has popular as X-Men, Spider-Man or Iron Man but audiences should be hungry for a big event film. Ant-Man is tracking strongly at 45M opening weekend.

May 11-13

Trader Haters moves in the second weekend. Interest in this film is high and awareness is rapidly growing. Tracking is suggesting an 36M opening weekend.

May 18-20

The first family film since Pokemon and the first animated film of Year 2, Barbarians should be a big event family film. However the material is hard to sell and might result in a lower than expected opening weekend. Barbarians is currently tracking toward an opening weekend of 50M.

May 25-28 (Memorial Day weekend)

Rivals slides into Memorial Day weekend and will try to change the quieter than normal May. The fantasy/action film is tracking toward a very strong four day weekend total of 60M. This film if it gets good reviews should dominate the June month.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- June Tracking

June 1-3

The Impact of Sir Roger the Alien starts of a quiet June. Normal a film like this wouldn't be tracking well but thanks to a barren June, well-known cast, and enormous hype it might just break out. The 3D and IMAX screens should help boost inflation and Charlie Sheen and tons of well-known actor cameos might draw people in. The film has struggled in production and the studio might ditch the film last minute and not market it all out. Review shouldn't be good and a front loaded weekend is almost a lock. Tracking suggest a very strong 40M opening weekend for The Impact of Sir Roger the Alien.

June 8-10

Liam Neeson comes to theaters in Vengeance. Liam Neeson has a fantastic year last year with The Horn which gathered a powerful 36.1M opening weekend and finished at 158.7M. Vengeance is tracking for a very strong 42M opening weekend and could turn out to be a huge hit.

June 15-17

Time Keepers continues to target male audiences. Time Keepers is not tracking well at all mostly because the male demographic will be exhausted by this time. Tracking is at 26M opening weekend.

June 22-24

Union 51 is the third found footage film of the year. The first trailer got massive interest however the film looks too similar to past monster films. Union 51 might be a generic film or it could not be. The former is more likely. Union 51 is being released extremely wide at about 3,500 theaters and isn't tracking good at 15M opening weekend.

June 29-July 1

The War of the Worlds and Father's Quake close off the June month. Father's Quake is tracking strongly at 49M opening weekend and should be one of the male driven films that is an event film of the month. Meanwhile The War of the Worlds opens. This film has a solid cast but it is a musical. Early reactions to the film aren't too good but that could change. A musical version of The War of the Worlds is different but almost too unique and strange. Tracking is poor at a 20M opening weekend which is a good start for a musical but not a larger budgeted sci-fi film based on well-known material.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- July Tracking

July 6-8

Starcraft kicks off July which is the biggest month of the year. Starcraft is tracking very well at 125M on the five day weekend and is tracking to be the films biggest film of the year.

July 13-15

Marathon Men is tracking toward a fantastic 41M opening weekend which is great for the Jim Carrey, Adam Sandler, Will Ferrell, and Eddie Murphy comedy.

July 20-22

The Adventures of the Cosmos hits off on historically one of the largest weekends of the year. This date is normally dedicated to big blockbuster sequels or action/superhero flicks. The Adventures of the Cosmos is neither of these. This sci-fi adventure film is tracking toward a decent 55M opening weekend.

July 27-29

U.S.S. Seawolf will end the month strong. Tracking is pointing toward a 45M opening weekend which is solid for Matt Damon lead R rated action thriller. Altogether July should remain relatively quiet compared to previous Julys.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- August Tracking

August 3-5

Pitt and Jolie collaborate in New World Chronicle: His Story. The film's trailer was great and excited lots of buzz. August will need to make up some ground on the summer since most of the summer season was rather dull. New World Chronicles: His Story is currently tracking at 52M opening weekend which should be a solid beginning for the 150M project.

August 10-12

Salem Witch Trial film The Witch of Blackbird Pond slides into the second weekend of August. Mystery gothic horror mixed with romance is fairly hot with female audiences and The Witch of Blackbird Pond is tracking finely at 32M opening weekend.

August 17-19

World War II film The Few is doing surprisingly well on tracking. Joseph Gordon-Levitt is going lots of business this summer and The Few will be one of the films he was glad to be in. The Few is tracking for a 30M opening weekend.

August 24-26

Subway Nest is the first family film in a long time and family audiences are clearly showing that they will turn out for Subway Nest. Subway Nest is tracking at a fantastic 31M opening weekend. Exorcism of Jessica Winters will be the main horror event of August which has shown horror does well this month. Exorcism of Jessica Winters is tracking strong at 22M opening weekend.

August 31-September 3 (Labor day weekend)

Horror films play well over Labor Day weekend but Labor Day isn't looking good. Tracking indicates Labor Day will do poorly over Labor Day weekend with only 8M on the four day weekend.

Summer should be relatively quiet and dull. StarCraft, Rivals, New World Chronicle: His Story, and Barbarians are the only blockbuster tracking films although U.S.S Seawolf, Vengeance, The Adventures of the Cosmos, and Father's Quake could entire that catagory soon. Not a lot of films scream 60M+ openers but for most films an 35M-50M opening weekend range will be great since most have a low budget.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- September Tracking

September 7-9

Vampire Night and Red in the Night are aiding in tracking toward the lowest grossing weekend of the year with an awful 7M and 10M respectively.

September 14-16

Scat isn't looking to improve things either with 8M opening weekend according to tracking.

September 21-23

Baseball drama Imperceptive is looking to turn this around for the miserably September. Imperceptive is looking at 18M opening weekend according to tracking.

September 28-30

Eternal Sleep is tracking excellently and should be September's highest grosser at 23M opening weekend.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- October Tracking

October 5-7

October is here and horror films are popping up every weekend. Hotel of the Lost starts this phrase with tracking indicating a 20M opening weekend. Clay motion film Halloweentown (3D) is also tracking well at 18M opening weekend. Halloweentown should see strong legs over October.

October 12-14

The 13th Night II: The Interrogation Room is the sequel to last years film which grossed 13.3M opening weekend and got mediocre reviews. The sequel is tracking toward a 13M opening weekend. Expect Halloweentown or Eternal Sleep to lead the weekend.

October 19-21

Spielberg didn't learn his lesson last year with Elantris which opening in April and earned 22.0M opening weekend. Martin/Martian is tracking better than Elantris which was tracking toward a 24M opening weekend at Martin/Martian is heading toward the same opening with tracking saying a 25M opening weekend. The Vast Dark Part Two: The Sacrament opens this weekend and the first film earned 19.3M opening weekend. The Vast Dark Part Two is tracking toward a excellent 26M opening weekend as it is clearly a must see for horror fans.

October 26-28

Simon Says ends October and the fall season with tracking indicating a 14M opening weekend.

All together fall has been a dismal time except for Enternal Sleep, Halloweentown, and The Vast Dark Part Two which should end as the highest grossers. Hopefully Martin/Martian can prove tracking wrong and break out and Imperceptive and Hotel of the Lost can exhibit some form of legs.

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Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- November Tracking

November 2-4

Dragon Age: Darkness Over Ferelden kicks off the winter/holiday season. After a dismal fall a lot of movie geeks will be dying for a strong holiday season. Dragon Age is tracking to at fantastic 66M opening weekend.

November 9-11

Appian Way is opening on the quietest weekend of November. This is a time for dramas and romantic films to get a chance to get attention in the mists of family and fantasy films. Appian Way is tracking for a strong 28M opening weekend.

November 16-18

Peter Jackson's The Chronicle of Novara: The Stone of Armagon opens on the largest holiday weekend of the year. This big budget fantasy film is tracking well at 75M opening weekend. Meanwhile vampire film Devotion is trying to counter program the Novara. According to tracking Devotion should open around 33M opening weekend which is good for a vampire related film.

November 21-25 (Thanksgiving weekend)

Tim Burton's Little Demons strikes off this Thanksgiving weekend. Johnny Depp, Penelope Cruz, and Lea Michele are among the few in the amazing voice cast in this PG-13 stop-motion animated musical. Tracking is good with 29M on the five day weekend.

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I'm just going to finish this up.

Hiccup's Tracking Numbers- December Tracking

November 30-December 2

Aerophobia is tracking toward a 9M opening weekend.

December 7-9

Warcraft is tracking toward a 63M opening weekend.

December 14-16:

The Seafarer is tracking toward a 59M opening weekend.

December 21-23:

Wednesday, December 19th: Guardians of Life is tracking toward a five day weekend of 80M.

December 28-30:

Tuesday, December 25th: Final Fantasy: Dawn of Souls is tracking toward a six day weekend of 115M.

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