Weekend Actuals (Page 61): Kingsman 39M | It 29.8M | Ninjago 20.4M | AA 6.3M | mother! 3.3M | Friend Request 2M (lol)

[Fancyarcher]

21 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Similar budget to Storks, I guess it was cheaper than Lego Batman due to lack of IPs to license

Also the amount of "lego characters" they had create / use was probably smaller too.

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I imagine Ninjago will be pretty much gone when Thor opens, since that will likely play heavily to families as well.

 

Nah, it will still be plenty available until the next animated film.

[YM!]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

MLP could also fill that niche too. 

How much theaters is it in though? And I think MLP will attract less than Ninjago.

[DAJK]

I have to say, I'm straight up shocked at Ninjago's performance. It's marketing was much better than Storks, and I did not think it could possibly do as poorly as it is...

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Boner Omega said:

 

 

In my experience, we have never NOT had a kids movie ever.  They will keep something booked, no matter how poorly it is doing, just to have a kids movies playing.  

 

If Ninjago wasn't released, theaters would hang onto Emoji/Nut Job/DM3 until the next one rolls along.

 

In October, there is My Little Pony and Gnome Alone (no idea this one was even coming, but it is wide on current schedules from hsx, even though it's not on Mojo)...so there are options for theaters to drop the male-skewing underperformer for a likely female-skewing underperformer or whatever Gnome Alone is if it releases (which probably at least doesn't skew gender)...

 

I wouldn't guarantee Lego N makes it to Thor in more than 2K theaters, unless it holds really well the next few weeks (since its opening is already so low)... 

[a2k]

As to IT over 300 dom, it will be only 35 away from 300 after a weekend of 28.7m (265m cume).

 

Just rest of the weekends combined will get it

16 (-44%) + 10 (-37.5%) + 6 (-40%) + 3.5 (-42%) + 2 (-43%) + 1 (-50%) + 1.5 (remaining including dollar bump) = 40m

 

Last Mon-Thu was 37% of the whole week so using that ratio we get 15m more from rest of the weekdays combined if the rest of the weekends are 40m.

 

That's 265 + 40 + 15 = 320

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

MLP could also fill that niche too. 

 

That will only appeal to little girls and weird men, so it's going to be even weaker than Ninjago.

[WrathOfHan]

Early projections cuz I'm bored:

 

Kingsman:

 

Sep 22: 40M (12M weekdays, 52M Total)

Sep 29: 18M (5.4M weekdays, 75.4M Total)

Oct 6: 9M (2.7M weekdays, 87.1M Total)

Oct 13: 4.5M (1.3M weekdays, 92.9M Total)

Oct 20: 1.8M (500k weekdays, 95.2M Total)

Oct 27: 1M (300k weekdays, 96.5M Total)

 

Final Total: 100M (2.5x)

 

Ninjago:

 

Sep 22: 21M (3.7M weekdays, 24.7M Total)

Sep 29: 10.5M (1.9M weekdays, 37.1M Total)

Oct 6: 6.3M (1.1M weekdays, 44.5M Total)

Oct 13: 4.1M (700k weekdays, 49.3M Total)

Oct 20: 2M (400k weekdays, 51.7M Total)

Oct 27: 1.4M (300k weekdays, 53.4M Total)

Nov 3: 800k (200k weekdays, 54.4M Total)

 

Final Total: 57M (2.71x) (needs some more thought BUT I think October 20 will hurt it a lot)

 

It: 

 

Sep 22: 29.4M (9.8M weekdays, 284.6M Total)

Sep 29: 16.2M (5.9M weekdays, 306.7M Total)

Oct 6: 9.7M (3.5M weekdays, 320M Total)

Oct 13: 5M (1.7M weekdays, 326.7M Total)

Oct 20: 2.5M (800k weekdays, 330M Total)

Oct 27: 1.5M (600k weekdays, 332.1M Total)

Nov 3: 700k (200k weekdays, 333M Total)

 

Final Total: 336M (2.72x)

 

Friend Request:

 

Sep 22: 1.7M (400k weekdays, 2.1M Total)

Sep 29: 500k (100k weekdays, 2.7M Total)

Oct 6: 100k (20k weekdays, 2.8M Total)

Final Total: 3M (1.76x lmao)

Edited September 23, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[a2k]

9 minutes ago, YourMother said:

It doesn't have a release date but has a director so either a 2021/2022 release date or BBR gets retooled to be an original film.

i thought the brick element in the 'Billion Brick Race' referred to lego bricks, so not sure how it can be retooled to be an original film.

7 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Lego Batman was $80m so I imagine LM2 will be around that maybe a bit higher.

 

I imagine Billion Brick Race will stay in development for now. If they release it in 2021 then that’ll be enough of a gap after LM2 as Scooby is in 2020

yeah i think even 1 year gap would be fine after lego-movie-2 and a 2020 release. ninjago shouldn't scare them much i hope. it was very boy/male leaning and had some issues that other lego movies may not have.

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, Boner Omega said:

 

Nah, it will still be plenty available until the next animated film.

I think Coco is having a 4,000 TC but I wonder if The Star will have a big TC, like 3,000+, Sony's other animated movies this year had some big TCs. Emoji opened in 4,000+, and Lost Village had 3,600+.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, YourMother said:

I think Coco is having a 4,000 TC but I wonder if The Star will have a big TC, like 3,000+, Sony's other animated movies this year had some big TCs. Emoji opened in 4,000+, and Lost Village had 3,600+.

The Star is going to open in like 2k theaters, maybe even less.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

yeah i think even 1 year gap would be fine after lego-movie-2 and a 2020 release. ninjago shouldn't scare them much i hope. it was very boy/male leaning and had some issues that other lego movies may not have.

Not to mention, Ninjago might be the forgotten one in comparison to LB and Lego 1 and no one bothered to see it.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Star is going to open in like 2k theaters, maybe even less.

I was thinking that too. Maybe 2,500. But I'm curious about its TC.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

The Star is going to open in like 2k theaters, maybe even less.

I doubt it...if Nut Job Never got 4K, and Leap got 2575, this movies is gonna be higher than 2000...

[Zakiyyah6]

Don't understand any 40mil projections for Kingsman off of that Friday. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

I doubt it...if Nut Job Never got 4K, and Leap got 2575, this movies is gonna be higher than 2000...

Those two released in August. The Star is releasing the week before Thanksgiving when there will be one movie in over 4k theaters and three very close to if not at that mark with another big TC film coming 5 days later.

Edited September 23, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Zakiyyah6]

This has been a terrible year at the box office for animated films with the exception of Boss Baby and DM3.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Those two released in August. The Star is releasing the week before Thanksgiving when there will be one movie in over 4k theaters and three very close to if not at that mark with another big TC film coming 5 days later.

And it's the 1st animated one in awhile that will also skew Christmas...theaters love animated and will book it just as holiday family programming if nothing else...I'd bet 3K minimum through the Thanksgiving holiday...

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

And it's the 1st animated one in awhile that will also skew Christmas...theaters love animated and will book it just as holiday family programming if nothing else...I'd bet 3K minimum through the Thanksgiving holiday...

But a Pixar film that's guaranteed to make much more money is coming out five days later. Which do you think theaters will go for? 

[Blipsy]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

two spinoffs in a row (nevermind in the same year) seems to be a rare thing. can't think of any other examples. minions1 and 2 will be punctuated by dm3, star wars is alternating and so is the conjuring universe so far.

Disney released both "Planes" movies in between Cars 2 and Cars 3. I don't think Cars 3 would have done that much better if those spin-offs (or just the second one) hadn't been released, but they certainly couldn't have helped.

 

Anyway, I do think Lego Ninjago will have decent legs. If Lego Ninjago is too "boy-centric", My Little Pony will be far too "girl-centric" to do much damage to it. So, I think it will make about as much money as Storks. I wouldn't be surprised if "Billion Brick Race" gets cancelled at this point, or redone into a direct-to-video movie. 

Edited September 23, 2017 by Blipsy