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Madagascar 3 OS Thread

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Around $10M since last weekend then, $500M OS is still on I think.

I expect the current markets (Aus, NZ, Switzerland, Greece, Italy) to generate at least $8M to bring the total to $430M.Therefore, to get $500M, we need $70M from these remaining markets:Germany: 10/2Austria 10/5Ireland: 10/19UK: 10/19Question: $500M - Lock or No Lock? :)
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    [*]Paramount Pictures International reported that DreamWorks Animation’s Madagascar 3 continued to play well in 1,514 locations in 28 countries and grossed $6.1m for a $422.7m running total after 17 weekends.

The film opened in German-speaking Switzerland on $1.2m from 91 screens and the local tally for all of Switzerland stands at $3m. The family film held firm at number one in Australia where box office climbed 32% to $3.6m from 286 for $15.3m.

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500 are absolutely locked!

The wildcard is clearly is Germany. There is such huge deviation in the German numbers that make it very difficult to predict.In contrast, UK numbers are very steady -- you can almost forecast the final outcome with near certainty.Let us take Brave and IA4 numbers as the lower and upper boundaries of our forecast. Then we have:Germany: Brave ($14M) IA4 ($65M)UK: Brave ($34M) and IA4 ($47m)The difference in the German numbers between Brave and IA4 is huge: $50M ($65 - $14)In contrast, the difference in UK is just $13M.This means we can predict with high probability a Uk number of $40M -- which is just in the middle of Brave and IA4.The question then is Germany. The average is also $40 -- but there is such a huge standard deviation that it hard to assess its likelihood.
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