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Barnack

Annual deadline most profitable blockbuster 2018

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Most profitable 2018 (wait for the It, secret life of pets and so on) Deadline series started with Get out at number 10:

 

http://deadline.com/2018/03/get-out-box-office-profit-2017-1202345412/

 

This year look like it could be extremely brutal for the margin if get out is not a weird exception, if a movie like that has a $77m world P&A I would not expect them (it is true it got a lot of award season spending but still, not a big release outside some markets) to have declined this year and the world home entertainment sound just nuts:

 

Just 34m in revenues for a movie like Get out (what the hell...............), in 2017 home entertainment was still has big or bigger than theatrical for every annual report I saw and raw spending in the US was still around the double in home video than at the box office:

http://deadline.com/2018/01/u-s-home-entertainment-spending-rises-to-20-5-billion-1202239252/

 

At least world TV seem to have maintained quite well.

 

Wonder how accurate that is, but if a movie like Get Out revenues are lower than is box office, that a really thought new world, would have been 150-170% of them at least not so long ago.

 

Prediction for the top 3 and the order ?

Beauty, Despicable Me 3, It, Jumanji sound like strong candidate here depending of their respective bonus structure., Star Wars being always a possible and who knows about Wolf Warrior ... maybe they will not consider non hollywood entry.

 

 

P.S. Sorry if it was already posted elsewhere.

Edited by Barnack
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It did really well, do bear in mind though that a low production budget doesn't mean they cheaped out on marketing, I imagine it had similar marketing budget to other big movies.

 

Wonder if Get Out was more profitable than Split or vice versa.

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7 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

will transformers make it for a fifth consecutive time?

Really doubt that it is over Thor 3 / Guardian 2, Spielberg, Bay, Hasbro and co. deal on those are quite good (Paramount give something like 25% of the gross or something like that).

 

With only 7 title left you need to put in there:

 

For sure

beauty

Despicable me 3

Jumanji

It

Star wars

 

And before a Transformer 5

 

Fast and furious

HomeComing

Wonder Woman

 

That is already 8 of them, a bit surprised Thor is above any of those but Fast 8 talent deal could be insane at this point.

Edited by Barnack
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10 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Why not top 20 this time?

Probably in part because they will have a bottom 5, but also they put less and less effort into it, look like.....

 

They now have 9 lines of evaluated numbers in them (including the rental were they seem to use some rough (dom, intl, china) not even by market breakdown retention rate).

 

For the year 2014 they had around 22 lines....

http://deadline.com/2015/03/transformers-age-of-extinction-profit-box-office-2014-1201391233/

 

Home ent breakdown, ppv/vod- pay/network /syndication/foreign TV went away, merchandise, pre-sales, releasing cost breakdown and so on.

 

I imagine they saw over the year people purely wanted a ranking, a number, the tops one and didn't care at all if they were true or not.

 

Would have been nice to have a SVOD (or pay tv) now to have an idea of deadline estimate. about what the netflix/amazon and co. size of the revenus pi, according to the sony leak it did look to be around $14m for 42 months of the US netflix rights for the 100m+ type studio movies, wonder what it would look like today, 3-4 year's later and worldwide.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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With Wonder Woman getting in, it look like 12th biggest movie of all time, 1.236b on a rumored 250M Fate of the Furious will miss the top 10 ? (Bit of curious about their number, it made around 465m in rental alone) or maybe something else.... regardless a big surprise for any of the those listed above to be below Get Out.

 

http://deadline.com/tag/movie-profits/

 

6 - Wonder Woman

7 - Home Coming

8 - Thor

9 - Guardian 2

10-Get Out

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It is number 5. http://deadline.com/2018/03/it-stephen-king-box-office-movie-profits-1202351455/

 

I was correct, they spent the same amount of money on advertising as any other tentpole. (155M marketing budget)

On 3/20/2018 at 5:09 PM, Treetanic said:

a low production budget doesn't mean they cheaped out on marketing, I imagine it had similar marketing budget to other big movies.

 

On 3/21/2018 at 10:01 PM, Barnack said:

Hum with homecoming at #7, one of those seven should normally not make it:

 

Beauty

Despicable me 3

Jumanji

It

Star wars

------

Fast and furious

Wonder Woman

 

FF ?

probably Fast and Furious misses because of how much % is made up by China. one third of its box office was China.

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