Winter Game | Scoring is done! | The winner is announced (see the thread) - congrats to all! and please no dummy spits (@ zeesoh!!!!)

[Wrath]

On 2/13/2019 at 6:48 AM, chasmmi said:

 

I would also say that all of the top 14 still have a shot of top 3 / winning with a strong preseason and SOTMs. 

Having just updated the DOM, OW, and WW lists, I think I can safely say that I am personally extremely unlikely to be in the top 3. 

 

Which is fine, because I'm not shooting for top 3. I'm shooting for 4th, 6th, 8th or 9th as a stepping stone towards true glory.

[PanaMovie]

On 2/13/2019 at 6:06 AM, JJ-8 said:

In a return to form, @BobDole took the win convingly from yours truly in second (finally!) .  @PanaMovie and @Sheikh tied it up in third.

#	Player	Part A	Bonus	Part B	Part C	Total
1	Bobdole	39000	16000	1000	25000	81000
2	JJ-8	39000	16000	0	18000	73000
3	Panamovie	37000	16000	4000	10000	67000
4	Sheikh	36000	12000	9000	10000	67000
5	ZeeSoh	38000	16000	3000	4000	61000
6	Wrath	35000	12000	0	10000	57000
7	WrathofHan	31000	8000	8000	10000	57000
8	glassfairy	33000	12000	0	10000	55000
9	kayumanggi	30000	8000	4000	10000	52000
10	chasmmi	35000	12000	0	4000	51000
11	Fancyarcher	35000	12000	0	4000	51000
12	Simionski	30000	8000	2000	10000	50000
13	bcf26	32000	8000	2000	4000	46000
14	Mike Hunt	32000	8000	0	4000	44000

 

This week had little to no impact on the charts with only a couple of position changes......  Overall it's Sheikh who continues with his stranglehold on the top spot though bobdole is lurking ..... 

TW	LW	Player	Week 14	Week 15	Total
1	1	Sheikh	80,000	67,000	1,181,000
2	2	BobDole	42,000	81,000	1,106,000
3	3	Simionski	79,000	50,000	1,048,000
4	5	kayumanggi	92,000	52,000	1,046,000
5	4	Chasmmi	54,000	51,000	1,045,000
6	6	PanaMovie	56,000	67,000	1,028,000
7	7	ZeeSoh		61,000	975,000
8	8	glassfairy	47,000	55,000	931,000
9	10	JJ-8	46,000	73,000	899,000
10	9	WrathofHan	59,000	57,000	898,000
11	12	Wrath	52,000	57,000	845,000
12	11	bcf26	60,000	46,000	834,000
13	13	Mike Hunt	47,000	44,000	776,000
14	14	Fancyarcher	60,000	51,000	747,000
15	15	aabattery			155,000
16	16	Premium George			44,000
17	17	Kalo			0
18	18	PANDA			0
19	19	Telemachos			0

 

I'm curious to know why you think I'm going to win. Thanks anyway hahah

 

 

[chasmmi]

The final weekend of stuff approaches, and we have weeklies, make ups, SOTMs and even Make up SOTMs!!

 

 

This is also the point where I ask people to refrain from posting what they make have scored, or mentioning that player x has aced preseason and has probably won etc as it ruins the suspense when we do the official countdown towards my victory.  

 

 

[Wrath]

SotM 7 scoring

 

Ok, technically the final weekend hasn't happened yet, but with the power of analysis and projection we can overlook such trivialities. Conveniently, everyone who answered this SotM predicted HTTYD3 would win Wk17, and then picked either Lego 2 or Alita to come in second. This scoring assumes HTTYD3 wins (not a big stretch) and Alita comes in 2nd (a modest stretch, but not unreasonable). If Lego 2 ends up coming in 2nd instead I'll fix the numbers.

 

	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
1	Upside	Glass	Glass	Glass	Lego 2	Alita	HTTYD3
2	Aquaman	Upside	Upside	Upside	Men Want	Lego 2	Alita
3	Dog's Home	Aquaman	Aquaman	Bala	Cold Pursuit	Romantic	Lego 2
4	Spidey	DB:Broley	Kid King	Aquaman	Upside	Men Want
5	Escape Room	Spidey	Spidey	Spidey	Glass	Death Day

 

Sorry for the awful formatting, but this tells you how each week turned out (except wk 17, which is my assumption of how it turns out). Based on this, scoring goes:

 

These numbers were wrong. Use BobDole's below.

 

Biggest swing for most folks was Wk16 where pretty everyone picked either Alita or Happy Death Day 2U as their #2 finisher. Alita was actually #1 so that was worth 3k. But Death Day was #5 so if you picked that it was -12k. Special props to glassfairy for being the only person to get Wk11 (the first and thus presumably easiest week) exactly right.

Edited February 22, 2019 by Wrath

[BobDole]

One of us messed up their math

(I'm 1k short of Sheikh in your scoring despite having the same picks...granted given how often I've come up short at the last minute lately that would be par for the course)

Edited February 23, 2019 by BobDole

[Wrath]

Hmm, yeah, it does look like you and Sheikh should have the same score. I'll double check my spreadsheet tomorrow. I do note that getting the 2nd place movie correct is only worth 8k, not 15k, so that'd pull down your totals a bit.

[BobDole]

I added 15 for when players got both 1st & 2nd correct so they'd get the 25k points. That still wouldn't explain why we're 5k off for each player though...eh who knows

[Wrath]

Hah. I figured it out. I had a typo and also forgot you got 25k for getting both right rather than 15k. In a nutshell, you're right and I'm wrong. 

 

Onto the next one!

[Wrath]

Ugh. Can *almost* score SotM 8, but not quite. Barring something weird (specifically, this weekend: Aquaman outearning Spidey-verse by about $1.9M or Glass somehow increasing) everything's position is set except for Lego and Upside (Lego will *probably* be 6th and Upside will *probably* be 7th, but only like 60% confident in that. Also, if Lego  posts a ~20% drop this weekend that'll mess other things up). If no one had happened to include both of those movies on their list, we could score it now. But glassfairy and Chasmmi included those two, so we cannot.

 

Still can't score any other SotMs.

Edited February 22, 2019 by Wrath

[chasmmi]

SOTM 3 Table (anything not listed is minus 25k)

 

Film	Gross	Nom	Win	Act/Dir Nom	Act/Dir Win	Multi	Total
Bohemian Rhapsody	213.15	5	4	2	1	x24	5,124
The Favourite	32.12	10	1	5	1	x80	2,569
Green Book	69.75	5	3	3	2	x36	2,511
Vice	47.25	8	1	5	0	x30	1,471
Spiderverse	185	1	1	0	0	x2	370
Mary Poppins	170.95	4	0	0	0	x2	341.9
Beale Street	14.47	3	1	1	1	x16	231.52
Ralph	199.92	1	0	0	0	x1	199.92
Cold War	4.13	3	0	1	0	x4	16.52
Mary Queen of Scots	16.47	2	0	0	0	x1	16.47
Eternity's Gate	2.29	1	0	1	0	x2	4.58
Mirai	0.813	1	0	0	0	x1	0.813
Never Look Away	0.484	2	0	0	0	x1	0.484

 

 

Sheikh  240k

BobDole  240k

WrathofHan 225k

AABattery 225k

FancyArcher  135k

Wrath 130k

Zeesoh   130k

Simionski  120k

kayumanggi  120k

JJ-8   60k

Panamovie 50k

bcf26    45k

glassfairy 35k

chasmmi  Minus 35k

Mike Hunt  Minus 50k

 

[chasmmi]

SOTM 6 perfect Pyramid

 

12 Days of Deadpool Total box office  6.1M

Glass's domestic total after 7 days    54.54M

Mary Poppins UK total in dollars  55.5M

Mary Poppins combined total just for domestic Saturday and Sunday grosses, no weekdays. 60.5M
 

Aquaman OW total   67.87M

The Grinch's December total   76.58M

$80M   

$100M - Arctic Dogs' domestic total    100M

 

How to Train Your Dragon's OW doubled.   111M ish

Escape Room's WW total   118.62M

Bumblebee's China total  169.21M

Into the Spiderverse domestic total  185M

 

 

BobDole  48k

BCF26   48k

 

FancyArcher  25k

Sheikh  15k

Wrath  13k

Simionski  13k

 

MikeHunt  9k

Chasmmi  7k

Wrathofhan  7k

Kayumanggi  1k

 

Glassfairy   Minus 5k

PanaMovie  Minus 14k

JJ-8    Minus 47k

ZeeSoh   Minus 48k

[chasmmi]

That Leaves SOTMs 1, 5, 8, 9, 10, and 11 left to mark. 

 

 

[Wrath]

Wow. Its still hard to score the remaining SotMs.

[chasmmi]

SOTM5 results

 

Mary Poppins  34k    Aqua  66k    Lego   16k    Glass   21k

Bumble  25k       Dragon   12k   Spiderverse   37k*   Mule   20k

Death Day   4k   Escape    11k   Dog's Way  8k   Alita   12k

Deadpool  1k   Serenity  1k  jacob  0k   Holmes   6k

Upside  20k*   Vice  9k  What Men  9k   Mortal  3k  Hannah  2k

 

ZeeSoh  21+25+37*+8+11+9.5 = 111.5k = 112k

Fancyarcher  21+25+37*+4+8+9.5 = 104.5k = 105k

Wrath  21+25+37*+12+8 = 103k

Panamovie  66+18.5+9+8+1=103k

 

glassfairy  66+6+19+11 = 102k

Wrathofhan  21+25+37*+4+11+4 =  102k

Simionski  25+37*+6+9+12+11 = 100k

Kayumanggi  66+25+8 =99k

 

Sheikh  21+25+37*+4+8+1 =96k

chasmmi  21+25+37*+.5+6+.5+0=90k

bcf26  66+21 = 87k
Mike Hunt  17+6+37*+9.5 = 69.5k = 70k

 

BobDole  3+37*+16+6+4= 66k

JJ-8   21+12.5+1.5+12+8+1+1=57k

 

 

Edited for Upside and Dragon actuals...

  

[chasmmi]

Here are 8 values (kind of):

 

1. The combined 3 day OW of Alita, Happy Death Day 2, and Isn't It Romantic   $52.2M

2. Double the OW of Alita, plus Lego Movie 2's Second weekend total  $77.8M

3. Isn't It Romantic's Opening Saturday gross multiplied by 9  $52.9M

4. Double Happy Death Day's domestic Total by the end of its opening Monday  $29.4M

 

5. How To Train Your Dragon 3's final Gross at the end of the game   Low 60s

6. What Men Want's final gross at the end of Game   $45.5ish

7. Aquaman's weekend gross for the weekend of February 15th-17th multiplied by 30  $55.5M

8. Lego Movie's 2nd weekend gross multiplied by 3  $62.4M oh you have got to be kidding me that's like exactly where Dragon's total may fall... 

[chasmmi]

Ok let's try SOTM 8...

 

Mary Poppins   $175M    4M

Aquaman    $325M      8M

Spiderverse $175M    10M

Bohemian Rhapsody   $200M    13M

 

Bumblebee  $150M    23M

The Upside  $60M   39.7M

Lego Movie  $125M    41.7M (Not going to make 2M more than Upside on Monday)

Glass   $150M     42M

WrathofHan  40k

Glassfairy  40k 

Zeesoh  15k

Simionski    10k

 

Wrath   Minus 1k

Panamovie  Minus 2k

BobDole  Minus 2k

Chasmmi  Minus 2k

 

Sheikh   Minus 8k

FancyArcher  Minus 21k

Kayumanggi  Minus 21k 

J-8   Minus 40k

 

 

 

[chasmmi]

OK, I don't have the set up right now to give SOTM1 a try anytime today. 

 

SOTM 9 still relies on Monday Numbers

 SOTM 10 has Dragon's Monday to contend with

SOTM 11  I'll let the weeklies scoring get done first with that. 

 

But yeah I think everything else is done. 

[chasmmi]

Ok, SOTM 10 now looks tackleable. 

 

I'll give it a whirl after dinner and then see what we are looking like for SOTM 1 

[chasmmi]

Ok we can probably do this now if Dragon is making around 2.5-3M for Monday.  

1. Double the OW of Alita, plus Lego Movie 2's Second weekend total  $77.8M

2. Lego Movie's 2nd weekend gross multiplied by 3  $62.4M 

3. How To Train Your Dragon 3's final Gross at the end of the game   About 60M

4. Aquaman's weekend gross for the weekend of February 15th-17th multiplied by 30  $55.5M

 

5. Isn't It Romantic's Opening Saturday gross multiplied by 9  $52.9M

6. The combined 3 day OW of Alita, Happy Death Day 2, and Isn't It Romantic   $52.2M

7. What Men Want's final gross at the end of Game   $45.5ish

8. Double Happy Death Day's domestic Total by the end of its opening Monday  $29.4M

 

 

JJ-8   126k

Sheikh   106k

chasmmi  94k

Zeesoh  94k

 

BobDole  64k

Glassfairy  64k

Panamovie   50k

Simionski   38k

 

Wrath 3k

bcf26   3k

FancyArcher   3k

Kayumanggi  3k

Mike Hunt   Minus 70k

 

 

 

 

[chasmmi]

Ok Let's give this one a whirl... It make me every so slightly off before actuals...

 

Under $100M Scoring:

 

98-100M  - 75,000 points

95-98M  - 50,000 points

90-95M  - 25,000 points

85-90M  - 0 points

 

84-85M - Minus 1,000 points, then minus another 1,000 points for every subsequent million too low.

 

Over $100M Scoring:

 

100-102M  - 60,000 points

102-105M  - 40,000 points

105-110M  - 20,000 points

110-115M  - 0 points

 

115-116M - Minus 2,000 points, then minus another 2,000 points for every subsequent million too high.

 

DeathDay  21.8M    Dragon  60M     Glass  28.9M      Miss Bala  14.65M   Upside  33.15  Dog's 8.8M   WMW  45.5M         Aqua 14.24M     Spider 14.13M    Fave          5.06M      BoRap   6.42M  Vice 

 

BobDole    40k  (104.07M)

chasmmi   25k  (90.6)

FancyArcher   0 (110.7M)

 

Wrath  minus 3k

WrathofHan  Minus 3k

Panamovie Minus 3k

Kayumanggi Minus 3k

 

Mike Hunt  Minus 3k  (81.8M)

bcf26  Minus 3k  (81.8M)

JJ-8  Minus 3k  (81.8M)

 

Sheikh  Minus 14k   (122.05M - so def double check this with actuals)

Glassfairy  Minus 18k   (67.3M)

Simionski   Minus  19k  (65.35M) 

 

Minus 10k if the name is not above