Xillix Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 To be clear; I'm certainly not saying it makes no sense that Ody3 will open higher than the second (though $200 million is pushing it pretty hard IMO). Just that I don't believe it will. It's also worth noting we all have our biases and I am not as in love with the movie as the rest of y'all (I did call it the weakest in the trilogy, which I also stand by). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xillix Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 (edited) For reference, even going just by beloved fantasy trilogies without either the rating increase or relative lack of spectacle working against it, the OW bump from The Two Towers to Return of the King was 12.9%. That'd put Homecoming at $182 million. Edited October 17, 2018 by Xillix 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 July 3-5th (Independence Day Weekend) It’s one of the biggest movie going weekends ever as Americans celebrate Independence Day. The top dog at 60 on Metacritic, should easily be Jaws: The Return tracking at $65M-$85M, but our analysts are thinking $100M can happen too. Infinite’s Hoops is tracking decently at $8M-$12M like most basketball movies. Jaws: The Return: $100M/$275M (x2.75) (We think the 4th Of July holiday will only help inflate the OW along with nostalgia and audiences should flock but I don’t think it’ll have too much longevity) Hoops: $10M/$23M (x2.33) July 10th-12th: Hourglass’ The Doppleganger is looking weak at a $12M-$15M weekend but Hot Shot’s I Am Omega: Part 1 is looking decent at $28M-$32M thanks to lack of horror films but will also hurt due to the July Action overload. The Doppleganger: $15M/$40M (x2.66) (Doubt this will do to well to be honest due to the amount of action films) I Am Omega: Part 1: $30M/$75M (x2.5) (lack of horror movies will help the OW but the action movies later will hurt legs not to mention meh reviews) July 17th-19th This is going to be a huge weekend in July where two tentpoles are neck and neck. Both Endless’ God of War: Retribution and Blankments/EssGeeKay’s hyped sequel The Princess Diaries 3: The Royal Engagement are both looking at $45M-$55M. Reviews aren’t up for the former but negative to mixed reviews are expected, and the latter starts at 63 on Metacritic. God of War: Retribution: $50M/$130M (x2.61) (The sequel is still of a hyped video game and some may be drawn to the fun action spectacle) The Princess Diaries 3: The Royal Engagement: $45M/$130M (x2.88) (The rating shift will alienate some families but we expect nostalgia to help it) July 24th-July 26th With a 82 on Metacritic, hyped animated sequel Hollywood Animation’s Amulet II: The Last Council is tracking at a very strong $90M-$105M, thanks to lack of big animated movies as well as family films. Amulet II: The Last Council: $100M/$325M (x3.25) (I expect this to be big but question if the longer runtime may alienate some kids which can hurt) July 31st-August 2nd Gold Cresent’s ThunderCats is looking weak at a meager $24M-$28M thanks to meh reviews and action overload. ThunderCats: $26M/$75M (x2.88) (Should is about the same as Extreme Dinosaurs) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 18 hours ago, Xillix said: High School Musical 4: Reunion - $30.2m OW / $69.1m Dom (The idea that this greatest hits flick targeted only at 20-somethings who still care enough to show up could make more than or even as much as the series' theatrical debut at the height of its fad status frankly strikes me as ludicrous) seems silly to me. I'm not making many predicts but IMO the addition of Jackman (who will be in Odyssey at the same time so expect a lot of overlap on a press tour) and Miranda should offset this greatly. Moreover, kids today still watch High School Musical; you'd be surprised how many kids from my job know the songs (and love them!). I'm not saying it'll be huge but I feel fairly confident in 100M+ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Blankments said: seems silly to me. I'm not making many predicts but IMO the addition of Jackman (who will be in Odyssey at the same time so expect a lot of overlap on a press tour) and Miranda should offset this greatly. Moreover, kids today still watch High School Musical; you'd be surprised how many kids from my job know the songs (and love them!). I'm not saying it'll be huge but I feel fairly confident in 100M+ Not to mention, the money hook sneak preview to Can You Imagine? will only help exposure. If Kim Possible and Miraculous which I'm going to guess will be around the same review wise got over $100M domestic, I don't understand why this would miss it especially with summer days, but I easily get the frontloadness aspect. Edited October 18, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 17 hours ago, Xillix said: For reference, even going just by beloved fantasy trilogies without either the rating increase or relative lack of spectacle working against it, the OW bump from The Two Towers to Return of the King was 12.9%. That'd put Homecoming at $182 million. I think that would be a good opening number actually. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sears Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 (edited) “Hourglass’ The Doppleganger is looking weak at a $12M-$15M weekend but Hot Shot’s I Am Omega: Part 1 is looking decent at $28M-$32M thanks to lack of horror films but will also hurt due to the July Action overload.” What do you think of OS potential I probably need at least 200 million overseas if your prediction ends up right @YourMother the Edgelord Edited October 18, 2018 by Sears 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Sears said: “Hourglass’ The Doppleganger is looking weak at a $12M-$15M weekend but Hot Shot’s I Am Omega: Part 1 is looking decent at $28M-$32M thanks to lack of horror films but will also hurt due to the July Action overload.” What do you think of OS potential I probably need at least 200 million overseas if your prediction ends up right @YourMother the Edgelord I don’t predict OS but I think the best comparison is probably The Mummy, I can see it doing well OS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 I'll have first half reviews done by Sunday night - would that be good enough to start actuals on Monday? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xillix Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just now, Spagheditary said: I'll have first half reviews done by Sunday night - would that be good enough to start actuals on Monday? I don't see why not, if you're up to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Spagheditary said: I'll have first half reviews done by Sunday night - would that be good enough to start actuals on Monday? Sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddroast Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Spagheditary said: I'll have first half reviews done by Sunday night - would that be good enough to start actuals on Monday? Awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Xillix said: I don't see why not, if you're up to it. So here's my life. I'm traveling to LA for work from October 30 to November 5. Before I leave, I'd like to complete... My top 25 January through June actuals (I can probably do one per day) Beginning the CC thread Ideally totals by November 12. That way, we could be primed for an Oscar ceremony around late November. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddroast Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, Spagheditary said: So here's my life. I'm traveling to LA for work from October 30 to November 5. Before I leave, I'd like to complete... My top 25 January through June actuals (I can probably do one per day) Beginning the CC thread Ideally totals by November 12. That way, we could be primed for an Oscar ceremony around late November. Have a good time in La 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xillix Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 July Hoops - $6.2m OW / $17.5m Dom Jaws: The Return - $65.5m OW / $164.6m Dom The Doppelganger - $29.5m OW / $103.5m Dom I Am Omega: Part One - $11.5m OW / $17.3m Dom God of War: Retribution - $46.8m OW / $113.6m Dom The Princess Diaries 3: The Heir Apparent - $14.8m OW / $33.3m Dom Amulet II: The Last Council - $57.5m OW / $194.3m Dom ThunderCats - $34.3m OW / $78.9m Dom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 3 hours ago, Spagheditary said: So here's my life. I'm traveling to LA for work from October 30 to November 5. Before I leave, I'd like to complete... My top 25 January through June actuals (I can probably do one per day) Beginning the CC thread Ideally totals by November 12. That way, we could be primed for an Oscar ceremony around late November. I’d like to have the Oscar ceremony ideally be dated between the 17th and the 25th since that’ll be my time for Thanksgiving break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Doing some preliminary numbers...expect a good number of weekends with sub 1m films. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cookie Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Spagheditary said: Doing some preliminary numbers...expect a good number of weekends with sub 1m films. That's basically what I had to deal with 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reddroast Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Spagheditary said: Doing some preliminary numbers...expect a good number of weekends with sub 1m films. Are these opening weekends Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xillix Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Reddroast said: Are these opening weekends Nah, they probably mean movies still in the top ten that made under $1m that weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
