Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 | July 12 2023 | 99% on Rotten Tomatoes! | 290M budget so far, Cruise holding Paramount hostage for more money

[Bob Train]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Pretty sure TGM's tracking wasn't underwhelming. Pointed to high numbers from the start

Top Gun didn't have weak tracking but the OW was definitely underestimated. Most people thought 100m 3-day or so and 125m 4-day, but it massively exceeded both.

Ghost Protocol and Fallout also beat their OW tracking by a fair ammount

[The Dark Alfred]

As mentioned before it is volatile to follow tracking with a 5-day opening that have previews. Besides the tracking for MI so far seemed good. Can't wait for that awesome OD number to drop. 

Edited June 28, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[ThomasNicole]

 

[Algebra]

12 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I still don't understand how everyone is saying this is going to do gangbusters when presales are lacking and Oppenheimer/Barbie come out a week later.

Especially when the social media buzz isn't 100% positive.

What's with the expectation that every potential blockbuster has to to have a 100% positive reaction? 

 

Barbie & Oppenheimer combined will not do above a $1B worldwide even in the most optimistic scenario and Barbie specially will be incredibly frontloaded. Why can't MI7 play on alongside them into a weak August slate?

[emoviefan]

22 minutes ago, Algebra said:

What's with the expectation that every potential blockbuster has to to have a 100% positive reaction? 

 

Barbie & Oppenheimer combined will not do above a $1B worldwide even in the most optimistic scenario and Barbie specially will be incredibly frontloaded. Why can't MI7 play on alongside them into a weak August slate?

It would be better for the health of the industry if they all did well and I hope that is what happens. 

[Algebra]

5 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

It would be better for the health of the industry if they all did well and I hope that is what happens. 

Yes, after a bunch of disappointments, we need a few positive surprises

[Claudio]

Release date moved up 4 days here in Indonesia.  
Original date: 12 July (Wednesday, traditional release day for import film) 

New date: 8 July (Saturday, not just previews but full opening day)

Probably the first time ever for a tent pole to opening on Saturday here.

 

TOM CRUISEEEE

HIS POWAHHH

 

[Borobudur]

2 minutes ago, Claudio said:

Release date moved up 4 days here in Indonesia.  
Original date: 12 July (Wednesday, traditional release day for import film) 

New date: 8 July (Saturday, not just previews but full opening day)

Probably the first time ever for a tent pole to opening on Saturday here.

 

TOM CRUISEEEE

HIS POWAHHH

 

Always funny to see MI7 see Indy 5 as bigger competitor, only to realise two relatively unproven underdogs Barbie and Oppenheimier are the bigger deal. 

[Claudio]

8 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Always funny to see MI7 see Indy 5 as bigger competitor, only to realise two relatively unproven underdogs Barbie and Oppenheimier are the bigger deal. 

Actually with the new date, MI7 will be closer to Indy than Barbie/Oppenheimer. Just 10 days space from Indy opening which is yesterday 28 June (the old date is 14 days space). On the other hand, MI7 is distancing itself from both Barbie/Oppenheimer which is scheduled on 19 July (was only a week space, now 11 days space).

[ShadowWeegee]

That was the point I think. They’ve realized that Indy isn’t nearly as much of a threat as the combo of Barbie and Oppenheimer is seemingly turning out to be. Who could have predicted that there’s a legitimate possibility that those two combine for an OW close to triple that of Indy at this point. 

[ThomasNicole]

Opening here in Brazil also on July 8 for some reason but thanks Cruise I’ll be there first

[The Dark Alfred]

All points to franchise best OD, OW, domestic and WW tally. This mission will be accepted.

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

All points to franchise best OD, OW, domestic and WW tally. This mission will be accepted.

WW it should be the biggest opening. Domestic those ticket  sales need to increase and keep increasing. Fingers crossed they do. 

[The Dark Alfred]

I mean it looks like Indy with bad press and mixed reviews are going to open higher than FALLOUT, so don't see DR failing there. I actually can't see it missing 100m 5-day.

 

I was just randomly browsing other countries big cinema chains and it seems that lots of European countries now doing previews on the 8th. Must admit pre-sales for regular screens not great, in IMAX and 4-Dbox very good. Either way those are all bonus screenings adding to the OD. Suppose same things are happening in the US, so it's going to be interesting to see what that all amounts to.

 

Pre-sales are ahead of JOHN WICK 4. That opened to $29.4m including $8.9m previews. So expecting a $30m OD (incl. all the previews) is actually a conservative prediction. So the floor to me is 30m OD, 15m Thu, 60m weekend, 105m 5-day. I can't see a scenario where it falls below that.

Edited June 29, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Maggie]

20 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

Pre-sales are ahead of JOHN WICK 4. That opened to $29.4m including $8.9m previews. So expecting a $30m OD (incl. all the previews) is actually a conservative prediction. So the floor to me is 30m OD, 15m Thu, 60m weekend, 105m 5-day. I can't see a scenario where it falls below that.

@katnisscinnaplex has it tracking  below JW4

[The Dark Alfred]

BoxofficePro latest tracking has it 65-75m 3-day OW and 250m domestic total as a floor. Sounds good to me.

[Bob Train]

Was Jurassic World Dominion the last tentpole to open early in international territories?

[Bob Train]

Making consistently good movies pays off. Tom Cruise and Paramount will reap the benefits of this in a few weeks.

 

If only all of Hollywood knew this. Then maybe we wouldn't have so many dumpster fire cinematic universes like Dark universe or DCEU.

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Making consistently good movies pays off. Tom Cruise and Paramount will reap the benefits of this in a few weeks.

 

If only all of Hollywood knew this. Then maybe we wouldn't have so many dumpster fire cinematic universes like Dark universe or DCEU.

Cruise's run since 2011's been nothing short of consistently great big budget movies. Missions 4-6, Edge of Tomorrow and Top Gun Maverick are easily some of the best action movies of the century so far, and his only real stumble was The Mummy (still don't know why he'd say yes to working with Kurtzman lol)