Fake Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 (edited) Alice? Like I said earlier... the two years gap basically screws up any drops comparison which involves Tuesday gross (due to the difference in discount Tuesday popularity. Now let me make this clear by doing an 'apple to apple' comparison between NM and BD1. For NM, The Tuesday/Wednesday jumps were: New Moon: +7.8% / +25.3% Breaking Dawn 1 jumped +11.7% on its first Tuesday. Now that is 4% bigger than NM's and looks a better jump (much like THG looks better than Alice). But look what happened on Wednesday. BD1 jumped only +13%, about 12% worse than NM. So it is perfectly logical and likely that THG would experience a worse Wednesday drop of a similar magnitude compared to Alice. Alice dropped 15%. THG should drop around 25% or more. Edited March 28, 2012 by Fake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Last night for THG IMAX right? Wednesday might actually turn into a bump, but I suspect a better drop regardless.Are you saying that Wednesday will possibly increase for THG?That is about as impossible as an elephant being tied with his tail to a dandelion while hanging over a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Nothing wrong with this number. Bested SM3 Tuesday by 2.2m. Granted SM3 didn't have discount Tuesday as much as THG but SM3 still fell 16.5% on Wednesday as well and another 12% on Thursday. People thinking that THG will have trouble beating SM3 this weekend are going to be surprised. It's already showed it is more stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Han Cobb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Are you saying that Wednesday will possibly increase for THG?That is about as impossible as an elephant being tied with his tail to a dandelion while hanging over a cliff.So you're saying there's a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Nothing wrong with this number. Bested SM3 Tuesday by 2.2m. Granted SM3 didn't have discount Tuesday as much as THG but SM3 still fell 16.5% on Wednesday as well and another 12% on Thursday. People thinking that THG will have trouble beating SM3 this weekend are going to be surprised. It's already showed it is more stable.No one is doubting that the WOM will be better for THG but Spiderman's drop was all WOM and a 61% drop in 2007 was a big dropo, it wasn't as common back then as it is now. THG has more of a rush factor to it, I believe and I think that will cause it to fall more than 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 21 Jump Street: $2,203,242 (+15%)The Lorax: $1,120,600 (+11%)John Carter: $512,303 (+21%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Needle Nose Ned Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Are you saying that Wednesday will possibly increase for THG?That is about as impossible as an elephant being tied with his tail to a dandelion while hanging over a cliff.Of course I don't think it's likely, but it's not that often such a popular movie is out of its IMAX run on the Wednesday after it opens. Just saying I think Wednesday dailies will surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Losing IMAX on Wednesday? Why? WoTT opens on Friday, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiccup Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 It is staying in IMAX by me until Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Needle Nose Ned Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I thought Games had to bow out by tomorrow. Never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Wednesday drop will be 20-25% I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 No one is doubting that the WOM will be better for THG but Spiderman's drop was all WOM and a 61% drop in 2007 was a big dropo, it wasn't as common back then as it is now. THG has more of a rush factor to it, I believe and I think that will cause it to fall more than 60%.I'm not talking about WOM either, I'm talking about the $$, that's it. THG Tuesday is 2.2m higher than SM3's Tuesday when SM3's Sunday was 5m higher than THG's Sunday. Seems like SM3 is already lagging behind quite considerably. And a 61% drop in 2007 was no different than a 61% drop in 2012. Take out the Twilight films and nothing has changed since 2007 in terms of blockbuster frontloading.I just don't see how you think 350m is doubtful after 2 perfectly fine weekdays. It's March and we all know films make the bulk of the cash on their weekends. Do you have some prejudice against the film? It seems pretty apparent in your posts you're kinda rooting for it to fall short of our expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Of course I don't think it's likely, but it's not that often such a popular movie is out of its IMAX run on the Wednesday after it opens. Just saying I think Wednesday dailies will surprise.It loses IMAX on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'm not talking about WOM either, I'm talking about the $$, that's it. THG Tuesday is 2.2m higher than SM3's Tuesday when SM3's Sunday was 5m higher than THG's Sunday. Seems like SM3 is already lagging behind quite considerably. And a 61% drop in 2007 was no different than a 61% drop in 2012. Take out the Twilight films and nothing has changed since 2007 in terms of blockbuster frontloading.I just don't see how you think 350m is doubtful after 2 perfectly fine weekdays. It's March and we all know films make the bulk of the cash on their weekends. Do you have some prejudice against the film? It seems pretty apparent in your posts you're kinda rooting for it to fall short of our expectations.The weekends won't increase enough to lockc in 350. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 The weekends won't increase enough to lockc in 350.We'll see who's right on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 That sucks THG loose Imaxs on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Really fantastic hold. If it sticks that number is actually larger than any May Tuesday ever. It'll probably fall a lot more today (As much as 20% possibly)' date=' but that's still a good sign for the weekend.[/quote'] BJ likes, and it went up with actuals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 $10,348,198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 (edited) Nothing shocking here. Moving along nicely. People saying it's chances at $400m are "rapidly decreasing" are more than likely in for a nice little shock this weekend. It's March its weekdays in no way reflect what it can pull in on the weekend. A 100%+ increase on Friday isn't even unlikely. Edited March 28, 2012 by MovieMan89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Shorts Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Like I said earlier... the two years gap basically screws up any drops comparison which involves Tuesday gross (due to the difference in discount Tuesday popularity.You're getting too carried away with discount Tuesdays. It's not like they became popular only in 2012, we've been factoring that in for years now. Take a look at AIW http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=aliceinwonderland10.htmYou can see it benefited from Tuesdays as well with the exception of holidays falling on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
