The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Old Spice]

Lightyear went into hyper drive this afternoon at my theater with now 132 tix sold for today, almost double yesterday's figure.

 

155% of Sonic ($9.78)

151% of Ghostbusters ($6.82)

200% of Lost City ($6.50)

159% of Uncharted ($5.88)

 

I'll say $7.8M for true Thursday. LY also looking strong this weekend. Current pre-sales:

 

Friday

(1) Lightyear- 167

(2) Dominion- 91

(3) Maverick-57

 

Saturday

(1) Lightyear- 149

(2) Dominion- 64

(3) Maverick- 59

 

Father's Day

(1) Maverick- 85

(2) Lightyear- 51

(3) Dominion- 47

 

[keysersoze123]

Dont forget only PLF/IMax shows for early shows yesterday. I am sure families will prefer regular 2d shows. walkups today will tell the tale for sure. 

[Tinalera]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dont forget only PLF/IMax shows for early shows yesterday. I am sure families will prefer regular 2d shows. walkups today will tell the tale for sure. 

You reminded me of that, that I noted when doing my counts. There seemed to be be more people (prolly families) who were booking the non Imax films like regular 2d. I remember it striking me a tiny bit curious because generally its the big screens that get most sales in mine with 2d being kind of a "last resort" for buyers, but this was one was opposite-was interesting.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Wednesday(2 showings): 253(+4)/470

T-1 Thursday(206 showings): 3978(+704)/26038

Total Previews(208 showings): 4231(+708)/26508

6.15x Encanto T-1 (9.22M)

0.963x Ghostbusters T-1 (4.33M)

 

T-2 Friday(303 showings): 4825(+1060)/37526

1.00x Ghostbusters T-2 (12.20M)

 

T-3 Saturday(330 showings): 4025(+720)/40091

0.820x Ghostbusters T-3 (13.48M)

 

T-4 Sunday(276 showings): 3240(+884)/35925

1.37x Ghostbusters T-4 (14.93M)

Lightyear Alamo Drafthouse

 

Final Wednesday(2 showings): 253/470

T-0 Thursday(206 showings): 6264(+2286)/26038

Total Previews(208 showings): 6517(+2286)/26508

3.66x Encanto T-0 (5.49M)

1.31x Ghostbusters T-0 (5.90M)

 

T-1 Friday(311 showings): 6249(+1424)/37706

1.04x Ghostbusters T-1 (12.68M)

 

T-2 Saturday(335 showings): 4943(+918)/39670

0.857x Ghostbusters T-2 (14.08M)

 

T-3 Sunday(290 showings): 4090(+850)/36040

1.45x Ghostbusters T-3 (15.83M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Megaplex

 

T-0 Wednesday(4 showings): 492(+129)/2146

T-1 Thursday(134 showings): 1001(+241)/29696

Total Previews(138 showings): 1493(+370)/31842

4.09x Encanto T-1 (6.14M)

1.07x Ghostbusters T-1 (4.80M)

3.45x Free Guy T-1 (7.59M)

 

T-2 Friday(290 showings): 1732(+461)/66239

1.09x Ghostbusters T-2 (13.24M)

 

T-3 Saturday(294 showings): 1446(+392)/65722

1.05x Ghostbusters T-3 (17.17M)

 

T-4 Sunday(282 showings): 382(+111)/65514

1.27x Ghostbusters T-4 (13.90M)

Lightyear Megaplex

 

Final Wednesday(4 showings): 492/2146

T-0 Thursday(135 showings): 1896(+895)/29817

Total Previews(139 showings): 2388(+895)/31963

1.83x Encanto T-0 (2.74M)

1.12x Ghostbusters T-0 (5.06M)

2.01x Free Guy T-0 (4.43M)

1.41x Jungle Cruise T-0 (3.80M)

 

T-1 Friday(290 showings): 2404(+672)/66239

1.10x Ghostbusters T-1 (13.35M)

 

T-2 Saturday(294 showings): 1816(+370)/65722

1.07x Ghostbusters T-2 (17.66M)

 

T-3 Sunday(282 showings): 550(+168)/65514

1.25x Ghostbusters T-3 (13.62M)

[Eric the Minion]

16 hours ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Lightyear Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	140	1099	23359	4.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 300

 

Comp

3.511x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (9.48M)

3.557x of Encanto T-1 (5.33M)

0.453x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-1 (2.83M)

Lightyear Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	140	1898	23359	8.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 799

 

Comp

2.409x of Jungle Cruise (6.5M)

2.799x of Encanto (4.2M)

0.561x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (3.51M)

 

People may balk at JC and Encanto's drops, but those were way more walk-up driven. I also don't see it going as low as Sonic 2, so it's in an odd inbetween of movies that I guess will lead to...5.5M? Hopefully 6M, because like sub-60 is embarrassing.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Lightyear Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

198

2085

9.50%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

100

1425

7.02%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
862	204	19625	4.39%	15	156

 

AMCs sold	621
Cinemarks sold	96
Regals sold	60
Harkins sold	85

 

Wednesday

Total

297

123

2111

Overall

Grand Total

1159

327

21736

 

3.97x Encanto T-1 (5.95M)

0.840x Ghostbusters T-1 (3.78M)

2.70x Free Guy T-1 (5.93M)

2.49x Jungle Cruise T-1 (6.73M)

Lightyear Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

321

2085

15.40%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

199

1373

14.49%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1635	773	20056	8.15%	15	158

 

AMCs sold	1010
Cinemarks sold	232
Regals sold	160
Harkins sold	233

 

Wednesday

Total

297

2111

Overall

Grand Total

1932

773

22167

 

2.36x Encanto T-0 (3.54M)

0.957x Ghostbusters T-0 (4.31M)

1.80x Free Guy T-0 (3.97M)

1.85x Jungle Cruise T-0 (5.00M)

 

Something that might be important to note is that all of these comps, besides Ghostbusters, had a Thursday start time of 6PM. With that start time, I think that a lot of the family walkup/same day business will be captured, but a lot of that may be missing with this 3PM start time. I think Drafthouse is kinda showing what I'm talking about with the chain being less dependent on walkups, so the Encanto comp doesn't seem super low like Megaplex and Denver. Plus I didn't get the Wednesday numbers right before start time, so those will make the comps undershoot a little. And of course adjustments upward should be made for all these comps because of ATP, closures, and whatnot. So I'll go with 5.4M for overall previews

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Lightyear	T-0	Jax	6	78	158	484	10,445	4.63%
		Phx	7	77	247	772	11,728	6.58%
		Ral	8	52	141	467	5,180	9.02%
	Total		21	207	542	1,663	27,156	6.12%

 

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Bad Guys - 7.94x (9.13m)

 - Encanto (Tue) - 3.81x (5.72m)

 - Sonic 2 - .983x (4.89m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.56x (6.82m)

 - Free Guy - 3x (6.62m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - .427x (3.56m)

 

It's coming in right at Sonic 2 numbers at the moment, but comps are all over the place. I'll put my early prediction at 5.5m, subject to change when I run my final numbers this afternoon

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Lightyear	1-Hr	Jax	6	78	243	717	10,445	6.86%
		Phx	7	78	173	945	11,709	8.07%
		Ral	8	52	354	821	5,180	15.85%
	Total		21	208	770	2,483	27,334	9.08%

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-1hr comps

 - Bad Guys - 6.69x (7.7m)

 - Encanto (Tue) - 3.51x (5.27m)

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.25x (6.08m)

 - Free Guy - 2.86x (6.29m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - missed

All PG movies - 4.88m

All animated movies - 6.22m

All 3pm previews - 4.94m

All movies - 4.92m

 

I hate that I missed the last Sonic update.  Walkups were pretty good; couldn't keep up with Bad Guys and Encanto with their total sales being much smaller (higher % increase).  My gut tells me to stick with 5.5m, but I feel like it could possibly reach 6m so I'll put my final prediction at 5.8m for true Thursday.  That would mean full previews of ~6.5m.

[XXR & Friends]

True Friday Tracking -- Lightyear -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens) -- Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 

 

Lightyear

379 show times -- 5818 total seats sold -- 2228 PLF seats sold -- 296 3-D seats sold -- 3294 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 38.3% PLF -- 5.1% 3D -- 56.6% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~4650

 

Comps (Adjusted)

Jurassic World: Dominion (0.3644x = $15.16M True Friday)

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (0.9662x = $19.45M True Friday)

The Bad Guys (5.618x = $38.68M True Friday)

 

 

True Friday Estimate: $19M

Full Friday Estimate: $25.5M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $68M 

 

Spoiler

Comments 

I decided that of the comps I have available, Sonic 2 and JWD will be the best. Both have franchise branding but are decidedly less presales heavy than many other franchises. Sonic is likely the better comp directly but JWD is also a summer opening like Lightyear. Sonic and JWD both opened around 3.5x true Friday. Due to Fathers Day Sunday and Juneteenth Monday, I’m thinking Lightyear can pull a 3.6x. I’m modeling $6.5M for previews, which would give it 10.5x for the weekend (TS4 did 10.8x in 2019).

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by ZurgXXR

[crazymoviekid]

Things have not been looking good at my local theaters for Lightyear😬

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/15/2022 at 4:02 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

769

3809

20.19%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

725

4985

14.54%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3470	255	37793	9.18%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	2545
Cinemarks sold	440
Regals sold	260
Harkins sold	225

 

0.633x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (22.80M) [+386]

1.28x Batman Day 2 (27.62M)

0.334x NWH Day 2 (16.70M)

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

810

3809

21.27%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

776

4985

15.57%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3665	195	37793	9.70%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	2656
Cinemarks sold	472
Regals sold	296
Harkins sold	241

 

0.329x NWH Day 3 (16.46M)

 

Unfortunately no Doctor Strange or Batman comps today. But it looks like Thor should be really close to the daily increase of Doctor Strange now. The two day increase was 316 for DS, so Thor needs to sell 121 over the next 24 hours to match that. But even if it doesn't, it'll be really close and looking good.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

810

3809

21.27%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

776

4985

15.57%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3665	195	37793	9.70%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	2656
Cinemarks sold	472
Regals sold	296
Harkins sold	241

 

0.329x NWH Day 3 (16.46M)

 

Unfortunately no Doctor Strange or Batman comps today. But it looks like Thor should be really close to the daily increase of Doctor Strange now. The two day increase was 316 for DS, so Thor needs to sell 121 over the next 24 hours to match that. But even if it doesn't, it'll be really close and looking good.

Can you also add T-x comps. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/15/2022 at 4:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-22 Thursday(190 showings): 3058(+327)/47563

0.565x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (20.33M) [+407]

0.855x Batman Day 2 (18.46M)

0202x NWH Day 2 (10.08M)

 

T-23 Friday(258 showings): 1465(+202)/67683

0.591x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (32.36M) [+253]

1.44x Batman Day 2 (50.52M)

0.149x NWH Day 2 (10.71M)

 

T-24 Saturday(264 showings): 696(+119)/69227

0.569x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (32.87M) [+229]

1.53x Batman Day 2 (65.88M)

0.163x NWH Day 2 (12.05M)

 

T-25 Sunday(253 showings): 191(+15)/68879

0.776x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (30.20M) [+58]

2.65x Batman Day 2 (90.57M)

0.231x NWH Day 2 (14.82M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-21 Thursday(190 showings): 3267(+209)/47563

0.202x NWH Day 3 (10.10M)

 

T-22 Friday(258 showings): 1606(+141)/67683

0.151x NWH Day 3 (10.88M)

 

T-23 Saturday(264 showings): 773(+77)/69227

0.156x NWH Day 3 (11.52M)

 

T-24 Sunday(253 showings): 212(+21)/68879

0.223x NWH Day 3 (14.32M)

[Tinalera]

6 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

True Friday Tracking -- Lightyear -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens) -- Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 

 

Lightyear

379 show times -- 5818 total seats sold -- 2228 PLF seats sold -- 296 3-D seats sold -- 3294 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 38.3% PLF -- 5.1% 3D -- 56.6% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~4650

 

Comps (Adjusted)

Jurassic World: Dominion (0.3644x = $15.16M True Friday)

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (0.9662x = $19.45M True Friday)

The Bad Guys (5.618x = $38.68M True Friday)

 

 

True Friday Estimate: $19M

Full Friday Estimate: $25.5M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $68M 

 

  Hide contents

Comments 

I decided that of the comps I have available, Sonic 2 and JWD will be the best. Both have franchise branding but are decidedly less presales heavy than many other franchises. Sonic is likely the better comp directly but JWD is also a summer opening like Lightyear. Sonic and JWD both opened around 3.5x true Friday. Due to Fathers Day Sunday and Juneteenth Monday, I’m thinking Lightyear can pull a 3.6x. I’m modeling $6.5M for previews, which would give it 10.5x for the weekend (TS4 did 10.8x in 2019).

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

How should I be presenting my percentage? I mean right now by imitation admittedly Im using thex .456 (or whatever). But my old school brain says "well thats .45 percent-or half a percent. to me 1.5 percent would be literally 150 percent, so when Im seeing 4.5 or 6.5 Im thinking "so 600 percent in the comp?" Yet with finangling I do get the multiplier with the opening day to work properly and my numbers work out. The decimal places just confuse my old school brain I think. Maybe it will make more sense when I am not  using JW3 comps for future movies esp kids films lol

 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/15/2022 at 4:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-22 Thursday(158 showings): 9258(+636)/24113 ATP: $15.29

0.726x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (26.12M) [+611]

1.42x Batman Day 2 (25.07M, using Thurs only gross)

0.426x NWH Day 2 (21.30M)

 

T-23 Friday(215 showings): 6524(+557)/32768 ATP: $15.40

0.680x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (37.19M) [+742]

1.08x Batman Day 2 (37.66M)

0.385x NWH Day 2 (27.72M)

 

T-24 Saturday(223 showings): 5840(+670)/34207 ATP: $14.67

0.628x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (36.30M) [+856]

1.18x Batman Day 2 (51.02M)

0.414x NWH Day 2 (30.60M)

 

T-25 Sunday(205 showings): 2771(+268)/31606 ATP: $14.28

0.774x Doctor Strange MoM Day 2 (30.09M) [+503]

1.48x Batman Day 2 (50.56M)

0.485x NWH Day 2 (31.13M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-21 Thursday(158 showings): 9359(+101)/24113 ATP: $15.29

0.410x NWH Day 3 (20.50M)

 

T-22 Friday(215 showings): 6795(+271)/32768 ATP: $15.40

0.366x NWH Day 3 (26.34M)

 

T-23 Saturday(223 showings): 6029(+189)/34207 ATP: $14.67

0.375x NWH Day 3 (27.69M)

 

T-24 Sunday(205 showings): 2864(+93)/31606 ATP: $14.28

0.400x NWH Day 3 (25.65M)

 

Really weak increases here. Hopefully just a fluke

[Inceptionzq]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you also add T-x comps. 

I also didn’t count T-21 for DS

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

True Friday Tracking -- Lightyear -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens) -- Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 I decided that of the comps I have available, Sonic 2 and JWD will be the best. Both have franchise branding but are decidedly less presales heavy than many other franchises. Sonic is likely the better comp directly but JWD is also a summer opening like Lightyear. Sonic and JWD both opened around 3.5x true Friday. Due to Fathers Day Sunday and Juneteenth Monday, I’m thinking Lightyear can pull a 3.6x. I’m modeling $6.5M for previews, which would give it 10.5x for the weekend (TS4 did 10.8x in 2019).

 

 

Hmmm... An interesting point about JWD.  Took a super quick glance and thanks to the EA showings, the PLF ratio is kinda in the right ballpark.  3D is a lot less for LY though, and I reckon it'll sell even more kids tickets than JWD.  Still, by now the differences in pre-sale length = exactly zero, so I've added it to my comps for my final report in about 45 min.

 

Is the highest comp I have, fwiw.  Still something for me to keep in mind as I didn't think the PLF ratio would be remotely close.

[XXR & Friends]

11 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

How should I be presenting my percentage? I mean right now by imitation admittedly Im using thex .456 (or whatever). But my old school brain says "well thats .45 percent-or half a percent. to me 1.5 percent would be literally 150 percent, so when Im seeing 4.5 or 6.5 Im thinking "so 600 percent in the comp?" Yet with finangling I do get the multiplier with the opening day to work properly and my numbers work out. The decimal places just confuse my old school brain I think. Maybe it will make more sense when I am not  using JW3 comps for future movies esp kids films lol

 

 

 

Mathematically, 0.45 (for example) is 45% and not 0.45%. So 1x = 100%. So my Lightyear/JWD comp means Lightyear is at 36.44% of adjusted sales versus JWD. Lightyear is at 96.62% of Sonic 2 and 561.8% of The Bad Guys.

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Hmmm... An interesting point about JWD.  Took a super quick glance and thanks to the EA showings, the PLF ratio is kinda in the right ballpark.  3D is a lot less for LY though, and I reckon it'll sell even more kids tickets than JWD.  Still, by now the differences in pre-sale length = exactly zero, so I've added it to my comps for my final report in about 45 min.

 

Is the highest comp I have, fwiw.  Still something for me to keep in mind as I didn't think the PLF ratio would be remotely close.

On my end, I use a crude adjustment to account for PLF and 3D sales. I apply $15 for every standard ticket, $16 to ever 3D ticket and $20 for every PLF (Dolby, IMAX, Prime). Obviously this is inexact and doesn’t account for other things like child ticket pricing, matinee breakdown or anything else but I’m not interested in putting THAT much more effort into this.

Edited June 16, 2022 by ZurgXXR

[Tinalera]

8 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

Mathematically, 0.45 (for example) is 45% and not 0.45%. So 1x = 100%. So my Lightyear/JWD comp means Lightyear is at 36.44% of adjusted sales versus JWD. Lightyear is at 96.62% of Sonic 2 and 561.8% of The Bad Guys.

This is why math was never my strong subject LOL. But thank you for that clarification and that makes total sense put that way, my brain gets it now