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Tokugennumataka

Weekday Thread (Jan 31-Feb 3)

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3 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Mon - 910k

Tue - 1090k (+20) 

Wed - 820k (-25) 

Thu - 738k (-10) 

Fri - 2.07M (+180) 

Sat - 3.90M (+88) 

Sun - 2.50M (-36) 

Good chance for 8.5M+ this wknd imo. 


Thursday shouldn’t drop that much (if any) from Wednesday and Wednesday should be closer to Monday than that. Using your other numbers, something like….

 

910-1090-890-870-2440-4590-2930

 

Edited by RiddlerXXR
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23 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:


Thursday shouldn’t drop that much (if any) from Wednesday and Wednesday should be closer to Monday than that. Using your other numbers, something like….

 

910-1090-890-870-2440-4590-2930

 

$10M 8th weekend ? That seems huge

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1 (1) Spider-Man: No Way Home Sony Pictures $910,449 -68% -6% 3,675 $248 $736,800,257 46
2 (2) Scream Paramount Pi… $615,719 -64% -32% 3,518 $175 $62,630,133 18
3 (3) Sing 2 Universal $254,160 -80% -9% 3,450 $74 $134,628,430 41
- (4) Redeeming Love Universal $154,915 -62% -42% 1,963 $79 $6,606,390 11
- (7) The 355 Universal $111,330 -63% -9% 2,513 $44 $13,131,180 25
- (9) American Underdog: The Ku… Lionsgate $84,679 -53% -8% 2,113 $40 $24,803,508 38
- (11) Licorice Pizza United Artists $74,253 -45% -2% 772 $96 $11,829,922 67
- (13) House of Gucci United Artists $57,768 -51% -5% 907 $64 $52,963,933 69
- (8) Ghostbusters: Afterlife Sony Pictures $45,160 -77% +11% 1,170 $39 $128,110,508 74
- (-) The Matrix Resurrections Warner Bros. $34,807 -59% -15% 879 $40 $37,135,398 41
- (-) Belfast Focus Features $20,060 -46% +594% 196 $102 $7,218,025 81
- (-) Dune Warner Bros. $13,304 -56% +280% 248 $54 $107,598,447 102
- (-) Sundown Bleecker Street $2,215 -52%   6 $369 $24,145 4
- (-) King Richard Warner Bros. $822 -50% -44% 55 $15 $14,858,628 74

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

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With that week to week hold plus this being a no-football Sunday I’d say a small increase is possible but there are actually some new releases this weekend that could garner mild interest. 
 

Still, a 10-20% dip seems like worst case scenario unless Monday was a fluke day

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20 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I’ve got over 800 as more likely than under 780, let’s see how it develops.


It’ll be right around $750M after this weekend (+/- 2%) and I think it can do 5x this weekend. So let’s say $785-790M finish? 

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1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Weekend should be 9+, so… 👀


TFA did an additional $30M after this weekend (off of a $6.9M weekend) and Jumanji did $52M off of $10.9M. 
 

So that’s 4.34x and 4.77x, respectively. I’m thinking about $9.7-10.2M for NWH. So an additional $42-48M after this weekend. 
 

Hmm, yep it looks like a run on $800M is feasible but it’ll need some real good late legs.

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5 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:


TFA did an additional $30M after this weekend (off of a $6.9M weekend) and Jumanji did $52M off of $10.9M. 
 

So that’s 4.34x and 4.77x, respectively. I’m thinking about $9.7-10.2M for NWH. So an additional $42-48M after this weekend. 
 

Hmm, yep it looks like a run on $800M is feasible but it’ll need some real good late legs.

Quebec showing up could be worth like $3 or 4, and no Deadpool or Black Panther level competition (until March). Omicron receding may continue to help legs at the margin.    
 

However I think that TFA weekend is the SB? Probably better to line things up  with the SB and Pres at this point when comparing.

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2 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Quebec showing up could be worth like $3 or 4, and no Deadpool or Black Panther level competition (until March). Omicron receding may continue to help legs at the margin.    
 

However I think that TFA weekend is the SB? Probably better to line things up  with the SB and Pres at this point when comparing.


Yes TFA weekend would be the SB but we can just parallel NWH to that after next weekend (it’s likely NWH makes similar to TFA’s $6.9M that weekend). So let’s say we’re at $749M after this weekend. Then $2.7M M-T next week, and $6.9M that weekend. Gives us $758.6M through SB Sunday. If it matches TFA beyond that, we’re at $789M. 

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2 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:


Yes TFA weekend would be the SB but we can just parallel NWH to that after next weekend (it’s likely NWH makes similar to TFA’s $6.9M that weekend). So let’s say we’re at $749M after this weekend. Then $2.7M M-T next week, and $6.9M that weekend. Gives us $758.6M through SB Sunday. If it matches TFA beyond that, we’re at $789M. 

Right now I’m working with:

2.75 tues-Th 

9.35 wknd

3.1 next weekdays

7.2 SB wknd (759 cume)  

 

So quite close to what you just said. Same legs as TFA from the M-Sun week give 790 from there but I expect better legs for NWH.

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