HH84 Posted August 1, 2016 Share Posted August 1, 2016 Sunday was stronger than expected. Estimates: Pets 705k STB 220k IA5 185k Tarzan 177,5k incl. around 10k previews ID4 2 160k 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 2, 2016 Author Share Posted August 2, 2016 Austria's numbers for July are in and they're basically ok (we missed 1mil admissions but thanks to the system of always counting whole weeks, the last July weekend will be included in August numbers) Some fun facts: Ice Age 5 is at 350k admissions by now and will end up not that far behind Zootopia's 400k, not that bad after the lukewarm start. Me Before You has crossed 200k admissions by now, incredible! Alice Through the Looking Glass might end up with less than 150k admissions, what a fall from the >500k of the first one. The biggest "flops" were probably Bastille Day , Our Kind of Traitor , and Pride, Prejudice & Zombies (which didn't even reach 10k admissions). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 2, 2016 Author Share Posted August 2, 2016 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 The Secret Life of Pets 705.785 688 1.026 705.785 6.401.317 - 1 2 Star Trek 3 222.248 567 392 717.469 7.932.032 -27 2 3 Ice Age 5 186.624 785 238 2.124.730 17.146.977 -21 5 4 Legend of Tarzan 167.248 450 372 182.847 1.841.504 - 1 5 Independence Day 2 162.560 733 222 1.149.153 12.331.010 -30 3 6 Me Before You 101.454 666 152 1.842.716 14.492.235 -15 6 7 L'Etudiante et Monsieur Henri 63.516 219 290 180.867 1.324.366 +27 2 8 Toni Erdmann 49.863 162 308 235.069 2.167.349 +9 3 9 The BFG 49.838 517 96 177.146 1.523.416 -38 2 10 Central Intelligence 33.530 250 134 871.290 7.002.814 -22 7 11 Smaragdgrün 29.126 372 78 434.872 3.315.516 -36 4 12 Conjuring 2 22.886 277 83 680.018 6.081.108 -20 7 13 Mullewapp 18.849 530 36 105.112 664.092 -13 3 14 Le Goût des merveilles 12.406 15 827 596.811 4.376.893 +32 21 15 Ich bin dann mal weg 9.281 57 163 1.887.634 14.547.749 +109 32 16 Streetdance - New York 7.769 268 29 89.363 644.460 -48 3 17 Zeit für Legenden 7.647 78 98 22.323 141.534 - 1 18 La vache 7.276 103 71 53.906 368.089 +6 3 19 Fack Ju Göhte 2 6.145 37 166 7.695.690 62.800.236 +++ 47 20 Wiener Dog 5.629 47 120 8.652 59.878 - 1 A very nice start for Pets, not so for Tarzan. Pets' success should have hurt other family stuff (BFG had the hardest drop in the charts) but Ice Age 5 showed remarkable staying power, as did Me Before You. And open air screenings help older releases back into the charts - even Fack Ju Göhte 2 made a comeback and should cross 7,7mil total this week! And french longrunner Le Goût des merveilles made >12k admissions in only 15 locations (which means probably <25 shows with the open air events) Next weekend: Ghostbusters hit the german-speaking market - reviews were lukewarm to toxic but #2 on the charts is possible with no other big opening. Well, I'd be happy with anything above 150k admissions, frankly. Weather is looking mostly good so family stuff will probably drop hard. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted August 2, 2016 Share Posted August 2, 2016 (edited) 7 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 The Secret Life of Pets 705.785 688 1.026 705.785 6.401.317 - 1 2 Star Trek 3 222.248 567 392 717.469 7.932.032 -27 2 3 Ice Age 5 186.624 785 238 2.124.730 17.146.977 -21 5 4 Legend of Tarzan 167.248 450 372 182.847 1.841.504 - 1 5 Independence Day 2 162.560 733 222 1.149.153 12.331.010 -30 3 6 Me Before You 101.454 666 152 1.842.716 14.492.235 -15 6 7 L'Etudiante et Monsieur Henri 63.516 219 290 180.867 1.324.366 +27 2 8 Toni Erdmann 49.863 162 308 235.069 2.167.349 +9 3 9 The BFG 49.838 517 96 177.146 1.523.416 -38 2 10 Central Intelligence 33.530 250 134 871.290 7.002.814 -22 7 11 Smaragdgrün 29.126 372 78 434.872 3.315.516 -36 4 12 Conjuring 2 22.886 277 83 680.018 6.081.108 -20 7 13 Mullewapp 18.849 530 36 105.112 664.092 -13 3 14 Le Goût des merveilles 12.406 15 827 596.811 4.376.893 +32 21 15 Ich bin dann mal weg 9.281 57 163 1.887.634 14.547.749 +109 32 16 Streetdance - New York 7.769 268 29 89.363 644.460 -48 3 17 Zeit für Legenden 7.647 78 98 22.323 141.534 - 1 18 La vache 7.276 103 71 53.906 368.089 +6 3 19 Fack Ju Göhte 2 6.145 37 166 7.695.690 62.800.236 +++ 47 20 Wiener Dog 5.629 47 120 8.652 59.878 - 1 A very nice start for Pets, not so for Tarzan. Pets' success should have hurt other family stuff (BFG had the hardest drop in the charts) but Ice Age 5 showed remarkable staying power, as did Me Before You. And open air screenings help older releases back into the charts - even Fack Ju Göhte 2 made a comeback and should cross 7,7mil total this week! And french longrunner Le Goût des merveilles made >12k admissions in only 15 locations (which means probably <25 shows with the open air events) Next weekend: Ghostbusters hit the german-speaking market - reviews were lukewarm to toxic but #2 on the charts is possible with no other big opening. Well, I'd be happy with anything above 150k admissions, frankly. Weather is looking mostly good so family stuff will probably drop hard. Industrious, early in the summer MarkG had predicted a 700K opening weekend for Pets for a 5m admissions end of run. Is this doable given it opened right around that figure? Edited August 2, 2016 by MinaTakla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 2, 2016 Author Share Posted August 2, 2016 Of course it's doable, a 7x multiplier is not extraordinary for family stuff. But in summer, weather is such a strong influence that you never can be sure - 4mil should be toast with this opening, in any case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted August 3, 2016 Share Posted August 3, 2016 (edited) Mark G's predictions for the holdovers this weekend given the current weather: Nr. Besucher Wochenende % Besucher bis Sonntag Mögliches Endergebnis Woche Film (Studio) RT IMDB Prognose der Drebins in Tsd. WE Ende --- 1 Ghostbusters (COL) 73 5,4 --- 1 Lights Out (WB) 77 7,0 494.000 -30 1.550.000 4.000.000 2 Pets (U) 74 6,8 155.000 -30 975.000 1.250.000 3 Star Trek Beyond (PAR) 83 7,5 122.000 -35 2.340.000 2.750.000 6 Ice Age 5 (FOX) 12 5,9 117.000 -30 375.000 700.000 2 Legend of Tarzan (WB) 35 6,7 81.000 -50 1.300.000 1.500.000 4 Independence Day 2 (FOX) 32 5,5 76.000 -25 1.975.000 2.200.000 7 Ein ganzes halbes Jahr (WB) 58 7,6 45.000 -30 250.000 500.000 3 Frühstück bei Monsieur Henri (NV) - 6,7 35.000 -30 290.000 500.000 4 Toni Erdmann (NFP) - 8,7 Edited August 3, 2016 by MinaTakla 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 4, 2016 Share Posted August 4, 2016 (edited) The Thursday estimates via insidekino.de (forum): New releases: Ghostbusters (released in 600 theaters): 33k Lights Out (280 theaters): 23k (fine!) Maggies Plan (97 theaters): ?k Holdovers: Pets: 44k evening only (last Thursday= its release day 155k, so an (very?) ok hold) Me Before You: 30k (!) Star Trek Beyond: 27k (l.T. 45k) Independence Day 2: 15k (l.T. 30k) Tarzan: 14k (l.T. 30k) Frühstück bei Monsieur Henri: 9k So it seems that Ghostbusters (2016) will have a mediocre start and that fits to the rest. As mentioned earlier this week the film gets also mediocre reviews, only some bigger newspapers liked the film or at least defended it. When it comes to normal moviegoers Ghostbusters has a lot of talking or better said discussion around it but not much goodwill or real interest as it seems. WOW so far is also not good even if it's hard to decide if all the people who did score it indeed saw it or just want to complain. But it looks like also longtime Ghostbusters-fans are not thrilled. I don't see a great longterm run. Lights Out and Maggies Plan are receiving solid to good reviews. Because of the sunny and warm weather I also doubt that many families (and other people) will use this weekend for a cinema attendance so if the family-oriented films don't hold too well this weekend this does mean very little for the following, probably colder weeks and weekends. Edited August 4, 2016 by el sid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted August 4, 2016 Author Share Posted August 4, 2016 On 2.8.2016 at 2:41 PM, IndustriousAngel said: Well, I'd be happy with anything above 150k admissions, frankly. Weather is looking mostly good so family stuff will probably drop hard. 26 minutes ago, el sid said: The Thursday estimates via insidekino.de (forum): New releases: Ghostbusters (released in 600 theaters): 33k Lights Out (280 theaters): 23k (fine!) Looks as if I will have to be happy, but of course, secretly I was hoping for a lot more from Ghostbusters ... with these Thursday numbers, it will probably make around 200k. Crazy PTA for Lights Out, never saw that coming - there might even be an expansion in play for next week ... a horror releases that doesn't drop in its 2nd weekend would be nearly sensational! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 (edited) The 1. Trend - Light and Shadow #1: Pets with 500k, a quite good hold, should have around 1.6M admissions after this weekend #2: Ghostbusters with 175k – a little bit disappoiting #3: Lights Out with 150k – not bad at all & Star Trek Beyond with also 150k #5: Ice Age 5: 130k #6: Tarzan: 125k #7: Me Before You: 100k (stays flat) So mostly pretty good holds and a nice opening for Lights Out, only Ghostbusters should have done better but it's not really a big surprise. Edited August 5, 2016 by el sid 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HH84 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 In the 2nd trend everything decreased: Pets 450k STB 140k GB 130k IA5 120k LO 110k Tarzan 100k MBY 90k ID4 2 80k 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 @IndustriousAngel- will the relatively big family film drops this weekend (because of weather) affect their end-of-run multiple so much? Or will they be able to rebound in the coming weekends? Am not sure if this weekend's weather will remain or not throughout August.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 What a terrible second trend, especially for the new releases :(. Of course the numbers for Lights Out are acceptable but still... 3 hours ago, MinaTakla said: @IndustriousAngel- will the relatively big family film drops this weekend (because of weather) affect their end-of-run multiple so much? Or will they be able to rebound in the coming weekends? Am not sure if this weekend's weather will remain or not throughout August.. I think IndustriousAngel has by far more experience than me how family films behave in the time between summer and autumn but I can say that normally summer is over here (at least in Southern Germany) in the middle of August. Around the second weekend the last „beach party“-parties take place and that's it. Which means IMO that family films (among other movies) should have good legs in the following weeks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PanaMovie Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 When is Suicide Squad opening in Germany? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HH84 Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 23 minutes ago, PanaMovie said: When is Suicide Squad opening in Germany? 8/18/16 Here is a list of opening dates for Germany: http://www.insidekino.de/DStarts/DStartplan.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 3rd trend is even worse : Pets 400k STB 130k Ghostbusters 115k Ice Age 5 100k Tarzan 100k Lights Out 100k (only one that's still somewhat good/ok) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 Just now, miketheavenger said: 3rd trend is even worse : Pets 400k STB 130k Ghostbusters 115k Ice Age 5 100k Tarzan 100k Lights Out 100k (only one that's still somewhat good/ok) Can Pets still make it to 4m admissions by end of its run as predicted earlier by Insidekino? Or will the next weeks still have good weather that will make it drop like this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 10 minutes ago, MinaTakla said: Can Pets still make it to 4m admissions by end of its run as predicted earlier by Insidekino? Or will the next weeks still have good weather that will make it drop like this? I'm not as big an expert as @IndustriousAngel, but I think it's still possible. Family movies usually have great legs here. Look at Ice Age 5. I do think 4m or even passing Zootopia might be difficult now, but who knows? All around, Pets is still already a big success. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, miketheavenger said: I'm not as big an expert as @IndustriousAngel, but I think it's still possible. Family movies usually have great legs here. Look at Ice Age 5. I do think 4m or even passing Zootopia might be difficult now, but who knows? All around, Pets is still already a big success. Thanks Mike! @IndustriousAngel, what do you think? Is 4m admissions for Pets still doable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 Maybe IndustriousAngel is on vacation? At least almost everything improved, especially Pets: Pets 440/1570 - so it does fine during the week too STB 140/980 Ghostbusters 125k IA5 115/2385 Tarzan 105/365 Lights Out 105/110 Me Before You 87.5/2010 ID 2 82.5/1315 Monsieur Henri 45/270 Toni Erdmann 45/320 BFG 25/240 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HH84 Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 6 hours ago, el sid said: Pets 440/1570 - so it does fine during the week too The last week Pets did benefit from summer breaks everywhere: On thursday school started in the first states and over the next weeks more states will follow. So the results during the week should get worse compared to the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...