BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[Issac Newton]

Some more Germany WKend Numbers:

 

⚪ The Batman : €3,560 / €18,233,834

⚪ Spider-Man: No Way Home : €2,613 / €45,779,707

⚪ Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0 : €827 / €2,529,299

 

Austria Gross for Belle - €28,469

[altglascontainer]

No way Home is still in Theaters, wow

[Taruseth]

On 6/13/2022 at 10:59 PM, Taruseth said:

 

T-2  - Counted Monday 13th June 2022 22:58

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		70	20	27695	0,07

 

 

No comps - as most of them are utterly useless - only will post comps Wednesday evening.

 

Won't do the German movie this evening, might try to get a final count of it on Wednesday.

T-1  - Counted Tuesday 14th June 2022 23:44

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		77	41	29208	0,14

 

An increase of 21 tickets, so +105% - assuming another 105% increase for the next 24h gets it to 84 tickets:

Which would mean (with final comps taken Wednesday evening 22:00-23:59):

Aladdin: 49k

Five Feet Apart => 105k

TS4: 52k

 

The Toy Story comp would (with a 105% increase) get it to 52k, that's not a lot.

 

Unless it explodes I am thinking 100k opening max. Total below 500k.

Obviously weather is really important, if somehow the weekend turns out really rainy, it could explode, but with the current weather forecast I think Thursday-Saturday will be absolutely abysmal.

Like:

20k

15k

10k

50k

for a 95k OWend.

Thinking it could open below JWD and TG2.

 

Don't think the German movie will fare better, it currently is at:

Geschichte der Menschheit - leicht gekürzt

T-1  - Counted Tuesday 14th June 2022 23:44

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		??	28	??	??

 

With a total different spread though, at the CS Bremen it has sold 18 tickets, while Lightyear has sold 1, at the other two Lightyear is ahead. CX Bremen: (Geschichte vs LY): CX Bremen: 2 vs 9 and CS Fra 8 vs 31.

 

So probably heading to a 50k OWend.

[Taruseth]

7 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top14 last weekend:

 

 

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Jurassic World 3	492.536	641	768	593.171	6.950.152	-	1
2	Top Gun 2	240.037	722	332	1.620.506	16.833.949	-41	3
3	Doctor Strange 2	47.240	424	111	2.097.815	22.318.583	-59	6
4	Ryu to Sobakasu no Hime	28.417	319	89	28.534	354.122	-	1
5	Mia and Me	22.189	574	39	198.454	1.450.405	-46	3
6	Fantastic Beasts 3	21.299	405	53	2.881.334	29.057.526	-54	10
7	Paw Patrol: Jet to the Rescue	19.887	528	38	95.640	508.924	-56	2
8	Immenhof	19.051	608	31	177.951	1.326.906	-47	3
9	Dog	17.403	420	41	230.923	2.010.336	-57	4
10	The Lost City	12.486	293	43	611.874	5.514.175	-60	8
11	The Bad Boys	12.362	325	38	820.983	6.052.717	-37	13
12	Sonic the Hedgehog 2	8.021	295	27	1.000.180	8.070.756	-50	11
13	Everything Everywhere All at Once	6.493	146	44	120.960	1.092.397	-32	7
14	Verdens verste menneske	6.457	94	69	28.282	238.735	-35	2

 

 

Steep drops, but with the ok opening of Jurrasic World 3 there was even a slight uptick in overall admissions. Also good: Anime event Ryu to Sobakasu no Hime (Belle); the PTA is misleading here because there were only very few slots; I suspect that in per-show-average, it would top the chart! And looking a bit farther down, The Bad Boys is showing excellent staying power, it was never a big hit but very stable numbers week after week.

Next weekend: The biggest opener should be Lightyear; however, the franchise is not as popular as in the US - only Toy Story 2 came near to 3mil total, TS3 dropped to 1,6mil - and beautiful weather will drive families outdoors (plus, many are still travelling); I'd be surprised if it can reach a 300k OW under these conditions. Also opening: The Unbearable Weight Of Massive Talent (poor presales) - expect a horrible weekend.

 

 

You forgot TS 4: 238k Opening Weekend, so no way Lightyear opens anywhere close to 300k.

 

6 hours ago, altglascontainer said:

No way Home is still in Theaters, wow

Yeah, probably one show per week.

 

Don't know where though.

My old go to cinema has already dropped, oldest movie they are still playing ist Uncharted, which gets it (probably final) showing in week 17 tomorrow evening.

[altglascontainer]

37 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Yeah, probably one show per week.

 

Don't know where though.

My old go to cinema has already dropped, oldest movie they are still playing ist Uncharted, which gets it (probably final) showing in week 17 tomorrow evening.

 

Maybe Open Air showings. We have a Few Open Air cinemas in my City, which also Show older movies. 

[altglascontainer]

22 hours ago, altglascontainer said:

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-22

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	37	293	9327	3,14%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 244

 

Comp

0.094x of DS2 T-22 (0.16M€/15.000 Adm. OD)

 

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-21

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	56	501	14718	3,40%

 

Total Seats Sold Last Day: 208

 

Comp

0.152x of DS2 T-21 (0.25M€/24.500 Adm. OD)

 

Good day for Thor, gained momentum against DS2.

Lightyear also with a good day, sold another 140 Tickets. Comps say 4k to 7k OD, but with holiday on thursday could go up easily.

 

[Taruseth]

23 hours ago, Taruseth said:

T-1  - Counted Tuesday 14th June 2022 23:44

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		77	41	29208	0,14

 

An increase of 21 tickets, so +105% - assuming another 105% increase for the next 24h gets it to 84 tickets:

Which would mean (with final comps taken Wednesday evening 22:00-23:59):

Aladdin: 49k

Five Feet Apart => 105k

TS4: 52k

 

The Toy Story comp would (with a 105% increase) get it to 52k, that's not a lot.

 

Unless it explodes I am thinking 100k opening max. Total below 500k.

Obviously weather is really important, if somehow the weekend turns out really rainy, it could explode, but with the current weather forecast I think Thursday-Saturday will be absolutely abysmal.

Like:

20k

15k

10k

50k

for a 95k OWend.

Thinking it could open below JWD and TG2.

 

Don't think the German movie will fare better, it currently is at:

Geschichte der Menschheit - leicht gekürzt

T-1  - Counted Tuesday 14th June 2022 23:44

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		??	28	??	??

 

With a total different spread though, at the CS Bremen it has sold 18 tickets, while Lightyear has sold 1, at the other two Lightyear is ahead. CX Bremen: (Geschichte vs LY): CX Bremen: 2 vs 9 and CS Fra 8 vs 31.

 

So probably heading to a 50k OWend.

 

T-0  - Counted Wednesday 15th June 2022 22:55

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		77	104	29208	0,36

 

63 tickets sold in the past 24 hours - meaning +154 %.

Aladdin => 61k

Five Feet Apart => 130k

TS 4 => 64k

Still thinking sub 100k is possible, might instead get to 100k.

 

 

And "Die Geschichte der Menschheit - leicht gekürzt":

T-0  - Counted Wednesday 14th June 2022 23:10

TFSS at the 3 old ones (CS Bremen, CX Bremen and CS Frankfurt):

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total		33	48	6993	0,69

 

No comps, but probably won't open that large.

[Aristis]

1st Trend:

 

#1 JW3 275k (-44%/-54%) 1M

#2 TG2 175k (-27%) 1,9M

#3 Lightyear 65k

#4 Geschichte der Menschheit 62,5k

#5 DS2 25k (-47%) 

 

Thursday:

#1 JW3 71k (-12%) 

#2 TG2 48k (+) 

#3 Geschichte der Menschheit 15,7k

#4 Lightyear 14,3k

[Taruseth]

On 6/6/2022 at 12:44 PM, Taruseth said:

I expected a good day but not that good.

@charlie Jatinder Any idea how good yesterday was? 150k?

But that is a better hold.

FB3 would have needed a better hold; it might end up like this.

8th Wdays: 18k (total 2790k)

9th Wend: 45k (total 2835k)

9th Wdays: 20k (total 2855k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2880k)

10th Wdays: 7.5k (total 2887.5k)

11th Wend: 17.5k (total 2905k)

11th Wdays: 5k (total 2910k)

12th Wend: 10k (total 2915k)

12th Wdays: 2.5k (total 2917.5k)

13th Wend: 7.5k (total 2925k)

End.

Chance for 3m is still there, but I'd say only like 30-40% likely.

especially if it has a great day today and manages to hold well next weekend (like 25k days and 35k Wend it could get to 3000k)

 

 

Puuh, I always try to do true weekend, primarily because that way adding days before the weekend doesn't help getting a big OWend, but, I know that, it helps with legs, movies that open earlier tend to have slightly better legs.

And it's Pentacost holiday.

So something like this?:

Previews: 83k

1st Wend: 530,5k (total 613,6k)

1st Wdays: 144k (total 757.5k)

2nd Wend: 407.5k (total 1165k)

2nd Wdays: 200k (total 1365k)

3rd Wend: 225k (total 1590k) (good weather and JWD)

3rd Wdays: 80k (total 1670k)

4th Wend: 160k (total 1830k)

4th Wdays: 80k (total 1910k)

5th Wend: 140k (total 2050k)

5th Wdays 100k (total 2150k)

6th Wend: 60k (total 2210k) (Thor)

6th Wdays: 40k (total  2250k)

7th Wend: 45k (total 2295k)

7th Wdays: 30k (total 2325k)

8th Wend: 35k (total 2360k)

9th Wdays: 15k (total 2375k)

10th Wend: 25k (total 2400k)

10th Wdays: 10k (total 2410k)

Adding another 100k after that 2510k

 

 

With that 4th weekend and a total of 1900k it‘s about 70k ahead of this plan with a slightly higher 4th weekend. So I am thinking 2500k should still be the target, probably will get a little further than that though.

[RJ-195]

28 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

With that 4th weekend and a total of 1900k it‘s about 70k ahead of this plan with a slightly higher 4th weekend. So I am thinking 2500k should still be the target, probably will get a little further than that though.

What is the reason for good drop in 5th weekend in your prediction and increase in weekdays ? Is there any holiday in there ?

Edited June 17, 2022 by RJ-195

[Borobudur]

47 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

With that 4th weekend and a total of 1900k it‘s about 70k ahead of this plan with a slightly higher 4th weekend. So I am thinking 2500k should still be the target, probably will get a little further than that though.

Is Thor 4 coming to Germany in 6th weekend? That is 30th June weekend

[Taruseth]

5 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Is Thor 4 coming to Germany in 6th weekend? That is 30th June weekend

No, I misplaced Thor's opening it opens in its 7th weekend (weekend of 07th Juli) (Wednesday start).

 

 

6 hours ago, RJ-195 said:

What is the reason for good drop in 5th weekend in your prediction and increase in weekdays ? Is there any holiday in there ?

I don't think Elvis and Black phone will be a problem for it - JWD will initially dampen the previous two weekends. That might have just been me mixing up weekdays and weekends - no, there shouldn't be any holidays and summer holidays for school are barely starting now, but that will gradually strengthen the weekdays.

 

[el sid]

The final trend (probably the weather is just too good, edit: or too bad):

 

#1 JWD 260k

#2 TGM 160k

#3 Die Geschichte der Menschheit leicht gekürzt  50k

#4 Lightyear 47.5k

#5 Massive Talent 25k

 

Edited June 19, 2022 by el sid

[Brainbug]

Just now, el sid said:

The final trend (probably the weather is just too good):

 

#1 JWD 260k

#2 TGM 160k

#3 Die Geschichte der Menschheit leicht gekürzt  50k

#4 Lightyear 47.5k

#5 Massive Talent 25k

 

 

I nearly died yesterday because of the heat so for the first time i actually understand people not wanting to leave their homes except for eating Ice Cream.

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

The final trend (probably the weather is just too good):

 

#1 JWD 260k

#2 TGM 160k

#3 Die Geschichte der Menschheit leicht gekürzt  50k

#4 Lightyear 47.5k

#5 Massive Talent 25k

 

 

Yeah, unless you live in Lower Saxony (at least the northern parts), Bremen, Hamburg or Schleswig-Holstein, here its below 20 °C and it even rained.

 

And F**** that trend is utterly awful.

It's bd for Geschichte der Menschheit, but completely and utterly awful for Lightyear. It's opening right around (or barely below) Toy Story 4's 5th!!!!! weekend and that was a flop already.

So it most likely will stay below 300k (a drop of 67% from TS4!)

 

Thinking Minions should beat that on OD and probably will beat the whole run on Thursday and Friday (probably won't even need Saturday and Sunday).

 

Also TG2 with that would hit exactly the number in my long term predictions lol - and with the weather hopefully not being as hot next weekend it might have a shot at actually dropping very little - never mind, just looked up predictions for next weekend - it won't drop that little.

 

So Lightyear probably won't be flat or even increase next weekend but instead drop.

 

 

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I nearly died yesterday because of the heat so for the first time i actually understand people not wanting to leave their homes except for eating Ice Cream.

I am glad it wasn't this bad in northern Germany.

14 °C right now

 

 

[Taruseth]

4 hours ago, Taruseth said:

 

Yeah, unless you live in Lower Saxony (at least the northern parts), Bremen, Hamburg or Schleswig-Holstein, here its below 20 °C and it even rained.

 

And F**** that trend is utterly awful.

It's bd for Geschichte der Menschheit, but completely and utterly awful for Lightyear. It's opening right around (or barely below) Toy Story 4's 5th!!!!! weekend and that was a flop already.

So it most likely will stay below 300k (a drop of 67% from TS4!)

 

Thinking Minions should beat that on OD and probably will beat the whole run on Thursday and Friday (probably won't even need Saturday and Sunday).

 

Also TG2 with that would hit exactly the number in my long term predictions lol - and with the weather hopefully not being as hot next weekend it might have a shot at actually dropping very little - never mind, just looked up predictions for next weekend - it won't drop that little.

 

So Lightyear probably won't be flat or even increase next weekend but instead drop.

 

 

I am glad it wasn't this bad in northern Germany.

14 °C right now

 

 

The weather is so cold that people did go to the cinema - enough for the trend to be slightly less awful, but it still will be awful.

Thinking LY could drop from 3rd (probably will come in barely above Menschheit) to 5th or 6th next weekend (behind JWD, TG2, Elvis, Black Phone and maybe Menschheit).

The weekend after that Minions and Notre-Dame will open above it -> 6th -8th place (Black Phone and Menschheit are the variables) and then with Liebesdings and Thor - 8th-10th plate and maybe something else opens above it, meaning it would leave the Top 10 after just three weeks.

 

Don't know if I will take a look at Elvis today or tomorrow - definitely will try to do a final count on Wednesday and should be able to do a count on Tuesday (after I finally - hopefully) go to see Top Gun - somehow the weekends were always full and I wasn't motivated to go to the 11 pm showing and this week has been really full

Edited June 19, 2022 by Taruseth
grammar

[altglascontainer]

Monday Trend:

 

#1 JW3 290k

#2 TG2 180k

#3 Geschichte der Menschheit 57,5k

#4 Lightyear 55k

#5 DS2 25k 

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, altglascontainer said:

Monday Trend:

 

#1 JW3 290k

#2 TG2 180k

#3 Geschichte der Menschheit 57,5k

#4 Lightyear 55k

#5 DS2 25k 

Some late nice rebound! Also, the weather forecast for next week show heavy rainfall across Germany. This means some healthy bump to the box office right? 

[altglascontainer]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Some late nice rebound! Also, the weather forecast for next week show heavy rainfall across Germany. This means some healthy bump to the box office right? 

 

lets pray to the gods! But I think especially lightyear could profit from rainy weather.

 

 

Thor Love & Thunder (July 6th) Ba-Wü Preview Seat Report T-16

 

	Sellouts	Shows	Seats Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
Total	0	64	905	16414	5,51%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 5 Days: 404

 

Comp

2.351x of The Batman T-16 (1.19M€/115.500 Adm. OD)

0.696x of Top Gun 2 T-16 (0.59M€/57.750 Adm. OD)

DS2 - missed

 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top12 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Jurassic World 3	288.905	689	419	1.034.202	11.974.557	-41	2
2	Top Gun 2	180.437	672	269	1.911.657	19.748.254	-25	4
3	Die Geschichte der Menschheit - leicht gekürzt	56.691	417	136	57.473	528.792	-	1
4	Lightyear	55.231	510	108	55.231	460.564	-	1
5	Doctor Strange 2	25.620	276	93	2.143.764	22.752.108	-46	7
6	Mia and Me	15.438	558	28	222.524	1.624.578	-30	4
7	Paw Patrol: Jet to the Rescue	14.609	469	31	114.041	609.674	-27	3
8	The Unbearable Weight Of Massive Talent	14.436	328	44	27.731	214.009	-	1
9	Immenhof	12.342	565	23	197.839	1.468.820	-35	4
10	Fantastic Beasts 3	11.228	274	41	2.901.986	29.253.764	-47	11
11	On est fait pour s’entendre	9.176	174	53	17.038	128.563	-	1
12	The Bad Boys	8.827	268	33	834.414	6.146.052	-29	14

Sad weekend … Only Top Gun Maverick had a fine drop, especially considering the circumstances. Lightyear's opening was worse than the already low expectations, this franchise is obviously dead in Germany.

Next weekend: With worse weather, maybe some better holds (or even increases?). Among openers, Baz Lurmann's Elvis movie seems like a possible candidate for at least #3; Bohemian Rhapsody and Rocketman were both pretty successful in the German-speaking markets but Elvis takes us a few decades farther back in history so I'll keep my expectations low - presales are not good atm but we're still well into the 30s (Celsius, that is) so that might change with rainier days. Still, going by today's presales count, I'll be glad if it gets a 6-digit-opening …