BO Germany/Austria: Deadpool&Wolverine #1

[Taruseth]

10 hours ago, WayneBorg said:

So apparently the press release Uni sent out last night had Minions dropping 5% for a 4.2m USD weekend and a 10.4m USD cume. Looks like their figures were not correct. Wonder if they will update them and I think there's a 1m USD difference or so.

Yeah, thinking actuals should come in closer to $5.0-5.1m - so right on par with Thor 4.

Hoping Minions wins - but it will be very close.

 

Next weekend will probably be pretty bad - but the weekdays will be completely dead after that - predictions sound more like a horror movie than anything else.

 

40 °C - hopefully that won't turn out true.

 

 

 

I am not as confident about Avatar anymore, thinking inflation etc. could hurt movies quite a lot - especially with the income of most people falling behind.

Will obviously depend a lot on energy prices

 

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Taruseth

[Brainbug]

13 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Yeah, thinking actuals should come in closer to $5.0-5.1m - so right on par with Thor 4.

Hoping Minions wins - but it will be very close.

 

Next weekend will probably be pretty bad - but the weekdays will be completely dead after that - predictions sound more like a horror movie than anything else.

 

40 °C - hopefully that won't turn out true.

 

 

 

I am not as confident about Avatar anymore, thinking inflation etc. could hurt movies quite a lot - especially with the income of most people falling behind.

Will obviously depend a lot on energy prices

 

 

 

Yep with the uncertainty regarding Gas at the moment and what the situation will look like in Winter, Germans (and many Europeans generally) could have other worrys in 6 months than a new Avatar movie.

[Sophia Jane]

Minions and Top gun 2 will fight the yearly runner-up（behind Avatar 2）

[Taruseth]

13 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Yeah, thinking actuals should come in closer to $5.0-5.1m - so right on par with Thor 4.

Hoping Minions wins - but it will be very close.

 

Next weekend will probably be pretty bad - but the weekdays will be completely dead after that - predictions sound more like a horror movie than anything else.

 

40 °C - hopefully that won't turn out true.

 

 

 

I am not as confident about Avatar anymore, thinking inflation etc. could hurt movies quite a lot - especially with the income of most people falling behind.

Will obviously depend a lot on energy prices

 

 

Minions won clearer than I expected - €/$5.235M

Thor 4 - €/$4.849

 

We are at bloody parity now - 1€=$1.

 

TGM dropped just 6%! really good. Elvis dropped 11%.

 

 

Everything everywhere all at once will probably end up ahead of Lightyear - which will finish at just 160k admissions below Paw Patrol xD

 

 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top10 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Minions 2	571.743	737	776	1.209.719	11.156.584	+26	2
2	Thor 4	447.515	564	793	557.811	6.046.556	-	1
3	Top Gun 2	123.510	536	230	2.525.540	25.945.361	-6	7
4	Jurassic World 3	102.169	462	221	1.660.784	18.762.466	-25	5
5	Elvis	57.140	595	96	290.038	2.999.786	-11	3
6	Liebesdings	53.144	568	94	74.724	697.603	-	1
7	The Black Phone	34.800	274	127	163.498	1.491.952	-20	3
8	Alfons Zitterbacke	18.286	319	57	21.430	156.191	-	1
9	Die Geschichte der Menschheit	18.184	297	61	204.420	1.821.975	-45	4
10	Corsage	9.929	122	81	10.815	87.667	-	1

While last week's disappointment (Minions 2) showed a healthy increase and should see a healthy run in future weeks, this week's openers were lacking in punch … Thor 4 behind expectations and Liebesdings an outright flop. Corsage as an arthouse release wasn't expected to do much anyway but its PTA is extremely low for such a release, sad for the Vicky Krieps starrer. Overall an ok weekend (helped by rainy weather) - it's not every summer weekend that Germany has 4 releases with >100k admissions!

Business in Austria, btw, was - as usual atm - better - Minions a bit, but Thor and especially Maverick much stronger; Corsage came in 7th, no surprise with the Austrian theme but 6k admissions is nearly a magnitude better than Germany's measly 10k!

Next weekend: Sadly, weather is predicted to become disastrous for the movies over the week - expect some truly horrible drops. And there's not a single big opener to save overall business …

[Issac Newton]

Germany WKend (Additional Numbers)

 

⚪ Doctor Strange: In The Multiverse Of Madness - €10,177 / €23,091,773

⚪ Belle - €3,040 / €462,430

⚪ Spider-Man: No Way Home - €512 / €45,795,823

⚪ Heidi, Girl of the Alps (TV) - €35 / €588

⚪ Jujutsu Kaisen 0 - €0 / €2,530,831

 

Austria WKend 

 

① Thor: Love &Thunder - €706,731 / €1,105,329

② Minions 2 - €657,090 / €1,730,883

③ Top Gun: Maverick - €204,770 / €4,833,099

 

Misc.

Jurassic World: Dominion - €123,294 / €2,467,628

[IndustriousAngel]

17 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

③ Top Gun: Maverick - €204,770 / €4,833,099

It's remarkable how much better Maverick is doing in Austria ... Germany has 9,3 times the inhabitants of Austria, but Maverick's gross is only 5,4 times as high - meaning, Maverick's per-capita-gross in Austria was more than 70% ahead of Germany.

It's not unusual for Austria to lead that number by, say, 10%, when it comes to international productions - as a matter of fact, I'm taking those 10% as a rule-of-thumb - but >70% is really strange. Even when we take into consideration that Austria was a bit stronger than usual for most of the 2022 weeks, that's pretty extreme.

[Borobudur]

3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

It's remarkable how much better Maverick is doing in Austria ... Germany has 9,3 times the inhabitants of Austria, but Maverick's gross is only 5,4 times as high - meaning, Maverick's per-capita-gross in Austria was more than 70% ahead of Germany.

It's not unusual for Austria to lead that number by, say, 10%, when it comes to international productions - as a matter of fact, I'm taking those 10% as a rule-of-thumb - but >70% is really strange. Even when we take into consideration that Austria was a bit stronger than usual for most of the 2022 weeks, that's pretty extreme.

Perhaps German need to more firm up to support their film industry. 

[Taruseth]

23 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

It's remarkable how much better Maverick is doing in Austria ... Germany has 9,3 times the inhabitants of Austria, but Maverick's gross is only 5,4 times as high - meaning, Maverick's per-capita-gross in Austria was more than 70% ahead of Germany.

It's not unusual for Austria to lead that number by, say, 10%, when it comes to international productions - as a matter of fact, I'm taking those 10% as a rule-of-thumb - but >70% is really strange. Even when we take into consideration that Austria was a bit stronger than usual for most of the 2022 weeks, that's pretty extreme.

Difference in taste and slower going back to cinema in Germany.

Even in the past there were some quite big differences - TLK had 840k adm in Aus should mean 7500k in Germany it did just 5650k so Austria is about 50% ahead.

Or Mamma Mia doing 480k admissions but just 2200k in Germany, that's over 115% ahead.

 

If looking at total admissions - we are getting the following factors for Ger / Austria:

2021: 7.9x

2020: 8.6x

2019: 8.2x

2018: 7.7x

2017: 8.0x

2016: 7.8x

2015: 8.4x

2014: 8.1x

2013: 8.2x

2012: 8.1x

2011: 7.7x

2010: 7.3x

2009: 7.9x

etc.

What I want to point out: total admissions in Austria tend to be 15 % ahead of the admissions in Germany.

[Aristis]

On 7/8/2022 at 8:24 AM, Aristis said:

Thursday

 

#1 Minions 95k (+58%) 

#2 Thor4 90k (+110k Wed) 

#3 TG:M 20k (+11%) 

#4 JW3 16k (-6%) 

#5 Elvis 11k (+10%) 

#6 Liebesdings 10,5k

 

Thursday

 

#1 Minions 60k (-37%) >same as OD

#2 Thor4 45k (-50%) 

#3 TG:M 14k (-30%) 

#4 JW3 12k (-25%) 

#5 Liebesdings 7,5k (-29%) 

[Aristis]

1st Trend

 

#1 Minions2 300k (-48%) 1,7M

#2 Thor4 225k (-50%/-60% i.P.) 920k

#3 TG:M 75k (-40%) 2,645M

#4 JW3 60k (-41%) 1,755M

#5 Liebesdings 35k (-34%/-53% i.P.) 127,5k

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday update from insidekino.de ... Minions better, Thor worse than first estimates

Edited July 16, 2022 by IndustriousAngel

[MrHardapple]

Sunday update:

 

Minions: 350k

Thor: 225k

Top Gun: 85k

Jurassic World: 65k

Liebesdings: 35k

Elvis: 30k

 

Top Gun will be around 2.655 tickets sold after this weekend, the 3 million mark is definitely doable.

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by MrHardapple

[Taruseth]

3rd one by insidekino.de:

Minions: 350k (-39%) (total 1750k)

Thor 4: 225k (-50%)

TGM: 85k (-31%) (total 2650k)

JWD: 65k (-36%)

Liebesdings: 35k (-34%)

Elvis: 30k (-47% ouch)

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande: 25k

The Black Phone: 22.5k (-35%)

 

Northern and eastern Germany saving the weekend - but weather has been pretty cold and somewhat rainy until now - not looking forward to Tuesday and Wednesday 35 °C or so, but if predictions turn out true Thursday will be colder again (like 22°C).

Spoiler

On 7/4/2022 at 12:05 PM, Taruseth said:

update:

FB3 12th weekend was 8k and it was 2913k at that point. So it still looks like it will end around 2925-2950k.

Regarding TGM:

This were actuals at that point or for the 2nd Wend Monday estimates -(+2k/-3k) means the difference on that particular weekend or set of weekdays and the difference in cume at that point and the way to 3.1+m:

Previews: 83k

1st Wend: 530,5k (total 613,6k)

1st Wdays: 144k (total 757.5k)

2nd Wend: 408k (total 1166k) (+1/+1k)

2nd Wdays: 215k (total 1381k) (+15/+16k) (115k of those on Monday)

3rd Wend: 240k (total 1621k) (+15k/+31k) (good weather and JWD)

3rd Wdays: 111k (total 1732k) (+31k/+62k) (pentecost holidays in part of Germany)

4th Wend: 180k (total 1912k) (+20k/+82k) (Corpus Christi on Thursday)

4th Wdays: 69k (total 1981k) (-11k/+71k)

5th Wend: 155k (total 2136k)(+15k/+86k)

5th Wdays 74k (total 2210k) (-26k/+60k)

6th Wend: 130k (total 2340k) (+70k/+130k)

6th Wdays: 60k (total  2400k) (+20k/+150k)

7th Wend: 105k (total 2505k) (+60k/+210k) (Thor's actual opening weekend but weather looks good for cinemas)

7th Wdays: 50k (total 2555k) (+20k/+230k)

8th Wend: 80k (total 2630k) (+45k/+275k)

9th Wdays: 35k (total 2665k) (+20k/+295k)

10th Wend: 70k (total 2735k) (+45k / +335k)

10th Wdays: 30k (total 2765k) (+20k/+355k)

11th Wend: 55k (total 2820k)

11th Wdays: 25k (total 2840k)

12th Wend: 50k (total 2890k)(4th August-all states have summer holidays)

12th Wdays: 25k (total 2915k)

13th Wend: 40k (total 2955k)

13th Wdays: 15k (total 2970k) (summer holidays will end one by one after this)

14th Wend: 30k (total 3000k) "Goldene Leinwand"*

14th Wdays: 10k (total 3010k)

15th Wend: 25k (total 3035k)

15th Wdays: 7.5k (total 3042.5k)

16th Wend: 20k (total 3062.5k)

16th Wdays: 5k (total 3067.7k)

After this around 100k for a finish of 3150k-3200k

In other words: Germany saves some of its face with these holds - but still underwhelming compared to most other markets - legs wise this would be between 5.14x-5.22x (OWend with Previews) and 5.94x-6.04x (OWend)

 

Minions - this is a lot more shaky as weather can change it a lot - 40 °C everywhere could mean a 3rd Wend of 150k and then 20°C and rainy (but most light) could mean a 400k 4th Wend

1st Wend: 450k (total 450k)

1st Wdays: 150k (total 600k)

2nd Wend: 550k (total 1150k)

2nd Wdays: 175k (total 1325k)

3rd Wend: 300k (total 1625k) (really hot weather) overtakes TGM here

3rd Wdays: 125k (total 1750k)

4th Wend: 300k (total 2050k)

4th Wdays: 125k (total 2175k)

5th Wend: 200k (total 2375k)

5th Wdays: 100k (total 2475k)

6th Wend: 150k (total 2625k) (4th August)

6th Wdays: 75k (total 2700k)

7th Wend: 125k (total 2825k)

7th Wdays: 50k (total 2875k)

8th Wend: 125k (total 3000k) "Goldene Leinwand"*

8th Wdays: 40k (total 3040k)

9th Wend: 100k (total 3140k)

9th Wdays: 25k (total 3165k)

10th Wend: 90k (total 3255k)

10th Wdays: 20k (total 3275k)

Adding another 475k after this would result in 3750k

 

*in this prediction - if I didn't miscount - TGM and Minions 2 would cross the 3m mark on the same weekend (but TGM then is in its 14th week and Minion in its 8th week). But I think in the end Minions 2 will be slightly faster.

 

(Minions could also absolutely explode next weekend - if weather gets a bit more cloudy with some drizzle - I won't bet against the Minions)

1st Wend: 450k (total 450k)

1st Wdays: 150k (total 600k)

2nd Wend: 750k (total 1350k)

2nd Wdays: 300k (total 1650k)

3rd Wend: 500k (total 2150k)

3rd Wdays: 200k (total 2350k)

4th Wend: 400k (total 2750k)

4th Wdays: 200k (total 2950k)

5th Wend: 300k (total 3250k)

5th Wdays: 175k (total 3425k)

this could get the movie to a total of 5000k or more.) Predicting kids animation movies is something I simply can't. There drops can be a lot more frantic than those of other movies and summer is generally a hard time due to it being so incredibly weather dependent.

 

In the end I'd expect Avatar to get there during its 2nd week - with an outside shot (5 % or so) to get there in week 1 (helped by its first week being 8 days, due to it being a Wednesday opener). Football WM could obviously dent this a bit.

 

With how barren the rest of the year looks outside of December I think Avatar has the chance to get 100k in September - in a year with more movie releases in September and a big movie being released around the 3rd of October I'd expect it to get like 20k.

 

 

 

 

 

TGM is around 25k ahead of this forecast, Minions is 125k ahead - lol - that will change next weekend, was definitely too optimistic with Minions.

So both should get to 3m.

Going into December the top 3 are probably looking like this:

(I know that I am more optimistic than insidekino on Minions and a bit more on TGM - they have both around 3m - won't change the order):

#1 Minions 2: 3450k

#2 TGM: 3150k

#3 FB 3: 2940k

#4 DSMOM: 2180k

#5 JWD: 1900k

The other movies starting this month look to be below 1m (Bibi & Tina and DC Super-Pets having the largest chance at 1m). August looks kinda dead - fearing we might end up in a situation were After Forever wins the month.

After Passion got 1029k admission, Us only got 479k.

September looks just as dead outside of School of the magic animals (Schule der magischen Tiere) - first one got 1720k last year.

October has Black Adam and well  doesn't look good either.

November has Black Panther - doubt it can top the first one. Magic Flute probably won't do well enough and Strange World doesn't exactly look like Frozen. 

And that leaves December - which looks kinda shit too outside of Avatar and Puss in Boots (the first one got 3194k). Really hoping both are going to be big, the cinemas will need it. Shazam won't matter - it got 390k - thinking Avatar OD will definitely be larger than Shazam OWend with a chance that Avatar OD is as large as Shazam 2 total.

In other words TGM will probably end the year in third place - with twice as many admissions as I thought on the Day of previews (around 1600k of a 400k OWend - lol).

Minions 2 (numbers below DM2 (barely) & 3 and Minions) will be the first movie to end up #2.

DM was #7 in 2010, DM2 was #6 in 2013, Minions #4 in 2015, Dm3 #3 in 2017

 

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Taruseth

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top12 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Minions 2	361.720	732	494	1.759.023	16.029.262	-37	3
2	Thor 4	246.024	597	412	942.749	10.102.891	-45	2
3	Top Gun 2	92.654	610	152	2.664.144	27.352.441	-25	8
4	Jurassic World 3	71.266	506	141	1.765.585	19.839.779	-30	6
5	Liebesdings	38.698	578	67	131.956	1.170.424	-27	2
6	Elvis	32.934	557	59	347.906	3.591.913	-42	4
7	The Black Phone	23.108	273	85	196.643	1.794.877	-34	4
8	Good Luck To You, Leo Grande	17.272	156	111	28.558	235.206	-	1
9	Alfons Zitterbacke	13.250	357	37	43.564	307.722	-28	2
10	Die Geschichte der Menschheit	11.761	285	41	223.720	1.987.852	-35	5
11	Wunderschön	10.628	49	217	1.563.316	14.548.679	+	24
12	Paw Patrol: Jet to the Rescue	5.966	218	27	159.472	854.958	-32	7

Weather in the north was worse than predicted, accordingly, drops were softer - the farther south, the lower the numbers. (Austria had, for once, a worse weekend …). Top Gun Maverick shone with one more great hold, this movie seems unstoppable.

Next weekend: The streak of warm weather is predicted to continue, so expect low overall numbers again. Two mid-size openers might see some business - the latest Bibi&Tina movie (which is not a sequel but a reboot in the series of the domestic girl's book adaptions) and the 3rd Mr. Claude movie - the first one was a bestseller with nearly 4mil total, but the 2nd one couldn't keep this level. A total of around 1mil seems possible for both releases.

[Issac Newton]

Germany weekend (Additional)

 

◉ Doctor Strange 2 - €6,447 / €23,102,456

◉ Belle - €1,642 / €465,054

◉ Jujutsu Kaisen 0 - €204 / €2,531,035

 

Austria WKend

 

① Thor: Love &Thunder - €348,866 / €1,798,970

② Minions 2 - €311,483 / €2,357,809

③ Top Gun Maverick - €126,857 / €5,067,060

④ Jurassic World Dominion - €62,274 / €2,583,077

⑤ Elvis - €47,886 / €579,650

[titanic2187]

TGM has shown some great leg but I am still baffled by the fact that there are more German willing to go to cinema for 50 Shades of Grey than TGM. Judging also from the After series success, I can't imagine what-if 365 days is a theatrical release in Germany, the movie can easily blow past 5m admission.   

[Taruseth]

21 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

TGM has shown some great leg but I am still baffled by the fact that there are more German willing to go to cinema for 50 Shades of Grey than TGM. Judging also from the After series success, I can't imagine what-if 365 days is a theatrical release in Germany, the movie can easily blow past 5m admission.   

50 shades was fuelled by BDSM parts etc. (women and couples watching it) - TGM is fuelled my the military of another country - not exactly a great selling point in Germany. Furthermore the pandemic seems to hurt to  certain degree even now and on top of that the german market is in a slow decline, that has been going on for pretty much two decades.

And Germany always had an interesting choice of movies that do well - should look into the 70s or so - when sex education movies did really well (I don't know what decade exactly) - and calling them sex education movies is also a stretch.

 

Wouldn't have done 5m - Fifty didn't even manage to do that - dropped from 4.5m to 3m - thinking 365 might have had a shot at 3m, but that's it - something doing great on streaming doesn't necessarily mean it will be a blockbuster in cinema.

 

Well - today the cinemas are absolutely and completely dead - at least in northern Germany - not surprising 38-39°C is just way to hot.

 

 

Edited July 20, 2022 by Taruseth

[Aristis]

3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

50 shades was fuelled by BDSM parts etc. (women and couples watching it) - TGM is fuelled my the military of another country - not exactly a great selling point in Germany. Furthermore the pandemic seems to hurt to  certain degree even now and on top of that the german market is in a slow decline, that has been going on for pretty much two decades.

And Germany always had an interesting choice of movies that do well - should look into the 70s or so - when sex education movies did really well (I don't know what decade exactly) - and calling them sex education movies is also a stretch.

 

Wouldn't have done 5m - Fifty didn't even manage to do that - dropped from 4.5m to 3m - thinking 365 might have had a shot at 3m, but that's it - something doing great on streaming doesn't necessarily mean it will be a blockbuster in cinema.

 

Well - today the cinemas are absolutely and completely dead - at least in northern Germany - not surprising 38-39°C is just way to hot.

 

 

Yeah, movies like Schulmädchenreport are probably more exploitation than education, and there are dozens and dozens of them... 😶

[Brainbug]

Germans like 3 things:

 

1) Bad Comedys.

2) Bad Sex movies.
3) Bad animated movies.

 

Thats it. Thats literally it.