pepsa Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Is it the biggest weekend of the year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 in US$? yes. in admissions? not yet decided, might drop to MJ1 numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 in US$? yes. in admissions? not yet decided, might drop to MJ1 numbers. Do you think their is an posibilety that the numbers go up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 frankly, no - I just hope they don't go down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 (edited) frankly, no - I just hope they don't go down Can you go see it a few more times to get those numbers up? Edited December 12, 2014 by pepsa 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 hey don't be pessimistic. Hobbit 3 has holidays to help it too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leyla Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Can you go see it a few more times to get those numbers up? yes please do IndustriousAngel ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 truth be told, I'll go watch it maybe once more with my son but that's about it I guess. (Of course I'll buy the EE bluray once it's out and I'll bet it's a better paced film, too, just as with Hobbit 1 + 2) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Fri + Sat business seems very good, might be better than H1 and 2 even without previews / midnights. Some late afternoon and evening shows even approach sellout situations (meaning >75% seats sold) which is extremely rare for a 3D spectacle. (I wouldn't want those seats for free ...) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 That is great! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Trend 2: TH3 1.4 mil -1.5M 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Final weekend trend - looks as if Hobbit3 will be on the higher end of expectations. #1: Hobbit3 - 1.5mil admissions #2: Paddington - 250k (-10%) #3: MJ1 - 210k (-50%) #4: Penguins - 175k (-30%) 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 (edited) In Austria and Germany, biggest 2014 opening for Hobbit3 is already confirmed (in admissions, too), in Austria Fri-Sun was about 15% higher than Hobbit2; should be at about 175k admissions including midnights and triple features. Edited December 15, 2014 by IndustriousAngel 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Germany's Top 20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total drop week 1 The Hobbit 3 1.277.623 930 1.374 1.523.147 - 1 2 Paddington 247.291 593 417 584.291 -11 2 3 Mockingjay 1 218.912 627 349 3.168.477 -46 4 4 Penguins from Madagascar 176.792 717 247 910.138 -29 3 5 Alles ist Liebe 75.191 535 141 230.093 -12 2 6 Kill the Boss 2 43.938 416 106 260.800 -38 3 7 Interstellar 41.757 298 140 1.480.804 -48 6 8 Magic in the Moonlight 29.971 148 203 93.155 -26 2 9 Die Mannschaft 21.817 428 51 880.829 -48 5 10 The Loft 19.773 86 230 41.523 - 1 11 A Walk Among the Tombstones 16.368 249 66 384.862 -50 5 12 The Hobbit 2 15.518 133 117 6.092.890 - 53 13 The Hobbit 1 15.400 129 119 6.689.043 - 105 14 Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au Bon Dieu? 10.909 176 62 3.621.011 -24 21 15 Men, Women & Children 8.826 116 76 10.105 - 1 16 Mr. Turner 7.478 139 54 158.696 -20 6 17 Deliha (KS) 7.431 53 140 71.491 -41 5 18 Dumb and Dumber To 6.833 186 37 396.250 -65 5 19 Das Salz der Erde 6.677 72 93 104.348 -5 7 20 Im Labyrinth des Schweigens 6.338 121 52 178.442 -42 6 Well, that was one strong weekend. But keep in mind that Hobbit3 had the highest theater count of the century so far, the PTA is in fact a little lower than Hobbit2's (1441), but higher than Hobbit1 (1.237). With previews and triple features (H1+2 made it to #13 and 12, respectively!) the total after the first Sunday is now clearly ahead of Hobbit1 (1.238.666 admissions) and Hobbit2 (1.259.086). Even with steeper drops, 6mil total are looking very good - especially with the strong Sunday numbers that seem to indicate good WOM. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Friday trend on insidekino.de for Germany's weekend: #1: Hobbit3 - 925k admissions (<30%, >2.8mil total) #2: Paddington - 250k (flat again, wow!) #3: NatMuseum2 - 225k (not really good) #4: Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss - 150k (children's book adaption, should stay flat over the holidays) #5: Penguins - 125k (-30%) To put Hobbit3's number into context: Hobbit1 in its 2nd weekend had 1,04mil admissions, Hobbit2 982k. H2 was at 2,65mil admissions after weekend 2, H1 at 2,73mil. So, H3 is still ahead by at least 100k but it has to do good again in weekend 3 for the 6mil goal. Paddington had not that much of an opening, but very stable numbers which might even increase a bit next weekend! Penguins otoh are dropping fast. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Friday trend on insidekino.de for Germany's weekend: #1: Hobbit3 - 925k admissions (<30%, >2.8mil total) #2: Paddington - 250k (flat again, wow!) #3: NatMuseum2 - 225k (not really good) #4: Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss - 150k (children's book adaption, should stay flat over the holidays) #5: Penguins - 125k (-30%) To put Hobbit3's number into context: Hobbit1 in its 2nd weekend had 1,04mil admissions, Hobbit2 982k. H2 was at 2,65mil admissions after weekend 2, H1 at 2,73mil. So, H3 is still ahead by at least 100k but it has to do good again in weekend 3 for the 6mil goal. Paddington had not that much of an opening, but very stable numbers which might even increase a bit next weekend! Penguins otoh are dropping fast. Trend II: Hobbit3:900k Paddington:250k NATM3:225k Penguins:150k Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss:140k 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Final trend, not so good for most releases #1: Hobbit3 - 900k admissions (<30%) #2: Paddington - 200k (-20%, still impressive but far from flat) #3: NatMuseum2 - 200k (and that's including previews) #4: MJ1 - 150k (-30%, not enough for 2014's nr.1 total) #5: Penguins - 120k (-30%) #6: Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss - 120k 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 H3 seems to have done about 975k admissions for the weekend, a bit better than estimates - Sunday must have been really strong. 975k for H3 are a little bit higher than last year's H2 numbers for the corresponding weekend, together with the massive start that means it still has a comfortable lead on parts 1+2, 6mil total are very probable. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leyla Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 aw its up from estimates almost everywhere (OS) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total drop week 1 The Hobbit 3 975.064 930 1.048 2.896.624 -24 2 2 Night at the Museum 2 231.219 579 399 231.219 - 1 3 Paddington 211.360 668 316 853.572 -15 3 4 Mockingjay 1 169.396 574 295 3.470.910 -23 5 5 Penguins from Madagascar 124.398 714 174 1.074.080 -30 4 6 Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss 108.415 458 237 129.033 - 1 7 Alles ist Liebe 76.465 541 141 341.229 +2 3 8 Interstellar 36.008 239 151 1.533.684 -14 7 9 Kill the Boss 2 35.292 291 121 307.864 -20 4 10 The Loft 22.043 94 235 70.247 +12 2 11 Magic in the Moonlight 20.830 147 142 127.015 -31 3 12 Die Mannschaft 14.660 359 41 900.296 -33 6 13 Clouds of Sils Maria 13.879 51 272 18.655 - 1 14 The Homesman 13.278 73 182 25.147 - 1 15 A Walk Among the Tombstones 12.833 159 81 401.698 -22 6 16 Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au Bon Dieu? 12.358 177 70 3.638.965 +13 22 17 Hadi Insallah 11.985 30 400 11.985 - 1 18 Serena 7.630 86 89 17.683 - 1 19 Im Labyrinth des Schweigens 7.597 117 65 192.478 +20 7 20 Mr. Turner 6.090 129 47 168.857 -19 7 That's very nice for most holdovers, H3 still in lead over H1 and 2. MJ1 is closing in on QecqoafaBD but will be overtaken by H3. (H3 crossed 3mil on Monday with more than 200k admissions again) Outlook for this week and next weekend: Many schools are closed for holidays so basically holiday weekdays have already started. Expect very strong weekdays (except 24th of course) and also a very strong next weekend, especially for family stuff. There are some interesting openers, too: - Exodus: If the US numbers are any inidcation, we can't expect blockbuster numbers from it - I sure don't, but 300k admissions might be possible with Ridley Scott's name attached and the wide release. - Bibi & Tina 2: After the success of part one, this one could open to more than 200k, maybe even more - other family films will be seriously hurt. Part1 sailed past 1mil total, and part2 should improve on that. - Honig im Kopf: Til Schweiger's latest - hard to gauge, especially in a narrow market with all those other attractive releases. But 2-3mil total are in play, depending on quality (co-star Didi Hallervorden was on of my big surprises of last year, "Sein letztes Rennen" was among may absolute top films from 2013 - great performance!). More than 500k admissions opening! - The Theory of Everything: Hawking is a household name of course, but I see a very limited audience for this. - The Hobbit 3: Hobbit 1 + 2 increased on their respective 3rd weekends; With Exodus and HiK as strong openres, it's possible that H3 fails to do so but I still see it north of 900k admissions and winner of the weekend. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...