takerowns Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yes. then why did dos make 88 million dollars in germany but 76 million dolllars for bofta? since u said bofta is going to beat dos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 then why did dos make 88 million dollars in germany but 76 million dolllars for bofta? since u said bofta is going to beat dos The Euro has fallen by that much. (Since BotFA is about half an hour shorter it may also be that in some theaters, ticket prices are 50c cheaper than they were for DoS, but that should be countered by an overall slight rise in ticket prices) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 First weekend trend: #1: HiK - 475k (-20%, already over 4mil total) #2: BH6 - 400-600k (incl. previews) better opening than I expected, maybe even a lot better! #3: FMmw - 140k (+20%, nice) #4/5/6 Taken3, Ouija and Mortdecai with 125k each (both openers below my expectations, Taken -50%) #7: ImitationGame - 115k (good for the only 165 theaters it's in) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 First weekend trend: #1: HiK - 475k (-20%, already over 4mil total) #2: BH6 - 400-600k (incl. previews) better opening than I expected, maybe even a lot better! #3: FMmw - 140k (+20%, nice) #4/5/6 Taken3, Ouija and Mortdecai with 125k each (both openers below my expectations, Taken -50%) #7: ImitationGame - 115k (good for the only 165 theaters it's in) Where can HiK land in terms of admissions? With those drops I think it should reach 6 million. Amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 then why did dos make 88 million dollars in germany but 76 million dolllars for bofta? since u said bofta is going to beat dos With today euro/dollar exchange rate, DOS would have done about $74m, so yes, BOFA wins. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Where can HiK land in terms of admissions? With those drops I think it should reach 6 million. Amazing. I see it overtaking Hobbit3 for #1 of 2014 - which would mean about 6,2mil - but how much higher can it go? There's a real possibility for it to hit 7mil. If the estimate holds, it will be the highest-grossing 5th weekend ever for a german movie, so there's really no telling where it may stop. And this against 5 semi-to-wide openers and an expanding comedy (Frau Müller muss weg) which targets exactly the same demo. This is really an extraordinary number! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I see it overtaking Hobbit3 for #1 of 2014 - which would mean about 6,2mil - but how much higher can it go? There's a real possibility for it to hit 7mil. If the estimate holds, it will be the highest-grossing 5th weekend ever for a german movie, so there's really no telling where it may stop. And this against 5 semi-to-wide openers and an expanding comedy (Frau Müller muss weg) which targets exactly the same demo. This is really an extraordinary number! That is what it is great to see about runs like this: how unpredictable it is 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 That is what it is great to see about runs like this: how unpredictable it is Exactly. If you look back at MarkG2 2014 prognosis, you'll see that he bullseyed Hobbit3 and MJ1 - it's always easier with franchises - but he completely missed "Honig im Kopf" which will probably be #1 with about 6,5mil admissions (he had it pegged at 1,8mil, see his predictions for 4th quarter down that page) and also 2014's nr.4, "Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au Bon Dieu" which he didn't have in his list at all, meaning <1mil admissions, where in reality it made more than 3,7mil (and is still in some theaters). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 HiK seems to be the German equivalent of American Sniper in terms of box office. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 HiK seems to be the German equivalent of American Sniper in terms of box office. Not really, no - the opening was good but in no way exceptional. It's the holds that wow. Maybe a good comparison in the US would be the run of "Gone Girl", which went from a sub-40mil opening to nearly 170mil total. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Big Hero 6 being a success in Germany? Ich liebe das! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 yep, BH6 does better than I expected; still hard to estimate because there are so little presales for family movies, it's walk-in or nothing. With holidays coming, expect a good multiplier - 2mil total or more are very possible with this kind of opening. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 final weekend trend: #1: HiK - 450k admissions #2: BH6 - 450k #3: Taken3 - 140k #4: FMmw - 125k #5/6: Ouija / Mortdecai, 125k each #7: ImitationGame - 110k #8: LbC - 90k 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 How close to breaking 6m admissions is BOFA? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Should be at about 5,93mil admissions with Sunday. Hobbit2 after week 7 was at 5,83, so still 100k ahead. It might hit the 6mil next weekend with a good hold but I think rather the weekend after. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total drop week 1 Honig im Kopf 455.614 791 576 4.105.147 -24 5 2 Big Hero 6 373.726 580 644 429.812 - 1 3 Taken 3 134.577 506 266 933.481 -44 3 4 Mortdecai 125.035 487 257 128.672 - 1 5 Ouija 122.166 259 472 129.552 - 1 6 Frau Müller muss weg 119.107 223 534 291.508 +2 2 7 The Imitation Game 96.556 170 568 112.016 - 1 8 Let's Be Cops 92.000 413 223 535.765 -42 3 9 Bibi & Tina 2 69.227 686 101 1.007.795 -33 5 10 The Hobbit 3 64.347 421 153 5.942.206 -51 7 11 3 Türken & ein Baby 50.701 188 270 60.969 - 1 12 Paddington 42.606 594 72 1.811.158 -39 8 13 Wild 36.208 120 302 102.956 -21 2 14 Annie 35.995 401 90 115.129 -43 2 15 Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss 31.838 504 63 678.866 -34 6 16 Ask Sana Benzer 25.516 39 654 25.516 - 1 17 The Theory of Everything 24.889 237 105 416.111 -36 5 18 Unbroken 22.646 327 69 104.317 -64 2 19 Penguins from Madagascar 19.597 340 58 1.574.747 -46 9 20 Mucize - Wunder 19.422 70 277 196.332 -44 4 Good opening for BH6, should enjoy a healthy run! Mortedai weak but not as complete a flop as in the USA. Ouija with a good PTA, might have a good hold next weekend. Imitation Game with a fine PTA but won't expand much. The big story atm is still "Honig im Kopf", again nr.1 with a fine hold and already over 4mil admissions total. Last week's "Unbroken" and "Annie" are dropping like stones, I guess none will remain in the charts next weekend. "Frau Müller muss weg" otoh should see another slight expansion; I don't believe it will manage another increase but the drop should be slight. Next weekend: "Birdman", "John Wick", domestic comedy "Da muss Mann durch", "The Pyramid" - I see no breakouts among openers, "Honig im Kopf" is a safe bet as nr.1. For families: "Fünf Freunde 4", already the fourth entry in this very reliable franchise, will have the usual opening and set its sights to 1mil total once more; B&T2 has already crossed that treshold this weekend. A word on "Penguins from Madagascar": I don't know what went wrong here, I thought this was a candidate for 3mil admissions and now it has barely crossed 1,5. In Austria, it is near 300k admissions - that's ok (and much better than Paddington), so why didn't it work inGermany?! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 First weekend trend for Germany: #1: HiK - 350k admissions (-25%) #2: BH6 - 275k (-25%) #3/4: openers "John Wick" and "Fünf Freunde 4" with 215k each #5: FMmw - 125k (+5%, sleeper hit - a million, here we come!) That's not bad for "John Wick" - no hit but decent for a basically no-name production. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Final weekend trend: #1: HiK - 350k admissions (-25%) #2: BH6 - 300k (-20%) #3: FF4 - 175k #4: JW - 170k #5: FMmw - 105k (-10%) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total drop week 1 Honig im Kopf 357.789 790 453 4.625.016 -22 6 2 Big Hero 6 289.463 606 478 774.575 -23 2 3 Fünf Freunde 4 173.706 560 310 175.006 - 1 4 John Wick 141.537 304 466 169.938 - 1 5 Frau Müller muss weg 112.157 308 364 447.754 -6 3 6 The Imitation Game 93.307 218 428 243.769 -3 2 7 Ouija 84.946 310 274 236.024 -31 2 8 Taken 3 74.085 531 140 1.035.486 -45 4 9 Mortdecai 69.024 485 142 230.560 -45 2 10 Birdman 66.234 116 571 83.811 - 1 11 Let's Be Cops 59.861 389 154 610.761 -35 4 12 Bibi & Tina 2 50.996 641 80 1.066.870 -26 6 13 Da muss Mann durch 47.304 329 144 64.728 - 1 14 3 Türken & ein Baby 43.800 198 221 118.306 -14 2 15 The Hobbit 3 36.813 300 123 5.994.865 -43 8 16 Paddington 32.334 491 66 1.848.649 -24 9 17 Wild 25.714 130 198 143.128 -29 3 18 Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss 25.355 443 57 708.015 -20 7 19 Annie 23.806 382 62 144.012 -34 3 20 Ask Sana Benzer (AFM) 21.991 58 379 53.952 -14 2 Overall not a very good weekend (not unusual for the season), but "Honig im Kopf" scored the highest 6th weekend ever for a german production! "The Hobbit 3" was only 5.000 admissions away from 6mil by Sunday and must have passed the mark by now - congratulations! "Frau Müller muss weg" with its first drop but still good PTA, a million total is still possible. "The Imitation Game" also with a nice hold, but won't reach a million, which "Taken 3" crossed this weekend. The openers: "John Wick" ok but lower than estimates, won't expand much I guess. "FF4" a bit lower than usual for the franchise but 1mil total should still be doable. "Birdman" had the highest PTA and should get a slight expansion bext weekend, with Oscar buzz and good wom (at least in my show everybody was impressed) I think a million might be in play, but in no way sure. Next weekend: A bunch of interesting releases, even if none of them goes really wide. Opening are, among others: Jupiter Ascending, The Interview, Blackhat, Foxcatcher, and german/turkish comedy "300 Worte Deutsch". That's a lot of new and interesting stuff on screen and accordingly there'll be many victims, except among family stuff for which there's nothing new. "Honig im Kopf" however should stay on top even if it falls below 300k, I see none of the openers crossing 200k (well, there's a, say, 30% chance for JA, colourful SF works sometimes but I just don't feel any buzz for it) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dingdong123 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Are those BH6 numbers good or bad? Like, can it reach $20M based on current trends? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...