IndustriousAngel Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 I had hoped for a 30% drop since it's clear it doesn't behave like the other Potter movies ... the first weekend gave me hopes that this would be a bit leggier. But overall business was down this weekend so I think 3mil total is completely possible with a few better weekends ahead, also it should be in theaters until long after the holidays. I'd say chances at >3mil are better than <3mil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 12 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Of course, if you're only interested in records and blockbusters, then 2016 must be one of the most boring years in history It's so frustrating to see every weekend down compared to the previous year Sadly I missed the great years for Cinema in Germany... But so I missed the collapsing too, which probably isn't so bad But I asked myself if this year can get 120M admissions... But when you're saying it wasn't that bad this year - maybe I have a false memory about it? When I'm not mistaken the first quarter had about 14% less than last year (the second seems worse to me) and that 14% decrease would get the year to 119,7M. (Hopefully I'm mistaken ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Aristis said: It's so frustrating to see every weekend down compared to the previous year Sadly I missed the great years for Cinema in Germany... But so I missed the collapsing too, which probably isn't so bad But I asked myself if this year can get 120M admissions... But when you're saying it wasn't that bad this year - maybe I have a false memory about it? When I'm not mistaken the first quarter had about 14% less than last year (the second seems worse to me) and that 14% decrease would get the year to 119,7M. (Hopefully I'm mistaken ) I am hoping for SW R1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 (edited) The Thursday estimates via insidekino.de (forum): New Releases: Robbi, Tobbi und das Fliewatüüt: ?k (starts in 506 theaters, ok reviews) Underworld 5: 16k (443, bad to ok reviews) – a quite ok start Sully: 8.5k (360, mixed to very good reviews) - hopefully it will find its audience over the weeks. It was always clear that if this movie becomes a hit here in Germany it will be through its legs and not because of great admissions on the first day or weekend Morgan: ?k (ca. 55, not even so bad reviews) Marie Curie: ?k (ca. 57, quite good reviews) Holdovers: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: 33k (Last Thursday 60k) – probably underestimated for the third time, so don't worry already Hartmanns: 19.5k (30k) - again a good hold but it's obviously slowing down Arrival: 13k (21k) Florence Foster Jenkins: 6.5k (6.5k) – a very good hold is coming Doctor Strange: 4k (6.5k) Jack Reacher 2: 2.5k (?k) Deepwater Horizon: 2k (6k) Edited December 1, 2016 by el sid 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 Underworld - better than feared, though it remains to be seen how frontloaded it is. Sully is just as doomed as Deepwater Horizon last week, the story was just not that big here, but maybe it can cash in on better wom. I'm glad about FFJs hold, I liked that movie and it seems to have very good wom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 First estimates from insidekino.de: #1: FB - 375k (-30%) #2: WbdH - 160k (-30%) #3: Arrival - 115k (-20%) Best opener - Underworld5 with 75k; Sully 60k 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 So nice holds but a very disappointing weekend for the new releases. Some actuals: FB: 40k Hartmanns: 20k Arrival: 15.5k Underworld 5: 12.5k – lower than the estimate but still, only 75k OW? So Mark_G must think that it will be very frontloaded Sully: 8.5k Robbi, Tobbi und das Fliewatüüt: 2.5k – a 40-65k OW is projected at the moment Marie Curie: 1.5k 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Hm. So if FB isn't hit too hard by SWit still could do 3M... I'd say it'll hit that number Hartmanns can do it, too. Trolls, as the 27th movie of the year, crossed 1M admissions. Last year we had 33. 4 more will probably do it(Sing, SW, Vaiana, Vier gegen die Bank) so we're at 31. That's not that much less. I do not have high hopes for the year, yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Normally I don't post them and as always, these numbers are only estimates but today they show some pretty fine improvements. These are the Friday estimates: Underworld 5: 26k (this film was overestimated a little bit yesterday, so take this number with a grain of salt too) Sully: 21.5k (not bad at all if this number holds) FB: 91k (!) - and this movie was underestimated yesterday/always Hartmanns: 47k Arrival: 31.5k Jack Reacher 2: 10k - that would be a great increase from yesterday (with 2.5k) too FFJ: 7.5k Doctor Strange: 5k Deepwater Horizon: 4.5k 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 FB will be at over 2.1m, coming from a 375k weekend. This should work out in the end I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 Saturday update - no big changes (WbdH a bit better) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 Saturday update - no big changes (WbdH a bit better) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 4, 2016 Author Share Posted December 4, 2016 Final trend still stable: #1: FB - 375k (-30%) #2: WbdH - 175k (-25%) #3: Arrival - 110k (-20%) #4: Underworld - 75k #5: Sully - 62k #6/7: Trolls / Petterson&Findus with 50k each (-25% for Trolls, P&F a bit up from last weekend) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 #1: FB - 385k /2,175Mio #2: WbdH - 175k /2,32Mio #3: Arrival - 105k #4: Underworld - 75k #5: Sully - 67,5k #6/7: Trolls / Petterson&Findus with 50k each 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 6, 2016 Author Share Posted December 6, 2016 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Fantastic Beasts 386.056 767 503 2.179.978 22.140.058 -28 3 2 Willkommen bei den Hartmanns 177.430 727 244 2.319.057 18.884.527 -24 5 3 Arrival 108.241 441 245 320.629 2.667.301 -22 2 4 Underworld 5 76.591 442 173 76.591 833.233 - 1 5 Sully 64.396 358 180 73.328 621.920 - 1 6 Trolls 51.191 592 86 1.053.512 7.658.570 -22 7 7 Pettersson & Findus - Weihnachten 50.232 656 77 354.805 2.240.372 +4 5 8 Florence Foster Jenkins 39.910 196 204 110.690 909.413 -4 2 9 Robbi, Tobbi und das Fliewatüüt 37.303 515 72 44.708 284.447 - 1 10 Doctor Strange 27.888 293 95 1.420.761 15.543.589 -42 6 11 Jack Reacher 2 22.418 363 62 432.641 3.711.013 -50 4 12 Deepwater Horizon 20.668 360 57 101.087 759.331 -52 2 13 Ikinci Sans 17.048 59 289 46.816 430.451 -20 2 14 Findet Dory 16.869 396 43 3.755.857 31.381.544 -35 10 15 Paterson 15.213 117 130 86.535 669.270 -24 3 16 Görümce 15.042 34 442 15.042 137.137 - 1 17 Die Weihnachtsgeschichte 13.180 214 62 20.754 +86 2 18 Dag II 11.602 46 252 11.602 116.850 - 1 19 I, Daniel Blake 10.791 102 106 38.860 287.593 -25 2 20 Marie Curie 10.430 55 190 12.837 97.883 - 1 It was not the weekend of the openers, but holdovers had some very nice drops (and both christmas-themed movies an increase). Who would have thought that Florence Foster Jenkins will end up with double the admissions of Deepwater Horizon? Fantastic Beasts has found ist stride and is on ist way to well above 3mil total, with holidays on the horizon it might even develop towards 4mil. Next weekend: The biggest openers are family stuff: Vampirschwestern 3 and Sing - both will probably put the final nails in Dory's coffin. I don't think Sing will reach Pet's numbers but I'm hoping for more than 500k admissions, as I do for Vampirschwestern3 - so the fight for #1 is hot! Jaques Cousteau biopic L'Odyssée is another interesting opener but probably not much more of a success than this week's Marie Curie. Then there's Office Christmas Party - after Bad Santa 2 flopped that hard, maybe this one can profit from the empty comedy market (Willkommen bei den Hartmanns will be in ist 6th weekend and is losing steam) and I'm hoping for, say, 200k OW and some good legs with its christmas party theme. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 (edited) 12 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: So where do you see FB ending in US dollars? Edited December 6, 2016 by FantasticBeasts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 33 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said: So where do you see FB ending in US dollars? 40M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: 40M. Well, that's great isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 5 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said: Well, that's great isn't it? The last HP did - according to BOM - $78M. So I would consider $40M a good result. (I think it could do $35M to $45M, we will see how much it will be affected by RO and how much Holiday can help to boost it) I'll hope for €40M because than it's joining this great list: http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DAlltime100bo.htm 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 hmmmm ... for a (hopefully) >500k opener, Sing looks awfully empty as of now. The again, it's the scourge of family movies that nearly no-one buys tickets in advance, it's as if parents don't give a shit about if their offspring get decent seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...