George Parr Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Giesi said: so I would say 1,650-1,675M admissions for Ep8, bigger drop than I expected (based on the prequel trilogy) but the total is gonna be bigger than Ep2 and Ep3, easily The fact that it is opening lower than any of the prequels seemed curious to me as well, but I think this might actually have something to do with something that goes beyond the movie itself. Looking at the alltime leaders in openings, there is a ton of stuff that opened in the 2000s, especially the early part of the decade, but since then there have only been a handful truly big ones. The one truly big difference has been the number of theaters in which the movies started. There used to be 1000-1300 theaters for the big ones, now its in the 800 range. Now, theaters may have become bigger, so the number of screens may not be all that different, but it could very well be that you simply cannot reach the same audience anymore. Most huge cinemas are focused in the big cities, while the cinemas that got lost are probably the smaller ones, which in many cases would have been in smaller cities and towns. Losing cinemas in a big city doesn't have as much of an effect, because there are still plenty of other ones, but if small towns lose their only cinema, people have to travel more to see movies. It doesn't prevent huge openings, but maybe it takes away a few 100k here and there. Hence starts not matching what they made in the early parts of the last decade. TLJ was very likely to drop from TFA anyway, but maybe with 1000+ theaters it could have opened to the same numbers as ROTS. And who knows, maybe TFA could have broken the record if it had played in more theaters as well. Ticket prices may be another reason. They are reaching more and more absurd levels every year. I mean, paying €17+ for a movie goes beyond anything that is reasonable. Edited December 17, 2017 by George Parr 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 1,62mil according to insidekino - not bad at all, but the drop from Ep7 was steeper than we hoped, so this continues the 2017 line of not-as-strong-as-should-be blockbusters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: 1,62mil according to insidekino - not bad at all, but the drop from Ep7 was steeper than we hoped, so this continues the 2017 line of not-as-strong-as-should-be blockbusters. Maybe anecdotical, but the biggest auditorium in my cinema could only show The Last Jedi two times a day because of the longer running time, compared to the 3 showings of Episode 7 two years ago. Maybe Episode 8 will be a bit more backloaded than TFA (or so i hope). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Star Wars Ep8 1.627.277 814 1.999 1.627.277 19.755.398 - 1 2 Coco 108.420 622 174 527.341 4.274.379 -30 3 3 Ferdinand 102.182 603 169 104.288 782.114 - 1 4 Paddington 2 80.624 680 119 696.510 4.744.176 -26 4 5 Murder in the Orient Express 59.225 619 96 1.125.615 9.913.266 -29 6 6 Fack Ju Göhte 3 50.387 575 88 5.841.756 51.007.395 -33 8 7 Daddy's Home 2 41.366 334 124 131.966 1.051.797 -31 2 8 The Star 35.039 386 91 107.577 695.825 -29 2 9 Ayla 27.690 54 513 61.041 562.664 +22 2 10 The Mountain Between Us 25.624 281 91 76.955 658.250 -31 2 11 Bad Moms 2 24.372 320 76 767.310 6.558.192 -30 6 12 Aus dem Nichts 23.936 226 106 240.982 2.033.793 -20 4 13 Augsburger Puppenkiste: Weihnachtsmann … 18.201 430 42 49.084 280.318 +24 3 14 Burg Schreckenstein 2 16.053 418 38 47.183 304.799 -30 2 15 Un Beau Soleil Intérieur 13.490 71 190 15.224 119.457 - 1 16 Justice League 10.463 289 36 612.081 6.418.112 -74 5 17 Madame 9.940 113 88 60.753 488.054 -32 3 18 Flatliners 9.856 288 34 100.703 798.666 -52 3 19 Happy Death Day 9.827 222 44 340.609 2.846.948 -58 5 20 Girls Trip 9.658 242 40 95.235 793.064 -51 3 A good but not stellar (except ticket prices) opening for Star Wars Episode 8, and decent holds for family stuff. Hit hardest by SW8 was Justice League which imploded. Next weekend: There are three potential hits for the chrismas weekend: Jumanji, Pitch Perfect 3 and domestic comedy Dieses bescheuerte Herz, all with the potential to at least break 1mil total. I'd say PP3 has the best shot at #2, with SW8 the obvious weekend winner - add the still attractive family releases and we'll see a serious screen allocation fight. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 With SW in Germany not meeting expectations/trends to a certain degree, whether it’s TFA, RO1 or now TLJ, could DBH be the number one movie this weekend? People seemed to love the trailer in theatres. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 (edited) On 19.12.2017 at 7:29 PM, Giesi said: With SW in Germany not meeting expectations/trends to a certain degree, whether it’s TFA, RO1 or now TLJ, could DBH be the number one movie this weekend? People seemed to love the trailer in theatres. Edit: Assumed a drop a bit worse than that of SW 7 that still seems too be unlikely. But IMO DBH has much potential for good legs. Originally I thought that the next Elyas M'Barek film in a row could be too much (the third counted with Paddington 2) but the trailer is (at least for a German film) indeed not bad and also pretty clever constructed and seems to get really positive reactions in theaters. The reviews are pretty mixed so far but for sure not that bad that they would deter interested moviegoers. From reservations I couldn't evaluate it but Jumanji gets positive reviews in Germany too. Pitch Perfect 3 is rated pretty mediocre at the moment. All three new releases will start in more than 500 theaters. Edited December 20, 2017 by el sid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Comedies tend to be leggier than action but with smaller openings so I think #1 for the weekend is pretty much guarateed for SW8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Why didn‘t TFA gain any admissions on insidekino through double features? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 (edited) Some Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum: The new releases (all numbers look decent): Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 44k (the translation would ca. be „This stupid heart“, a film about the friendship between a wealthy spoiled young man and a very ill boy, released in 590 theaters, very mixed reviews between 3.5 and 8/10) Jumanji: 45k (522, overall good reviews) Pitch Perfect 3: 74k (500, modest and mediocre reviews) The holdovers:SW 8: 146k (actuals last Thursday 420k) – this estimate isn't reliable I guess because last Thursday was the official day of release plus in the South-West-report and also others it had a (much) better hold Murder on the Orient Express: 7k (7k) FJG 3: 3.5k (6k) Aus dem Nichts: 2k The Mountain Between Us: 1k Daddy‘s Home 2: 1k This weekend will be influenced by the fact that Christmas is a Sunday and almost all cinemas are closed and most shops too (till Wednesday) which means that many people will do their last panic-presents and food-purchases on Saturday and not be interested or have time to visit the theaters. OTOH if people are already in town maybe they combine shopping and cinema ;). Edited December 21, 2017 by el sid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, el sid said: Some Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum: The new releases (all numbers look decent): Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 44k (the translation would ca. be „This stupid heart“, a film about the friendship between a wealthy spoiled young man and a very ill boy, released in 590 theaters, very mixed reviews between 3.5 and 8/10) Jumanji: 45k (522, overall good reviews) Pitch Perfect 3: 74k (500, modest and mediocre reviews) The holdovers:SW 8: 146k (actuals last Thursday 420k) – this estimate isn't reliable I guess because last Thursday was the official day of release plus in the South-West-report and also others it had a (much) better hold Murder on the Orient Express: 7k (7k) FJG 3: 3.5k (6k) Aus dem Nichts: 2k The Mountain Between Us: 1k Daddy‘s Home 2: 1k This weekend will be influenced by the fact that Christmas is a Sunday and almost all cinemas are closed and most shops too (till Wednesday) which means that many people will do their last panic-presents and food-purchases on Saturday and not be interested or have time to visit the theaters. OTOH if people are already in town maybe they combine shopping and cinema ;). In my cinema the showings till the 23rd are selling so-so, but the week after Christmas is selling like crazy. Near sell-outs alone from reserved seating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, el sid said: Some Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum: The new releases (all numbers look decent): Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 44k (the translation would ca. be „This stupid heart“, a film about the friendship between a wealthy spoiled young man and a very ill boy, released in 590 theaters, very mixed reviews between 3.5 and 8/10) Jumanji: 45k (522, overall good reviews) Pitch Perfect 3: 74k (500, modest and mediocre reviews) The holdovers:SW 8: 146k (actuals last Thursday 420k) – this estimate isn't reliable I guess because last Thursday was the official day of release plus in the South-West-report and also others it had a (much) better hold Murder on the Orient Express: 7k (7k) FJG 3: 3.5k (6k) Aus dem Nichts: 2k The Mountain Between Us: 1k Daddy‘s Home 2: 1k This weekend will be influenced by the fact that Christmas is a Sunday and almost all cinemas are closed and most shops too (till Wednesday) which means that many people will do their last panic-presents and food-purchases on Saturday and not be interested or have time to visit the theaters. OTOH if people are already in town maybe they combine shopping and cinema ;). I really hope actuals are higher for SW 8. Murder on the Orient Express flat, that movie really has some legs. 6 minutes ago, Brainbug said: In my cinema the showings till the 23rd are selling so-so, but the week after Christmas is selling like crazy. Near sell-outs alone from reserved seating. I hope that translates to amazing numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Brainbug said: In my cinema the showings till the 23rd are selling so-so, but the week after Christmas is selling like crazy. Near sell-outs alone from reserved seating. Yes, this week will be a pleasure to report . PS: Me too. In other reports SW 8 declined by ca. 50% compared to last Thursday. I think it's just not needed to reservate or buy a ticket in advance because the film still gets so many showtimes where people can see that they have enough empty seats and so the estimate looks worse than it is. And Murder on the Orient Express is - as always - doing fine. Edited December 21, 2017 by el sid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 hours ago, Taruseth said: Murder on the Orient Express flat, that movie really has some legs. For me, that's the one positive surprise this quarter ... never would have thought this could pass 1mil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: For me, that's the one positive surprise this quarter ... never would have thought this could pass 1mil. Are Agatha Christie's novels popular in Germany? This movie seems to be doing really good in Europe. Disney (if the Fox acquisition pushes through) would be a fool if it won't green-light that Death on the Nile movie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, UserHN said: Are Agatha Christie's novels popular in Germany? This movie seems to be doing really good in Europe. Disney (if the Fox acquisition pushes through) would be a fool if it won't green-light that Death on the Nile movie. I think so. And the old Miss Marple films are regularly broadcasted in the prime time - with surprisingly nice TV-ratings also in the younger target group . The first trend (remember that on Sunday cinemas are closed so its only a 3/4 weekend): #1 SW 8: 750k / 2.87M total with Sunday, better said Saturday; the actual admissions were, as expected, better yesterday, 185k #2 Pitch Perfect 3: 225k; was overestimated big time yesterday and had only 55k admissions #3 Jumanji: 215k; 46k admissions yesterday #4 Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 200k; 40k yesterday #5 Ferdinand: 55k; 14k yesterday or Paddington: 50k; 13.5k yesterday or Coco: 45k; 13.5k yesterday Edited December 22, 2017 by el sid 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, el sid said: The first trend (remember that on Sunday cinemas are closed so its only a 3/4 weekend): #1 SW 8: 750k / 2.87M total with Sunday, better said Saturday; the actual admissions were, as expected, better yesterday, 185k That definitely looks better. Do any of you know how many admissions Rogue One and The Force Awakens (or any other big Christmas Blockbuster) sold on Christmas eve. The nearest Cinema is open Sunday morning and has sold 156 ads. till now compared to 581 on the 23rd (75% drop) So a weekend (to get to 750K) could look like: 185k + 250k + 260k + 55k ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 hours ago, Taruseth said: That definitely looks better. Do any of you know how many admissions Rogue One and The Force Awakens (or any other big Christmas Blockbuster) sold on Christmas eve. The nearest Cinema is open Sunday morning and has sold 156 ads. till now compared to 581 on the 23rd (75% drop) So a weekend (to get to 750K) could look like: 185k + 250k + 260k + 55k ? Haven't found anything about specific daily numbers for christmas eve, but Rogue One had 450k for the weekend, with 150k coming from Thursday. Going from there, one can assume that Friday probably wasn't lower than that, probably a bit higher even, so the 24th and 25th made at best 1/3 of the weekend total, and likely quite a bit less. If I had to guess, I'd say christmas eve would have 30-50k at the most, with the lower end being more likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 hours ago, George Parr said: Haven't found anything about specific daily numbers for christmas eve, but Rogue One had 450k for the weekend, with 150k coming from Thursday. Going from there, one can assume that Friday probably wasn't lower than that, probably a bit higher even, so the 24th and 25th made at best 1/3 of the weekend total, and likely quite a bit less. If I had to guess, I'd say christmas eve would have 30-50k at the most, with the lower end being more likely. Thanks, so TLJ most likely will just make 20-50k on Christmas Eve. In the local cinema they have the same times of shows on saturday and monday, that is surprising to say the least. So I assume that most of this went on the 25th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2nd trend is up, with some minor changes: #1 SW8 750k #2 Jumanji 210k #3 PP3 200k #4 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 200k #5 Ferdinand 65k #6 Paddington 2 55k #7 Coco 55k #8 Murder on the Orient Express 25k #9 FjG3 30k 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 PP3 seems rather frontloaded but 1mil should still be possible with holidays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...