George Parr Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 Monday numbers are in, and things look better than expected: #1 Jurassic World 2 325k (-43% / -49% with previews) #2 Deadpool 2 72.5k (-41%) #3 Solo 65k (-51%) #4 Papst Franziskus 45k #5 Hereditary 25k 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, George Parr said: Monday numbers are in, and things look better than expected: #1 Jurassic World 2 325k (-43% / -49% with previews) #2 Deadpool 2 72.5k (-41%) #3 Solo 65k (-51%) #4 Papst Franziskus 45k #5 Hereditary 25k Maybe some germans stopped watching the rather disappointing game and chose to go to the movies instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 What's up with BOM Germany's numbers, the one for Solo is to low, the one for JW2 is to high after the first weekend. JW2: 8.06M (TFSS) and WTFSS (10.9M) the TFSS number is correct, the 10.9M number is the one for the first full week with the Wednesday (so WTFSSMTW) And for Solo the Wednesday-previews are still missing They say it's at $12M while it actually is at $13M (as of June 10th) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 20, 2018 Author Share Posted June 20, 2018 Germany’s Top10 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Jurassic World 2 343.239 734 468 1.142.693 13.045.906 -40 2 2 Deadpool 2 72.220 592 122 1.954.926 17.815.321 -42 5 3 Solo 66.337 611 109 1.128.284 12.337.163 -50 4 4 Papst Franziskus 43.879 566 78 45.018 368.055 - 1 5 Hereditary 24.888 158 158 24.888 225.854 - 1 6 Avengers - Infinity War 18.764 366 51 3.304.876 37.064.550 -45 8 7 Luis & die Aliens 18.371 516 36 122.237 823.601 -10 4 8 Liliane Susewind 17.372 610 28 311.429 2.013.282 -16 6 9 Truth or Dare 14.443 315 46 444.966 3.765.501 -42 6 10 Every Day 13.044 321 41 90.867 701.556 -31 3 Not good at all but expected. Family stuff with good holds on a low level (further down the chart, Isle of Dogs had an increase!) Next weekend: Oceans 8 might be sensible counterprogramming to the World Cup, let’s see if it can deliver! Otherwise, Germany’s Saturday game will destroy that evening. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 The Saturday will become brutal, everyone who is at least slightly interested will watch the football match. At first sight you might think that boxoffice-wise it would be better if Germany loses but maybe then people are too depressed to do something else than sitting in the sun etc. At least for one or two weeks... And if they win, which I hope and think, maybe people are in a much better mood and are also in the right mood for some entertaining summer movies. As mentioned the third match of the German team is on the next Wednesday so no real problem. The Thursday estimates for the whole country look like that: The new releases: Ocean's 8: 30k – I would say that number is pretty ok or would be pretty ok with another weekend situation The Strangers 2: 1k Nicht ohne Eltern/Momo: under 1k The holdovers (mediocre): JW2: 22k (actuals last Thursday 45k) Solo: 7.5k (11k) DP2: 6.5k (13k) Pope Francis - A Man of His Word: 5k (10k) Hereditary: 2.5k (5k) Overboard: under 1k (1.5k) The South-West report counted today for JW2 504 admissions (last Thursday 967), for Solo 101 admissions (last week 245), DP2 had 122 admissions (312), A: IW had 34 (41) and Hereditary 49 (150) in the selected theaters. And the new releases: Ocean's 8 300, Momo 25 and The Strangers 2 20. → So JW 2 loses in both reports ca. 50%, with that Saturday that's not so good. The smaller new releases look very muted in this report too. Mark_G from insidekino.de predicts a minus of only 20% for JW 2, -35% for DP 2 and each 25% for Solo and A: IW this weekend. Ocean's 8 could have ca. 250-275k admissions. Both looks optimistic to me but maybe O8 had a lot of preview shows. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 What do you guys think for I2 bo potential? Over/under Dory? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Giesi said: What do you guys think for I2 bo potential? Over/under Dory? I'd like to say I have the feeling it could do more than 4M and actually increase from the 3,5M of the first one (it seems like a rare big Animation this year). But as you know, Germany likes underperforming, so I'd say under... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 But, to talk about the only bigger movie overperforming this year (maybe beside BP, that did great too): AIW with 3,305M is the third biggest SH-movie in Germany in admissions only behind SM1 5,19M and Superman (1979) 4,15M. It'll probably end with about 3,35M and €37,5M (up 38% and 33% from AoU). Its TP is actually down from €11,7 to €11,2 which is quite surprising... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 22, 2018 Author Share Posted June 22, 2018 First estimates are online, JW2 manages to stay on top if true: #1: JW2 - 175k admissions (-49%) #2: O8 - 160k incl. previews (don't know about Germany but we had some "Lady's Nights" #3: Solo - 45k #4: DP2 - 40k strange that Solo should overtake DP2 but on this low level estimates are unreliable ... 160k for Ocean's 8 seem mediocre, I was hoping it could take the top spot. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film: The new releases: Ocean's 8 (released in 636 theaters): 26.5k/255k US$ The Strangers 2 (210): 2.3k -> 15k OW predicted in the first trend Nicht ohne Eltern/Momo (109): under 1k -> only 2.5k OW The holdovers: JW2: 29k (actuals last Thursday 45k) - better than in the estimates DP2: 8k (13k) Solo: 7.2k (11k) Pope Francis - A Man of His Word: 7.1k (10k) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HH84 Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 On 6/22/2018 at 8:24 AM, IndustriousAngel said: First estimates are online, JW2 manages to stay on top if true: #1: JW2 - 175k admissions (-49%) #2: O8 - 160k incl. previews (don't know about Germany but we had some "Lady's Nights" #3: Solo - 45k #4: DP2 - 40k strange that Solo should overtake DP2 but on this low level estimates are unreliable ... 160k for Ocean's 8 seem mediocre, I was hoping it could take the top spot. I guess, it's because DP2 is a night movie and Germany plays tonight at 8 pm. Solo probably will be less effected by it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted June 23, 2018 Share Posted June 23, 2018 (edited) 2nd trend is up, with some improvements: #1 JW2 200k #2 Ocean's 8 175k #3 Solo 45k #4 Deadpool 2 42.5k #5 Papst Franziskus 35k As for Solo over Deadpool, I think Marc_G said something along the lines of Solo running better in the afternoon, while Deadpool works better in the evening. With Saturday evening destroyed by the Germany World Cup game, this would make it tougher for Deadpool compared to Solo. edit: ha, what a timing Edited June 23, 2018 by George Parr 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted June 24, 2018 Share Posted June 24, 2018 (edited) 3rd trend sees little change in the numbers. Deadpool 2 and Solo switch places and numbers, JW2 is up slightly: #1 JW2 210k #2 Ocean's 8 175k #3 Deadpool 2 45k #4 Solo 42.5k #5 Papst Franziskus 35k Edited June 24, 2018 by George Parr 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 25, 2018 Author Share Posted June 25, 2018 Actuals tomorrow but overall much better than estimates; while Sat evening was a disaster, a rainy Sunday helped limit the damage: #1 JW2 245k #2 Ocean's 8 190k (incl. prreviews) #3/4 DP2 / Solo 50k each #5 Papst Franziskus 45k 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 26, 2018 Author Share Posted June 26, 2018 Germany's Top12 (>10k adm.) last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Jurassic World 2 246.359 735 335 1.470.649 16.491.875 -28 3 2 Ocean's 8 161.893 636 255 197.013 1.707.529 - 1 3 Solo 49.444 509 97 1.204.720 13.115.678 -25 5 4 Deadpool 2 49.078 518 95 2.031.734 18.484.477 -32 6 5 Papst Franziskus 45.326 577 79 129.345 1.025.502 +3 2 6 Luis & die Aliens 32.418 524 62 158.572 1.060.354 +76 5 7 Liliane Susewind 30.921 588 53 345.642 2.229.234 +78 7 8 Hereditary 18.367 202 91 53.585 471.154 -26 2 9 Jim Knopf & Lukas 16.945 479 35 1.550.661 10.675.542 +94 13 10 The Strangers: Prey at Night 13.878 210 66 16.810 136.658 - 1 11 Avengers - Infinity War 13.244 261 51 3.324.982 37.266.440 -29 9 12 Every Day 10.373 284 37 106.553 816.336 -20 4 Well, it turned out better than expected - even a slight overall increase from last weekend thanks mainly to rainy weather and accordingly strong family shows. Ocean's 8 stayed a bit behind expectations but did basically ok. Holds were generally good, Jurassic World 2 has every chance to top 2mil total with no competition. Domestic children's book adaption Jim Knopf is showing excellent staying power, with end-of-school shows and possibly a good run during the OpenAir-season, it might crawl to 1,7mil total. Next weekend: No big openers, this week's two leaders should stay on top with hopefully good holds. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Should be interesting too see what has the bigger impact. On the positive side there is no Germany game next weekend, as Germany would play Monday or Tuesday if it advances. In theory that should ease the drop or lead to a slight boost compared to last Saturday. On the negative side, the weather seems to go into summer-mode again, and there still should be some decent World Cup games on the weekend, with the knockout-round starting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 (edited) With Germany not joining the round of 16, the theaters become more interesting again of course. Today also the weather is helpful; here in Bavaria it rained the whole day and overall it was mostly mixed I think. Unfortunately the weekend is predicted to become more sunny. Still, with Germany out I guess watching other teams on TV also has become rather unattractive for quite a few people. The Thursday estimates for the whole country (really not bad): Only numbers for one new release: Love, Simon (starting in 366 theaters): 6.5k The holdovers: Ocean's 8: 27k (actuals last Thursday 26.5k) JW2: 18k (29k) - maybe again underestimated DP2: 5.5k (8k) Solo: 5k (7.2k) Pope Francis - A Man of His Word: 4k (7.1k) - so far it was always underestimated so probably today too Hereditary: 1.5k (estimated 2.5k) The Strangers 2: 1k (2.3k) The South-West report of today looks nice for all movies: it showed an increase for O8 with 544 admissions (last Thursday 300), JW2 stayed almost flat with 494 (504), Solo had 102 (last week 101), DP2 206 (122) and A: IW also increased with 52 admissions (34) in the selected theaters. And the biggest foreign new release - Love, Simon - had 180 which is at least better than the number for Hereditary on its day of release, that movie had 150. → Very good holds, even several increases and for Love, Simon it's also looking quite ok. Mark_G from insidekino.de predicts a minus of 40% for O8, JW 2 and DP 2; Solo could drop 50% this weekend. Maybe the holds will be even a bit better with the new constellation; the predictions were made on early Wednesday, so before the match. 27% of the federal republic have school holidays. Edited June 28, 2018 by el sid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 28, 2018 Author Share Posted June 28, 2018 I think family movies have profited these weekdays from school shows (at least that's the case in Austria) so even if the weekend turns sunny weekly numbers will be ok. Otherwise, Germany's early demise from the WorldCup is surely a plus for the BO but not by that much - Austria did not qualify at all and still our BO is suffering ... with the knockout rounds starting, matches will be even more interesting, Germany or no Germany. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Uh, the first trend sure doesn't look pretty, lets hope things pick up a lot... #1 JW2 100k (-59%) #2 Ocean's 8 80k (-50% / -59% with previews) #3 Love, Simon 57.5k #4/5 Papst Franziskus 25k (-44%) #4/5 Deadpool 2 25k (-49%) 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted June 29, 2018 Author Share Posted June 29, 2018 Solo not in the Top5 any longer ... O8 with a decent drop considering the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...