IndustriousAngel Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 OK, if I was thinking First Man might make it into the Top3, that was probably wishful thinking ... the way it's preselling it will be tough to reach 100k OW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 First estimates from insidekino.de: #1: BR - 300k (-25%) #2: Nut - 160k (-38%, ouch) #3: 25km/k - 150k (-11%, sweet) #4 Simple Favor with 140k incl. Wed, not too good 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 45 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: #2: Nut - 160k (-38%, ouch) I don't think that's too bad since last WE was inflated. However, it's worse than other holds so it's not too good either... Could be close to 500k after 2nd WE, 1M, sadly, may not happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted November 9, 2018 Share Posted November 9, 2018 And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt: Film): The new releases: A Simple Favor (272): 12k First Man (released in 278 theaters): 8.5k → 65k admissions OW in the first trend, far under the expectations Overlord (273): 4.5k → 37.5k admissions OW, also under the expectations Thugs of Hindustan (38): 2.8k Elliot: The Littlest Reindeer (170): ?k → 15k OW The holdovers (they look more disillusioning than they are because last week had several helps): Bohemian Rhapsody: 35k (actuals last Thursday 90k) 25 km/h: 12k (37k) → 120k admissions OW in the first trend The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: 11k (65k) Der Vorname: 10k (33.5k) → ca. 100k admissions OW Halloween: ?k (65k) → also ca. 100k admissions OW 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miketheavenger Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 2nd trend has Bohemian Rhapsody even higher at 325k (-19%) and A Simple Favor at 150k. All of the other films stay the same. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 final estimates a bit lower, still a good weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: final estimates a bit lower, still a good weekend What do you expect for FB2 next week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 6 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said: What do you expect for FB2 next week? an opening in the 800k region 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 37 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said: an opening in the 800k region Are you basing this on presales or just guessing? (Explain a bit If you can) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 haven't looked at presales, just took the opening of part1 and went a little lower as was the case with the HP franchise 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 How are presales? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 8 hours ago, Noctis said: How are presales? at my theater, midnights about 5% sold ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 (edited) The Monday update: #1 BR 317.5/930k #2 The Nutcracker 165k/460k #3 25km/h 120/400k #4 A Simple Favor 97.5k/147.5k #5 Halloween 95k/980k #6 JE3 75k/830k #7 First Man 72.5k/77.5k - a bit better at least #8 TI2 57.5k/2.050M #9 Smallfoot 50k/510k #10 ASIB 35k/835k #11 Overlord 32.5k #12 Venom 30k/1.335M #13 Ballon 22.5k/765k #14 Der Trafikant 20k/65k ... Elliot: The LIttlest Reindeer 17.5k To the presales of FB 2: A diligent member of insidekino.de adds all reservated and sold tickets of FB 2 together and on Saturday it had ca. 1/3 (5k against 15k) of the sells of the first movie. Members say it should better pick up tickets now or it will become difficult with a 1M opening (what IndustriousAngel already said). My hope is that usually interest in a movie increases pretty late here in Germany (very often just during the release week) and it could be the same here. Edited November 12, 2018 by el sid 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 13, 2018 Author Share Posted November 13, 2018 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 Bohemian Rhapsody 319.564 602 531 929.563 8.854.593 -20 2 2 The Nutcracker 165.854 551 301 460.469 4.113.826 -36 2 3 25 km/h 121.412 455 267 399.276 3.327.443 -28 2 4 Der Vorname 97.920 516 190 700.941 6.019.961 -33 4 5 A Simple Favor 97.361 275 354 147.044 1.184.853 - 1 6 Halloween 95.925 547 175 982.586 8.679.608 -63 3 7 Johnny English 3 74.691 549 136 830.766 6.606.074 -55 4 8 First Man 72.402 278 260 78.817 754.057 - 1 9 The Incredibles 2 57.482 642 90 2.048.812 16.973.827 -53 7 10 Smallfoot 49.627 615 81 509.468 3.507.264 -45 5 11 A Star Is Born 35.748 399 90 833.035 7.450.614 -47 6 12 Overlord 32.342 273 118 32.940 293.229 - 1 13 Venom 31.255 307 102 1.335.581 13.578.511 -56 6 14 Ballon 21.829 439 50 759.317 6.431.050 -47 7 15 Der Trafikant 20.124 92 219 62.672 506.936 -28 2 16 Elliot: The Littlest Reindeer 17.749 170 104 17.843 117.848 - 1 17 Goosebumps 2 17.138 344 50 152.794 1.109.368 -59 3 18 Klassentreffen 1.0 16.495 296 56 1.109.145 9.646.712 -54 8 19 Pettersson und Findus - Findus zieht um 13.476 434 31 499.706 3.155.434 -52 9 20 Abgeschnitten 8.527 155 55 181.747 1.688.050 -55 5 Bohemian Rhapsody was on top again, with a really sweet drop espacially seen in the context of the other releases! The openers stayed on the lower end of expectations (in First Man's case, even below …) Next weekend: With the 2nd Fantastic Beasts movie, plus a few strong holdovers, a nice weekend is coming - even if presales are not looking that good, it should top the weekend with ease; about 800k admissions are expected. And Rhapsody should see a good hold once more! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Now it looks a bit better for FB 2 presales-wise. Yesterday, it were 8.5k (up from 4.8k on Saturday) against 15.1k for the first movie. Reservations where I looked were evenly spread over the following days (Wednesday-Sunday, with Sunday being so far a bit weaker) so at least on this weekend it doesn't seem to be frontloaded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 for some movies presales don't tell that much ... at my theater presales were extremely poor but in fact the midnight shows were at about 50% in the end. As a rule of thumb - the older the audience, the more presales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1.2m in previews. Is that good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el sid Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, James said: 1.2m in previews. Is that good? At insidekino.de/forum it says for FB 825k/910k admissions OW. Means the first movie had ca. 85k admissions in previews (over the whole Wednesday like this time). I don't know what the actual average ticket price is in Germany (e.g. in mathäser it's 12.90-13.90 Euro) but I would guess that the admission numbers of FB and FB 2 could be pretty similar then. Edited November 15, 2018 by el sid 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 (edited) 1st Trend looks great for FB2! It could get to more than 1M over five days (FB1: 911k). InsideKino predicts 1,075M with a 4-day OW of 965k (FB1: 827k). It's not safe yet, but it really should open stronger than FB1! BR has a good drop again with 260k (-19%). Should be around 1,25M after Sunday. Nut115k (-31%) 500k+ 25km/h 95k (-21%) Simple Favor 75k (-23%) Edited November 16, 2018 by Aristis 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Aristis said: 1st Trend looks great for FB2! It could get to more than 1M over five days (FB1: 911k). InsideKino predicts 1,075M with a 4-day OW of 965k (FB1: 827k). It's not safe yet, but it really should open stronger than FB1! BR has a good drop again with 260k (-19%). Should be around 1,25M after Sunday. Nut115k (-31%) 500k+ 25km/h 95k (-21%) Simple Favor 75k (-23%) Wow, that would be fantastic! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...