Aristis Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 58 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: The original TLK had over 11m admission in 1994 german, while before EG, none of the avengers film hit 4m admission in german. Marvels franchise isn't a monster here in germany. To think that TLK will be open below EG is insane. Yet we are here.. Aladdin (1993) had 6,35M admissions, BATB (1992) had 5,18M. The remakes switched places though and BATB (2016) did 3,43M and Aladdin (2019) may get to 1,85M. It's not just the originals numbers that determine the remakes. To a big part it's the circumstances. A:IW already opened to 1,075M and even though I doubted for a long that A:EG would top its predecessor a 1M+ OW was pretty certain. As for TLK an opening in that range wasn't assured, the BATB remake had the biggest OW at 864k... So I have to agree to Taruseth, opening lower has always been probable. It's the possible end result below A:EG that is quite shocking. But a big part of that is the huge overperformance by the last Avengers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, john2000 said: any idea about final total ? I'd say around $35M, though it could be less if it's hit hardly by weather or more if WOM kicks in. We should probably await the actuals OW numbers first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, john2000 said: i mean endgame made almost 30 million on ow even bigger than tfa Wrong, Endgame opened below TFA no matter how you look at it. Endgame vs TFA: adm: 1672k vs. 2139k €: 19.224m vs 25.345m $: 21.427m vs 27.227m 5-day OWend for Endgame vs TFA (4-day) adm: 2134k vs 2139k €: 24.322m vs 25.345m $: 27.109m vs 27.227m Yep, ATP over the run: TFA: €11.32 and Endgame: €11.25. Why? Summer vs Winter and lower 3d share is likely and on top of that CinemaxX and Cinestar at least offer tickets for €5.95/5.5 + 3d/name/lenght since the beginning of last year. 1 hour ago, titanic2187 said: The original TLK had over 11m admission in 1994 german, while before EG, none of the avengers film hit 4m admission in german. Marvels franchise isn't a monster here in germany. To think that TLK will be open below EG is insane. Yet we are here.. Not really, TLK 1994 opened with around 980k adm, it just had really great legs. IW opened with more than 1m. I guess Marvel slowly is getting bigger here too, or maybe the other movies are just falling apart. 16 minutes ago, john2000 said: any idea about final total ? Totally depends on leg, 10m on 4-day OWend should point towards a total above 35m as that would need just a 3.5x which would be not really good for a family movie. And theoretically it could do above 50m too if the holds are good and the OWend comes in higher. Edited July 20, 2019 by Taruseth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Wrong, Endgame opened below TFA no matter how you look at it. Endgame vs TFA: adm: 1672k vs. 2139k €: 19.224m vs 25.345m $: 21.427m vs 27.227m 5-day OWend for Endgame vs TFA (4-day) adm: 2134k vs 2139k €: 24.322m vs 25.345m $: 27.109m vs 27.227m Yep, ATP over the run: TFA: €11.32 and Endgame: €11.25. Why? Summer vs Winter and lower 3d share is likely and on top of that CinemaxX and Cinestar at least offer tickets for €5.95/5.5 + 3d/name/lenght since the beginning of last year. Not really, TLK 1994 opened with around 980k adm, it just had really great legs. IW opened with more than 1m. I guess Marvel slowly is getting bigger here too, or maybe the other movies are just falling apart. Totally depends on leg, 10m on 4-day OWend should point towards a total above 35m as that would need just a 3.5x which would be not really good for a family movie. And theoretically it could do above 50m too if the holds are good and the OWend comes in higher. oh that was for the 4day ? i am so sorry is 5 multi for family movies normal ? Edited July 20, 2019 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 2 hours ago, john2000 said: oh that was for the 4day ? i am so sorry is 5 multi for family movies normal ? Even Endgame's 5-day was barely below TFA's 4-day (and multi for Endgame is 3.025x and 4.235x for TFA). No, not quite I'd say multi for family movies is normally around 4.5 and around 3.5x for other movies, multis rarely dip below a 3x, only movie that I can remember (out of the top movies) is F&F8 with a 2.8x. But there obviously can be outliners in both directions like Aladdin (will end with something above 6.4x) or Pets 2 which had an absolutely dead OWend and that means it will end around a 12x or Endgame which due to its high OWend had a rather meh multi. Live action multis: On 7/4/2019 at 1:44 PM, Aristis said: I hope Aladdin can get to 1,6M this WE. InsideKino predicts it to final at 1,75M. Title Total OW Multipler € 1 BATB 3,430 0,864 x3,97 32,98 2 AiW 2,968 0,544 x5,46 28,00 3 TJB 1,877 0,460 x4,08 17,63 4 Aladdin 1,750 0,289 x6,06 16,00 5 Maleficent 1,467 0,359 x4,09 13,61 6 Oz 1,147 0,273 x4,20 11,62 7 Nutcracker 1,091 0,259 x4,21 9,10 8 Cinderella 1,068 0,274 x3,90 7,24 9 AiW2 0,831 0,199 x4,18 7,72 10 Dumbo 0,705 0,155 x4,55 5,30 *All numbers in Mio. Thanks to Taruseth I now have all OW actuals. Actually, as seen in context of all movies, Aladdin numbers are quite well. With worse weather it would have made more than 2M easily, though it was massively helped by the lack of competition. Most of them end with a multi around 4x. With AiW and Aladdin being the outliners, Dumbo and AiW2 are below TLK's 4-day OWend so not a comp I would use. Hope this is heading for a 4x too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Seems like TLK did around 640k (Thu to Sat) and 850k since Wed. That makes reaching close to 1M 4-day and 1,2M 5-day really hard. There's no 3rd Trend yet but it may be down to 900k and 1,1M... Still a great result, especially with the weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 3 hours ago, Aristis said: Seems like TLK did around 640k (Thu to Sat) and 850k since Wed. That makes reaching close to 1M 4-day and 1,2M 5-day really hard. There's no 3rd Trend yet but it may be down to 900k and 1,1M... Still a great result, especially with the weather. 3rd Trend: MarkG still thinks TLK can do 1,2M till Sun, though he says that it's up to the weather. No big changes for other movies, FFH down to 140k though. Aladdin 32,5k (-62%) probably around 1,8M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, Aristis said: 3rd Trend: MarkG still thinks TLK can do 1,2M till Sun, though he says that it's up to the weather. No big changes for other movies, FFH down to 140k though. Aladdin 32,5k (-62%) probably around 1,8M. If he thinks 1.2M than it either would mean a 350k Sunday after 210, 175k, 215k, 240k over the first 4-days or Saturday was better and it looks more like 210k, 175k, 215k, 275k, 325k. The former won't happen, the later is possible, I'd say (number in brackets are from the 17:00 count): Cinestar Bremen: 2D 17:00: 163 2D 19:30: 146 (17:00: 100 -> +46) 3D 17:30: 109 (17:00: 94 -> +15) 3D 20:20: 173 (17:00: 105 -> +68) OV 3D 20:20: 72 (17:00: 67 ->+5) Total: 591/663 (462/529) (Without OV/With OV) And the whole days has been sunny (22-23 °C while yesterday was rainy around 5-6 pm) numbers are final count so in the last 15 minutes before show began, sorry only counted those showings: 2D 17:00: 95 2D 19:30: 121 3D 17:30: 85 3D 20:20: 183 3D 22:30: 51 So total: 535 So counting the shows after 17:00 today would be even with yesterday despite worse weather and probably slightly better midday shows, will try to update this post through out the evening. 19:56: Now including the 19:30 2D showing I am 95% certain that Bremen is an outliner or I fucked up the counting yesterday and yesterday actually was more like 700 total. 20:30: Well, today evening showings were 10.5%/23.9% above yesterday, yeah, that's not happening. Of off a 240k Saturday would be 265.2/297.4 for Sunday and a 895.2-927.4k admissions. No idea how this should get a 990k 4-day unless Saturday truly was around 275k and that would mean Sunday would be around 304k-340k which would put the Wend at 934-970k over the Wend. Probably it over performed here today by quite something. Edited July 21, 2019 by Taruseth 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 (edited) Monday morning estimates: TLK: 920k (+210k = 1130k) FFH: 145k (Cume 1240k) Pets 2: 145k (Cume: 1450k) Yesterday: 70k Annabelle 3: 50k 920k*3 = 2760k (disaster) (unlikely) 920k*3.5 = 3220k (meh) 920k*3.75 = 3450 (okay) Most likely to land hear if the past is anything to go by. 920k*3.9 = 3588k (somewhat good) 920k*4 = 3680k (nearly good) 920k*4.1 = 3772k (good) 920k*4.25 = 3910k (good) (highly unlikely) 920k*4.5 = 4140k (really good) 920k*5 = 4600k (incredibly good) Second weekend will be really important, if it's below 500k its more likely headed towards less than 3500k, if it's better its probably headed towards more than that. If it's, which is almost totally impossible, above 700k than I'd say it's headed to a total north of 4M. Most likely will land around 490-510k, though obviously WOM and weather can push this in both direction, hot and bad WOM and we could be looking at a Wend below 400k, bad weather, great WOM and we could be looking at 600+k, which is also why this is hard to predict. Edited July 22, 2019 by Taruseth 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 With Monday numbers TLK is down to 920k (4-day) and 1,13M (5-day) now. Still a great result (bigger that BATB OW [864k] despite opening on Wed already and facing great weather). It's up to legs now. But even if it had the lowest of all multiplers it could get to 3,5M+ so that should be the goal which would be enough to become the biggest of the Disney Remakes in Germany. SM:FFH 145k (-53%) 1,24M Pets2 145k (-59%) 1,45M Yesterday 70k (-48%/-58%) Annabelle 50k (-52%) 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeowwoeM Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 Toy Story 4 predictions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, MeowwoeM said: Toy Story 4 predictions? Comes out on 15th August. Honestly: 350k 4x 1400k is the best it can hope for 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IndustriousAngel Posted July 23, 2019 Author Share Posted July 23, 2019 Germany's Top20 last weekend: title admissions th. PTA total adm. total € drop week 1 The Lion King 921.781 746 1.236 1.131.362 11.215.340 - 1 2 Spider-Man - Far From Home 147.732 661 223 1.235.876 12.401.852 -52 3 3 Pets 2 145.103 721 201 1.454.805 11.601.990 -59 4 4 Yesterday 69.694 394 177 292.520 2.491.875 -48 2 5 Annabelle 3 49.651 443 112 364.468 3.230.220 -53 3 6 Aladdin 29.796 455 65 1.806.308 16.435.982 -66 9 7 Five Feet Apart 28.759 423 68 489.748 3.877.958 -60 5 8 Anna 22.810 236 97 40.841 311.869 - 1 9 Rocketman 15.734 258 61 592.814 5.354.883 -28 8 10 Child's Play 14.265 225 63 22.574 184.808 - 1 11 Made in China 12.639 176 72 24.586 164.745 - 1 12 John Wick 3 10.118 244 41 1.139.690 10.618.356 -62 9 13 Bohemian Rhapsody 8.966 98 91 3.581.614 33.063.281 +109 38 14 Der Junge muss an die frische Luft 7.661 62 124 3.644.089 30.247.263 +97 30 15 TKKG 6.162 377 16 229.195 1.487.351 -66 7 16 Kleiner Aladin und der Zauberteppich 5.567 354 16 30.898 199.505 -67 2 17 Pokémon Detektive Pikachu 5.319 248 21 1.398.212 11.824.595 -60 11 18 Qu'est-ce qu'on a encore fait au Bon Dieu? 5.140 33 156 1.279.462 10.418.450 +9 16 19 Green Book 5.053 47 108 1.503.454 13.135.899 +29 25 20 Kroos 5.044 172 29 54.833 463.361 -65 3 Strong opening for Lion King, less so for the other openers. Thanks to open-air shows, some longrunning favourites are back in the charts. Next weekend: No strong openers, and fine weather - next weekend should see a steep decline (except those open-air shows of course) 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 Germany is very strange when it comes to TS... TS1 2,62M TS2 2,85M (opened in February) TS3 1,59M (opened in July) TS4 1,5M? Like Taruseth said, I wouldn't expect much - at best 1,5M (~$12,5M). Maybe, if the weather is very bad, it could do more than that... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeowwoeM Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 4 hours ago, Aristis said: Germany is very strange when it comes to TS... TS1 2,62M TS2 2,85M (opened in February) TS3 1,59M (opened in July) TS4 1,5M? Like Taruseth said, I wouldn't expect much - at best 1,5M (~$12,5M). Maybe, if the weather is very bad, it could do more than that... So lower than Incredibles 2 and How to Train Your Dragon 3? 😕 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 That wouldn't exactly be surprising. The first Incredibles was bigger than any Toy Story movie (3.5m admissions), and How to Train your Dragon 2 was also quite a bit bigger than Toy Story 3 (2.73m compared to 1.59m). Toy Story never really caught on here, especially when you look at what other franchises managed to do at that time (Ice Age, Madagascar, Shrek, etc.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainbug Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 5 hours ago, Aristis said: Germany is very strange when it comes to TS... TS1 2,62M TS2 2,85M (opened in February) TS3 1,59M (opened in July) TS4 1,5M? Like Taruseth said, I wouldn't expect much - at best 1,5M (~$12,5M). Maybe, if the weather is very bad, it could do more than that... Ähm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 13 Bohemian Rhapsody 8.966 98 91 3.581.614 33.063.281 +109 38 19 Green Book 5.053 47 108 1.503.454 13.135.899 +29 25 For a second i thought i was in the wrong page, why are these 2 oscar movies suddenly come back alive? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, titanic2187 said: 13 Bohemian Rhapsody 8.966 98 91 3.581.614 33.063.281 +109 38 19 Green Book 5.053 47 108 1.503.454 13.135.899 +29 25 For a second i thought i was in the wrong page, why are these 2 oscar movies suddenly come back alive? 8 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said: Strong opening for Lion King, less so for the other openers. Thanks to open-air shows, some longrunning favourites are back in the charts. As Industrious said, open air season begun. Edited July 23, 2019 by Aristis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 3 hours ago, Brainbug said: Ähm Well, we still have some time until TS4 opens... Still unlikely probably Those temperatures though... great weather to stay at home and study Spoiler if there wasn't BO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...