BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW

[IndustriousAngel]

I had hoped for a 30% drop since it's clear it doesn't behave like the other Potter movies ... the first weekend gave me hopes that this would be a bit leggier. But overall business was down this weekend so I think 3mil total is completely possible with a few better weekends ahead, also it should be in theaters until long after the holidays. I'd say chances at >3mil are better than <3mil.

[Aristis]

12 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Of course, if you're only interested in records and blockbusters, then 2016 must be one of the most boring years in history

It's so frustrating to see every weekend down compared to the previous year

Sadly I missed the great years for Cinema in Germany... But so I missed the collapsing too, which probably isn't so bad

 

But I asked myself if this year can get 120M admissions... But when you're saying it wasn't that bad this year - maybe I have a false memory about it?

 

When I'm not mistaken the first quarter had about 14% less than last year (the second seems worse to me) and that 14% decrease would get the year to 119,7M. (Hopefully I'm mistaken )

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, Aristis said:

It's so frustrating to see every weekend down compared to the previous year

Sadly I missed the great years for Cinema in Germany... But so I missed the collapsing too, which probably isn't so bad

 

But I asked myself if this year can get 120M admissions... But when you're saying it wasn't that bad this year - maybe I have a false memory about it?

 

When I'm not mistaken the first quarter had about 14% less than last year (the second seems worse to me) and that 14% decrease would get the year to 119,7M. (Hopefully I'm mistaken )

I am hoping for SW R1

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates via insidekino.de (forum):

New Releases:

Robbi, Tobbi und das Fliewatüüt: ?k (starts in 506 theaters, ok reviews)
Underworld 5: 16k (443, bad to ok reviews) – a quite ok start
Sully: 8.5k (360, mixed to very good reviews) - hopefully it will find its audience over the weeks. It was always clear that if this movie becomes a hit here in Germany it will be through its legs and not because of great admissions on the first day or weekend
Morgan: ?k (ca. 55, not even so bad reviews)
Marie Curie: ?k (ca. 57, quite good reviews)

Holdovers:

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: 33k (Last Thursday 60k) – probably underestimated for the third time, so don't worry already
Hartmanns: 19.5k (30k) - again a good hold but it's obviously slowing down
Arrival: 13k (21k)
Florence Foster Jenkins: 6.5k (6.5k) – a very good hold is coming
Doctor Strange: 4k (6.5k)
Jack Reacher 2: 2.5k (?k)
Deepwater Horizon: 2k (6k)

Edited December 1, 2016 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Underworld - better than feared, though it remains to be seen how frontloaded it is. Sully is just as doomed as Deepwater Horizon last week, the story was just not that big here, but maybe it can cash in on better wom. I'm glad about FFJs hold, I liked that movie and it seems to have very good wom.

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: FB - 375k (-30%)

#2: WbdH - 160k (-30%)

#3: Arrival - 115k (-20%)

Best opener - Underworld5 with 75k; Sully 60k

[el sid]

So nice holds but a very disappointing weekend for the new releases.

Some actuals:

FB: 40k
Hartmanns: 20k
Arrival: 15.5k
Underworld 5: 12.5k – lower than the estimate but still, only 75k OW? So Mark_G must think that it will be very frontloaded
Sully: 8.5k
Robbi, Tobbi und das Fliewatüüt: 2.5k – a 40-65k OW is projected at the moment
Marie Curie: 1.5k

[Aristis]

Hm. So if FB isn't hit too hard by SWit still could do 3M... I'd say it'll hit that number

 

Hartmanns can do it, too.

 

Trolls, as the 27th movie of the year, crossed 1M admissions. Last year we had 33. 4 more will probably do it(Sing, SW, Vaiana, Vier gegen die Bank) so we're at 31. That's not that much less.

 

I do not have high hopes for the year, yet.

[el sid]

Normally I don't post them and as always, these numbers are only estimates but today they show some pretty fine improvements. These are the Friday estimates:

Underworld 5: 26k (this film was overestimated a little bit yesterday, so take this number with a grain of salt too)
Sully: 21.5k (not bad at all if this number holds)

FB: 91k (!) - and this movie was underestimated yesterday/always
Hartmanns: 47k
Arrival: 31.5k
Jack Reacher 2: 10k - that would be a great increase from yesterday (with 2.5k) too
FFJ: 7.5k
Doctor Strange: 5k
Deepwater Horizon: 4.5k

[Poseidon]

FB will be at over 2.1m, coming from a 375k weekend. This should work out in the end I guess. 

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday update - no big changes (WbdH a bit better)

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday update - no big changes (WbdH a bit better)

[IndustriousAngel]

Final trend still stable:

#1: FB - 375k (-30%)

#2: WbdH - 175k (-25%)

#3: Arrival - 110k (-20%)

#4: Underworld - 75k

#5: Sully - 62k

#6/7: Trolls / Petterson&Findus with 50k each (-25% for Trolls, P&F a bit up from last weekend)

[efialtes76]

#1: FB - 385k /2,175Mio

#2: WbdH - 175k /2,32Mio

#3: Arrival - 105k

#4: Underworld - 75k

#5: Sully - 67,5k

#6/7: Trolls / Petterson&Findus with 50k each 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Fantastic Beasts	386.056	767	503	2.179.978	22.140.058	-28	3
2	Willkommen bei den Hartmanns	177.430	727	244	2.319.057	18.884.527	-24	5
3	Arrival	108.241	441	245	320.629	2.667.301	-22	2
4	Underworld 5	76.591	442	173	76.591	833.233	-	1
5	Sully	64.396	358	180	73.328	621.920	-	1
6	Trolls	51.191	592	86	1.053.512	7.658.570	-22	7
7	Pettersson & Findus - Weihnachten	50.232	656	77	354.805	2.240.372	+4	5
8	Florence Foster Jenkins	39.910	196	204	110.690	909.413	-4	2
9	Robbi, Tobbi und das Fliewatüüt	37.303	515	72	44.708	284.447	-	1
10	Doctor Strange	27.888	293	95	1.420.761	15.543.589	-42	6
11	Jack Reacher 2	22.418	363	62	432.641	3.711.013	-50	4
12	Deepwater Horizon	20.668	360	57	101.087	759.331	-52	2
13	Ikinci Sans	17.048	59	289	46.816	430.451	-20	2
14	Findet Dory	16.869	396	43	3.755.857	31.381.544	-35	10
15	Paterson	15.213	117	130	86.535	669.270	-24	3
16	Görümce	15.042	34	442	15.042	137.137	-	1
17	Die Weihnachtsgeschichte	13.180	214	62	20.754		+86	2
18	Dag II	11.602	46	252	11.602	116.850	-	1
19	I, Daniel Blake	10.791	102	106	38.860	287.593	-25	2
20	Marie Curie	10.430	55	190	12.837	97.883	-	1

 

It was not the weekend of the openers, but holdovers had some very nice drops (and both christmas-themed movies an increase). Who would have thought that Florence Foster Jenkins will end up with double the admissions of Deepwater Horizon? Fantastic Beasts has found ist stride and is on ist way to well above 3mil total, with holidays on the horizon it might even develop towards 4mil.

 

Next weekend: The biggest openers are family stuff: Vampirschwestern 3 and Sing - both will probably put the final nails in Dory's coffin. I don't think Sing will reach Pet's numbers but I'm hoping for more than 500k admissions, as I do for Vampirschwestern3 - so the fight for #1 is hot! Jaques Cousteau biopic L'Odyssée is another interesting opener but probably not much more of a success than this week's Marie Curie. Then there's Office Christmas Party - after Bad Santa 2 flopped that hard, maybe this one can profit from the empty comedy market (Willkommen bei den Hartmanns will be in ist 6th weekend and is losing steam) and I'm hoping for, say, 200k OW and some good legs with its christmas party theme.

[FantasticBeasts]

12 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

 

So where do you see FB ending in US dollars?

Edited December 6, 2016 by FantasticBeasts

[efialtes76]

33 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

So where do you see FB ending in US dollars?

40M.

[FantasticBeasts]

6 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

40M.

Well, that's great isn't it?

[Aristis]

5 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Well, that's great isn't it?

The last HP did - according to BOM - $78M. So I would consider $40M a good result. (I think it could do $35M to $45M, we will see how much it will be affected by RO and how much Holiday can help to boost it)

I'll hope for €40M because than it's joining this great list: http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DAlltime100bo.htm

[IndustriousAngel]

hmmmm ... for a (hopefully) >500k opener, Sing looks awfully empty as of now. The again, it's the scourge of family movies that nearly no-one buys tickets in advance, it's as if parents don't give a shit about if their offspring get decent seats.