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WEEKLY REPORT. JUMANJI, COULD IT GROSS $300M+? JEDI MAY CAN'T DO THAT.

 

This week due to holidays all movies in chart were benefited on their weekdays; had amazing increases on Christmas Day and helped them with mediocre weekend numbers.

 

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

- $300M are possible with New Year Day and January 5th coming. Kids return to school on Jan 8th so everything it's clear for Rock & Co.

 

Ferdinand

- May end on $130M-$150M land. Upcoming competition is Tadeo 2 next weekend.

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

- $300M are likely to be missing. Severe loss of screens the last 2 weeks and next weekend are hurting its run.

 

The Greatest Showman

- Great start for a musical, $200M+ are quite possible. Hugh Jackman, his power!

 

  TITLE WEEKDAYS (LC) WEEKLY (LC) TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM.
1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $82,58 $137,43 $152,94 $7,77 2,93 3,24
2 Ferdinand $40,31 $59,7 $65,24 $3,32 1,4 1,53
3 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $29,29 $48,08 $221,11 $11,43 880K 3,73
4 Wonder N/A $33,21 $101,74 $5,14 680K 2,04
5 Cuando los Hijos Regresan $20,41 $29,01 $31,81 $1,47 620K 670K
6 The Greatest Showman $13,28 $13,28 $13,28 $672K 263,9K 263,9K
7 Daddy's Home 2 N/A $9,24 $198,22 $10,43 221,5K 4,28
8 Coco $2,44 $3,51 $1097,11 $57,34 77,6K 23,36
9 A Bad Mom's Christmas N/A $3,43 $54,74 $2,83 74,6K 1,14
10 Justice League N/A $2,76 $470,99 $24,91 66,8K 9,27
Edited by Carlangonz
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So, things between Universal and Cinépolis still cold. PS for Fifty Shades Freed started on Cinemex while on Cinépolis isn't even listed as an upcoming release, same situation with every single Universal/Warner 2018 movie, from Disaster Artist until Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

 

Everything is more tense as JL was practically an underperformer and Cinépolis had to pay a bigger % from gross and a considerable fee for getting late the copyright licenses.

 

Hope everything can solve soon so JW, Nun and Grinch doesn't lose spots on Top 10 2018. 

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15 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

What is going on with movie studios in Latin America, just read in the Brazil thread that Coco may be boycotted because Disney wants a higher % of revenues or something like that! Frustrating!

:ohmyzod:

That's so annoying. Can't believe how they can act like that, specially there, where Coco can do a great result, tho possibly they (Disney) decided to do that knowing that would be a success based on numbers of other Latin American countries. 

 

I hope doesn't affect other Disney releases

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Totals as per ScreenDaily.

 

- The Greatest Showman. $2.7M OW. $53M 4-Day OW.

 

- Jumanji. $2.1M weekend for a $10M total. It should be around $200M lc

 

- Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Minimum drop for a $12.1M total

 

- Wonder. $6M total. Possibly over TLJ this weekend, that's stunning.

 

Happy New Year everyone! May you have a great 2018.

 

Let's see what superheroes, dinosaurs and anti-christmas creatures have us for the year.

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4 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

@GiteshPandya reports on Twitter that Coco reached $57.7M.  Any news of an expansion now that TLJ is fizzling out? It must be very close to 1.1B.

 

Happy New Year/Feliz año nuevo to everyone! :insane:

Noup :whosad:I still have hope for a sing-along version

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New Year's Eve weekend. Estimated totals up to Sunday.

 

1/ Jumanji-$189M

2/ The Greatest Showman-$46M

3/ Ferdinand-$82M

4/ The Last Jedi-$232M

5/ Wonder-$111M

6/ Cuando los Hijos Regresan-$38.8M

7/ The Foreigner-$4.8M

8/ Daddy's Home 2-$199.5M

9/ Perfectos Desconocidos-$1.4M

10/ Coco-$1,097.8M

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PRELIMINARY TOP 20 OF 2017 (UP TO 4 JAN)

 

Local Currency

01 1,097,110,000    Coco
02    673,590,000    Fate of the Furious
03    623,190,000    Despicable Me 3
04    565,690,000    Beauty and the Beast
05    491,770,000    It
06    482,580,000    Spiderman: Homecoming
07    470,990,000    Justice League
08    455,090,000    How To Be a Latin Lover
09    437,590,000    Baby Boss
10    412,490,000    Wonder Woman
11    403,070,000    Thor Ragnarok
12    353,450,000    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
13    331,300,000    Annabelle: Creation
14    303,790,000    Pirates of the Caribbean: Salazar's Revenge
15    287,220,000    War for the Planet of the Apes
16    276,330,000    Cars 3
17    271,920,000    Kong: Skull Island
18    270,730,000    Logan
19    268,720,000    Transformers: The Last Knight
20    252,860,000    Jumanji: Welcome to The Jungle
21    246,440,000    Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Audience

01    23,360,000    Coco
02    14,130,000    Fate of the Furious
03    13,970,000    Despicable Me 3
04    11,270,000    Beauty and the Beast
05    10,520,000    It
06    10,240,000    How To Be a Latin Lover
07      9,980,000    Baby Boss
08      9,780,000    Spiderman: Homecoming
09      9,270,000    Justice League
10      8,300,000    Wonder Woman
11      7,940,000    Thor Ragnarok
12      7,100,000    Annabelle: Creation
13      6,990,000    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
14      6,140,000    Pirates of the Caribbean: Salazar's Revenge
15      6,090,000    War for the Planet of the Apes
16      5,900,000    Cars 3
17      5,710,000    Kong: Skull Island
18      5,660,000    Transformers: The Last Knight

19      5,350,000    Jumanji: Welcome to The Jungle
20      5,320,000    Logan

 

 

Edited by Purple Minion
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WEEKLY REPORT. LAST WEEKEND OF 2017 AND FIRST WEEKDAYS OF 2018. JUMANJI STILL ON TOP.

 

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

- $300M are locked, though drops will be harder next days still may end on $320M+

 

The Greatest Showman

Seems to have a good WoM among social media. $200M+ are on play.

 

The Last Jedi

- Some theatres are dropping it already or giving it less screenings than Wonder so any chance for late legs are dead. Next weekend Shape of Water and local comedy will steal rest of its showtimes.

 

Insidious 4

- Great start for a horror. May near $60M-$70M for its 4-Day OW.

 

Tadeo 2

$20M +/- for the 4-Day OW. Hurted by kids returning to classes on Monday.

 

  TITLE WEEKDAYS (LC) WEEKLY (LC) TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM.
1 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $63,02 $99,02 $252,86 $12,84 2,09 5,35
2 The Greatest Showman $54,61 $87,33 $100,98 $5,13 1,77 2,04
3 Ferdinand $31,63 $48,63 $114,25 $5,81 1,14 2,68
4 Wonder $17,08 $26,08 $128,13 $6,93 530K 2,57
5 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $15,06 $25,06 $246,44 $12,70 441,7K 4,17
6 Cuando los Hijos Regresan $11,73 $18,59 $50,56 $2,41 394,3K 1,07
7 Insidious: The Last Key $14,4 $14,4 $14,4 $748K 294,3K 294,3K
8 The Foreigner $6,11 $9,63 $10,91 $314K 198,9K 225,1K
9 Tadeo Jones 2: El Secreto del Rey Midas $3,63 $3,63 $3,63 $188K 79,8K 79,8K
10 Daddy's Home 2 $2,28 $3,58 $201,84 $10,60 82,7K 4,36

 

 

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TOP 20 IN USD as per Mojo estimates. ER was at its lowest in Summer.

 

1 Coco Disney $57,689,261 10/27
2 The Fate of the Furious UPI $36,309,142 4/14
3 Despicable Me 3 UPI $34,804,796 6/30
4 Beauty and the Beast (2017) Disney $29,968,579 3/17
5 It WB $27,600,000 9/14
6 Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony $27,069,013 7/6
7 How to be a Latin Lover Videocine $24,928,324 5/5
8 Justice League WB $24,800,000 11/17
9 The Boss Baby Fox $23,177,795 3/31
10 Wonder Woman WB $22,500,000 6/2
11 Thor: Ragnarok Disney $21,243,605 11/2
12 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Disney $19,005,245 4/28
13 Annabelle: Creation WB $18,700,000 8/17
14 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Disney $16,643,576 5/26
15 War for the Planet of the Apes Fox $15,879,468 7/28
16 Cars 3 Disney $15,591,138 6/16
17 Transformers: The Last Knight PPI $15,334,443 7/21
18 Logan Fox $14,433,722 3/3
19 Kong: Skull Island WB $14,200,000 3/10
20 The Mummy (2017) UPI $13,032,172 6/9
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16 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

7 How to be a Latin Lover Videocine $24,928,324 5/5 8 Justice League WB $24,800,000 11/17

Never in a thousand years i've would imagined a Eugenio Derbez comedy over a Justice League movie. That shows how damaged the DC brand is and how strong still is Derbez after almost two decades doing comedy.

 

Wonder when Overboard is going to debut. Don't think IW damage it, ¿Qué Culpa Tiene el Niño? didn't had issues with CW so anything can happen.

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JANUARY 05-07 WEEKEND. GREAT DEBUT FOR INSIDIOUS; JUMANJI, SHOWMAN AND WONDER INCREASE.

 

Insidious: The Last Key

- Opening 32% over Insidious 3. Today surpasses its entire gross.

- This franchise just like Saw and Purge tend to be very front-loaded so we can expect a final somewhere between $130M-$140M, maybe more but depends on WoM.

 

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

- Small but impressive increase, specially with kids returning to schools. Serious shot at $350M+

 

The Greatest Showman

- Another surprising increase. This week is going to be decisive to know if can pull $200M+

 

Tadeo 2

- Weak result. $50M locked due to no upcoming animation but still has to compete with Jumanji for families. 

 

# MOVIE WEEKEND % CHANGE TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM.
1 Insidious: The Last Key $57,18   $71,96 $3,71 1,09 1,4
2 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $37,21 +3,36% $290,35 $14,77 700K 6,06
3 The Greatest Showman $35,49 +8,46% $136,67 $6,97 610K 2,65
4 Ferdinand $15,98 -6% $130,36 $6,63 346K 3,02
5 Tadeo Jones 2: El Secreto del Rey Midas $15,49   $19,2 $991K 323,8K 405,5K
6 Wonder $10,89 +21% $139,1 $7,49 190,3K 2,76
7 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $6,99 -30,10% $253,46 $13,06 104,3K 4,28
8 Cuando los Hijos Regresan $5,32 -21,76% $55,92 $2,68 96,9K 1,17
9 Stronger $3,45   $4,12 $213K 50,7K 61,4K
10 The Foreigner $2,94 -16,47% $13,86 $466K 53,7K 279K
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YEARLY BO PRE-REPORT. NUMBERS UP TO NOVEMBER 27.

 

CANACINE published on late december a preliminary report of the 2017 box office with numbers until November 27.

 

  • $15,361,000,000 MXN. At the end of the year should be near or even over $17B after results of movies like DH2, Jumanji and The Greatest Showman, Wonder, The Last Jedi and Ferdinand. +11% from 2016 and a new all-time record. 
  • 332M tickets sold, only 9M behind the 2016 record. That one will fall too.
  • Summer was -13.2% from 2016 summer despite succeses like Spider-Man: Homecoming, Wonder Woman and How to be a Latin Lover.
  • Ticket price average was +1.6% from 2016.
  • Yearly attendance per citizen was of 2.63 times vs 2.71 from 2016. This number should go over too by end of the year
  • Fourth country with more screens in the world only behind USA, China and India

Another interesting fact is that 3 out of 6 ratings saw their biggest grossers this year.

- AA Rating. Coco ($1,098M)

B-15 Rating. It ($491M)

C Rating. Logan ($271M)

 

Monthly opening records were also broken

September. It ($183M)

October. Coco ($176M)

November. Justice League ($182M)

 

Wait for another wild year as we have big releases for this year. Summer won't be as lazy as 2017's since we'll see: 

- 10th anniversary celebration of Marvel Studios with Infinity War opening on April 27th. OW record? Possible, but Civil War already had ton of screens and sold-outs, let's see if market has got more room for $350M+. All-Time record? Not sure, Coco was a real beast

- Deadpool 2. The sequel of the famous anti-hero opens on June 2nd. The first one is the 3rd biggest B-15 title of all-time only behind It and Conjuring 2. Although that one had a expected success this one is more unpredictable since has more competition facing it the weeks after its release. Expect a crowded OW but short legs.

- Not counting Toy Story 1 & 2, the best aged Pixar movie possibly is The Incredibles, specially with the CBM boom the past years. With a lot of buzz on social media after first teaser and a very early marketing campaign starting the last weeks on different streets on mexican cities won't be surprissed if Incredibles 2 reaches DM league ($600M+). Its obstacles? Dinosaurs and a change on the dubbing cast (except Dash, obviously)

- When Jurassic World came out and blew away records everywhere most people were impressed of how that happened. On USA the answer to its success was based on nostalgia, but for foreign markets that wasn't the same point which was very simple: people love dinosaurs. This time competition for Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is no different than it was for JW back in 2015 so is safe to expect $500M+ and a No. 2 on Top 2018.

- Hotel Transylvania has became a middle range franchise, it doesn't play on the big leagues with Miguel, Buzz & Woody or Gru & Minions but the result of the first two installments have been solid so far so Hotel Transylvania 3 coming in summer and a less crowded month puts it on a very good position to do similar numbers to its predecessor: $400M+

- Mexicans looove horror, we know that and The Nun will come to confirm us that on July, although probably its release date be moved to not compete directly against HT3. The last two Conjuring Universe movies did $300M+ so Nun can keep that trend if doesn't have a toxic WoM a la Annabelle.

 

Slenderman has the potential to be a break-out: perfect release date, horror and a known property. Don't ask about Solo, it's possible that its final gross be under TFA 4-Day OW ($190M)

 

For other seasons expect hits from Black Panther, Venom, Halloween and Dr. Seuss The Grinch.

 

Sources:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/espectaculos/cine/disney-dueno-de-la-taquilla

http://www.elexpres.com/2015/nota.php?story_id=158194

 

Edited by Carlangonz
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So apparently Shape of Water is opening wide tomorrow, 1,500+ screens. Will share PLF screens with local opener 'Una Mujer sin Filtros'. Cuando los Hijos Regresan, The Last Jedi, Stronger and Foreigner are the most affected.

 

Still nothing for upcoming Universal/Warner releases on Cinépolis: Fifty Shades, Post, Lady Bird, Darkest Hours and Disaster Artist. :( Thought everything was fine with Insidious 4 but that was distributed by Sony.

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WEEKLY REPORT. INSIDIOUS IS FIRST $100M GROSSER OF THE YEAR. SHAPE OF WATER, WHICH LEVEL IS GONNA REACH: GRAVITY, REVENANT OR BIRDMAN?

 

  TITLE WEEKDAYS (LC) WEEKLY (LC) TOTAL (MXN) TOTAL (USD) ADM. TOTAL ADM.
1 Insidious: The Last Key $25,96 $83,14 $97,92 $5,05 1,74 2,04
2 The Greatest Showman $19,8 $55,29 $156,53 $7,99 1,04 3,09
3 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $16,69 $53,9 $307,2 $15,63 1,1 6,46
4 Ferdinand $6,2 $22,18 $136,61 $6,95 520K 3,2
5 Tadeo Jones 2: El Secreto del Rey Midas $5,09 $20,58 $24,29 $1,25 460,7K 540K
6 Wonder $6,48 $17,37 $145,62 $7,82 336,8K 2,91
7 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $3,09 $10,08 $256,57 $13,22 162,4K 4,34
8 Cuando los Hijos Regresan $3,25 $8,57 $59,18 $2,84 175,5K 1,25
9 Stronger $1,89 $5,34 $6,01 $311K 87,7K 98,4K
10 The Foreigner $1,84 $4,78 $15,71 $561K 98,1K 323,7K

 

 

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Wow! Shape of Water is a monster, at least in the three main cities. That wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't because even on areas that usually play poorly for 'indie' and 'small' movies the movie reaches near or even total sold-outs.

 

We may see another breakout from one of the Tres Amigos, although this would be more surprising since didn't had big stars (Leo on Revenant and Sandra on Gravity) and advantages like IMAX, 3D and 4D.

Edited by Carlangonz
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28 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

Wow! Shape of Water is a monster, at least at the three main cities. That wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't because even on areas that usually play poorly for 'indie' and 'small' movies the movie reaches near or even total sold-outs.

 

We may see another breakout from one of the Tres Amigos, although this would be more surprising since didn't had big stars (Leo on Revenant and Sandra on Gravity) and advantages like IMAX, 3D and 4D.

Go TSOW! I assume TGS will hold well this weekend?

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33 minutes ago, BenedictL11 said:

Go TSOW! I assume TGS will hold well this weekend?

Not sure, the past weekend was huge and market is normalizing after the holidays which means much bigger drops but the movie keeps with a good number of screens and good wom.

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