Mexico Box Office | Garfield scratches great $8.4M 6-day OW; safe $2.5M start for The Fall Guy

[Purple Minion]

Great $4.7M total for Spiderverse! Bad $2.3M cume for Poppins 2.

 

Ah, Aquaman up to $22.4M.

Edited December 30, 2018 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

Great $4.7M total for Spiderverse! Bad $2.3M cume for Poppins 2.

 

Ah, Aquaman up to $22.4M.

Absolutely incredible for Aquaman. Talk about a leggy film. 

 

Pretty good for Spiderverse. Perfectos Desconocidos must be around similar numbers. 

[fabiopazzo2]

38 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

Absolutely incredible for Aquaman. Talk about a leggy film. 

 

Pretty good for Spiderverse. Perfectos Desconocidos must be around similar numbers. 

Holiday 

[Purple Minion]

Bumblebee total is a low-ish $7.7M.

[Carlangonz]

DECEMBER 25-30. 6-DAY WEEKEND. AQUAMAN PULLS MONSTROUS LEGS; TOPS WONDER WOMAN, THOR: RAGNAROK AND THE DARK KNIGHT RISES. INTO THE SPIDERVERSE OPENS AS 4^TH HIGHEST DEBUT FOR A SONY ANIMATION. PERFECTOS DESCONOCIDOS SURPRISES AND MARY POPPINS RETURNS FAILS.

 

Aquaman

- 6^th highest Warner release of all-time and aims to become 2^nd highest only behind Batman v Superman.

- Tops San Andreas by New Year Day, Justice League before Friday and It and Suicide Squad by next weekend.

- Might top Overboard as 4^th highest grosser of 2018 only behind Infinity War, Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom

 

Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse

-4th highest debut for a Sony Animation title only under the Hotel Transylvania trilogy. Should top first Hotel Transylvania and The Lego Batman Movie.

 

Bumblebee

-Running 13.4% above Ready Player One, 13.06% below Pacific Rim: Uprising and 9.29% behind Rogue One at the same point of release. New Year should help it to cross $200M but definitely got nowhere near as good legs as Aquaman.

 

Perfectos Desconocidos

-Cinépolis Distribution’s surprise, should cross $100M and install as 2018’s highest grosser local title.

 

Mary Poppins Returns

-6-Day OW under Nutcracker’s 3-Day OW (ouch!), very underwhelming opening.

 

#	MOVIE	WEEKEND	% CHANGE	TOTAL (MXN)	TOTAL (USD)	ADM.	TOTAL ADM.
1	Aquaman	$63.93	-18,24%	$451.12	$22.48	1.12	8.3
2	Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse	$42.50		$92.17	$4.65	738.63K	1.72
3	Bumblebee	$35.11	-34,42%	$151.7	$7.62	662K	2.9
4	Perfectos Desconocidos	$29.3		$58.34	$2.94	477.4K	1.04
5	Dr Seuss' The Grinch	$21.27	-39,08%	$323.77	$16.05	415.5K	6.6
6	Mary Poppins Returns	$20.24		$45.44	$2.29	315.7K	757.3K
7	Muse	$3.9		$7.48	$377K	71.74K	147.64K
8	Life Itself	$3.38	-43,47%	$16.2	$813K	49.41K	239.2K
9	Ralph Breaks the Internet	$1.8	-72,30%	$352.48	$17.27	36.6K	7.06
10	Monsieur Je-Sais-Tout	$969.69K		$1.6	$80K	13.1K	23.8K

 

Tomorrow (Tueday) opens: Creed II, Mortal Engines, Once Upon a Deadpool, Campeones and Destroyer.

 

Happy 2019 everyone, have a good time!  See ya’ all for Endgame, Lion King, Toy Story 4 and more records. 

[Carlangonz]

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM 2019? FIRST HALF.

 

January

• Glass. Split emerged as one of the surprises of 2017 and Unbreakable gained popularity after it so now Glass has installed as one of the most anticipated releases of the year and the first big one. Glass could open with $70M+ and end up above $200M. Don’t surprise if breaks $100M lc ($5M USD) on first weekend and $250M lifetime.

February

• How To Train Your Dragon 3. Fox currently has this opening the first Friday of February, a month ahead of its US release which is a pretty smart move given Captain Marvel and Dumbo competition on March. Won’t double its numbers like HTTYD 2 did from the first one but expecting to keep on the same trails. 
• The Lego Movie 2. Not expecting much, it’s going to deal with a lot of direct and indirect competition for the month after its release. Might top first Lego numbers ($160M lc) but not by a large margin. 
• La Boda de Mi Mejor Amigo. Local remake of My Best Friend’s Weeding; should benefit from opening on Valentine’s Day but unlike this year’s La Boda de Valentine don’t think it’ll be leggy. 

March

• Captain Marvel. Predicting a first time solo SH movie has become a challenge after 2018 outperformances’ Black Panther and Aquaman. Captain Marvel carries the goodwill of the MCU and hype after the all-time champion Infinity War so the importance of their story previous to Endgame is vital for this one to smash the box-office. Might replicate a success between Spder-Man: Homecoming and Black Panther.
• Dumbo. Between Captain Marvel and this one, March is going to be a preview to what the summer has for us and it may sound crazy but any of these two can win the month but I dare to say that this one has more chances to open higher. Dumbo is a beloved animation from north to south so it’ll probably end up somewhere between Jungle Book ($24M) and Beauty and the Beast ($30M).

 

April

• Shazam! Here comes the biggest challenge for the DC Universe since Green Lantern (and that didn’t end up pretty well): no star-power, no popular characters and open a week after a middle-size monster and three before the greatest monster of all. Anyway, it’s going to be fine if delivers but at a Doctor Strange/Ant-Man range.
• The Course of La Llorona. So, this is a big dilemma for Warner; they should move this one because of the big one but if they move they put two of their releases to compete each other for screens and audience. They probably won’t move it so it’s going to struggle with legs but be sure that can open very very big, north of $5M
• Avengers: Endgame. Here it is the big one, the greatest monster of all, the one that is almost certain to own 2019. The sequel to 2018’s hit Infinity War aims to break the records of its predecessor that includes biggest OD, OW and obviously the all-time crown. Should become third $1B lc grosser, but could it top Infinity War and even reach $1.2B lc? We’ll know in five months.

 

May

• Detective Pikachu. This is the ‘appealing to nostalgia’ of 2019 and is ready to “agüadar” (ruin) the party to Tony Stark & Co. when it opens on May. Keep an eye on it since it can gross over $20M.
• Aladdin. Another nostalgia appealer. Is hard to know which one is going to be higher: this one or Dumbo, both are extremely popular but Dumbo has more demo reach than the Will Smith starring movie. However, that doesn’t repeals it of going for $20M+.
• Godzilla: God Of Monsters. Yeah, this is the craziest summer in years. The sequel to the 2013’s hit arrives with hype and anticipation after the first trailer. Having scenes at Mexico City won’t help much (there you have Spectre) so it’s all up to Warner’s marketing and how of a crowd-pleaser is.

June

• Dark Phoenix. Not expecting much, surrounded by tons of competition and sense of laziness around the franchise won’t push it further of $12M-$15M, not bad result after all.
• The Secret Life of Pets 2. First SLOP was a success and went over $400M lc but this one has a little problem called Toy Story 4, way bigger than what Finding Dory was for SLOP. Universal might decide to move it for the end of June but not expecting numbers ahead of its predecessor.
• Toy Story 4. 2019 may be similar to 2018 when comes to Top 2: on the top a Marvel Studios long-awaited event and then a Pixar sequel to a beloved franchise. Toy Story 4 comes nine years after a third part that when it came out broke OD, OW and the all-time record, this might not come with the same level of awareness but it’s still part of a prevalent and strong franchise among pop culture and should pass $30M USD.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

Judging by a quick look at number of screens and shows I think Aquaman can crack $500M by Friday night. Weekend could either be another sub-20% drop or an o/u 50% drop. Should finish closer to $600M ($30M) than $550M ($27.5M).

Edited January 1, 2019 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

In a surprising end of year, Cinépolis has changed their image and remodeling infrastructure with new and modern theatres where are less human employees and most of process are automated. This one is the first one and is located at Monterrey. In the upcoming months they'll add another one there and two at Mexico City. Pretty similar to some theatres at South Korea and China. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Images from Skyscraper Mexico

 

 

 

 

[Purple Minion]

Wow, swanky... wonder if they'll re-do the Platino formats as well. Noticed that prices went slightly up. 

[Carlangonz]

7 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

Wow, swanky... wonder if they'll re-do the Platino formats as well. Noticed that prices went slightly up. 

Probably they'll do that to them too, although by the moment you can already purchase snacks and concessions through the app for VIP shows, that's something. 

 

Yup, increases from 10% to 12%, a pretty big increase this time.

[carlsalf38]

First of all: Happy New Year to everyone. I hope you have a great 2019

Second: @Carlangonz Thanks for the Recap of 2018 it was a great analysis.

As for the previews for 2019. It will be crowded when we get to the summer. I don't really understand why Disney decided to have the three big Live Action-Remakes released the same year. Dumbo, Aladdin and The Lion King will, in the end, eat each other up (a little bit, nothing to scream flop of course) but it is a strange release strategy.

Glass I'm dying to see it. I really hope it delivers as trailers do make it look as an event movie specially with the psycothic smile of Samuel L. Jackson

The Lego Movie will flop hard. I don't know anyone that has liked the first one (I enjoyed it but not to see it twice) so probably 140M or so? (less than The Lego Batman Movie).

Shazam¡ looks silly, really, really silly but it could be entertaining, nevertheless I don't think it will have Dr. Strange / Ant-Man levels.

I really hope we have a good year in Movies. more horror, more comedy and more Mexican movies...although the recent wave of romantic comedies gets worse by the day and I don't think La Boda de mi Mejor Amigo will turn the tide.

[Carlangonz]

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM 2019? SECOND HALF

 

July

• Spider-Man: Far From Home. The first movie of the post-Endgame era, many of the Infinity War heroes gained much popularity after the third Avengers film, or in the case of Spidey, it gained even more popularity, added to the PS4 videogame and Into the Spiderverse; Far From Home is going to be an important test for the cinematic future of Spider-Man. Right now expectations stay o/u $25M.
• The Conjuring 3. In 2018, The Nun installed a new ceiling for this successful horror franchise grossing over $420M lc, could the third installment break the record? Hard but not impossible, should overcome to the obstacle of sharing screens with Far from Home and Lion King. By now let’s say it rounds the numbers of its predecessor.
• The Lion King. Nostalgia for this other one is huge everywhere and Mexico isn’t the exception; classic among all generations there’s no doubt this is going to be a big event. The musical broke all type of records when played at Mexico City and the 3D re-release was a massive success back in 2011: it had a 9x multi, outgrossed Frankenwennie, held 8 weeks at Top 10 without even touching Top 3 and did 4x better than other 3D re-releases like Finding Nemo and Toy Story 2. So we can expect figures from $25M to anywhere in the sky.

 

August

• New Mutants. Wonder which one is going date-to-date with the US release: this one or Hobbs and Shaw? One of them has to move and probably is going to be this one. Anyway, not expecting much more than what Fantastic 4 grossed (between $5M and $8M).
• Hobbs and Shaw. First spin-off of the franchise with two of the favorite characters. Should do well, with the mojo of the franchise and of their both leads is going to be fine grossing between $20M-$25M.

 

September

• It: Chapter 2. First It broke records for horror back in 2017 and grossed nearly $500M. With little competition for the moment it could become first horror $500M+ grosser.

 

October

• Joker. The acclaimed villain is one of the keys for The Dark Knight and Suicide Squad’s successes in the country. Watch a new version generates buzz and hype and the first look already proved it. It definitely could break Venom’s record and install a new record also for B-15 titles –if it gets it- even Wonder Woman/Justice League numbers wouldn’t be so shocking is reception is good. Right now let’s keep grounded and say it makes o/u $15M.
• Zombieland 2. If there’s a movie that is a beloved comedy classic is first Zombieland and I dare to say that awareness for the sequel once material starts to show up is going to be quite large. Nostalgia is going to push it for an excellent opening at the least.

 

November

• Frozen 2. Is it going to be fine? Yes. Is it going to do stellar? Probably not as high as a Pixar sequel –let’s say MU or I2- but instead is going to play a la Ralph Breaks the Internet.

 

December

• Jumanji 2. First Jumanji was a pretty good winter surprise with exceptional legs so we can expect this one to stay at least flat from the first one, however, don’t think Cats to be another Greatest Showman, Episode IX won’t be a threat just like The Last Jedi wasn’t and Little Women won’t neither be a hit or even open on 2019. The only challenge could be Masters of the Universe –again, thanks nostalgia- but we don’t even know if actually is going to make it for this year. At the end, this has everything to dominate the winter and go for $20M+.
• Star Wars: Episode IX. The Last Jedi underperformed big time and Solo flopped so what to expect from the ninth episode of this franchise? Is hard to predict a big title that you don’t even know where can go –like Endgame or Lion King- but harder one like this that comes from a weak franchise, could either increase thanks to being the final chapter but also could go down due to the mixed reception of Episode VIII and Solo’s flop.

[Purple Minion]

Would be great if Shazam pulls an Aquaman or at least a Wonder Woman. Anything under 300M lc would be underwhelming.

 

For whatever the reason the ER is improving, best in weeks today. Fingers crossed it remains around the same and doesn't plummet during 2019.

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, carlsalf38 said:

First of all: Happy New Year to everyone. I hope you have a great 2019

Second: @Carlangonz Thanks for the Recap of 2018 it was a great analysis.

As for the previews for 2019. It will be crowded when we get to the summer. I don't really understand why Disney decided to have the three big Live Action-Remakes released the same year. Dumbo, Aladdin and The Lion King will, in the end, eat each other up (a little bit, nothing to scream flop of course) but it is a strange release strategy.

Glass I'm dying to see it. I really hope it delivers as trailers do make it look as an event movie specially with the psycothic smile of Samuel L. Jackson

The Lego Movie will flop hard. I don't know anyone that has liked the first one (I enjoyed it but not to see it twice) so probably 140M or so? (less than The Lego Batman Movie).

Shazam¡ looks silly, really, really silly but it could be entertaining, nevertheless I don't think it will have Dr. Strange / Ant-Man levels.

I really hope we have a good year in Movies. more horror, more comedy and more Mexican movies...although the recent wave of romantic comedies gets worse by the day and I don't think La Boda de mi Mejor Amigo will turn the tide.

You're back! Sames wishes for you 🙌

 

I think that of all of the live-action remakes the one with best advantage is Lion King, is more separate from Aladdin and Toy Story 4 and can see it co-existing with Hobbs and Shaw.

 

Shazam is an interesting proposal, I'm conservative with the Dr Strange/Ant-Man comparison since it has the same status as them unlike Black Panther, Wonder Woman and Aquaman that had presence on previous films and were already known. Would be totally great if Shazam overperforms, i like Zachary Levi since Chuck and I'm really curious to see the movie.

 

Should be a good year for horror with Conjuring 3 and It 2, plus any other Blumhouse project. Don't know what to expect from mexican cinema, projects happen so fast that you never hear of them with such anticipation, although i think No Manches, Frida 2 is coming out on spring.

[Carlangonz]

Still expecting final figures for 2018 annual results but estimates have it installing a new high for a single year beating 2017 with estimated $16.8B which is indeed a good number but unfortunately a much lower growth compared to the previous three years. 

 

Admissions is apparently decreasing from year-to-year for the first time since 2009 by quite a considerable margin.

 

Canacine is publishing full estimates in the upcoming weeks.

 

@Purple Minion @Olive

[Purple Minion]

Aquaman still strong, $23.5M and counting!

[Carlangonz]

6 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

Aquaman still strong, $23.5M and counting!

New Year's Day barely dropped compared to Christmas Day $600M ($30M+) on the table! 

[carlsalf38]

49 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

Still expecting final figures for 2018 annual results but estimates have it installing a new high for a single year beating 2017 with estimated $16.8B which is indeed a good number but unfortunately a much lower growth compared to the previous three years. 

 

Admissions is apparently decreasing from year-to-year for the first time since 2009 by quite a considerable margin.

 

Canacine is publishing full estimates in the upcoming weeks.

 

@Purple Minion @Olive

Thanks for you wishes @Carlangonz After some holidays, time off and sickness I'm here again¡ Hehehe.

 

Agree with your comments for the second half although as you said is difficult to have a good analysis so much in advance without knowing the exact schedule.

 

As for the results of this year. Admissions and boxoffice has had such incredible increases over the years that it was bound to stop at one point. I don't think other countries (only China perhaps) have had these steady ganings for so many years now and with more than 16.5 Billion Pesos as income and a record for Mexican movies not many people are complaining about these results. We're still on the Top 5 of international markets.

 

I can only hope that despite budgetary constraints we return to make good mexican movies in 2019 (as I said while doing romantic comedies helps mexican producers as we first need to build a strong mexican market) the quality of this year's bunch left so much to be desire and people are starting to get tire of the same stories and actors.

 

What will happen as a whole in 2019? Probably another record. As you have already mentioned we will have an incredible year with so, so many blockbusters awaiting that could definitely get to 17 Billion, specially if the Super-Heroes, Live-Action remakes and Animation titles perform as expected.

[Purple Minion]

¡Aguas! $24.1M total for Aquaman, will join the half a billion lc club by Friday.

[Carlangonz]

26 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

¡Aguas! $24.1M total for Aquaman, will join the half a billion lc club by Friday.

A run for the ages! Simply astonishing, probably the leggiest SH movie of the decade! 

 

This weekend is getting back a lot of screens including PLFs. May top Overboard by monday.