Mexico Box Office | Garfield scratches great $8.4M 6-day OW; safe $2.5M start for The Fall Guy

[Carlangonz]

Quite few thoughts 

 

Mario is getting a great response from what I'm seeing and hearing. Would bet on $1.3B/20M admissions at the moment. Depending on how ER moves then $68M-$72M USD. It still has another week before kids return to school and the May 1st holiday just before Guardians arrive. Could take all-time No. 3 from Toy Story 4. 

 

Unless there's a surprise from Pixar, I think this year is going to be the opposite of 2019 for Disney.

 

I stand with Fast X and Flash as potential 2 and 3 and Barbie looking like it could pull a smaller yet big enough Joker-type: great hype among young demo and if it's good it'll overcome its audience limitations. 

 

I can't give enough credit to Scream, Creed and John Wick smashing their own sagas records in lc and admissions that along with the extraordinary performance by The Whale make a point on adult audiences so it'll be interesting to see how that trend goes for stuff like Oppenheimer and Death Reckoning.

 

Seeing at Suzume I'm thinking $12M-$15M opening which already would be above Your Name's entire run and would assure this year's second $1M USD japanese title. Even if it's not with huge grosses it's nice to see these kind of smaller hits.

 

[Carlangonz]

$502.9M/6.9M admits

 

Spot on with estimates

[Shanks]

Thu - Sun  [Weekend]

1. Super Mario Bros - $395.4M / $502.9M
2. The Pope's Exorcist - $40.7M
3. John Wick: Chapter 4 - $31.3M/$207.2M
4. Dungeons & Dragons - $17M/$78.4M
5. Air - $17.9M
6. ¡Qué Viva México! - $8M/$67.2M
7. Shazam: Fury of Gods - $5.5M/$187.5M
8. The Whale - $1.2M/$180M
9. Scream VI - $1.1M/$96.9M
10. Marlowe - $0.7M / $5.5M

 

23 hours ago, Shanks said:

Mario Bros

Wed - 107.2M LC

Thu - 101.1M LC

Fri - 96.3M LC

Sat - 97.1M LC

Total - 401.7M LC  (5.5m Admits)

 

John Wick 4 made 24m LC in same time and crossed 199m LC.

 

Sun - 101.2M LC

Total - 502.9M LC (6.9M) ~ numbers rounded off

 

Note: The difference in above sum is due to rounding off & nothing else. Like on Wednesday, it was 107.173m but taken as 107.2M or on Saturday - it was 97.063m but taken as 97.1m~

Edited April 10, 2023 by Shanks

[Purple Minion]

All Time Movies, lc

 

45    504,796,933    Venom: Let Be Carnage (2021)

46    504,146,920    Hotel Transylvania 3 (2018)

47    502,900,000    The Super Mario Bros Movie (2023)

47    500,555,853    Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (2019)

48    492,308,654    It (2017)

[Purple Minion]

Studio updated OW for Mario: $27.8M .

[charlie Jatinder]

Top opening weekends

1. Avengers: Endgame - 9.37M admits ($609M)
2. Avengers: Infinity War - 8.23M admits ($467M)
3. Toy Story 4 - 7.47M admits ($459M)
4. Captain America: Civil War - 6.54M ($354M)
5. The Lion King - 5.55M ($354M)
6. Avengers: Age of Ultron - 5.30M ($290M) (4-days 7.25M)
7. Spider-man: No Way Home - 5.25M admits ($385M) [4-days 6.91M, 5-days 9.5M)
8. Minions - 4.94M ($251M) (4-days 6.1M)
9. Despicable Me 3 - 4.56M ($224M) (4-days 5.7M)
10. Fast and Furious 8 - 4.44M ($228M) (4-days 6.42M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie - 4M ($295M) [4-days 5.4M, 5-days 7M]

[nerves]

.

Edited April 11, 2023 by nerves
wrong thread

[Borobudur]

12 minutes ago, nerves said:

is Mario popular in Middle East? it's still not released there yet, is it?

It is fasting month over there now. Family friendly movies isn't really that friendly now. 

[Carlangonz]

$562M/$31M/7.9M

[Purple Minion]

Great Monday, it jumped Frozen 2 and it's now #38 all-time and #10 pure animation (no LK).

Are kids off school this week? At this rate it could be close to 700M by Thursday.

[Carlangonz]

Let's see how it goes. I think it'll go toe on toe with Toy Story 4 on weekdays but weekend is going to be key, that one made $250M Fri-Sun.

But yeah, considering way less competition (it doesn't have a FFH and GOTG3 is going to make half of TLK) so yeah $1.4B-$1.5B

[Purple Minion]

Dang, so potentially Mario > Coco. Crazy.

[Carlangonz]

$40M as per Deadline. Around $724M which puts it ahead of TS4 with the two extra days. I'm thinking just over $50M-$51M by the end of the weekend and still getting the edge over Woody & Buzz with no signs of losing steam. 

[Purple Minion]

That should put Mario on a par with Minions into the all-time Top 20. Coco is going down, if it beats TS4 then it will be the best over-performance of a movie in my books!

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Carlangonz]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

That should put Mario on a par with Minions into the all-time Top 20. Coco is going down, if it beats TS4 then it will be the best over-performance of a movie in my books!

 

With ER on a hot streak it definitely could happen at least in USD. <$70M is safe. 

 

Both Universal and Disney ramping up marketing for Fast X and Guardians 3 with the latter launching ticket sales next Thursday. I'm keeping each on $650M-$700M and $450M-$500M respectively.

[Purple Minion]

726M lc and 10.3M tickets sold for Mario.

[charlie Jatinder]

@Shanks can you post daily #

[Shanks]

58 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Shanks can you post daily #

 

Monday -  58M/ 562.4M lc

Tuesday - 58.6M/621M lc

Wednesday - 56.2M/ 677.2M lc

Thursday was 49.1M / 726.43M lc

[Purple Minion]

All Time Movies, lc

 

17    728,249,354    Captain America: Civil War (2016)

18    726,430,000    The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023)
19    724,799,241    Minions (2015)

 

All Time Movies, admissions

 

44    10,301,212    Shrek 2 (2004)

45    10,300,000    The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023)
46    10,279,101    How To Be a Latin Lover (2017)

Edited April 15, 2023 by Purple Minion

[Purple Minion]

Thanks @Shanks, those daily numbers are insane.  @Carlangonz, is TS4 2nd weekend record in peril?