Weekend Numbers [June 28-30, 2024] | Actuals | 57.52M INSIDE OUT II | 52.20M AQP: DAY ONE | 11.05M HORIZON: AAS - CHAPTER 1

[Bob Train]

15 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

Leaning towards 38-43 million for IO2 4th weekend.

 

Barbie did 33.8 million on 4th weekend.

0 chance of 43m. DM4 is direct competition. Likely 40-50% drop this weekend.

[Migs20242]

7 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Potential 25% drop against direct competition I think is asking too much.

might expect holiday boost for IO2 this July 3 and 4. 

 

Also, Inside Out 2 will have the biggest 3rd Tuesday in box office this Tuesday thanks to Tuesday movie discount.

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/day/3rd-tuesday

Edited June 30 by Migs20242

[Migs20242]

14 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

0 chance of 43m. DM4 is direct competition. Likely 40-50% drop this weekend.

a 40-50% weekend drop for IO2 isn't happening at all because IO2 is a family animated movie, not a superhero movie.

 

I'm thinking 30-40% drop for 4th weekend.

Edited June 30 by Migs20242

[Migs20242]

19 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

0 chance of 43m. DM4 is direct competition. Likely 40-50% drop this weekend.

Don’t forget that the Top Gun Maverick legs were insane. On its fourth weekend, Top Gun Maverick fly to $44.6M despite the competition against Jurassic World Dominion and Lightyear with its 4th weekend of $466.8M while Barbie’s 4th weekend was at $33.8M with $526.4M in total which would surpass The Dark Knight as the highest grossing WB movie domestically while The Super Mario Bros Movie’s 4th weekend was at $40.8M with $490.5M in total.

 

There's a chance that IO2 4th weekend will be 40+ million. 

[Bob Train]

23 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

a 40-50% weekend drop for IO2 isn't happening at all because IO2 is a family animated movie, not a superhero movie.

 

I'm thinking 30-40% drop for 4th weekend.

? what. You do realize it's dropping 43% this weekend against no competition. Not to say that's a bad hold, it's good, but animated movies usually face a bit of a drop when facing significant competition.

[narniadis]

Just now, Bob Train said:

? what. You do realize it's dropping 43% this weekend against no competition. Not to say that's a bad hold, it's good, but animated movies usually face a bit of a drop when facing significant competition.

Give some patience they are a newbie who is just riding the hype train. Next weekend we will deal with the "why isn't it holding better" drama from a lot of folks, not just him. 

[narniadis]

Solid Solid weekend. Nice to see some legitimate depth, and next weekend should add even more. 2 films over the 50m mark is great and next weekend will give us somewhere around 3 over 20-25 depending on the QP hold which is even better - depth wise. 

 

But it did come with a lot of rough falls. Such is the ebb and flow. Can't wait to see IO2 top the Billion mark!

[Joyous Legion]

Fwiw -30-40% is too optimistic but -40-50 a bit pessimistic. -35-45 perhaps 

[Migs20242]

54 minutes ago, Joyous Legion said:

Fwiw -30-40% is too optimistic but -40-50 a bit pessimistic. -35-45 perhaps 

It will depend on 3rd Thursday numbers for IO2 because July 4 is a holiday which we might expect holiday boost for IO2.

[Joyous Legion]

24 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:

It will depend on 3rd Thursday numbers for IO2 because July 4 is a holiday which we might expect holiday boost for IO2.

I am well aware of all factors and have taken them into account as best one can with such fundamentally uncertain domains  

[Madhuvan]

quite underwhelming hold for IO2 this weekend but it lines up with what I was saying from beginning. It's doing excellent but those 650M+ targets were quite unrealistic.

 

With DM4 next week, expecting 50-55% drop and 620-630m , above my expectations.

Edited June 30 by Madhuvan

[Joyous Legion]

19 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

quite underwhelming hold for IO2 this weekend but it lines up with what I was saying from beginning. It's doing excellent but those 650M+ targets were quite unrealistic.

 

With DM4 next week, expecting 50-55% drop and 620-630m , above my expectations.

How many times do you plan to repost this delusional garbage only to be disproven again  and again? What is the point?

[Noctis]

Every single time an animated movie opens, everyone expects the other animated films to suffer large drops and it rarely ever happens. It's not going to happen with Inside Out 2. Inside Out 2 losing all its PLF screens is what caused it to drop over 40% in the first place and that's still a strong drop. BOT never changes.

 

Every. Single. Time. 

[Insomnia]

4 hours ago, Kon said:

I've read summer doesn't have big grows between (True) Friday and Saturday to explain almost no grow for AQP, but IO2 will grow 5M in Saturday from Friday.

 

 

It's because the effect is most pronounced for openers. Inside Out 2 isn't opening this weekend so there's more room to jump from Friday. But even with IO2, the Saturday jump is quite a bit smaller than it would be during the non-summer months.

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

It's because the effect is most pronounced for openers. Inside Out 2 isn't opening this weekend so there's more room to jump from Friday. But even with IO2, the Saturday jump is quite a bit smaller than it would be during the non-summer months.

Yeah, summer and opening weekend mean lower Sat jumps ceteris paribus whereas kid skewing means higher 

[Jake Gittes]

6 hours ago, Migs20242 said:

Leaning towards 38-43 million for IO2 4th weekend.

 

 

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

Seems like the best analogy for IO2 in the end will be GOTG3 — depressed OW due to to recent brand weakness, word gets out it’s a return to form, bolstered D4-D14 or so but largely normal run from there

[cookie]

50 minutes ago, Joyous Legion said:

Seems like the best analogy for IO2 in the end will be GOTG3 — depressed OW due to to recent brand weakness, word gets out it’s a return to form, bolstered D4-D14 or so but largely normal run from there

IO2's OW beat tracking by 50%, so can you really call it "depressed"?

Edited June 30 by cookie

[Joyous Legion]

27 minutes ago, cookie said:

IO2's OW beat tracking by 50%, so can you really call it "depressed"?

Don’t really see that tracking has anything to do with it — if something is “tracking” for 50% of where it would open in better circumstances, and opens at 75%, then it beat tracking by 50% but is still 25% depressed relative to that counterfactual. A sequel finishing with something like 42% increase total DOM but only 30% OW vs an already very well-received and legged original is quite unusual behavior to say the least; if Pixar hadn’t been in a somewhat fragile state prior to this probably would have seen more like a 175-180 OW for similar total and stronger D1 sales.

Edited June 30 by Joyous Legion

[Joyous Legion]

Like, you’ve got to have some sense of expectations other than tracking, right? If Moana2 hit tracking at 20M and opened to 40M, that wouldn’t be “beat tracking by 100%, great open” it would be “beat tracking by 100% but nonetheless depressed.”

Edited June 30 by Joyous Legion