Weekend Thread Sept 20th-22nd

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, JonathanMB said:

 

That seems more realistic than $800k+ from the two nights, but the wording says "another $327k from Thursday" which I think is where the confusion is arising. Granted, not like Deadline has misreported/poorly worded preview numbers before. I hope they clarify soon, as that means the difference between an OK $2M weekend and a phenomenal $5M+ start.

 

All early WOM indicators are all very promising though. It's also started with 83% verified on RT, and is also riding high on IMDB (8.0) and Letterboxd (4.07). While the film is wildly disturbing, I think the marketing and WOM have done a good job of preparing anyone who has bought tickets to it, and unlike a lot of other art house/""elevated"" horror films you can't accuse the film of being boring (which is pretty impressive considering it's 140 minutes long).

It started at 82% on verified earlier this morning so that’s solid.

 

I just seen it, wouldn’t say it’s disturbing, it’s gory but goofy and got big laughs from the audience. It’s a hoot. 

[filmlover]

Transformers One actually reminds me of DC League of Super-Pets where the clearly juvenile approach to the IP instantly alienated the geek demos that are usually all over these types of properties yet at the same time the concept wasn't appealing enough to families to bring them out in especially large numbers. Beetlejuice has also likely stolen its thunder a bit given how much that's been playing to families. At least the budget wasn't too high, but this just goes to show that crossover hits like the Spider-Verse movies don't grow on trees.

 

2 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

I mean I don't think Lionsgate's 2025 is looking that much better tbh. Better than this year, sure. But anything is better than Lionsgate's 2024. The only two movies on their slate that are looking like hits are the Michael Jackson movie and Saw XI. And even then, the Michael movie has so much potential to backfire for a variety of reasons that even I'm not super certain on it like a lot of others are. Everything else is looking like a bomb too (who asked for a Now You See Me 3), that I'm honestly curious if that new Hunger Games movie will even come out under Lionsgate.

tbh I think they are the one studio that's arguably been hurt the most by the rise of streaming studios and independent rising stars like A24 and Neon given how much their bread and butter was in genre fare mixed with more mainstream-ish projects. There was actually a time during about a decade ago where they were a frequent presence on the awards circuit (they managed three Best Picture nominees in 2016 and were able to get Sicario a number of nominations the year before that), but they seem to have fallen out of the race entirely since the pandemic (Knives Out and Bombshell receiving ATL nominations right before it).

 

Speaking of which, how much does one get the sense they must be kicking themselves right now for not doing everything in their power to keep the Knives Out franchise.

[efialtes76]

$9.7m/$26m according with Deadline

BB-$6.75m/$24.75m(-52%)

https://deadline.com/2024/09/box-office-transformers-one-the-substance-never-let-go-1236095371/

 

Edited 8 hours ago by efialtes76

[Bob Train]

People aren’t interested in Transformers without Bay, the death of the franchise, especially overseas, has been crazy. 

 

TLK was regarded as a flop back in the day but it still made $200m+ more WW than any post-Bay entry (and was higher domestically after adjusting for inflation), despite being panned across the board.

[Grand Cine]

It's funny but Transformers One will make exactly the same OW as Paw Patrol 2 last year ( without previews). The difference is budget (30M for PP , 75M for Transformers)

[Krissykins]

Hopefully Beetlejuice Beetlejuice can beat Transformers. 

[ThomasNicole]

Nice , can try 4 imo if it did 512k previews instead of 840k

The Substance is eyeing $1.75M today, including previews, for a $3.3M-$3.5M opening at 1,949 locations. The pic, I hear, had an under $10M P&A spend, largely digital.

[Eric Prime]

Honestly thinking Beetlejuice might threepeat at #1. Transformers is already looking to be super fan-driven, and Beetlejuice just needs a few minor jumps from its current estimates to reach a million or two.

[Krissykins]

10 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Nice , can try 4 imo if it did 512k previews instead of 840k

The Substance is eyeing $1.75M today, including previews, for a $3.3M-$3.5M opening at 1,949 locations. The pic, I hear, had an under $10M P&A spend, largely digital.

So Mubi bought it for $12.5m and then spent $10m P&A. Can’t help but think they’d be hoping for more than a $2k pta. 
 

A24 would’ve handled this better. 

[Unfitclock]

Transformers should do 3-4x it’s true Thursday previews at the very least for its true Friday gross there’s no holiday going on so I don’t know why it wouldn’t be able to

[Roxanne]

Seems like a real collapse for TFOne. Kinda surprising after ROTB overperformed expectations last year. Can't help but think this same movie but in Lion King style psuedo-live action would've done better, I think the animation style turned people off by looking too similar to the Transformers stuff you can see on TV.

[filmlover]

Bringing back Bay/LaBeouf/Fox (three people whose best days are arguably behind them) for a new Transformer sequel sounds like one of the more obvious examples of a legacy sequel pitch that flops in reality if they actually made it. Those movies already feel like products of a bygone era more than most blockbusters from decades past do.

[filmpalace]

Hmm, would like to see The Substance get a bit closer to 5M. Maybe WOM throughout the weekend can get it there.

 

With the way this forum filled pages upon pages talking about Transformers, along with some trackers' numbers being better than mine, I expected higher numbers. Looks like it might be quite frontloaded.

[Eric Prime]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

So Mubi bought it for $12.5m and then spent $10m P&A. Can’t help but think they’d be hoping for more than a $2k pta. 
 

A24 would’ve handled this better. 

Well...yeah. You're right. But Mubi doesn't have the same resources or reach or brand name recognition as A24. And Substance is still looking to open higher than Decision to Leave's entire run. It could have easily grossed around the same level as something like Titane, but it's looking to far outpace it. I think this is still a victory, especially if this movie drives people to the Mubi subscription service.

[wattage]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

So Mubi bought it for $12.5m and then spent $10m P&A. Can’t help but think they’d be hoping for more than a $2k pta. 
 

A24 would’ve handled this better. 

Under 10m to be fair but yeah, hopefully OS helps recoup some of the costs in the end. 

 

I don't know if I think A24 could've done any better if they were trying to keep P&A low, at least not currently. For what it is, it's doing surprisingly well. I thought the movie would be coming in a lot lower than it's looking to be honest. 

Edited 7 hours ago by wattage

[Eric Prime]

Saw this blurb from Deadline Anthony and it broke my brain. Like what are you even saying?

 

Quote

Warner Bros.’ third week of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice isn’t far behind with a third weekend of $24.75M, -52%, at 4,172 locations after a $6.75M Friday. The running total is bound for $225.6M by Sunday which will make it the second highest grossing September theatrical release ever at the domestic box office behind 2017’s It at $328.8M and ahead of Disney/Marvel studio’s 2021 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at $224.5M. It’s arguably the highest grossing movie for Jenna Ortega in a story role at the domestic B.O. not counting her supporting part as the Vice President’s daughter in Iron Man 3 ($409M).

 

 

[wattage]

2 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

especially if this movie drives people to the Mubi subscription service.

Here's hoping. Its a really good service so I hope this can help drive some subscriptions. 

[ThomasNicole]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

So Mubi bought it for $12.5m and then spent $10m P&A. Can’t help but think they’d be hoping for more than a $2k pta. 
 

A24 would’ve handled this better. 

You’re right but i still think this is a victory for them. It’ll be easily their biggest movie ever on the OW alone and they seems pretty excited about it, considering they still have the rights for streaming globally and a contender for award season with it.
 

They acquire a lot of things from festivais, i think 12.5M probably isn’t that much higher than buying a Park Chan Wook movie for example. And they have global rights, so they’re likely getting much of their money back making deals with local distributors. Here in Brazil they made a big partnership with Imagem Filmes for theatrical rights alone for example.

If this opens with 4M and the great WOM carries it to 15-20M DOM, along with some big partnerships to Screen it overseas, i think it’s a big deal for such an unexperienced distributor, even it really could be a semi-Longlegs in the hands of A24 or NEON.

[Eric Prime]

 

[filmlover]

The Christopher Reeve documentary is selling pretty well near me for tomorrow, considering it appears to only be on at 4:00 and 7:00. Curious what its numbers will look like.