JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Sam]

That's a pretty steep drop for MOS. With The Wolverine opening this week, I guess MOS will drop even harsher. It's a holiday weekend though, so that might help.What can we expect for The Wolverine btw?

[cremino]

Corpse

 

The Wind Rises exceeded the ¥10 Billion milestone on Wednesday, it's 54th day in release and atop the box-office. It became the 27th film in history to achieve this goal, and is the first film to do so in over 3 years.It has earned ¥10,030,608,300 ($102.7 million) with 8,106,669 admissions so far, adding ¥257,418,300 ($2.6 million) and 219,274 admissions to it's total over the past three days (Mon-Wed), down just 10.4% from last Mon-Wed. It's currently in it's 8th-consecutive week atop the box-office as it heads into the upcoming holiday weekend.

 

¥10 Billion Club01 :: ¥30.40 - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: ¥26.20 - Titanic (1997)03 :: ¥22.00 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)04 :: ¥20.30 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)05 :: ¥19.30 - Princess Mononoke (1997)06 :: ¥17.35 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)07 :: ¥17.30 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)08 :: ¥15.60 - Avatar (2009)09 :: ¥15.50 - Ponyo (2008)10 :: ¥13.70 - The Last Samurai (2003)11 :: ¥13.50 - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)11 :: ¥13.50 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)13 :: ¥13.40 - Armageddon (1998)14 :: ¥12.85 - Jurassic Park (1993)15 :: ¥12.70 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)16 :: ¥11.80 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)17 :: ¥11.00 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)17 :: ¥11.00 - Finding Nemo (2003)17 :: ¥11.00 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)17 :: ¥11.00 - Antarctic Story (1983)21 :: ¥10.90 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)22 :: ¥10.80 - Toy Story 3 (2010)23 :: ¥10.65 - Independence Day (1996)24 :: ¥10.32 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)25 :: ¥10.10 - Bayside Shakedown (1998)26 :: ¥10.03 - The Wind Rises (2013) [54 days in release]27 :: ¥10.02 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)$100 Million Club01 :: $244.0 - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: $212.0 - Titanic (1997)03 :: $207.0 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)04 :: $188.7 - Avatar (2009)05 :: $165.5 - Princess Mononoke (1997)06 :: $164.5 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)07 :: $163.7 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)08 :: $156.0 - Ponyo (2008)09 :: $147.8 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)10 :: $142.8 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)11 :: $130.7 - Toy Story 3 (2010)12 :: $126.7 - The Last Samurai (2003)13 :: $125.3 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)14 :: $125.1 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)15 :: $117.6 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)16 :: $114.9 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)17 :: $111.9 - Arrietty (2010)18 :: $102.7 - The Wind Rises (2013) [54 days in release]19 :: $102.4 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)20 :: $102.4 - Finding Nemo (2003)21 :: $100.2 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)Most-Attended Films of All-Time01 :: 23.50 million - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: 19.50 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)03 :: 16.83 million - Titanic (1997)04 :: 16.20 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)05 :: 15.00 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)06 :: 14.20 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)07 :: 14.00 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)08 :: 13.00 million - Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958)09 :: 12.87 million - Ponyo (2008)10 :: 12.60 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)11 :: 12.55 million - Godzilla Vs. King Kong (1962)12 :: 12.10 million - The Last Samurai (2003)13 :: 11.00 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)14 :: 10.69 million - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)15 :: 10.10 million - Avatar (2009)16 :: 9.61 million - Godzilla (1954)17 :: 9.00 million - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)18 :: 8.90 million - Armageddon (1998)19 :: 8.80 million - The Sinking of Japan (1973)20 :: 8.60 million - Finding Nemo (2003)21 :: 8.55 million - Jurassic Park (1993)22 :: 8.40 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)23 :: 8.34 million - The Return of Godzilla (1955)24 :: 8.30 million - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)25 :: 8.11 million - The Wind Rises (2013) [54 days in release]26 :: 8.00 million - Antarctic Story (1983)26 :: 8.00 million - The Da Vinci Code (2006)

[Olive]

Wolvie opens today.

X-men: 1.85 billion yen

X-men 2: 1.80 billion yen

X-men 3: 1.53 billion yen

XOW: 0.89 billion yen

XFC: 0.67 billion yen

[Sam]

Wolvie opens today.X-men: 1.85 billion yenX-men 2: 1.80 billion yenX-men 3: 1.53 billion yenXOW: 0.89 billion yenXFC: 0.67 billion yen

Downward spiral. Hopefully, The Wolverine can break the trend. I was thinking $15M total, but looking at this list, $10M is the goal.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

The main movie goers now in Japan are females and olds. So superhero movies hardly do well, as well as other action packed sci-fi and action movies.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast [9/14-15]

1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) ¥360 million ($3.7 million) Week 9
2 (-) Ataru: The First Love & The Last Kill (Toho) ¥340 million ($3.5 million) DEBUT
3 (-) The Wolverine: Samurai (Fox) ¥225 million ($2.3 million) DEBUT
4 (-) Unforgiven (Warner Bros.) ¥215 million ($2.2 million) DEBUT
5 (3) Man of Steel (Warner Bros.) ¥80 million ($810,000) Week 3
6 (2) Space Pirate Captain Harlock (Toei) ¥75 million ($760,000) Week 2
7 (4) Sadako 3D Part 2 (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥65 million ($660,000) Week 3
8 (5) Anohana: The Flower We Saw That Day (Aniplex) ¥60 million ($610,000) Week 3
9 (6) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) ¥45 million ($460,000) Week 7
10 (7) Monsters University (Disney) ¥40 million ($410,000) Week 11

 

Weekend Forecast [9/14-16]
(Respect For the Aged Holiday Weekend)

1 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) ¥485 million ($4.9 million) Week 9
2 (-) Ataru: The First Love & The Last Kill (Toho) ¥460 million ($4.7 million) DEBUT
3 (-) The Wolverine: Samurai (Fox) ¥305 million ($3.1 million) DEBUT
4 (-) Unforgiven (Warner Bros.) ¥290 million ($3.0 million) DEBUT
5 (3) Man of Steel (Warner Bros.) ¥115 million ($1.2 million Week 3
6 (2) Space Pirate Captain Harlock (Toei) ¥100 million ($1.0 million) Week 2
7 (4) Sadako 3D Part 2 (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥85 million ($860,000) Week 3
8 (5) Anohana: The Flower We Saw That Day (Aniplex) ¥80 million ($810,000) Week 3
9 (7) Monsters University (Disney) ¥60 million ($610,000) Week 11
10 (6) The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho) ¥55 million ($560,000) Week 7

[Olive]

I hope TWR wins this weekend, it would make its 9th-consecutive week on top.

[Olive]

Saturday toho admissions:

 

ATARU: 51480 

TWR: 29102(last week 30007　)

WOLVERINE:10850　

DM2(pre): 10750

DM2(pre,3D)5671　

WOLVERINE(3d): 5209　

Edited September 14, 2013 by Rocket Olive

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Toho Cinemas Saturday Admissions [9/14]
Admissions (%-change last-Sat) - Film (Week in Release)

51,480 (NEW) - Ataru: The First Love & The Last Kill (NEW)
29,102 (-03%) - The Wind Rises (Week 9)
21,560 (NEW) [43% 3D] - The Wolverine: Samurai (NEW)
16,421 (PREVIEWS) [34% 3D] - Despicable Me 2 (PREVIEWS)
10,666 (NEW) - Unforgiven (NEW)
7,351 (NEW) - Eagle Talon 4 (NEW)
4,275 (-43%) [46% 3D] - Space Pirate Captain Harlock (Week 2)
3,478 (-49%) [26% 3D] - Man of Steel (Week 3)
3,424 (-21%) - The After-Dinner Mysteries (Week 7)
3,323 (-48%) [69% 3D] - Sadako 3D Part 2 (Week 3)
3,176 (-35%) [54% 3D] - Star Trek Into Darkness (Week 4)
3,069 (-24%) - Anohana: The Flower We Saw That Day (Week 3)
2,885 (-40%) - Side Effects (Week 2)　
2,613 (NEW) - Code Geass: Akito the Exiled 2 (NEW)
2,291 (-26%) - Monsters University (Week 11)
1,452 (-42%) - Gatchaman (Week 4)
1,290 (-27%) - A Boy Called H (Week 6)
1,148 (-30%) - White House Down (Week 5)
997 (+13%) - Pacific Rim (Week 6)
989 (NEW) - Hyde Park on Hudson (NEW)
(Toho Cinemas represent ~20% of the nation's theaters/screens)

A few notes here:

-Saturday was the 14th, meaning it was a Toho Cinema discount day (40% off tickets). The 1st and 14th of each month are discount days at Toho and other cinema chains, and those dates have fallen on weekends a lot this year. The holds seen above probably won't hold for the weekend.

-Ataru had many stage greetings yesterday which greatly boosted it's opening day. It's expected to see a sharp decline on Sunday, so it's not a sure thing it debuted in 1st yet. However, doing over 50,000 admissions for the day at Toho Cinemas alone is quite impressive regardless and it has the advantage over The Wind Rises.

-And the Despicable Me 2 previews are almost exclusively at Toho Cinemas, as are the new Eagle Talon and Code Geass films

 

Unforgiven is a japanese remake of the Clint Eastwood movie

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Toho Cinemas Weekend Admissions [9/14-15]
Admissions (%-change last-Wknd) - Film (Week in Release)

81,398 (NEW) - Ataru: The First Love & The Last Kill (NEW)
57,785 (-11%) - The Wind Rises (Week 9)
37,193 (PREVIEWS) [36% 3D] - Despicable Me 2 (PREVIEWS)
36,271 (NEW) [45% 3D] - The Wolverine: Samurai (NEW)
20,362 (NEW) - Unforgiven (NEW)
13,512 (NEW) - Eagle Talon 4 (NEW)
8,328 (-49%) [68% 4D] - Sadako 3D Part 2 (Week 3)
7,186 (-37%) - The After-Dinner Mysteries (Week 7)
7,126 (-49%) [46% 3D] - Space Pirate Captain Harlock (Week 2)
6,039 (-55%) [29% 3D] - Man of Steel (Week 3)
5,699 (-30%) - Anohana: The Flower We Saw That Day (Week 3)
5,351 (-46%) [54% 3D] - Star Trek Into Darkness (Week 4)
5,225 (-44%) - Monsters University (Week 11)
4,278 (-50%) - Side Effects (Week 2)　
4,134 (NEW) - Code Geass: Akito the Exiled 2 (NEW)
2,671 (-51%) - Gatchaman (Week 4)
2,455 (-42%) - A Boy Called H (Week 6)
1,841 (-29%) - White House Down (Week 5)
1,583 (-02%) - Pacific Rim (Week 6)
1,450 (-42%) - The Lone Ranger (Week 7)
989 (NEW) - Hyde Park on Hudson (NEW)
(Toho Cinemas represent ~20% of the nation's theaters/screens)

Notes: Despicable Me 2 (Previews), Eagle Talon 4 and Code Geass are primarily Toho Cinemas exclusives.

That's really good for Ataru, despite dropping 40% on Sunday at Toho due to it's stage greetings and with Saturday being a discount ticket day. It probably broke 350,000 admissions and ¥400 million ($4 million) for the weekend, which would likely result in it reaching ¥3 billion ($30 million).

The Wind Rises may also stay be above ¥400 million ($4 million) again in it's ninth-weekend or end up very close to the mark. We could see a scenario of Ataru winning the weekend in admissions, but ranking 2nd in gross.

So-so for The Wolverine. I'm guessing maybe 170,000 admissions for just over ¥200 million ($2.1 million) for the weekend, and maybe ¥250 million ($2.6 million) since Friday based on Toho Cinemas results. A bit underwhelming, though it would be better than the last Wolverine and X-Men film.

With Monday being a Holiday, don't expect any figures to be released until Tuesday (unless Fox releases them for The Wolverine).

[Olive]

New cumes as of Monday:

The Wind Rises: 10.62 billion yen(all time #24)

MU: 8.89 b(all time #43)

[Olive]

3-day opening

ATARU 485.7M yen

wolverine 306.1m

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Ranking [9/14-15]



1 (-) Ataru: The First Love & The Last Kill (Toho) DEBUT
2 (1) The Wind Rises (Toho) Week 9
3 (-) The Wolverine (Fox) DEBUT
4 (-) Unforgiven (Warner Bros.) DEBUT
5 (5) Anohana: The Flower We Saw That Day (Aniplex) Week 3
6 (3) Man of Steel (Warner Bros.) Week 3
7 (2) Space Pirate Captain Harlock (Toei) Week 2
8 (4) Sadako 3D Part 2 (Kadokawa Pictures) Week 3
9 (-) Takanashi Rikka • Kai Gekijo-ban Chunibyo demo Koi ga Shitai! (Shochiku) DEBUT
10 (-) Code Geass: Akito the Exiled 2 (Showgate) DEBUT

Ataru: The First Love & The Last Kill finally dethrones The Wind Rises's reign atop the box-office to debut in first place. Playing on 304 screens, the popular drama debuted to ¥355,291,000 ($3.6 million) and 289,558 admissions over the weekend frame. A good opening, though not as strong as it's opening day and overall weekend signs were indicating. It will be on target for a ¥2.5 billion ($25 million+) total.

The Wind Rises falls to second place after enjoying 8-consecutive weeks atop the box-office. No weekend data is available, but it only dropped 8.5% week-to-week, and has now earned ¥10.62 billion ($109 million) and 8.57 million admissions after nine weeks in release.

The Wolverine opens in third place, grossing ¥184,272,800 ($1.9 million) and 138,277 admissions on 655 screens. It's a mediocre start, but is 5% ahead of Wolverine: Origins debut and 14% better than X-Men: First Class. Those two films failed to reach the ¥1 billion ($11 million) mark, so hopefully the new film can get there.

And in fourth place, the Clint Eastwood remake of Unforgiven, debuted on 327 screens to ¥143,682,900 ($1.5 million) and 128,843 admissions. The film will likely have long legs so it's tough to project a total right now, but more than ¥1 billion ($11 million) is fairly likely.

And very surprisingly, Takanashi Rikka and Code Geass managed to debut in the Top 10 despite playing very limited on only 27 and 36 screens, respectively. No weekend figures have been released for the two films yet, however.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

¥10 Billion Club
01 :: ¥30.40 - Spirited Away (2001)
02 :: ¥26.20 - Titanic (1997)
03 :: ¥22.00 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
04 :: ¥20.30 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
05 :: ¥19.30 - Princess Mononoke (1997)
06 :: ¥17.35 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
07 :: ¥17.30 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
08 :: ¥15.60 - Avatar (2009)
09 :: ¥15.50 - Ponyo (2008)
10 :: ¥13.70 - The Last Samurai (2003)
11 :: ¥13.50 - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)
11 :: ¥13.50 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
13 :: ¥13.40 - Armageddon (1998)
14 :: ¥12.85 - Jurassic Park (1993)
15 :: ¥12.70 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)
16 :: ¥11.80 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
17 :: ¥11.00 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
17 :: ¥11.00 - Finding Nemo (2003)
17 :: ¥11.00 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
17 :: ¥11.00 - Antarctic Story (1983)
21 :: ¥10.90 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
22 :: ¥10.80 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
23 :: ¥10.65 - Independence Day (1996)
24 :: ¥10.62 [after a ¥850 million week (-09%)] - The Wind Rises (2013) [58 days in release]
25 :: ¥10.32 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
26 :: ¥10.10 - Bayside Shakedown (1998)
27 :: ¥10.02 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)

The Wind Rises will pass Independence Day, Toy Story 3, Pirates of the Caribbean 3, and the four-way tie between The Matrix Reloaded, Finding Nemo, Antarctic Story and Harry Potter 4 to be the sole 17th film on this list by the end of this week.

$100 Million Club
01 :: $244.0 - Spirited Away (2001)
02 :: $212.0 - Titanic (1997)
03 :: $207.0 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
04 :: $188.7 - Avatar (2009)
05 :: $165.5 - Princess Mononoke (1997)
06 :: $164.5 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
07 :: $163.7 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
08 :: $156.0 - Ponyo (2008)
09 :: $147.8 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
10 :: $142.8 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
11 :: $130.7 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
12 :: $126.7 - The Last Samurai (2003)
13 :: $125.3 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)
14 :: $125.1 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
15 :: $117.6 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)
16 :: $114.9 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
17 :: $111.9 - Arrietty (2010)
18 :: $108.7 [after a $8.5 million week (-09%)] - The Wind Rises (2013) [58 days in release]
19 :: $102.4 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
20 :: $102.4 - Finding Nemo (2003)
21 :: $100.2 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
22 :: $100.0 - Armageddon (1998)

The Wind Rises will climb the USD list much slower than the other two due to the stronger yen (it would be over $130 million already if released in 2011/2012), but will still pass Arrietty and maybe Pirates of the Caribbean 4 this week.

Most-Attended Films of All-Time
01 :: 23.50 million - Spirited Away (2001)
02 :: 19.50 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)
03 :: 16.83 million - Titanic (1997)
04 :: 16.20 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
05 :: 15.00 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
06 :: 14.20 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)
07 :: 14.00 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
08 :: 13.00 million - Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958)
09 :: 12.87 million - Ponyo (2008)
10 :: 12.60 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
11 :: 12.55 million - Godzilla Vs. King Kong (1962)
12 :: 12.10 million - The Last Samurai (2003)
13 :: 11.00 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
14 :: 10.69 million - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)
15 :: 10.10 million - Avatar (2009)
16 :: 9.61 million - Godzilla (1954)
17 :: 9.00 million - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
18 :: 8.90 million - Armageddon (1998)
19 :: 8.80 million - The Sinking of Japan (1973)
20 :: 8.60 million - Finding Nemo (2003)
21 :: 8.57 million [after a 690,000 admission week (-07%)] - The Wind Rises (2013) [58 days in release]
22 :: 8.55 million - Jurassic Park (1993)
23 :: 8.40 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
24 :: 8.34 million - The Return of Godzilla (1955)
25 :: 8.30 million - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)
26 :: 8.00 million - Antarctic Story (1983)
27 :: 8.00 million - The Da Vinci Code (2006))

The Wind Rises should surpass 9 million admissions and Finding Nemo, Sinking of Japan, Armageddon, and Harry Potter 4 before the end of this week. From there, the quest for 10 million+ admissions begins.

[Olive]

DM2 Fri-Sun previews 310.8M yen, very good.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Saidai Blockbuster Showdown [2003-]
9th-Weekend Gross (%-change) - Film - 9-Week Total (%-change)

¥10 Billion+ Films
¥419.3 million (+21%) - The Last Samurai - ¥10.47 billion (+05%)
¥404.7 million (-20%) - Avatar - ¥11.87 billion (+08%)
¥361.7 million (-23%) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge - ¥15.21 billion (+06%)
¥343.5 million (-45%) - Howl's Moving Castle - ¥15.76 billion (+04%)
¥324.9 million (-29%) - The Wind Rises - ¥10.62 billion (+09%)
¥259.9 million (-31%) - Ponyo - ¥13.88 bllion (+03%)
¥214.9 million (-11%) - Finding Nemo - ¥10.29 billion (+03%)
¥201.2 million (-51%) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - ¥11.93 billion (+03%)
¥171.1 million (-27%) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - ¥9.13 billion (+05%)
¥150.2 million (-32%) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - ¥10.35 billion (+03%)
¥136.6 million (-46%) - Toy Story 3 - ¥10.36 billion (+04%)
¥130.9 million (-31%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - ¥10.31 billion (+04%)
¥98.5 million (-47%) - Alice in Wonderland - ¥11.38 billion (+02%)
¥97.9 million (-33%) - The Matrix Reloaded - ¥10.17 billion (+05%)
¥97.7 million (-23%) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - ¥9.54 billion (+02%)

¥9 Billion+ Films
¥104.7 million (-31%) - Arrietty - ¥8.65 billion (+03%)
¥101.9 million (-32%) - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith - ¥8.69 billion (+03%)
¥79.3 million (-22%) - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - ¥9.04 billion (+02%)
¥73.2 million (-37%) - The Da Vinci Code - ¥8.39 billion (+02%)
¥72.1 million (-35%) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - ¥9.36 billion (+02%)

The weekly showdown between The Wind Rises and The Last Samurai is the most important to watch, as it's the film The Wind Rises needs to beat (¥13.70 billion) in the end to enter the Top 10 of All-Time.

And honestly, I think this may be the last time in a very, very long time any film has a chance at making the Top 10 All-Time. The Avatar sequels will need to increase over the original in admissions to have a chance (since 3D shares have dropped over half since 2010/2011), and that's not likely. Same for Finding Dory, especially Dory, with 3D share for kid/family films going below 30% this year.

Avatar (2009) and Ponyo (2008) were the last films to enter the Top 10 All-Time, and one was the follow-up to Titanic that ignited the short 3D craze, and the other being Miyazaki's previous film who just retired. You have to go back to 2004 before finding another film make the Top 10 All-Time.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

At the same point in time (Post-Respect for the Aged Day),

2013 Vs. 2012 [Top 12 Films Comparison]
Total Gross / Admissions :: Film :: Days in Release :: Distributor

2013
01 :: ¥10.62 billion ($108.7 million) / 8.57 million :: The Wind Rises :: 58 :: Toho
02 :: ¥8.89 billion ($90.5 million) / 6.99 million :: Monsters University :: 72 :: Disney
03 :: ¥6.85 billion ($76.9 million) / 5.67 million :: One Piece Film Z :: Final Estimate :: Toei
04 :: ¥6.11 billion ($67.7 million) / 4.96 million :: Les Miserables :: Final Estimate :: Toho-Towa
05 :: ¥4.21 billion ($46.2 million) / 3.09 million :: Ted :: Final Estimate :: Toho-Towa
06 :: ¥3.96 billion ($43.2 million) / 3.64 million :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gagdet Museum :: Final Estimate :: Toho
07 :: ¥3.61 billion ($36.9 million) / 3.01 million :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea :: Final Estimate :: Toho
08 :: ¥3.26 billion ($33.9 million) / 2.67 million :: Midsummer Formula :: 79 :: Toho
09 :: ¥3.11 billion ($32.2 million) / 2.68 million :: The After-Dinner Mysteries :: 44 :: Toho
10 :: ¥3.07 billion ($31.8 million) / 2.95 million :: Pokemon BW: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens :: 65 :: Toho
11 :: ¥3.00 billion ($31.0 million) / 2.35 million :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods :: Final Estimate :: Toei
12 :: ¥2.93 billion ($31.6 million) / 2.40 million :: Wreck-It Ralph :: Final Estimate :: Disney
Total: ¥59.6 billion ($630.6 million), +21.6% (+0.1%) / 49.0 million admissions, +26.3%


2012
01 :: ¥7.16 billion ($91.0 million) / 5.65 million :: Umizaru: Brave Hearts :: 66 :: Toho
02 :: ¥5.94 billion ($76.0 million) / 4.67 million :: Thermae Romae :: Final Estimate :: Toho
03 :: ¥5.38 billion ($70.5 million) / 4.24 million :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Final Total :: Paramount
04 :: ¥3.99 billion ($50.8 million) / 3.29 million :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: 58 :: Toho
05 :: ¥3.59 billion ($45.4 million) / 3.32 million :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Final Estimate :: Toho
06 :: ¥3.48 billion ($44.4 million) / 3.33 million :: Pokemon BW: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman :: 65 :: Toho
07 :: ¥3.40 billion ($43.3 million) / 2.66 million :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Final Estimate :: Toho
08 :: ¥3.35 billion ($42.5 million) / 2.23 million :: The Avengers :: 34 :: Disney
09 :: ¥3.28 billion ($42.3 million) / 2.74 million :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Final Estimate :: Toho
10 :: ¥3.16 billion ($40.9 million) / 2.12 million :: Men in Black 3 :: Tracking Ends :: Toho-Towa
11 :: ¥3.13 billion ($40.8 million) / 2.39 million :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Final Total :: Toho
12 :: ¥3.11 billion ($39.5 million) / 2.12 million :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: Tracking Ends :: Sony
Total: ¥49.0 billion ($627.4 million) / 38.8 million admissions

[cremino]

Top Grossing Animated Films All-Time (¥3 billion+)01. Spirited Away :: ¥30.4 billion ($244 million)02. Howl's Moving Castle :: ¥22.0 billion ($207 million)03. Princess Mononoke :: ¥19.3 billion ($165.5 million)04. Ponyo :: ¥15.5 billion ($156 million)05. Finding Nemo :: ¥11.0 billion ($102.4 million)06. Toy Story 3 :: ¥10.8 billion ($130.7 million)07. The Wind Rises :: ¥10.62 billion ($108.7 million) [9 Weeks in Release]08. Monsters, Inc. :: ¥9.37 billion ($76.8 million)09. Arrietty :: ¥9.25 billion ($111.9 million)10. Monsters University :: ¥8.89 billion ($90.5 million) [11 Weeks in Release]11. Tales from Earthsea :: ¥7.65 billion ($62.9 million)12. Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back! :: ¥7.54 billion ($67.8 million)13. One Piece Film Z :: ¥6.85 billion ($76.9 million) [Final Estimate]14. The Cat Returns :: ¥6.46 billion ($54.4 million)15. Pokemon: The Power of One :: ¥6.36 billion ($64.8 million)16. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo :: ¥5.30 billion ($64.0 million)17. The Incredibles :: ¥5.26 billion ($51.1 million)18. Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai :: ¥5.02 billion ($47.2 million)19. Up :: ¥5.00 billion ($60.5 million)20. Dinosaur :: ¥4.90 billion ($42.1 million)21. Pokemon: Spell of the Unown :: ¥4.85 billion ($45.8 million)22. One Piece Film Strong World :: ¥4.80 billion ($58.1 million)23. Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior :: ¥4.80 billion ($53.3 million)24. Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus and the Jewel of Life :: ¥4.67 billion ($51.6 million)25. Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi - Wishmaker :: ¥4.50 billion ($38.4 million)26. From Kokuriko Hill :: ¥4.47 billion ($57.8 million)27. Pokemon Advanced: Destiny Deoxys :: ¥4.38 billion ($39.1 million)28. Pokemon Best Wishes: White - Victini and Zekrom / Black - Victini and Reshiram :: ¥4.33 billion ($56.1 million)29. Pokemon Advanced: Lucario and the Mystery of Mew :: ¥4.30 billion ($38.9 million)30. The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: ¥4.22 billion ($53.9 million)31. Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Zoroark - Master of Illusions :: ¥4.16 billion ($50.3 million)32. Porco Rosso :: ¥4.05 billion ($32.5 million)33. Wall-E :: ¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million)34. Evangelion 2.0: You Can (Not) Advance :: ¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million)35. Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum :: ¥3.96 billion ($43.2 million) [Final Estimate]36. Ratatouille :: ¥3.90 billion ($36.3 million)37. Pokemon: Celebi - Voice of the Forest :: ¥3.90 billion ($32.5 million)38. Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: ¥3.62 billion ($46.2 million)39. Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman :: ¥3.61 billion ($46.1 million)40. Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea :: ¥3.61 billion ($36.9 million) [Final Estimate]41. Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure into the Underworld :: ¥3.54 billion ($30.0 million)42. Detective Conan: The Raven Chaser :: ¥3.50 billion ($35.6 million)43. Toy Story 2 :: ¥3.45 billion ($29.9 million)44. Pokemon Advanced: Pokemon Ranger and the Temple of the Sea :: ¥3.40 billion ($28.2 million)45. Detective Conan: The Phantom of Barker Street :: ¥3.40 billion ($30.3 million)46. Doraemon: Nobita and the Green Giant Legend :: ¥3.37 billion ($32.1 million)47. Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: ¥3.28 billion ($42.3 million)48. Doraemon: Nobita's Dinosaur :: ¥3.28 billion ($27.6 million)49. Detective Conan: Crossroad in the Ancient Capital :: ¥3.20 billion ($28.6 million)50. Detective Conan: Lost Ship in the Sky :: ¥3.20 billion ($35.2 million)51. Doraemon: Nobita's Great Merman Sea Adventure :: ¥3.16 billion ($33.6 million)52. Detective Conan: 15 Minutes of Silence :: ¥3.13 billion ($39.85 million)53. Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens :: ¥3.07 billion ($31.8 million) [7 Weeks in Release]54. Doraemon: Nobita and the Legend of the Sun King :: ¥3.05 billion ($29.0 million)55. Doraemon: Nobita's Wannyan Space-Time Odyssey :: ¥3.05 billion ($28.9 million)56. Detective Conan: The Private Eyes' Requiem :: ¥3.03 billion ($26.8 million)57. Cars 2 :: ¥3.01 billion ($39.0 million)58. Doraemon: Nobita and the Winged Braves :: ¥3.00 billion ($25.8 million)59. Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods :: ¥3.00 billion ($31.0 million) [Final Estimate]2013 New Entries

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Biggest Film Franchises (Revenue)01. ¥96.57 billion ($903 million) :: Harry Potter [8 Films], 2001-201102. ¥71.72 billion ($671 million) :: Doraemon [34 Films], 1980-03. ¥71.56 billion ($692 million) :: Pokemon [16 Films], 1998-04. ¥44.62 billion ($467 million) :: Detective Conan [17 Films], 1997-05. ¥40.73 billion ($412 million) :: Bayside Shakedown [4 Films], 1998-201206. ¥40.04 billion ($323 million) :: Star Wars [6 Films], 1978-07. ¥36.65 billion ($361 million) :: Pirates of the Caribbean [4 Films], 2003-08. ¥28.93 billion ($255 million) :: The Lord of the Rings [4 Films], 2002-09. ¥27.48 billion ($253 million) :: Jurassic Park [3 Films], 1993-10. ¥26.40 billion ($231 million) :: The Matrix [3 Films], 1999-2003Biggest Film Franchises (Admissions)01. 101.81 million :: Doraemon [34 Films], 1980-02. 99.25 million :: Godzilla [28 Films], 1954-200403. 80.80 million :: Otoko wa Tsurai yo [48 Films], 1969-199504. 77.35 million :: Harry Potter [8 Films], 2001-201105. 66.69 million :: Pokemon [16 Films], 1998-06. 37.31 million :: Detective Conan [17 Films], 1997-07. 32.10 million :: Star Wars [6 Films], 1978-08. 30.92 million :: Bayside Shakedown [4 Films], 1998-201209. 27.11 million :: Pirates of the Caribbean [4 Films], 2003-10. 21.38 million :: The Lord of the Rings [4 Films], 2002Upcoming Top Franchise Films: Doraemon 35 (March 2014), Detective Conan 18 (April 2014), Jurassic World (Summer 2014), Pokemon 17 (July 2014), Doraemon 36 (March 2015), Detective Conan 19 (April 2015), Star Wars: Episode VII (Summer 2015), Pokemon 18 (July 2015), Pirates of the Caribbean 5 (TBD)

Edited September 21, 2013 by eren jaeger

[lab276]

If you made Ghibli into a franchise, how successful would it be?