JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Olive]

TA opened last year during Obon holiday/festival and that definitely helped its gross. So let's hope IM3 can get some good boost from the Golden Holiday week 

May has more holidays than August in Japan!

[cremino]

Weekend Estimates (4/20-21)

 

1 (-) Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Toho) ¥641 million ($6.6 million), 0, DEBUT!
2 (-) Crayon Shin-chan: Very Tasty! Gourmet Survival Class (Toho) ¥217 million ($2.2 million), 0, DEBUT!
3 (-) Lincoln (Disney) ¥171 million ($1.8 million), 0, DEBUT!
4 (1) Dragonball Z: Battle of Gods (Toei) ¥145 million ($1.5 million), -36%, Week 4
5 (2) Wreck-It Ralph (Disney) ¥104 million ($1.1 million), -38%, Week 5
6 (3) We Knit Ship (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) ¥72 million ($735,000), -37%, Week 2
7 (4) Platinum Data (Toho) ¥53 million ($540,000), -43%, Week 6
8 (5) Chinese Zodiac (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥48 million ($485,000), -47%, Week 2
9 (6) Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Toho) ¥44 million ($450,000), -50%, Week 7
10 (7) Aibou Series: X-Day (Toei) ¥42 million ($430,000), -48%, Week 5

Well, well. If this estimate holds, the 17th Detective Conan film just set a franchise opening record. Literally ever major anime film released since November have been breaking franchise records on opening weekend and in total gross. This year's film will have no problem earning over ¥3 billion ($35 million) again. This also marks the 7th-consecutive weekend an animated film has been #1 at the box-office, and the 12th time out of the past 18 weekends.

Even Crayon Shin-chan is estimated to have opened a bit higher than it normally does, though it's short of 2010's franchise record of ¥270 million.

Overall, Sunday was a strong day for the openers, but a relatively weak day for the holdovers when compared to Saturday

[cjk]

Weekend Estimates (4/20-21)

 

1 (-) Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Toho) ¥641 million ($6.6 million), 0, DEBUT!

2 (-) Crayon Shin-chan: Very Tasty! Gourmet Survival Class (Toho) ¥217 million ($2.2 million), 0, DEBUT!

3 (-) Lincoln (Disney) ¥171 million ($1.8 million), 0, DEBUT!

4 (1) Dragonball Z: Battle of Gods (Toei) ¥145 million ($1.5 million), -36%, Week 4

5 (2) Wreck-It Ralph (Disney) ¥104 million ($1.1 million), -38%, Week 5

6 (3) We Knit Ship (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) ¥72 million ($735,000), -37%, Week 2

7 (4) Platinum Data (Toho) ¥53 million ($540,000), -43%, Week 6

8 (5) Chinese Zodiac (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥48 million ($485,000), -47%, Week 2

9 (6) Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Toho) ¥44 million ($450,000), -50%, Week 7

10 (7) Aibou Series: X-Day (Toei) ¥42 million ($430,000), -48%, Week 5

Well, well. If this estimate holds, the 17th Detective Conan film just set a franchise opening record. Literally ever major anime film released since November have been breaking franchise records on opening weekend and in total gross. This year's film will have no problem earning over ¥3 billion ($35 million) again. This also marks the 7th-consecutive weekend an animated film has been #1 at the box-office, and the 12th time out of the past 18 weekends.

Even Crayon Shin-chan is estimated to have opened a bit higher than it normally does, though it's short of 2010's franchise record of ¥270 million.

Overall, Sunday was a strong day for the openers, but a relatively weak day for the holdovers when compared to Saturday

 

Chinese Zodiac , a terrile drop

[cremino]

Weekend Ranking (4/20-21)

1 (-) Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Toho) DEBUT!
2 (-) Crayon Shin-chan: Very Tasty ! Gourmet Survival Class (Toho) DEBUT!
3 (-) Lincoln (Disney) DEBUT!
4 (1) Dragonball Z: Battle of Gods (Toei) Week 4
5 (2) Wreck-It Ralph (Disney) Week 5
6 (3) We Knit Ship (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) Week 2
7 (-) Steins; Gate: Fuka Ryoiki no Deja vup (Kadokawa Pictures) DEBUT!
8 (4) Chinese Zodiac (Kadokawa Pictures) Week 2
9 (6) Platinum Data (Toho) Week 6
10 (5) Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Toho) Week 7

Detective Conan opens higher than estimates and sets a franchise record in both gross and admissions, opening 6.6% higher than last year's film. It earned a splendid ¥671,548,700 ($6.86 million) / 565,914 admissions over the weekend on 344 screens. This opening will allow the film to cruise over ¥3 billion ($32 million) and likely reach ¥3.5 billion ($37 million). I don't know what it is, but this is the year for anime films that's for sure. They just keep breaking records.

It's main audience were people in the 20s (26.6%), followed by 16-19 year olds (22.7%), and finally those in their 40s (16.8%).

Crayon Shin-chan performed very well, too, earning ¥225,337,650 ($2.29 million) / 199,993 admissions over the weekend on 324 screens. Last year's film was the first in several years to miss the ¥1 billion ($11 million) milestone, but this year's film should have little trouble getting back there.

Lincoln had to settle for third place taking in ¥162,894,000 ($1.67 million) / 137,546 admissions over the 2-day weekend on 334 screens. As expected, it skewed quite old with an avg. ticket price below ¥1,200.

Steins Gate delivered a mighty impressive opening in seventh place on only 18 screens earning ¥86,822,800 ($886,000) / 57,334 admissions. That gives it a huge 2-Day PSA of ¥4.82 million ($49,000).

[cremino]

Top 20 Opening Weekends (2-Day) [Animated Features]

01. ¥1,483,804,112 ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 [448 scr] :: Howl's Moving Castle (Nov '04)
02. ¥1,372,053,540 ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 [300 scr] :: One Piece Film Z (Dec '12)
03. ¥1,133,513,323 ($14.1 million) / 771,764 [223 scr] :: Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov '12)
04. ¥1,038,445,263 ($11.9 million) / 819,738 [190 scr] :: One Piece Film Strong World (Dec '09)
05. ¥1,034,459,534 ($9.8 million) / 812,557 [481 scr] :: Ponyo (July '08)
06. ¥1,009,000,000 ($8.9 million) / 810,000 [318 scr] :: Spirited Away (July '01)
07. ¥977,332,877 ($11.1 million) / 649,299 [530 scr] :: Toy Story 3 (July '10)
08. ¥907,474,607 ($7.9 million) / 672,696 [435 scr] :: Tales from Earthsea (July '06)
09. ¥898,000,000 ($8.4 million) / 724,000 [654 scr] :: Finding Nemo (Dec '04)
10. ¥895,562,657 ($10.4 million) / 680,190 [447 scr] :: The Borrower Arrietty (July '10)
11. ¥780,871,178 ($6.5 million) / 742,978 [351 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: The Rise of Darkrai (July '07)
12. ¥751,852,208 ($7.3 million) / 604,355 [689 scr] :: The Incredibles (Dec '04)
13. ¥703,799,691 ($6.7 million) / 670,285 [359 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (July '08)
14. ¥683,924,835 ($7.3 million) / 561,098 [312 scr] :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods (Mar '13)
15. ¥672,566,497 ($7.1 million) / 641,700 [366 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (July '09)
16. ¥671,548,700 ($6.9 million) / 565,914 [344 scr] :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Apr '13)
17. ¥667,291,740 ($7.2 million) / 597,899 [353 scr] :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Mar '13)
18. ¥629,740,742 ($7.7 million) / 540,975 [351 scr] :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Apr '12)
19. ¥629,544,583 ($7.2 million) / 600,602 [369 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: Zoroark - Master of Illusion (July '10)
20. ¥627,730,027 ($7.2 million) / 440,804 [663 scr] :: Up (Dec '09)

Five films in the just the past 6 months have debuted on this list.

Upcoming major animated titles: Monsters University (July 6th), Pokemon BW: ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens (July 13th), The Wind Rises (July 20th), The Tale of Princess Kaguya (Fall/Winter 2013), Evangelion 4.0: Final (TBA 2013/2014).

[Olive]

Toho Cinema Screenings (4/27)

Openers:
Iron Man 3 - 448
Library Wars - 303
Shield of Straw - 284
Kamen Rider × Super Sentai × Space Sheriff: Super Hero Taisen Z - 231
The Last Stand - 221
Killing Them Softly - 126
Thomas & Friends: Mystery of the Blue Mountains - 109

Holdovers:
Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea - 306 (-83), Week 2
Crayon Shin-chan: Very Tasty! Gourmet Survival Class - 210 (-78), Week 2 
Lincoln - 179 (-112), Week 2
Dragonball Z: Battle of Gods - 143 (-80), Week 5
Chinese Zodiac - 121 (-157), Week 3
We Knit Ship - 88 (-120), Week 3
Platinum Data - 60 (-110), Week 7
Hana Kappa: The Movie - 55 (-49), Week 3
Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum - 54 (-57), Week 8
Wreck-It Ralph - 52 (-189), Week 6
Aibou Series: X-Day - 43 (-108), Week 6
Steins; Gate: Fuka Ryoiki no Deja vu - 41 (-6), Week 2
Les Miserables - 5 (-7), Week 19
Nobody's Perfect 3 - 3 (-58), Week 5

[Olive]

Theater Counts (4/27)WIDEIron Man 3 (Paramount) [324]Straw of Shield (Warner Bros.) [324]Library Wars (Toho) [311]Kamen Rider × Super Sentai × Space Sheriff: Super Hero Taisen Z (Toei) [289]The Last Stand (Shochiku) [266]Killing Them Softly (Presido) [161]LIMITEDThomas & Friends: Mystery of the Blue Mountains (Uplink) [93]Jellyfish Eyes (Gaga) [10]Monster (Toei) [9]Now Is Good (Kino Films) [8]Iron Man 3, Shield of Straw, and Killing Them Softly are opening on Friday.Warner Bros. has a lot of confidence in Shield of Straw. The film has a good plot and a strong cast and might end up their top grossing film this year (since Pacific Rim's release is still unknown). Let's see if their plan of exiting as an exhibitor in the market to focus on distributing local films pays off.

[Olive]

 

Corpse

 

Iron Man 2 made more than that. BOM undertracks most films in the market. 

Iron Man 2 grossed ¥1.2 billion (~$13.9 million) released outside of any holidays. I see Iron Man 3 grossing between ¥2-3 billion ($22-32 million) with the Golden Week boost next week.

 

 

[Olive]

Top Grossing [imported] Superhero Films1. Spider-Man - ¥7.50 billion ($59 million) #6 Film of 20022. Spider-Man 3 - ¥7.12 billion ($67 million) #4 Film of 20073. Spider-Man 2 - ¥6.70 billion ($61 million) #7 Film of 20044. The Incredibles - ¥5.26 billion ($52 million) #6 Film of 20055. The Avengers - ¥3.61 billion ($46 million) #9 Film of 2012 (tie w/Pokemon 15)6. The Amazing Spider-Man - ¥3.16 billion ($39 million)7. Hancock - ¥3.10 billion ($30 million)8. Batman - ¥3.00 billion ($20 million) #7 Film of 19909. Superman II - ¥2.55 billion ($12 million) #5 Film of 198110. The Dark Knight Rises - ¥1.97 million ($24 million)11. X-Men - ¥1.85 billion ($18 million)12. X2: X-Men United - ¥1.80 billion ($16 million)13. The Dark Knight - ¥1.60 billion ($16 million)14. X-Men: The Last Stand - ¥1.53 billion ($14 million)15. Superman Returns - ¥1.50 billion ($12 million)16. Batman Begins - ¥1.40 billion ($14 million)17. Iron Man 2 - ¥1.20 billion ($14 million)Fantastic Four ¥950 million ($10 million)Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer ¥900 million ($9 million)X-Men Origins: Wolverine ¥900 million ($10 million)Hulk ¥850 million ($8 million)Iron Man ¥800 million ($9 million)X-Men: First Class ¥750 million ($8 million)Thor ¥550 million ($7 million)Captain America ¥400 million ($5 million)The Incredible Hulk ¥250 million ($2 million)Green Lantern ¥200 million ($2 million)Anything over ¥5 billion is considered a Blockbuster, over ¥3 billion a Box-Office Hit, and over ¥1 billion a Commercial Success.

[fmpro]

I still see 35-40 mill

[cremino]

Top Grossing [imported] Superhero Films1. Spider-Man - ¥7.50 billion ($59 million) #6 Film of 20022. Spider-Man 3 - ¥7.12 billion ($67 million) #4 Film of 20073. Spider-Man 2 - ¥6.70 billion ($61 million) #7 Film of 20044. The Incredibles - ¥5.26 billion ($52 million) #6 Film of 20055. The Avengers - ¥3.61 billion ($46 million) #9 Film of 2012 (tie w/Pokemon 15)6. The Amazing Spider-Man - ¥3.16 billion ($39 million)7. Hancock - ¥3.10 billion ($30 million)8. Batman - ¥3.00 billion ($20 million) #7 Film of 19909. Superman II - ¥2.55 billion ($12 million) #5 Film of 198110. The Dark Knight Rises - ¥1.97 million ($24 million)11. X-Men - ¥1.85 billion ($18 million)12. X2: X-Men United - ¥1.80 billion ($16 million)13. The Dark Knight - ¥1.60 billion ($16 million)14. X-Men: The Last Stand - ¥1.53 billion ($14 million)15. Superman Returns - ¥1.50 billion ($12 million)16. Batman Begins - ¥1.40 billion ($14 million)17. Iron Man 2 - ¥1.20 billion ($14 million)

[cremino]

From Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast (4/27-28)

 

1 (1) Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Toho) ¥415 million ($4.3 million) Week 2
2 (-) Iron Man 3 (Disney) ¥380 million ($3.9 million) DEBUT! [324 theaters]
3 (-) Library Wars (Toho) ¥360 million ($3.7 million) DEBUT! [311 theaters]
4 (-) Kamen Rider x Super Sentei x Space Sheriff: Super Hero Z (Toei) ¥325 million ($3.3 million) DEBUT! [289 theaters]
5 (-) A Shield of Straw (Warner Bros.) ¥290 million ($3.0 million) DEBUT! [324 theaters]
6 (2) Crayon Shin-chan: Very Tasty! Gourmet Survival Class (Toho) ¥150 million ($1.6 million) Week 2
7 (3) Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods (Toei) ¥95 million ($1.0 million) Week 5
8 (-) The Last Stand (Shochiku) ¥80 million ($820,000) DEBUT! [266 theaters]
9 (5) Wreck-It Ralph (Disney) ¥65 million ($665,000) Week 6
10 (7) We Knit Ship (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) ¥55 million ($560,000) Week 3

Now THIS is a crowded weekend and should be one of the biggest of the year. It's unusual to see so many major films opening so close, or in this case, against each other outside of July/August. No one was willing to budge from having that Golden Week (4/29-5/5) boost.

Detective Conan I believe has the slight edge since it's unlikely to earn less than ¥400 million in it's second weekend and may push ¥450 million, and ¥400/450 million will be a difficult number for the openers to reach. It's not impossible, though, three/four of them have potential to open over the mark.

Iron Man 3 will open similarly as The Dark Knight Rises last year I believe, giving it about a 40/45% increase over Iron Man 2's opening weekend.

Library Wars is generating solid buzz, opening in 300+ theaters, directed by Shinsuke Sato (Gantz), plus it has Toho behind it. Not to mention the fans of the novel/anime. It's success is pretty certain.

Kamen Rider is pretty easy to predict since the films typically open somewhere between ¥300-400 million three times a year.

A Shield of Straw is probably the biggest wildcard this weekend. Besides Death Note and Rurouni Kenshin which have strong fanbases, I don't recall any notable local live-action films Warner Bros. have released. They are however giving it a very wide release, it's ranking high on all online sites, and has a favorable cast.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Only 324 theaters for IM3.

Edited April 27, 2013 by firedeep

[Bob Violence]

A Shield of Straw is probably the biggest wildcard this weekend. Besides Death Note and Rurouni Kenshin which have strong fanbases, I don't recall any notable local live-action films Warner Bros. have released.

 

They released both of the Outrage films.

Edited April 27, 2013 by Bob Violence

[Bob Violence]

Only 324 theaters for IM3.

 

Theater count doesn't tell us much about screen count though. Oz had "only" 329 theaters but nearly 600 screens...not that it helped much.

Edited April 27, 2013 by Bob Violence

[cremino]

Saturday Estimates (4/27)

1 Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Toho) ¥191 million ($2.0 million) Week 2
2 Iron Man 3 (Disney) ¥173 million ($1.8 million) DEBUT!
3 Kamen Rider x Super Sentei x Space Sheriff: Super Hero Z (Toei) ¥133 million ($1.4 million) DEBUT!
4 Library Wars (Toho) ¥116 million ($1.2 million) DEBUT!
5 A Shield of Straw (Warner Bros.) ¥94 million ($1.0 million) DEBUT!
6 Crayon Shin-chan: Very Tasty! Gourmet Survival Class (Toei) ¥81 million ($825,000) Week 2
7 Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods (Toei) ¥44 million ($450,000) Week 5
8 The Last Stand (Shochiku) ¥35 million ($360,000) DEBUT!
9 Lincoln (Disney) ¥33 million ($340,000) Week 2
10 Wreck-It Ralph (Disney) ¥20 million ($210,000) Week 6
11 We Knit Ship (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) ¥20 million ($205,000) Week 3
12 Steins: Gate: Fuka Ryoiki no Deja vu (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥19 million ($200,000) Week 2
13 Killing Them Softly (Presido) ¥19 million ($200,000) DEBUT!
14 Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Toho) ¥15 million ($155,000) Week 8
15 Platinum Data (Toho) ¥14 million ($145,000) Week 7

Great start for Iron Man 3. That's about a 35% increase over Iron Man 2's opening day, and a 60% increase over Iron Man's opening day. I'm guessing the weekend figure comes in around ¥330-350 million ($3.4-3.6 million). It also opened on Friday, so the 3-day total may break ¥400 million ($4.2 million). And with Golden Week, it should have no trouble reaching ¥2-2.5 billion ($25 millionish) or about double Iron Man 2's total.

Not-so-good for Kamen Rider. The last few films haven't been doing as well as those released between 2008-2011 for some reason. It should still do over ¥250 million for the weekend, though, which will be enough to earn the franchise yet another ¥1 billion success.

Also a little underwhelming for Library Wars and Shield of Straw. Late-April opening aren't always impressive though because of people waiting for Golden Week, so don't count them out. Most people have the entire week off (4/29-5/5), which leaves a lot of space for legs. Golden Week, along with Obon and New Year, can be 3/4x greater than the weekend grosses.

The numbers for the holdovers are very rough estimates, too. Last Saturday was a Movix Cinema Discount Day (tickets half-off). Normally using a 10% figure to account for these days has been fairly reliable in the past, which is how the estimates above came about.

[Olive]

Pacific Rim finally gets a release date so I can now post this Summer's release schedule:

Upcoming Release Schedule (May-August)
(Major Studios and Notable Releases)

May 3
Gangster Squad (Warner Bros.)
Evil Dead (Sony)
Codename: Jackal (Showgate)

May 10
Saint Brother (Toho Video Division)

May 11
Bar Detectives 2 (Toei) 
Prefecture Government's Hospitality Division (Toho)
I Am A King (Pony Canyon)

May 17
Gambit (Gaga)

May 18
The Complex (Shochiku)
Middle-School Student Maruyama (Toei)
3 Idiots (Nikkatsu)

May 25
Kiss (Toei)
Taishibokei Tanita no Shain Shokudo (Kadokawa Pictures)
My Werewolf Boy (CJ Entertainment)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Fanifiru)
Celeste and Jesse Forever (Clockworks)

May 31
Oblivion (Toho-Towa)
Reverend King Ichidai: The Grandmasters (Gaga)
Stoker (Fox)
Garden of Kotonoha (Toho Video Division)

[National Holidays in May]
Golden Week (4/29-5/5)
A collection of five national holidays.
Constitution Day (5/3)
A national holiday remembering the new constitution, which was put into effect after the war
Greenery Day (5/4)
A day to celebrate plants and nature. 
Children's Day (5/5)
Families pray for the health and future success of their sons.

[Olive]

June 1Real (Toho)Bullet to the Head (Shochiku)Way of the Beginning (Shochiku)A Company Man (Pony Canyon)June 8Miracle Apples (Toho)G.I. Joe: Retaliation (Paramount)Olympus Has Fallen (Asmik Ace)To Rome with Love (Long Ride)June 14The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros.)The Impossible (Presido)Screaming Class (Toho Video Division)June 15Figyua na Anata (Kadokawa Pictures)I've Not Done My Best! (Shochiku)Contraband (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)Gone (Showgate)Spring Breakers (Transformer)June 21After Earth (Sony)June 22To Cry 100 Times (Showgate)Ghost in the Shell: Arise (Toho Video Division)June 28The Hangover Part III (Warner Bros.)Song of Marion (Asmik Ace)June 29A Midsummer's Equation (Toho)Lawless (Gaga)[National Holidays in June]NONE*****************************************************July 6Monsters University (Disney)Fast & Furious 6 (Toho-Towa)Gintama: The Final Chapter (Warner Bros.)Ninja Kids!!! 2 (Toei)Anpanman: Handkerchief of Hope (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)July 12Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (Presido)July 13Pokemon BW: ExtremeSpeed Genesect: Mewtwo Awakens (Toho)Texas Chainsaw 3D (Nikkatsu)Bereurlin (CJ Entertainment)July 20The Wind Rises (Toho) [studio Ghibli, Hayao Miyazaki]July 26Hope Springs (Gaga)July 27Emperor (Shochiku)The Paperboy (Nikkatsu)[National Holidays in July]Ocean Day (7/15)National holiday to celebrate the Ocean. The day also marks the return of Emperor Meiji.*****************************************************August 2The Lone Ranger (Disney)August 3The After-Dinner Mysteries (Toho)August 9Pacific Rim (Warner Bros.)August 10World War Z (Toho-Towa)Boy H (Toho)August Wars (Broad Media Studios)August 14Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (Fox)August 16White House Down (Sony)The Smurfs 2 (Toho-Towa)August 17Playing for Keeps (Nikkatsu)August 23Star Trek Into Darkness (Paramount)August 24Gatchaman: The Movie (Toho)Hakuouki: Time Restarted - Chapter 1 (Clockworks)August 30Man of Steel (Warner Bros.)Sadako 3D Part 2 (Kadokawa Pictures)August 31End of Summer (Clockworks)Time Scoop Hunter (Gaga)Anohana: The Flower We Saw That Day (Aniplex)[National Holidays in August]Obon Festival (8/10-18)Event to commemorate one's ancestors. It is believed that during this time, the spirits return to this world to visit their relatives.

[fmpro]

MoS on Aug 30th

[lab276]

I suppose The Wind Rises will be the biggest film. Could it beat Ponyo or even possibly Howl's Moving Castle?