The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[Rovex]

So what you are saying is that the OS market will contract rather than expand for this over LOTR in terms of DOM/OS split, even though that hasnt happened for other franchises, whatever the quality of the movie.Thats the only way this is making less than 900M.

[keysersoze123]

ROTK made 743M. for hobbit to make 900M it needs to make around 10% more(USD) in major markets plus make up the rest through china/russia/brazil/mexico. But it looks like its going to lose ground to ROTK in markets like Japan(Big time), Germany and United Kingdom. I am not convinced its going to replicate success in countries like sweden as well. That makes it very tough to even make ROTK unadjusted forget about 900M. But we will have better perspective in another day or so.

[Elessar]

So what you are saying is that the OS market will contract rather than expand for this over LOTR in terms of DOM/OS split, even though that hasnt happened for other franchises, whatever the quality of the movie.Thats the only way this is making less than 900M.

Unless it makes only like $300m domestically. Edited December 13, 2012 by Elessar

[Olive]

South KoreaOD 158k adm.weak, wait to see how it goes thiss weekend.Given the same multiplier as MI4, which had amazing legs.TH will finish within the range of 4.0-4.5M admissions.

Edited December 13, 2012 by Olive

[A Marvel Fanboy]

And I am thinking around 300M DOM now, again ...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

South KoreaOD 158kweak, wait to see how it goes thiss weekend.

horrible ...

[keysersoze123]

South KoreaOD 158kweak, wait to see how it goes thiss weekend.

any comparisons to ROTK(and other BB like TDKR or Avengers) and what is the expected weekend gross in USD. ROTK just grossed over 28M USD and so it wont be that hard to beat it(Is that like 3M admissions? ). Edited December 13, 2012 by keysersoze123

[Elessar]

South KoreaOD 158kweak, wait to see how it goes thiss weekend.

Give some other movies for comparison. How did the LOTRs do? Edited December 13, 2012 by Elessar

[Fake]

Perfectly well. 900M is still very much possible. I still think its just in the low end of estimates.

900M is possible but on the high end. If the movie had great reception I would have agreed with you, but it does not.

[Olive]

And average ticket price is $7.5 for TH in SK.4-4.5m admissions = 30-33M in dollars.

[Olive]

Can't find historical data.MI4 had the same release date last year, whch is a good comparsion.

[Rovex]

And I am thinking around 300M DOM now, again ...

This is the problem you are pitching the DOM too low. Its NOT getting a bad reception because its not out yet. Critics reviews are fairly meaningless, not many people even read them. $300M is simply not going to happen, its going to be a lot more than that.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

SK is an quickly expanding market in past 10 years. Looks Hobbit is just on par with ROTK in $. Not that promsing.

[keysersoze123]

Give some other movies for comparison. How did the LOTRs do?

To my knowledge TDKR opened to 440K back in july. Even TASM also opened around the same number. Avengers probably opened higher. TF3 probably opened close to 800K admissions.

Pathetic number for hobbit. at this point I dont see it doing crazy good in any major market.

[John Marston]

All depends on audience reception

[Rovex]

900M is possible but on the high end. If the movie had great reception I would have agreed with you, but it does not.

With who? The GA hasnt seen it yet and they are paying. Critical reviews are meaningless. Poor reviews didnt stop TPM or the Twilight series getting good bank.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

This is the problem you are pitching the DOM too low. Its NOT getting a bad reception because its not out yet. Critics reviews are fairly meaningless, not many people even read them. $300M is simply not going to happen, its going to be a lot more than that.

Yeah, people dont read every reviews. They just see its RT score. And everybody knows/hears HFR doesnot work.

[Rovex]

Its around 75% which is positive and HFR is a minority presentation. Im probably the only person i know that even knows RT exists at all.

[Fake]

South KoreaOD 158k adm.weak, wait to see how it goes thiss weekend.Given the same multiplier as MI4, which had amazing legs.TH will finish within the range of 4.0-4.5M admissions.

Okay opening.And I doubt it gets MI4 legs.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Its around 75% which is positive and HFR is a minority presentation. Im probably the only person i know that even knows RT exists at all.

Nah, RT is the (second) biggest moviesite in the world. Million people visist that site every day.