The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[Rudolf]

One thing is sure: With nearly 3 hours running time and many differnet options, this will take a substantial share of every movie theater's screens. atm there are 5 (five!) different formats available at mine:- 3D HFR dubbed- 3D HFR original- 3D dubbed- 3D original- 2D dubbedif nothing else, The Hobbit will at least leave the competition starving for screens.

Apollo IMAX Vienna:Also viewable as:3D Digital, IMAX 3D, Digital Cinema, OV, OmU, D-Box Motion Seats, IMAX 48HFR 3D, 48HFR 3DOV original version (in English)OmU original with subtitlesD-Box Motion Seats http://www.d-box.com/standard is of course 2D dubbed in Germanyou feel like in a Starbucks cafepoor Americans will complain again about being forced to see it in 3D Edited December 1, 2012 by Rudolf

[A Marvel Fanboy]

We wont have any 2D copy for it at all !

[Rudolf]

We wont have any 2D copy for it at all !

so not so much difference living in China or America?

[DeeCee]

It has to compete with Les Mis and Wreck it Ralph for screens in Australia.

[Fullbuster]

so not so much difference living in China or America?

?

[Rudolf]

?

both are forced to watch movies in 3D

[Fullbuster]

both are forced to watch movies in 3D

Sad, mostly for Americans given they're not big fans of 3D, Chinese people like it so it's ok for them I guess

[A Marvel Fanboy]

both are forced to watch movies in 3D

They do have enough 2D copies for 3D movies in NA actually.

[Rudolf]

They do have enough 2D copies for 3D movies in NA actually.

I hear them always complaining not to have a cinema with a 2D copy within driving distance.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I hear them always complaining not to have a cinema with a 2D copy within driving distance.

They live too dispersedly ...

[JCS]

So many different formats, even in the UK!But HFR (48 FPS) is the same price, here at least, so only 3D will add to gross.

[Rovex]

You can try to break it down country to country, but the easiest way is just to check the LOTR splits. It was about 35/65. Given that the international market has expanded a lot more than the US market, its a shorter movie, its gained awareness over the last 10 years and that 3D does better internationally i dont think its unreasonable to expect a 28/72 split this time round, as many movies do. Just feed in your DOM gross of choice.350M = 900m OS400M = 1.028B OS450M = 1.157B OSThis follows the trend of Fantasy generally. Harry Potters split slowly increased toward the OS gross as the years went on, as did LOTR. The only movies that dont do this are the American cultural icons like SW, TA, Batman, Spiderman etc, they are relatively less popular OS.

Edited December 3, 2012 by Rovex

[peludo]

You can try to break it down country to country, but the easiest way is just to check the LOTR splits. It was about 35/65. Given that the international market has expanded a lot more than the US market, its a shorter movie, its gained awareness over the last 10 years and that 3D does better internationally i dont think its unreasonable to expect a 28/72 split this time round, as many movies do. Just feed in your DOM gross of choice.350M = 900m OS400M = 1.028B OS450M = 1.157B OSThis follows the trend of Fantasy generally. Harry Potters split slowly increased toward the OS gross as the years went on, as did LOTR. The only movies that dont do this are the American cultural icons like SW, TA, Batman, Spiderman etc, they are relatively less popular OS.

That is a very interesting point of view. In fact, I am thinking in something quite similar: 440 (29.5%) / 1.05 billion (70.5%)

[Dale Cooper]

Tickets went on sale today in Sweden. It seems it will easily beat DHII 5-day record, probably do at least 8m. It's going to be huge.

Edited December 3, 2012 by Dale Cooper

[Rovex]

Very happy that one of my local multiplexes has just announced its showing in HFR 3D. Its only 300 yards from my house! Its the only one within about 80 miles to do so.

Edited December 3, 2012 by Rovex

[peludo]

Tickets went on sale today in Sweden. It seems it will easily beat DHII 5-day record, probably do at least 8m. It's going to be huge.

8 million in 5 days in Sweden ? What total are you expecting there? I know LOTR numbers were insane there. In fact, ROTK was similar to Mamma mia! in US$. Edited December 3, 2012 by peludo

[Dale Cooper]

Don't know how it will be recieved, so hard to say how the legs will be. But if it gets anywhere close to ROTK in terms of ticket-sales, I guess at least 30m, possibly 35m.

Edited December 3, 2012 by Dale Cooper

[peludo]

Don't know how it will be recieved, so hard to say how the legs will be. But if it gets anywhere close to ROTK in terms of ticket-sales, I guess at least 30m, possibly 35m.

That would be crazy . I was thinking in a similar number to ROTK (about 25 million), with a drop in attendance, compensated with inflation and 3D.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

The DOM/OD split should be close to 25/75

[peludo]

The DOM/OD split should be close to 25/75

I understand you are referring to DOM/OS. With that ratio we would have this ranges:

DOM/OS/WW

300/900/1.2b

350/1.05b/1.4b

400/1.2b/1.6b

450/1.35b/1.8b

I think 25/75 is a bit low for DOM / high for OS with the Chinese release calendar. I am thinking more in 30/70.